Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for JD Group [4][6]. Core Insights - JD Group's Q3 2025 revenue reached 299.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1]. - The company's retail segment achieved revenue of 250.6 billion RMB, growing 11.4% year-on-year, with operating profit rising 27.6% to 14.8 billion RMB [2]. - New business, including food delivery, saw a significant revenue increase of 214% year-on-year, indicating strong growth potential [3]. - JD Logistics reported revenue of 55.1 billion RMB, up 24.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.02 billion RMB [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 5.8 billion RMB, a decline of 56% year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 1.9%, down 3.2 percentage points [1]. - The report forecasts revenues for 2025-2027 to be 1,339.9 billion RMB, 1,463.1 billion RMB, and 1,586.5 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 15.6%, 9.2%, and 8.4% respectively [4][5]. Business Segments - JD Retail's user base surpassed 700 million, with significant growth in shopping frequency during the "11.11" shopping festival, where the number of ordering users increased by 40% and order volume by nearly 60% [2]. - The logistics segment is expanding internationally, with new services launched in Saudi Arabia and the U.S., enhancing JD's integrated supply chain capabilities [3]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12 for 2025, 8 for 2026, and 6 for 2027 [4][5].

Core Insights - JD.com is adopting a unique approach in the food delivery market by launching the "Qixian Xiaochu" platform, focusing on quality dining and food safety through 24-hour kitchen live streaming and transparent kitchens [1][6][15] - The innovative model of Qixian Xiaochu is expected to reshape the food delivery industry by shifting the focus from speed and traffic to quality supply chains, promoting a healthier and sustainable ecosystem [1][5] Group 1: Performance and Impact - Since its launch during the JD 11.11 event, Qixian Xiaochu has shown outstanding performance in traffic and sales, significantly boosting orders for nearby quality restaurants by over 12% [4][14] - Qixian Xiaochu has attracted a large number of consumers seeking high-quality takeout, creating a flow-through effect that benefits surrounding restaurants [5][14] Group 2: Food Safety and Quality Assurance - The platform emphasizes food safety by using a well-established supply chain, ensuring that all ingredients are carefully selected and undergo strict quality control [9][10] - The introduction of 24-hour kitchen live streaming allows consumers to see the cooking process, enhancing trust and safety perceptions [6][15] Group 3: Business Model and Collaboration - Qixian Xiaochu employs a "dish partner" model, allowing restaurant brands and individual chefs to focus on recipe development while JD.com handles store operations [10][11] - The platform aims to collaborate with small and medium-sized businesses by providing supply chain and marketing support, helping them compete against "ghost kitchens" [11][14] Group 4: Future Developments - Qixian Xiaochu plans to expand its "transparent kitchen" concept through partnerships with hotels, creating new consumption scenarios and enhancing customer experience [14][15] - The initiative is positioned as a leader in transforming the food delivery industry, aiming to restore consumer trust and prioritize food safety [15]

