Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations, influenced by the stock market, differences in Fed rate - cut expectations, and increased global trade uncertainties. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase; PPI (monthly) has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.15% month - on - month increase; M2 year - on - year is 8.20%, a 2.38% decrease; manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, a 1.61% decrease [10]. - The US dollar index is 100.20, with a 0.01% increase; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1059, a 0.11% decrease; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.45, a 2.12% increase; DR007 is 1.47, a 2.05% increase; R007 is 1.51, a 1.24% decrease; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, a 0.08% decrease; AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, a 0.08% decrease [10]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific data or analysis content provided, only figure names such as the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, etc. [12][15][18][24] 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation No specific data or analysis content provided, only figure names such as Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), bank - to - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and local government bond issuance [27][34][35] 4. Spread Overview No specific data or analysis content provided, only figure names related to the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [37][38][40] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data or analysis content provided, only figure names such as the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate [40][42] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data or analysis content provided, only figure names such as the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate [52] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data or analysis content provided, only figure names such as the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate [59] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data or analysis content provided, only figure names such as the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate [66] Market Analysis - **Macro - aspect**: On October 27, the central bank restarted the open - market treasury bond trading operation; on October 30, China and the US reached a three - aspect consensus. The State Council Tariff Commission announced to continue suspending the 24% additional tariff rate on the US for one year and retain the 10% rate. In October, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year [1]. - **Funding - aspect**: From January to October 2025, fiscal revenue had a mild recovery, expenditure rhythm slowed down, and the fund shrank while special bonds issuance slowed. General public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 2%. At the end of October, social financing and credit expanded at a low level, government bond issuance was strong, and corporate and household financing demand was weak. On November 24, 2025, the central bank conducted a 338.7 billion yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.4%. The main repurchase rates showed a recent decline [2]. - **Market - aspect**: On November 24, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.42 yuan, 105.89 yuan, 108.51 yuan, and 115.76 yuan respectively, with price change rates of 0.01%, 0.03%, 0.06%, and 0.15%. The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was - 0.048 yuan, - 0.009 yuan, - 0.018 yuan, and - 0.004 yuan respectively [3]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: With the decline of repurchase rates and the fluctuation of treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is neutral [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of further loose monetary policy is not strong, and the bond market lacks short - term drivers [2]. - The money market was tight at the beginning of last week and then loosened. The weighted money interest rate increased marginally. Next week, there will be a large maturity of reverse repurchase in the open market, 90 billion yuan of MLF will mature, and government bond payments may reach 20 - 30 billion yuan. The central bank is likely to increase reverse repurchase and renew MLF in time, but the money interest rate may fluctuate at the end of the month [5]. - Overseas, the trading of the US interest - rate cut expectation has changed. The expectation of a December interest - rate cut has declined. After adjustment, there may still be trading opportunities [5]. - The bond market adjusted last week, especially the 30 - year variety. The short - term bond market is in a box - shock stage. The driving factors that may break the shock in the future include the implementation of the redemption fee new rule, the announcement of the central bank's bond - buying scale at the end of the month, and the release of November economic data. Unilateral strategies suggest range operation, and short - position investors can speed up the position - shifting pace next week [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Price Changes**: Last week, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract 2512 changed - 0.51% to 115.57, the 10 - year main contract 2512 changed 0.01% to 108.43, the 5 - year 2512 changed - 0.02% to 105.86, and the 2 - year 2512 changed 0.01% to 102.46 [19]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Last week, the trading volume of each variety significantly recovered, and the progress of position - shifting and contract - changing accelerated. The open interest of each variety decreased. For example, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had 176,275 open interests, a change of - 3026 hands compared with last week [26]. - **Basis and Implied Spread**: As of November 21, the basis of TL2512, T2512, TF2512, and TS2512 were 0.14, 0.08, 0.02, 0.00 respectively, with corresponding changes of 0, - 0.03, 0.01, 0 compared with last week. The implied spreads were 0.33BP, 0.27BP, 0.89BP, 0.09BP respectively, with corresponding changes of 0.1BP, - 0.25BP, 0.58BP, 0.12BP compared with last week [30]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of TL, T, TF, TS