交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-10-10 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 ✸大豆观点和策略 豆一A2511：3900至4000区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收跌，油脂回落带动和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关口上方震荡等待中 美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区收割天气进一步指引。国内大豆震荡回升，对比进口大 豆性价比优势支撑价格，但进口大豆到港仍旧偏高和新季国产大豆增产预期压制盘面， 短期受中美关税谈判后续和进口大豆到港旺季交互影响。中性。 2.基差：现货4140，基差165，升水期货。偏多 3.库存:油厂大豆库存73.2万吨，上周731.7万吨，环比增加0.21%，去年同期689.39万吨， 同比增加6.35%。偏空 4.盘面：价格在20日均线 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **豆粕观点**：美豆震荡收涨，等待中美谈判结果和美国大豆产区收割天气指引；国内豆粕震荡回落，受菜粕带动、需求支撑和技术性整理影响，短期或回归震荡格局；美国大豆产区天气有变数支撑美豆底部，但南美大豆丰产和美国种植天气良好压制反弹，国内采购巴西大豆到港增多，豆粕M2601预计在3000至3060区间震荡 [8] - **大豆观点**：美豆震荡收涨，等待相关指引；国内大豆窄幅震荡，受美豆带动和技术性整理影响，进口大豆到港高和新季国产大豆增产预期压制盘面，短期受中美关税谈判和进口大豆到港旺季交互影响，豆一A2511预计在3900至4000区间震荡 [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Recent News - 中美关税谈判进展短期利多美豆，美盘震荡回升，未来等待美豆生长、收割及进口大豆到港和中美关税谈判后续指引 - 国内进口大豆到港量8月维持高位，油厂豆粕库存进入偏高位，豆粕短期震荡偏强，受8月美农报利多数据和菜粕上涨影响 - 国内生猪养殖利润减少使生猪补栏预期不高，但豆粕需求近期回升支撑价格，加上中美贸易谈判不确定性，豆粕回归区间震荡格局 - 国内油厂豆粕库存继续回升，豆粕短期偏强震荡，等待南美大豆产量明确和中美关税战后续指引 [12] 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **豆粕利多因素**：进口大豆到港通关缓慢；国内油厂豆粕库存尚处低位；美国大豆产区天气仍有变数 [13] - **豆粕利空因素**：国内进口大豆到港总量9月维持高位；巴西大豆收割结束，南美大豆丰产预期持续 [13] - **大豆利多因素**：进口大豆成本支撑国内大豆盘面底部；国产大豆需求回升预期支撑国内大豆价格预期 [14] - **大豆利空因素**：巴西大豆丰产预期持续，中国增加采购巴西大豆；新季国产大豆增产压制豆类价格预期 [14] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **豆粕基差**：现货2950（华东），基差 -92，贴水期货，偏空 [8] - **豆粕库存**：油厂豆粕库存113.62万吨，上周107.88万吨，环比增加5.32%，去年同期134.88万吨，同比减少15.76%，偏多 [8] - **大豆库存**：油厂大豆库存731.7万吨，上周682.53万吨，环比增加5%，去年同期689.18万吨，同比增加6.17%，偏空 [10] - **盘面情况**：豆粕和大豆价格均在20日均线下方且方向向下，偏空 [8][10] - **主力持仓**：豆粕主力多单减少，资金流入，偏多；大豆主力多单增加，资金流入，偏多 [8][10] 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the given content 3.6 Additional Information - 豆粕期货区间震荡，现货相对平稳，现货贴水小幅波动 [22] - 油厂大豆入榨量维持高位，7月豆粕产量同比增加 [24][50] - 国内中下游采购低位回升，提货量维持高位 [27] - 豆菜粕现货价差小幅波动，2601合约豆菜粕价差低位震荡 [29] - 美豆周度出口检验环比回落，同比回升 [43] - 进口大豆到港量9月高位回落，同比整体有所增长 [45] - 油厂大豆库存创出新高，豆粕库存继续增加 [46] - 油厂未执行合同低位回升，长假备货需求增多 [48] - 巴西豆进口成本跟随美豆回升，盘面利润小幅波动 [53] - 生猪存栏保持升势，母猪存栏同比持平，环比小幅回落 [55] - 生猪价格近期回归震荡，仔猪价格维持弱势 [57] - 国内大猪比例回升，生猪二次育肥成本小幅回升 [59] - 国内生猪养殖利润近期有所改善 [61]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern. The bottom of the US soybean futures is supported by uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas, but the rebound is limited by a bountiful South American harvest and good recent planting weather in the US. In China, increased imports of Brazilian soybeans also contribute to the range - bound trend [8]. - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean market is also likely to move within a range. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the bottom, while the bountiful South American harvest and the expected increase in domestic soybean production limit the upside [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal**: The M2509 contract is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3060. The fundamentals are neutral, with a negative basis, a positive inventory trend, a positive technical chart, and a positive trend in the main positions [8]. - **Soybeans**: The A2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4060 and 4160. The fundamentals are neutral, with a positive basis, a negative inventory trend, a negative technical chart, and a positive trend in the main positions [10]. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is currently good, and the US soybean futures are expected to oscillate around the 1000 - point mark [12]. - China's imported soybean arrivals remained high in July, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills continued to rise. The soybean meal market has returned to a range - bound pattern due to factors such as the uncertain weather in the US and the China - US trade negotiations [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - **Bullish**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Bearish**: High arrivals of imported soybeans in July, a bountiful South American soybean harvest, and good planting weather in the US [13]. Soybeans - **Bullish**: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Bearish**: Bountiful South American harvest, increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Soybean Prices**: The report provides price data for soybean meal and soybeans from July 30 to August 7, including futures and spot prices [15][17]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are presented, showing changes in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory [31][32]. - **Sowing and Growth Progress**: Sowing, growth, and harvesting progress data for soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025 are provided, which can help analyze supply expectations [33][34][35]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal and Soybean Positions**: The report does not provide specific position data but mentions that the main long positions in soybean meal have increased while funds have flowed out, and the main long positions in soybeans have decreased with funds flowing out [8][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern. The bottom of the US soybean futures is supported by uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas, but the rebound is limited by the good planting weather recently and the bumper harvest in South America. In China, the increase in the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans also affects the domestic soybean meal market. The soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 2980 and 3040 [8]. - The domestic soybean market is also in a range - bound situation. The bottom of the domestic soybean futures is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, but the rebound is restricted by the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. The soybean A2509 is expected to oscillate between 4060 and 4160 [10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is relatively good recently, and the US soybean futures are oscillating around the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on soybean planting, growth, import arrivals, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remained at a high level in July, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills continued to rise. The soybean meal market has returned to an oscillating pattern due to the critical period of US soybean weather and China - US trade negotiations [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. However, the recent increase in soybean meal demand supports the price, and the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations also makes the soybean meal market return to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The continuous rise of domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory, the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas, and the variables in the China - US tariff war make the soybean meal market maintain short - term oscillations, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival of domestic imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in South America [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean futures, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppresses the price [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2910, with a basis of - 116, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil mills' soybean meal is 104.31 tons, a 4.48% increase from last week and a 22.5% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4300, with a basis of 182, indicating a premium to the futures. The inventory of oil mills' soybeans is 645.59 tons, a 0.52% increase from last week and a 5.08% increase from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract holders decreased, and the funds flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The long positions of the main contract holders increased, and the funds flowed out [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal futures may return to a range - bound pattern, with the M2509 contract oscillating between 3040 and 3100. The soybean futures A2509 may fluctuate between 4180 and 4280. The market focuses on factors such as the weather in the US and South American soybean - growing areas and Sino - US trade tariff games [8][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The soybean meal futures are back in a range - bound state, while the spot is relatively weak, and the spot discount remains at a relatively high level. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2509 contract remains volatile [22][28]. 2. Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is relatively good recently, and the US soybean market is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. The domestic import of soybeans reached a high in June, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories of domestic oil mills have rebounded from low levels. The decline in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, and soybean meal demand has weakened after May Day. The soybean meal market is in a short - term weak - oscillating pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and variable weather in the US soybean - growing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: High total volume of imported soybeans arriving in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market and the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans [14]. - Bearish factors: Continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [31]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume of domestic soybeans changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [32]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main long positions increased, and funds flowed in. For soybeans, the main positions switched from long to short, and funds flowed in [8][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Bean Meal**: The US soybean prices fluctuated after rising, affected by the overall good weather in the US soybean - producing areas and technical consolidation. The domestic bean meal oscillated and rebounded, supported by the US soybean prices and technical buying, but constrained by the high arrival volume of imported soybeans in July and the weak spot price. It may return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. The bean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 3020 and 3080 [8]. - **Soybeans**: The US soybean prices fluctuated after rising, waiting for the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in the US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybeans oscillated and rebounded, driven by the rebound of US soybeans, but suppressed by the increasing arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans. The soybean A2509 is expected to oscillate between 4140 and 4240 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - **Bean Meal**: The market is neutral in terms of fundamentals. The basis is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory shows a month - on - month increase and a year - on - year decrease, which is bullish. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward, which is bullish. The long positions of the main contract increased while the funds flowed out, which is bullish. It is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short term [8]. - **Soybeans**: The market is neutral in terms of fundamentals. The basis is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The inventory shows a month - on - month decrease and a year - on - year increase, which is bearish. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward, which is bullish. The long positions of the main contract decreased while the funds flowed out, which is bullish. The price is affected by multiple factors and is expected to be range - bound in the short term [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term bullish for US soybeans, but the good recent weather in the US soybean - planting areas supports the short - term strength of the US soybean market, which is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June, and the inventory of domestic soybeans and bean meal at oil mills has rebounded since May Day. The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig replenishment, and the demand for bean meal has weakened since May Day. However, the tight supply supports the post - festival price of bean meal. Due to the weakening pressure of the China - US tariff war, the bean meal market has entered a short - term weak - oscillation pattern [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Bean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' bean meal, and weather uncertainties in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Bearish Factors**: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in July and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: Expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From July 10th to July 21st, the transaction prices and volumes of bean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal also showed small fluctuations [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From July 11th to July 21st, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and bean meal showed different trends. The spot price of bean meal was relatively weak, and the discount to the futures remained at a relatively high level [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From July 9th to July 21st, the warehouse receipts of bean one, bean two, and bean meal changed, showing a general downward trend [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory over the years [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The report provides the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, Brazil from 2023/24 to 2024/25, showing the comparison with the previous year and the five - year average [33][34][38]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from January to July 2025 show the changes in harvest area, yield, output, and other indicators [41]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Volume**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China from 2020 to 2025 shows that the peak arrival volume was postponed to June, with an overall increase [44]. 3.5 Position Data - There is no specific position data analysis in the report other than the information about the long positions of the main contracts of bean meal and soybeans mentioned in the daily tips.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Bean Meal**: The US soybean market is experiencing a decline due to favorable weather conditions in the US soybean - growing regions, which have raised expectations of a bumper harvest. In the domestic market, bean meal has rebounded, influenced by the US soybean market and technical adjustments. However, the increase in imported soybeans in June and weak spot prices are suppressing the market. It is expected to trade in the range of 2920 - 2980 [8]. - **Soybeans**: The US soybean market is under pressure from good planting weather, and the domestic soybean market is in a weak oscillation. The increase in imported soybeans and the expectation of a new - season domestic soybean harvest are suppressing the market. The domestic soybean market is expected to be affected by the US - China tariff negotiations and the arrival of imported soybeans. The soybean A2509 is expected to trade in the range of 4040 - 4140 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - **Bean Meal**: The market is neutral, with a negative basis, an increase in inventory, a downward - trending price below the 20 - day moving average, an increase in long positions by the main players but capital outflows, and is expected to trade in a range [8]. - **Soybeans**: The market is neutral, with a positive basis, a decrease in inventory, a downward - trending price below the 20 - day moving average, an increase in short positions by the main players and capital inflows, and is expected to trade in a range [10]. 2. Recent News - The progress of the US - China tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further information on US soybean planting and the arrival of imported soybeans [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. The domestic soybean and bean meal inventories have increased since May. The bean market has declined due to the fall in the US soybean market [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for bean meal has weakened since May, but tight supply supports the post - holiday price. The bean meal market is in a weak oscillation [12]. - The low inventory of domestic oil - mill bean meal supports short - term prices. The bean meal market is expected to oscillate, waiting for the confirmation of South American soybean production and the progress of the US - China tariff negotiations [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Bean Meal**: Bullish factors include slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low domestic oil - mill bean meal inventory, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - growing regions. Bearish factors include a high volume of imported soybeans in June and a bumper harvest in South America [13]. - **Soybeans**: Bullish factors are the cost support of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand. Bearish factors are the expected bumper harvest in Brazil and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2015 - 2024, the harvest area, production, and total supply of soybeans have generally increased, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also shown an upward trend [30]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2015 - 2024, the harvest area, production, and import volume of domestic soybeans have changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has fluctuated [31]. 5. Position Data - **Bean Meal Futures**: The main players have increased their long positions, but there is capital outflow [8]. - **Soybean Futures**: The main players have increased their short positions, and there is capital inflow [10]. Other Information - **Market Transactions**: The bean meal futures market has returned to an oscillation, with the spot market relatively weak and a high - level spot discount. The bean - rapeseed meal spot price difference has shown small fluctuations, and the 2509 contract spread has remained oscillating [22][27]. - **Inventory and Production**: The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has remained high, and the bean meal production in June has increased year - on - year. The inventory of oil - mill soybeans and bean meal has continued to rise, and the unexecuted contracts of oil mills have increased significantly [24][44][46]. - **Import and Cost**: The arrival of imported soybeans has been postponed to June, with an overall increase. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans and the import soybean futures profit have shown small fluctuations [43][50]. - **Livestock Market**: The inventory of pigs and sows has increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price has rebounded recently, while the piglet price has remained weak. The proportion of large pigs has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has increased slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit has rebounded from a low level [52][54][56][58].