Core Viewpoint - JD.com has positioned itself in the food delivery market with a focus on "quality delivery," implementing stringent review standards for merchants [1] Group 1: Merchant Onboarding Standards - Since entering the food delivery market, JD.com has maintained a merchant approval rate of only 40% [1] - The platform requires merchants to provide comprehensive qualification documents for review [1] Group 2: Review Mechanisms - JD.com employs multiple review mechanisms, including photo re-inspection, regular on-site inspections, and video verification to ensure authenticity [1] - These measures are aimed at eliminating "ghost deliveries" from the platform [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of the food delivery industry in China, highlighting the shift from a price war to a value war, with a focus on quality delivery services and the strategic positioning of JD.com in this evolving landscape [3][8][54]. Group 1: Industry Changes - The food delivery market has transitioned from being dominated by one major player to a three-way competition among major platforms, with Taobao Flash Purchase/Ele.me leading at 34.2%, followed closely by JD.com at 33.5%, and Meituan at 28.9% [8][10]. - The recent subsidy wars have led to a significant decline in the profitability of many restaurants, with some reporting a drop in actual income of over 15% [3][5]. - The emergence of "ghost kitchens," which operate without dine-in services and often rely on lower costs, has contributed to the challenges faced by traditional restaurants in the delivery sector [17][19]. Group 2: JD.com's Strategy - JD.com has opted not to participate in the aggressive subsidy wars, instead focusing on building a robust supply chain and digital tools to enhance long-term competitiveness [24][54]. - The company has introduced the "Seven Fresh Kitchen" initiative, investing 1 billion yuan to partner with restaurants and establish a network of quality delivery options, aiming to address the issues posed by ghost kitchens [14][27]. - JD.com has implemented a commission reduction strategy, promising that merchants who join before May 1, 2025, will not pay any commissions for the year, with future commissions capped at 5% [24][54]. Group 3: Quality Delivery Focus - Research indicates that 81.3% of users are willing to pay extra for quality delivery services that ensure safety and compliance, with 43.8% willing to pay an additional 2 yuan per order [35][40]. - The definition of "quality delivery" is increasingly centered around safety, compliance, and transparency, moving beyond just taste [38][40]. - JD.com has successfully leveraged its reputation for quality and trust, with 21% of users choosing JD.com for its focus on quality delivery and 20.3% for its brand reliability [40][42]. Group 4: Cross-Category Synergy - JD.com's food delivery service has created significant cross-category consumption synergies, with users engaging in multiple product categories after ordering food [46][48]. - The integration of food delivery into JD.com's broader ecosystem has resulted in a notable increase in user engagement across various product categories, enhancing overall customer retention [50][51]. - The collaboration between food delivery and JD.com's other services is expected to deepen, further unlocking the value of the JD.com ecosystem [53].

Core Insights - The takeaway from the report by iResearch is that the subsidy war in the food delivery market is receding, leading to a significant shift in user preferences and consumption habits, resulting in a new competitive landscape where the market share is expected to be evenly distributed among Taobao, JD, and Meituan [1][3] Market Dynamics - The overall food delivery market is projected to see Taobao's flash purchase and Ele.me slightly leading with a 34.2% market share, followed closely by JD's quick delivery at 33.5%, and Meituan at 28.9% [1][3] - The competition among the three major players has reached a stalemate, indicating a long-term battle rather than a quick resolution [3][4] User Behavior Changes - The intense subsidy competition has reshaped consumer behavior, with a shift in focus from price to product quality and overall service experience [5][13] - iResearch found that 81.3% of users are willing to pay extra for a combination of "physical stores + high-rated merchants + timely delivery + compensation guarantees" [6] User Segmentation - The food delivery market has seen the emergence of three distinct user segments: - Price-driven users (49.3%) who are sensitive to price changes - Value-driven users (26.8%) who prioritize quality and experience - Opportunistic users (19.5%) who only order during promotions [6][7] Competitive Landscape - In the "ordinary delivery" segment, Taobao's flash purchase and Ele.me lead with 54.4%, while in the "quality delivery" segment, Taobao and Ele.me lead with 43.4%, followed by JD at 39.8% [8][10] - JD has established a reputation for "quality delivery," which has positively influenced user preferences, with 59.5% of users indicating they will increase their frequency of ordering from JD [10][11] Platform Strategies - The competition has evolved from a focus on traffic acquisition to a deeper emphasis on business synergy and comprehensive capabilities [19][22] - JD's food delivery service has quickly gained traction, contributing to overall user growth and cross-category purchasing behavior [20][21] Conclusion - The decline of the subsidy bubble has led to a more rational consumer base that values product quality and service experience, indicating a shift in the competitive dynamics of the food delivery market [13][22]