contracts 2512 - 2603 were 0.2, 0.19, - 0.05, 0.05 respectively, with corresponding changes of - 0.03, - 0.04, - 0.05, - 0.01 compared with last week. The inter - period spreads are expected to narrow, and it is recommended that long - position investors shift positions earlier and short - position investors later [34]. - **Cross - variety Spread**: The inter - period spreads of varieties within 10 years mostly narrowed last week, while the spreads between the 30 - year variety and the short - end widened, showing a differentiated feature [48]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Fundamental Tracking - **October PMI**: Slightly lower than expected. The manufacturing PMI was 49.0, a decrease of 0.8 points month - on - month. The decline was slightly larger than the seasonal average. The construction industry PMI fell 0.2 percentage points to 49.1%, but the new order and business activity expectation indexes rebounded. The service industry PMI rose 0.1 percentage points to 50.2% [52][60][64]. - **October Inflation Data**: Continued to improve, slightly higher than expected. CPI turned positive year - on - year, rising 0.5 percentage points to 0.2%. PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2% [72]. - **October Financial Data**: Weaker than expected. The new social financing scale was 81.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 59.7 billion yuan. The new loan scale was - 2.01 billion yuan, a year - on - year decline of 31.66 billion yuan [78]. - **October Export**: The year - on - year growth was - 1.1%, lower than the cumulative year - on - year of the first three quarters (6.1%) and the third - quarter year - on - year (6.6%). Exports to most regions slowed down, and the export of labor - intensive consumer goods declined [79][83]. - **October Industrial Added Value**: Declined. The month - on - month seasonally adjusted was 0.17%, significantly lower than the previous value of 0.65%. The production of some products decreased, and the reasons may include the transfer of export decline, the limited impact of policy - based financial instruments on construction products, and the negative impact of "anti - involution" on new energy products [90][96]. - **October Consumption**: Most categories improved, but the growth rate of high - base durable goods declined. The retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles increased 4.0% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 3.2% [99]. - **October Fixed - Asset Investment**: Remained weak. The decline expanded, with the cumulative year - on - year changing from - 0.5% to - 1.7%, and the corresponding month - on - year was - 11.2% [111]. - **Consumption High - frequency Data**: Real - estate sales declined year - on - year, and automobile sales growth slowed down. Metro passenger volume and domestic flight numbers showed different trends [112]. - **Export High - frequency Data**: Although the export growth rate declined, it was resilient. The export container freight rate index rebounded in November, and the port throughput increased year - on - year [121][135]. 3.3. Policy - related Tracking - **15th Five - Year Plan Suggestions vs. 14th Five - Year Plan Suggestions**: The 15th Five - Year Plan pays more attention to total demand issues, emphasizes scientific and technological self - reliance, and has more specific goals in promoting consumption. It also has new requirements in industrial development, scientific and technological innovation, expanding domestic demand, system reform, opening - up, green development, and people's livelihood protection [145][146][147]. - **Recent Policy Meetings and Measures**: The State Council has made arrangements for the "two new" policies, and relevant departments have issued policies such as promoting urban high - quality development, increasing special bond issuance, and accelerating the investment of policy - based financial instruments [149]. - **Central Bank's Bond - trading Operations**: The central bank will resume open - market treasury bond trading operations. The net investment of various monetary policy tools in the current period shows different situations [150][151]. - **Trade War Progress**: Since 2025, the trade war and tariff game have intensified. The United States has continuously increased tariffs on Chinese imports, and China has carried out counter - measures. There was a brief easing in May, but the US tariff policy has encountered domestic resistance [154][156].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations. Affected by the stock market and uncertainties in global trade and Fed rate - cut expectations, short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase, while China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.64 - trillion - yuan month - on - month increase and a 0.15% month - on - month change rate; M2 year - on - year is 8.20%, down 0.20% month - on - month; Manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, down 0.80% month - on - month [10]. - The US dollar index is 100.13, up 0.54 with a 0.54% month - on - month change rate; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1109, down 0.002 with a - 0.03% month - on - month change rate; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.49, down 0.03 with a - 2.04% month - on - month change rate; DR007 is 1.51, down 0.01 with a - 0.71% month - on - month change rate; R007 is 1.51, down 0.02 with a - 1.24% month - on - month change rate; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with a 0.00 change and a - 0.09% month - on - month change rate; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a 0.00 change and a - 0.09% month - on - month change rate [10]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures on the closing price trend, price change rate, precipitation funds trend, position ratio, net position ratio, long - short position ratio, spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds, and treasury bond issuance of treasury bond futures main contracts [12][16][19][23]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures on Shibor interest rate trend, inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, local bond issuance, inter - period spread trend of treasury bond futures, and spread between spot bond term spread and futures cross - variety [28][30][32]. 