CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-07-24 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，美豆产区天气整体良好和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关口上方震 荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕冲高回落，美 豆带动和技术性震荡整理，但月进口大豆到港维持高位和现货价格弱势压制盘面，短期 或回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2900（华东），基差-195，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存99.84万吨，上周88.62万吨，环比增加12.66%，去年同期126.06万吨， 同比减少20.8%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-07-23 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡收跌，美豆产区天气整体良好和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关口上方震 荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回升，美 豆带动和技术性买盘支撑，但7月进口大豆到港维持高位和现货价格弱势压制盘面，短期 或回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2890（华东），基差-196，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存99.84万吨，上周88.62万吨，环比增加12.66%，去年同期126.06万吨， 同比减少20.8%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-07-22 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆冲高回落，美豆产区天气整体良好和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关口上方震 荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回升，美 豆带动和技术性买盘支撑，但7月进口大豆到港维持高位和现货价格弱势压制盘面，短期 或回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2890（华东），基差-179，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存99.84万吨，上周88.62万吨，环比增加12.66%，去年同期126.06万吨， 同比减少20.8%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 美豆天气变数仍存，豆类探底回升 （豆粕周报7.14-7.18） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 基本面影响因素概览 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 美国大豆部分产区天气短 | 偏多 | 美国大豆产区天气短期正 | | | 期仍有变数 | | 常。中性或偏空 | | 进口成本 | 美豆探底回升，中美关税 谈判和美豆天气仍有变数 | 偏多 | 进口成本预计维持震荡，中 性或偏空 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期转淡，油厂 | 偏空 | 需求短期偏淡，油厂开机预 | | | 压榨量维持高位 | | 计维持高位回落，偏多 | | 成交 | 下游远期备货积极性减弱 | 偏空 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-07-21 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，美豆产区天气仍有变数和技术性买盘支撑，美豆千点关口上方震 荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回升，美 豆带动和技术性买盘支撑，但7月进口大豆到港维持高位和现货价格弱势压制盘面，短期 或回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2880（华东），基差-176，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存88.62万吨，上周82.24万吨，环比增加7.76%，去年同期121.93万吨， 同比减少27.32%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-07-15 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 豆一A2509：4100至4200区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，油脂反弹带动但美国大豆产区天气良好丰产预期打压盘面，美豆 短期千点关口上方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国 内大豆震荡回升，进口大豆到港增多和新季国产大豆继续增产预期压制盘面，短期受中 美关税谈判后续和进口大豆到港增多预期交互影响。中性。 2.基差：现货4200，基差69，升水期货。偏多 3.库存:油厂大豆库存636.4万吨，上周665.87万吨，环比增减少加4.43%，去年同期571.89 万吨，同比增加11.28%。偏空 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors, including the weather in the US soybean - growing regions, Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the supply and demand of domestic soybeans and soybean meal. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, waiting for further guidance on the growth of US soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations [10][11][13]. - The soybean meal market is also in a volatile pattern. The short - term demand for soybean meal is weak, but the low inventory of oil mills and the uncertainty of US soybean weather support the price. The market is mainly focused on the impact of US soybean planting weather and Sino - US trade tariff games [10][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Tips No relevant content provided. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the good weather in US soybean - growing regions suppresses the price. The US soybean market is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. The soybean and soybean meal inventories of domestic oil mills have rebounded from low levels, and the soybean and soybean meal markets have declined due to the fall of US soybeans [13]. - The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, leading to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price. The soybean meal market is in a weak - volatile pattern [13]. - The low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal supports the short - term price. The possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - growing regions and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff wars affect the soybean meal market, which is expected to remain volatile [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertainty in US soybean - growing weather [14]. - Bearish factors: High arrival of imported soybeans in June, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in South American soybeans [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish factors: Support from the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - Bearish factors: The continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazilian soybeans, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the global soybean harvest area, output, and total supply have generally shown an upward trend. The inventory - to - consumption ratio has fluctuated, reaching 21.98% in 2024 [22]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months**: The US soybean harvest area, yield, and output have changed slightly. The期末库存 of old - crop soybeans has decreased, and the export and crushing volumes have remained relatively stable. The production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans has also shown certain trends [23]. - **US Soybean Planting and Growth Progress in 2024**: The planting, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, and other growth stages of US soybeans in 2024 are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, showing different progress [24][25][26]. - **Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in 2024/25**: The planting and harvest progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in 2024/25 are also presented, showing different rates compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [27][28][29]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided. 3.6 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand Inventory Structure) 3.6.1 US Soybean Market - The US soybean market is affected by Sino - US trade negotiations and good weather, showing a weak - volatile trend. The weather in US soybean - growing regions and the progress of Sino - US tariff wars are the main factors affecting the market [33]. - The expectation of the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has increased due to the global tariff war initiated by the US. The US soybean futures market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [33]. 3.6.2 Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - **Imported Soybean Arrival**: The arrival of imported soybeans has reached a high in June, with the peak postponed and the overall volume increasing [36]. - **Oil Mill Pressing and Inventory**: The soybean inventory of oil mills has slightly decreased, while the soybean meal inventory has continued to increase. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have increased significantly, and the demand for forward stocking has increased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has remained high, and the output of soybean meal in June has increased year - on - year [37][39][41]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction**: The downstream procurement of domestic soybean meal has slightly decreased, and the pick - up volume has declined from a high level [45]. - **Pig Farming Inventory**: The inventory of pigs and sows has increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price has rebounded recently, while the piglet price has remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has slightly increased. The profit of domestic pig farming has rebounded from a low level [46][48][52]. 3.7 Technical Analysis 3.7.1 Soybean Technical Analysis - The soybean futures market has shown narrow - range fluctuations, affected by the relatively stable trends of US soybeans and domestic soybean spot prices. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in a stage of shock adjustment, and the soybean futures market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, waiting for new guidance [65]. 3.7.2 Soybean Meal Technical Analysis - The soybean meal market has rebounded this week, affected by US soybeans and increased domestic supply. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in a technical rebound stage, but the rebound space may be limited. The soybean meal market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, waiting for further guidance on the supply - demand pattern of US soybeans and soybean meal [67]. 3.8 Next Week's Focus - The most important factors are the weather in the US soybean - growing regions, the progress of Sino - US trade relations and tariff wars, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [69]. - The secondary important factors are the domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of oil mills, and downstream procurement [70]. - The less important factors are macro - economic factors and geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Israel - Palestine conflict [70].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-07-14 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，美国大豆产区天气良好丰产预期打压盘面，美豆短期千点关口上 方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回升， 美豆带动和技术性震荡整理，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面，短期回归 区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2810（华东），基差-166，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存82.24万吨，上周69.16万吨，环比增加18.91%，去年同期108.27万吨， 同比减少34.32%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主力持仓：主力多单增加，资金流出，偏多 6.预期：美国大豆产区天气仍存变数支撑美豆盘面底部 ...

CONTENTS 目 录 2025-07-11 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆探底回升，特朗普关税战风险仍在和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关口上 方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回升， 美豆带动和技术性震荡整理，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面，短期回归 区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2790（华东），基差-164，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存82.24万吨，上周69.16万吨，环比增加18.91%，去年同期108.27万吨， 同比减少34.32%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 2025-07-10 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，美豆生长天气良好丰产预期压制盘面，美豆短期千点关口上方震 荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕探底回升，美 豆带动和技术性震荡整理，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面，短期回归区 间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2780（华东），基差-167，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存82.24万吨，上周69.16万吨，环比增加18.91%，去年同期108.27万吨， 同比减少34.32%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 ...