Core Insights - The "subsidy war" in the food delivery industry is losing momentum, leading to a more rational consumer choice and a shift in market competition logic [1][6] - The market is now characterized by a "three-way split," with 34.2% of consumers choosing Taobao Shanguo, 33.5% opting for JD Delivery, and 28.9% selecting Meituan, indicating a balanced market structure [1][3] Market Dynamics - Historically, the food delivery market exhibited a "strong vs. weak" competition, with Meituan dominating due to early user accumulation, while Ele.me struggled to close the market share gap [3] - The end of the subsidy war has shifted competition from "price wars" to "value competition," providing opportunities for new entrants like JD Delivery to establish a foothold [3][6] - JD Delivery has focused on "differentiated competition," leading the quality food delivery segment with a 35.6% future order expectation share, appealing to 26.8% of "value-driven users" who prioritize delivery efficiency and food quality [3][8] Consumer Preferences - Consumer demands for "quality food delivery" have evolved beyond taste to include safety, compliance, and transparency, with trust in merchants becoming a key differentiator [4][6] - Key factors distinguishing "quality food delivery" from regular options include "physical store assurance" (12.5%), "complete qualifications" (11.8%), and "regular hygiene checks" (10.9%) [4] Industry Trends - As consumer expectations for quality rise, the food delivery industry is transitioning from "extensive growth" to "high-quality development," focusing on service upgrades and food safety [6][14] - The shift in consumer behavior due to the subsidy war has led to increased app usage, with Meituan's daily app usage growth at 16.66% in April, followed by JD's 23.87% in May, indicating a reshuffling of market dynamics [10][12] Competitive Landscape - The competition is now defined by the platforms' comprehensive capabilities, with JD and Taobao showing stronger cross-category purchasing tendencies compared to Meituan [12][14] - The cycle of "ordering-cross-buying-retention" reinforces high-frequency consumption and creates synergies with other product categories, marking a shift from "subsidy internal competition" to "value competition" [14]

Core Insights - The "subsidy war" in the food delivery industry is losing momentum, leading to a more rational consumer choice and a shift in market competition logic [1][6] - The overall food delivery market has reached a "three-way split" with 34.2% of consumers choosing Taobao Shanguo, 33.5% opting for JD Delivery, and 28.9% selecting Meituan, indicating a balanced market structure [1][3] Market Dynamics - Historically, the food delivery market exhibited a "strong vs. weak" competitive landscape, with Meituan dominating early on while Ele.me struggled to close the gap [3] - The end of the subsidy war has shifted competition from "price wars" to "value competition," providing opportunities for new entrants like JD Delivery to establish a foothold [3][6] - JD Delivery has focused on "differentiated competition," leading to a 35.6% expected share in the quality delivery segment, making it the preferred platform for 26.8% of "value-driven users" [3][8] Consumer Preferences - Consumers' demands for "quality delivery" have evolved beyond taste to include safety, compliance, and transparency, with trust in merchants becoming a key differentiator [4][6] - The top three factors distinguishing "quality delivery" from "ordinary delivery" are merchant trust systems, including "physical store guarantees" (12.5%), "complete qualifications" (11.8%), and "regular health inspections" (10.9%) [4] Industry Trends - As consumer expectations for quality rise, the food delivery industry is transitioning from "extensive growth" to "high-quality development," focusing on service upgrades and safety assurances [6][12] - The competition will increasingly center on who can effectively address consumer demands for safety, transparency, and reliability [6][14] Platform Performance - In terms of app usage, Meituan saw a 16.66% increase in daily usage in April, while JD led the industry with a 23.87% growth in May, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [10][12] - Consumers are more likely to engage in cross-category purchases on platforms, with JD and Taobao showing stronger capabilities in retaining users for additional product categories compared to Meituan [12][14] Conclusion - The transition from "subsidy competition" to "value competition" reflects a fundamental shift in consumer needs, emphasizing quality, trust, and service as the new battlegrounds for market players [14]