4. Spread Overview No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures on the spread between spot bond term spread and futures cross - variety such as (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [37][38][41]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract, TS main contract IRR and funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [40][42][51]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract, TF main contract IRR and funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [53][57]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures on the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract, T main contract IRR and funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [60][61]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures on the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract, TL main contract IRR and funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [67][70][73]. Strategy - Unilateral: With the decline of repurchase interest rates and the fluctuation of treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is neutral [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the stock market, the decline in risk appetite is beneficial to the bond market. Meanwhile, the divergence in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the increase in global trade uncertainties add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3] - Repo rates are rising, and Treasury futures prices are fluctuating, with a neutral outlook for the 2512 contract. For arbitrage, attention should be paid to the decline in the basis of the 2512 contract. For hedging, as there is medium - term adjustment pressure, short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.20%, and China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.10% [9] - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 0.64 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.15%; M2 year - on - year is 8.20%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.20% and a decline rate of 2.38%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% and a decline rate of 1.61% [10] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 99.59, with a month - on - month increase of 0.05 and a growth rate of 0.05%; The offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1132, with a month - on - month increase of 0.008 and a growth rate of 0.12%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.52, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.26%; DR007 is 1.52, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.02%; R007 is 1.51, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of 1.24%; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.27%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.27% [10] 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On November 18, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.49 yuan, 105.92 yuan, 108.50 yuan, and 116.53 yuan respectively, with daily price changes of 0.01%, 0.03%, 0.03%, and 0.06% respectively [3] - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was - 0.025 yuan, - 0.044 yuan, - 0.016 yuan, and - 0.091 yuan respectively [3] 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - From January to October 2025, fiscal revenue showed a mild recovery, with general public budget revenue increasing by 0.8% year - on - year. Tax revenue improved for eight consecutive months, but non - tax revenue dragged down the overall growth rate. General public budget expenditure increased by only 2% year - on - year, and the growth rate slowed down for three consecutive months [2] - At the end of October, social financing and credit expanded at a low level, government bond issuance remained strong, and the financing demand of enterprises and residents was weak. M1 declined, and the M2 - M1 gap widened, indicating weak business vitality in the real economy and a return of current deposits to time deposits [2] - On November 18, 2025, the central bank conducted 407.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2] - The main term repo rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.525%, 1.518%, 1.550%, and 1.520% respectively, and the repo rates have recently rebounded [2] 3.4 Spread Overview No specific text - based summary information is provided, but there are multiple figures related to various spreads, such as the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [7][8] 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary information is provided, but there are figures related to the implied interest rate of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [7][37][48] 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary information is provided, but there are figures related to the implied interest rate of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [7][50][54] 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary information is provided, but there are figures related to the implied yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [7][57][59] 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary information is provided, but there are figures related to the implied yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [7][64][70]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is suppressed by the rising risk appetite driven by the strong stock market, and the delay of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the increasing global trade uncertainty add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase, while China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 0.64 trillion yuan (+0.15%); M2 year - on - year growth is 8.20%, down 0.20% (-2.38%); the manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, down 0.80% (-1.61%) [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 99.54, up 0.25 (+0.25%); the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 7.1050, up 0.011 (+0.16%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.51, up 0.05 (+3.13%); DR007 is 1.52, up 0.06 (+3.84%); R007 is 1.51, down 0.02 (-1.24%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, up 0.00 (-0.16%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, up 0.00 (-0.16%) [10]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Price Changes**: On November 17, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.48 yuan, 105.91 yuan, 108.49 yuan, and 116.45 yuan respectively. Their price changes were 0.03%, 0.05%, 0.09%, and 0.33% respectively [2]. - **Net Basis Spreads**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.009 yuan, - 0.001 yuan, 0.014 yuan, and - 0.332 yuan respectively [2]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - **Fiscal Situation**: From January to October 2025, the general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with tax revenue improving for eight consecutive months, but non - tax revenue dragging down the overall growth rate. The general public budget expenditure increased by only 2% year - on - year, slowing down for three consecutive months [2]. - **Central Bank Operations**: On November 17, 2025, the central bank conducted 283 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - **Money Market Interest Rates**: The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.508%, 1.514%, 1.550%, and 1.520% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently rebounded [2]. 4. Spread Overview There is no specific data - based content provided in the given text for this section. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report may provide data on the implied interest rate, IRR, and basis spread trends of the two - year Treasury bond futures through relevant figures, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [37][40][48]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report may provide data on the implied interest rate, IRR, and basis spread trends of the five - year Treasury bond futures through relevant figures, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [50][54]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report may provide data on the implied yield, IRR, and basis spread trends of the ten - year Treasury bond futures through relevant figures, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [57][59]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report may provide data on the implied yield, IRR, and basis spread trends of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures through relevant figures, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [64][67][70]. Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: With the rebound of repurchase rates and the fluctuating prices of Treasury bond futures, the 2512 contract is neutral [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the basis spread of the 2512 contract [4]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side traders can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. It is influenced by the stock market, the continued expectation of a Fed rate cut, and the uncertainty of global trade, which adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase, while China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9]. - The social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.15% month - on - month increase. M2 year - on - year is 8.20%, with a - 2.38% change. The manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a - 1.61% change [10]. - The dollar index is 99.17, with a - 0.31% change. The offshore dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1021, with a - 0.26% change. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.47%, with no change. DR007 is 1.48%, with a - 0.82% change. R007 is 1.51%, with a - 1.24% change. The 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58%, with a + 0.16% change. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a + 0.16% change [10]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On November 13, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.46 yuan, 105.89 yuan, 108.41 yuan, and 116.13 yuan respectively, with price changes of - 0.01%, - 0.08%, - 0.10%, and - 0.26% [2]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.002 yuan, 0.018 yuan, 0.025 yuan, and - 0.099 yuan respectively [2]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - In the first half of the year, the fiscal operation was generally stable, with revenue gradually recovering and key expenditures effectively guaranteed. Ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and special bonds were accelerating their implementation. Looking forward, positive fiscal tools will continue to be used to balance stable growth, people's livelihood protection, and risk prevention [2]. - On November 13, 2025, the central bank conducted 190 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - The main term repurchase rates 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.315%, 1.474%, 1.500%, and 1.518% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. 4. Spread Overview No specific summarized information provided other than various spread - related chart descriptions. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific summarized information provided other than chart descriptions such as the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the relationship with the treasury bond yield to maturity. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific summarized information provided other than chart descriptions such as the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the relationship with the treasury bond yield to maturity. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific summarized information provided other than chart descriptions such as the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the relationship with the treasury bond yield to maturity. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific summarized information provided other than chart descriptions such as the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the relationship with the treasury bond yield to maturity. Strategy - For unilateral trading, with the decline of repurchase rates and the oscillation of treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is neutral [4]. - For arbitrage, attention should be paid to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - For hedging, there is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the support of the capital market, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. However, the strong stock market drove up risk appetite, suppressing the bond market. Uncertainties in the Fed's further interest - rate cuts and global trade also added uncertainties to foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market oscillated between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's monthly CPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's monthly PPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9] - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 433.66 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.40 trillion yuan (+0.56%); M2 year - on - year growth was 8.80% with no month - on - month change; the manufacturing PMI was 49.40%, up 0.10% month - on - month (+0.20%) [9] - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 97.33, down 0.33 (-0.34%); the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1136, up 0.004 (+0.06%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.47, down 0.02 (-1.48%); DR007 was 1.49, down 0.02 (-1.38%); R007 was 1.51, down 0.05 (-3.26%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.58 with no change; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09 with no change [9] 3.2 Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview - Multiple charts were used to show the closing price trends, price change rates, precipitation of funds, position ratios, net position ratios, long - short position ratios, spreads between national development bonds and treasury bonds, and treasury bond issuance of treasury bond futures' main continuous contracts [11][15][22] 3.3 Money Market Capital Situation - At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 rebounded to 6% year - on - year, and the gap between them narrowed continuously, indicating enhanced capital activity and improved corporate business vitality. In the first eight months, RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan, and the cumulative social financing increment was 26.56 trillion yuan, with a high proportion of government bond financing, reflecting weak medium - and long - term corporate financing demand. Deposit increased by 8.6% year - on - year, and both credit and deposit growth rates declined slightly, indicating weakened bank asset expansion momentum and the economy in a weak recovery stage. On September 22, 2025, the central bank conducted a 240.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.4%. The main term repurchase rates (1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M) were 1.427%, 1.466%, 1.675%, and 1.550% respectively, and the repurchase rates had declined recently [2] - Multiple charts were used to show the Shibor interest rate trends, inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trends, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and local bond issuance [26][32] 3.4 Spread Overview - Multiple charts were used to show the inter - period spread trends of various treasury bond futures, and the term spreads of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures [30][34][35] 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts were used to show the term spreads of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures, the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [39][40][48] 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts were used to show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [50][54] 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts were used to show the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [57][59] 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts were used to show the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [64][69] 3.9 Strategies - **Unilateral**: With the decline of repurchase rates, the prices of treasury bond futures oscillated. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the decline of the basis of the 2512 contract. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can moderately hedge with far - month contracts [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Treasury bond futures continued to pull back last week, with the ultra-long end performing weakly. The report maintains the view that the medium-term general direction is oscillating with a bearish bias [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - Treasury bond futures contracts pulled back continuously on a weekly basis, with the ultra-long end performing weakly [6]. - The Treasury bond futures market shows a differentiated characteristic of short - end stability and intensified long - end volatility, and the shape of the yield curve has changed significantly. The short - end Treasury bond futures main contracts have small fluctuations in open interest and trading volume, indicating light trading but strong price resilience. The trading volume of 30 - year Treasury bond futures has increased significantly, indicating intensified long - end selling pressure and heated long - short games. The differentiation between short - end stability and long - end volatility reflects the market's consensus on short - term liquidity easing but differences in the economic recovery slope and policy easing rhythm. The steepening trend of the yield curve continues [8]. 3.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking No specific content summary provided in the text other than the section title and source information [10]. 