Core Insights - The report analyzes the changes in the food delivery and instant retail industry in the post-subsidy era, focusing on user behavior shifts, collaborative consumption value, and the rise in quality demand [1] User Behavior Changes - The subsidy war has significantly lowered users' price anchors, with 26.3% of users now spending 20 yuan or less per order, compared to 14.5% before the war [2][11] - High-frequency reliance on delivery services has solidified, with 60.5% of users placing orders more than three times a week, indicating a shift from occasional use to daily reliance [2][15] - Users are increasingly prioritizing quality, with 81.3% willing to pay a premium for guaranteed quality experiences [2][58] Market Structure Changes - The market is evolving into a "three-way split," with users divided into price-driven (49.3%) and value-driven (26.8%) segments, leading to a competitive landscape among platforms [3][26] - JD.com is expected to surpass competitors in the quality delivery segment, with a projected 35.6% of future orders, driven by user trust in its brand [3][69] Collaborative Consumption Value - The competition has shifted from mere traffic acquisition to deep collaboration capabilities among platforms, with food delivery acting as a "super entry point" for high-frequency users [4] - JD.com and Taobao have successfully integrated food delivery into their broader e-commerce ecosystems, enhancing user retention and value [4][43] User Segmentation and Choices - Users have differentiated into three groups based on price sensitivity: high price-sensitive (49.3%), low price-sensitive (26.8%), and medium price-sensitive (19.5%) [26][30] - Price increases have prompted users to reassess their consumption priorities, leading to a clear segmentation of user behavior [24][29] Platform Dynamics - New business launches have coincided with user migration, resulting in significant user growth for JD.com and Taobao, while Meituan's growth has stagnated [31][34] - JD.com has seen a 13.3% increase in monthly active users, while Meituan's growth was only 2.2% during the same period [34] Quality Demand and User Trust - Users define quality delivery by safety, compliance, and transparency, with a strong preference for platforms that can assure these factors [51][52] - The willingness to pay for trust is evident, with over 80% of users ready to pay extra for quality guarantees [58][60] Competitive Landscape and Future Outlook - The market is expected to stabilize into a three-way competition among JD.com, Taobao, and Meituan, with a focus on quality delivery as the key differentiator [67][69] - JD.com is positioned to capture a significant share of the quality delivery market, with 59.5% of users indicating an increase in usage [71][87] Conclusion - The industry is transitioning from a focus on traffic to a focus on user value, with quality becoming the critical lever for market success [88][92] - Platforms must understand and operate within the differentiated user segments to maximize their competitive advantage [90][91]

Group 1 - The 2025 China International Service Trade Fair (CIFTIS) was held in Beijing from September 10 to September 14, showcasing JD's local life services including JD Takeout, Seven Fresh Kitchen, and JD Travel [1] - Seven Fresh Kitchen, as a "cooperative quality catering production platform," won the "Service Consumption Demonstration Case Enterprise" award, highlighting its innovative supply chain and the pioneering "dish partner" model [1] - JD's takeout business, launched in March 2025, has expanded to cover 350 cities with daily orders exceeding 25 million and over 150,000 quality restaurant partnerships [1] Group 2 - Seven Fresh Kitchen officially launched in July 2025, focusing on "freshly cooked and transparent kitchen" with a dual model of "takeout + self-pickup" to address challenges in the traditional catering industry [2] - The "dish partner" model allows chefs to earn a guaranteed minimum of 1 million yuan per dish, promoting sustainable industry development [2] - Seven Fresh Food MALL, JD's first physical infrastructure brand in the catering sector, opened its first store in Harbin, featuring live kitchen broadcasts and a unique "cross-store selection" takeout service [2] Group 3 - JD Travel leverages JD's robust supply chain and digital technology to offer services across transportation, hotel accommodation, and vacation packages, covering nearly 40,000 domestic hotels and over 1 million international hotels [3] - JD Home Services, launched in 2021, has expanded its offerings to include specialized services like maternity care and organization, aiming to enhance user experience [3] - The home service business currently operates in over 70 cities, with plans to expand to over 100 cities by the end of 2025 [3]

Core Insights - Dazhong Dianping has announced the "relaunch" of its quality takeout service, utilizing a self-developed large model to eliminate non-authentic review data, thereby providing reliable decision-making for users [1] Group 1: Service Overview - The quality takeout service will deliver high-rated dishes from popular restaurants, including those that typically require reservations or are located in luxury hotels, directly to users' homes within 30 minutes [3] - The initial launch includes over 1 million high-rated dining merchants, leveraging user reviews and Meituan's delivery system to ensure quality [3] - As of September 10, the service has incorporated over 1,400 restaurants from the 2025 "Must-Eat List," nearly 30 restaurants from the 2025 "Black Pearl" list, and around 1,500 high-star hotel restaurants [3] Group 2: Historical Context and Data - Dazhong Dianping launched its takeout service in 2014 and introduced the "quality takeout" concept in 2016, later collaborating with Meituan in 2022 to filter high-rated dining options for takeout [4] - In the past year, Dazhong Dianping has accumulated 363 million authentic reviews, with daily "photo reviews" viewing increasing by 11% year-on-year, and the rate of users prioritizing negative reviews rising by 36% [4]