3.3. Seat Analysis - Daily changes in net long positions by institutional type: private funds decreased by 6.67%, foreign capital decreased by 0.51%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 1.51%. Weekly changes: private funds decreased by 5.46%, foreign capital increased by 14.04%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 13.74% [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report Recently, the recovery of risk appetite has suppressed the bond market. Meanwhile, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the rising global trade uncertainty have added to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market is oscillating between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. In the short term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's monthly CPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's monthly PPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 431.26 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 1.04 trillion yuan (+0.24%); M2 year - on - year growth was 8.80%, up 0.50% (+6.02%); the manufacturing PMI was 49.40%, up 0.10% (+0.20%) [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 97.82, up 0.06 (+0.06%); the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1198, up 0.001 (+0.02%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.45, down 0.02 (-1.23%); DR007 was 1.48, up 0.00 (-0.18%); R007 was 1.51, down 0.05 (-3.26%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.57, up 0.00 (+0.00%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, up 0.00 (+0.00%) [11]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market The report includes figures on the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various treasury bond futures varieties, the trend of the funds settled in various treasury bond futures varieties, the proportion of open interest of various treasury bond futures varieties, the net open interest proportion of the top 20 in various treasury bond futures varieties, the long - short open interest ratio of the top 20 in various treasury bond futures varieties, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds, but specific data descriptions are not provided [15][17][25]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity The report presents figures on the inter - bank pledged repo transaction statistics and local government bond issuance, but specific data descriptions are not provided [28]. 4. Spread Overview The report contains figures on the inter - delivery spread trend of various treasury bond futures varieties, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures (4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 3*T - TL, 2*TS - 3*TF + T), but specific data descriptions are not provided [33][36][37]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report includes figures on the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract, but specific data descriptions are not provided [39][42][49]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report includes figures on the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract, but specific data descriptions are not provided [51][55]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report includes figures on the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract, but specific data descriptions are not provided [58][60]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report includes figures on the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract, but specific data descriptions are not provided [65][69][72]. Strategy - **Single - Side Strategy**: As the repo rate rises, the price of treasury bond futures oscillates downward [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [5]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side traders can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. Influenced by the strong stock market, the rising risk appetite suppresses the bond market. Meanwhile, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the rising global trade uncertainty add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI monthly环比 is 0.40% and同比 is 0.00%; PPI monthly环比 is - 0.20% and同比 is - 3.60% [9] - Social financing scale is 431.26 trillion yuan, with a环比 increase of 1.04 trillion yuan and a环比 change rate of 0.24%; M2同比 is 8.80%, with a环比 increase of 0.50% and a环比 change rate of 6.02%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, with a环比 increase of 0.10% and a环比 change rate of 0.20% [9] - The US dollar index is 97.69, with a环比 decrease of 0.16 and a环比 change rate of - 0.16%; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1260, with a环比 increase of 0.001 and a环比 change rate of 0.02%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.44, with a环比 decrease of 0.07 and a环比 change rate of - 4.77%; DR007 is 1.45, with a环比 decrease of 0.07 and a环比 change rate of - 4.64%; R007 is 1.67, with a环比 decrease of 0.26 and a环比 change rate of - 13.67%; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.54, with a环比 change of 0.00 and a环比 change rate of - 0.16%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a环比 change of 0.00 and a环比 change rate of - 0.16% [10] 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market The report provides multiple charts including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the precipitation of funds trend, the position ratio, the net position ratio (top 20), the long - short position ratio (top 20), the spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [13][14][16] 3. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals Multiple charts are provided, such as the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local bonds [25][31] 4. Spread Overview The report provides charts on the inter - term spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety and the term spread of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures [30][33][34] 5. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures Charts are provided on the term spread of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures, the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TS main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TS main contract [38][39][44] 6. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures Charts are provided on the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TF main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TF main contract [49][55] 7. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures Charts are provided on the implied yield and the maturity yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the T main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the T main contract [56][57][59] 8. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures Charts are provided on the implied yield and the maturity yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TL main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TL main contract [63][68] Strategies - Unilateral: As the repurchase rate falls, the price of treasury bond futures oscillates [4] - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4] - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4]