1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **M2605 Soybean Meal**: Expected to oscillate between 2740 and 2800. Influenced by the US soybean trend and end - of - year demand, it will maintain a short - term oscillating pattern due to mixed news [9]. - **A2605 Soybeans**: Forecasted to fluctuate between 4320 and 4420. Affected by factors such as the US - China trade agreement and Brazilian soybean imports, it will maintain a short - term range - bound oscillation [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal M2605**: In the short - term, it may maintain an oscillating pattern. The US soybean trend, end - of - year demand, and news factors will all have an impact. The price is neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory is bearish, the market trend is neutral, the main position is bearish [9]. - **Soybean A2605**: In the short - term, it will maintain a range - bound oscillation. Influenced by the US - China trade agreement and Brazilian soybean imports. The price is neutral, the basis is neutral, the inventory is bearish, the market trend is bullish, the main position is bullish [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the US - China tariff negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market will oscillate above the thousand - point mark in the short - term [12]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in the first quarter. The soybean inventory of oil mills remained high in January. The soybean meal will return to a range - bound oscillation in the short - term [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits leads to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal remained good in January, supporting the price expectation. Affected by the US soybean trend and the recovery of soybean meal demand, it will maintain an oscillating pattern [12]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remained high. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean production area still exists, and the preliminary agreement in the US - China trade negotiation will affect the soybean meal to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short - term [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: The preliminary agreement in the US - China trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still variables in the weather in the South American soybean production area [13]. - **Bearish Factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in January; Brazilian soybeans have started sowing, and South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary US - China trade agreement [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: Brazilian soybeans have a bumper harvest, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [14]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the US - China trade tariff game [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From January 22 to January 30, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated slightly, and the trading volume also fluctuated. The average transaction price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually narrowed [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data**: From January 23 to January 30, the futures prices of soybeans and soybean meal fluctuated, and the spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal were relatively stable [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: From January 21 to January 30, the warehouse receipts of soybean No.1 decreased, the warehouse receipts of soybean No.2 decreased to zero, and the warehouse receipts of soybean meal increased [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2016 to 2025 show the changes in harvest area, output, inventory, and other indicators over the years [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions**: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina from 2023/24, the planting, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US in 2024, and the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina from 2024/25 to 2025/26 are presented [33][34][38]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from June 2025 to January 2026 show the changes in planting area, yield, output, and other indicators of US soybeans, as well as the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [43]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions in soybean meal increased, and the funds flowed out [9]. - The main long positions in soybeans decreased, and the funds flowed out [10]. 3.6 Other Market Conditions - The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year [44]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans entered a low level at the beginning of the year and decreased year - on - year recently [46]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the soybean meal inventory continued to decline [47]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills returned to a high level, and the soybean meal output in December increased year - on - year [49]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills continued to decline, and the stocking demand maintained a good expectation [51]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans fluctuated and declined following the US soybeans, and the market profit fluctuated slightly [53]. - The pig inventory increased slightly year - on - year, the sow inventory decreased year - on - year and declined slightly month - on - month [55]. - The pig price declined slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak [57]. - The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs continued to rise [59]. - The domestic pig - raising profit was slightly profitable [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views 2.1. Soybean Meal (M2605) - Expected to oscillate between 2780 and 2840. Influenced by the rebound of US soybeans, demand improvement, and a mix of positive and negative news, it will likely maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short - term [9]. - The basis shows a premium, which is bullish; the inventory has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, which is bearish; the price is above the 20 - day average and moving upward, which is bullish; the main short positions are increasing with capital inflow, which is bearish [9]. 2.2. Soybeans (A2605) - Expected to fluctuate between 4320 and 4420. Affected by the US soybean situation, domestic demand recovery, and the interaction of multiple factors, it will remain in an oscillatory state in the short - term [11]. - The basis shows a discount, which is bearish; the inventory has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, which is bearish; the price is above the 20 - day average and moving upward, which is bullish; the main long positions are decreasing with capital inflow, which is bullish [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Daily Hints - No information provided 3.2. Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term bullish for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a relatively high level. With normal weather in South American soybean - growing areas, the soybean meal has returned to an oscillatory range [13]. - The decline in domestic hog - farming profits has led to low expectations for hog replenishment. The increase in soybean meal demand in December supports price expectations, and the interaction of US soybean influence and demand increase has led to an oscillatory pattern [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Considering the possible speculation on US soybean - growing weather and the impact of the preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, the soybean meal will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short - term [13]. 3.3. Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1. Soybean Meal - Bullish factors include the preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, no pressure on domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory, and uncertainties in US and South American soybean - growing weather [14]. - Bearish factors are that the total arrival of imported soybeans in December remained at a relatively high level, and South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest under normal weather conditions [15]. - The current main focus is on the impact of US soybean - harvesting weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement [15]. 3.3.2. Soybeans - Bullish factors are that the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [16]. - Bearish factors are the good harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases, as well as the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppressing price expectations [16]. - The current main focus is on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [16]. 3.4. Fundamental Data 3.4.1. Price and Transaction Data - The trading volume and average price data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from December 26 to January 7 are provided, along with the price data of soybean and soybean meal futures and spot from December 29 to January 7 [17][19]. - Information on soybean and meal warehouse receipts from December 25 to January 7 is presented [21]. 3.4.2. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - Global soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are provided, including data on harvested area, beginning inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [33]. - Domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are provided, including data on harvested area, beginning inventory, output, import volume, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [34]. 3.4.3. Planting and Harvesting Progress - The planting and harvesting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2023/24 season is given, including data from December 13 to January 24 for planting and from April 21 to June 16 for harvesting [35]. - The planting, growth, and harvesting progress of US soybeans in 2024 are provided, including data from April 28 to November 10 [36][37][38][39]. - The planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are provided, including data from November 3, 2024, to May 4, 2025, and from October 25, 2025, to December 26, 2025 [40][41][43]. - The planting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are provided, including data from November 13, 2024, to January 15, 2025, and from November 12, 2025, to December 30, 2025 [42][44]. 3.4.4. Other Data - USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from May to December 2025 are provided, including data on planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing, and the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [45]. - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans has declined both month - on - month and year - on - year [46]. - The arrival of imported soybeans increased slightly in December, with an overall year - on - year increase [48]. 3.5. Position Data - No information provided 3.6. Other Market Conditions - The soybean meal futures rose and then fell, while the spot price was relatively stable, with the spot premium remaining at a high level [24]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the soybean meal output in November increased year - on - year [26][51]. - The procurement of domestic mid - and downstream enterprises increased from a low level, and the pick - up volume remained at a relatively high level [28]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract remained at a low level [30]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans declined following the oscillation of US soybeans, and the on - paper profit fluctuated slightly [55]. - The hog inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month [57]. - The hog price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak [59]. - The proportion of large hogs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of hogs fluctuated slightly [61]. - The domestic hog - farming profit fluctuated slightly [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **For Soybean Meal (M2605)**: It is expected to oscillate between 2740 and 2800. The US soybean market is affected by the expected high - yield of South American soybeans and technical adjustments. The domestic soybean meal market is influenced by the US soybean market and improved demand. With the end - of - year demand peak and spot price premium, it may maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [9]. - **For Soybeans (A2605)**: It is expected to oscillate between 4220 and 4320. The US soybean market has similar influencing factors as the soybean meal market. The domestic soybean market is supported by the increase in end - of - year demand, technical buying, domestic soybean storage, and rising spot prices, but is also affected by the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillates between 2740 - 2800, influenced by US soybean trends, demand improvement, and other factors [9]. - **Soybeans**: Oscillates between 4220 - 4320, affected by US soybean trends, domestic demand, and trade - related factors [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary China - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is oscillating above the thousand - point mark, awaiting further guidance [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a relatively high level. With normal weather for South American soybean planting and growth, soybean meal has returned to an oscillating range [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. The increase in soybean meal demand in December supports the price, and the interaction between the US soybean market and demand has led to an oscillating pattern [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Due to the possible speculation on US soybean产区 weather and the impact of the preliminary China - US trade negotiation agreement, soybean meal will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Soybean Meal Bullish Factors**: The preliminary China - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean producing areas [14]. - **Soybean Meal Bearish Factors**: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China remained at a relatively high level in December; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a high yield [15]. - **Soybean Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [16]. - **Soybean Bearish Factors**: Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a high yield, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 3070, with a basis of 294, indicating a premium over futures. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory is 117.02 million tons, a 0.22% increase from last week and a 71.18% increase from the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4240, with a basis of - 36, indicating a discount to futures. The oil mill's soybean inventory is 710.25 million tons, an 8.53% increase from last week and a 19.48% increase from the same period last year [11]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions have decreased, and funds have flowed in [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main long positions have decreased, and funds have flowed in [11]. 3.6 Other Data - **Trading Volume and Price of Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: From December 25, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the trading volume of soybean meal fluctuated, and the price also changed. The trading volume of rapeseed meal was 0 during this period, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated [17]. - **Futures and Spot Prices of Soybeans and Meal**: The futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal changed from December 26, 2025, to January 6, 2026 [19]. - **Warehouse Receipt Statistics of Soybeans and Meal**: The warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal changed from December 24, 2025, to January 6, 2026 [21]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of global and domestic soybeans from 2015 to 2024, including data on harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [33][34]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress in Different Regions**: It includes the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 to 2026 [35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: It shows the planting area, yield, output, and other data of US soybeans and the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in the past six months [45]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival and Other Data**: The arrival of imported soybeans increased slightly in December, with an overall year - on - year increase. The soybean inventory of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the soybean meal inventory remained at a high level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the soybean meal output in November increased year - on - year. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the stocking demand maintained a good expectation. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased with the oscillation of US soybeans, and the disk profit fluctuated slightly. The pig inventory increased, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs fluctuated slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit fluctuated slightly [48][49][51][53][55][57][59][61][63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1. Views and Strategies for Soybean Meal - Soybean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate between 2730 and 2790. The market is influenced by factors such as the increase in US soybean exports, technical adjustments, short - term improvement in demand, and the discount of spot prices. It is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern, with a neutral outlook. The basis is positive, but the inventory is high, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the main short positions are decreasing with capital inflow. Overall, it is expected to be short - term oscillatory and weak [9]. 2.2. Views and Strategies for Soybeans - Soybean A2605 is predicted to fluctuate between 4060 and 4160. The market is affected by China's increased procurement of US soybeans, technical adjustments, the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imported ones. It is also influenced by the follow - up implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans. The outlook is neutral. The basis is neutral, the inventory is high, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the main short positions are increasing with capital inflow. The cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans supports the bottom, but the high - volume arrival of imported soybeans and domestic soybean production growth suppress the price [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Daily Hints - Not explicitly presented in the provided content 3.2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's procurement and US soybean weather are uncertain. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above 1000 points in the short term. The arrival of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the inventory of oil - mill soybeans remained high. The planting and growing weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and soybean meal has returned to a range - bound oscillation. The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, but the increase in soybean meal demand in December has supported the price. The high inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing area, and the impact of the preliminary China - US trade agreement have led to a short - term range - bound oscillation of soybean meal, awaiting further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1. Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; there is no pressure on the inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China remained high in December; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. 3.3.2. Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expectation of increased demand for domestic soybeans supports the price [16]. - Bearish factors: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation [16]. 3.4. Fundamental Data 3.4.1. Price and Transaction Data - From December 16th to 24th, the trading average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3102 and 3138, and the trading volume was between 3.55 and 18.45 million tons. The trading average price of rapeseed meal was between 2490 and 2520, and the trading volume was 0 [17]. - From December 17th to 24th, the prices of soybean futures and soybean meal futures fluctuated, and the prices of soybean and soybean meal spot remained relatively stable [19]. 3.4.2. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Global soybean supply and demand balance sheet shows that from 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply generally increased, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio also showed an upward trend [32]. - Domestic soybean supply and demand balance sheet shows that from 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume generally increased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also increased [33]. 3.4.3. Planting and Harvesting Progress - In the 2023/24 season, the sowing and harvesting progress of Argentine soybeans was generally in line with the five - year average [34]. - In 2024, the sowing, growing, and harvesting progress of US soybeans showed different trends compared with the previous year and the five - year average [35][36][37][38]. - In the 2024/25 season, the planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans was compared with the previous year and the five - year average [39][40][41]. - In the 2025/26 season, the planting progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans was compared with the previous year and the five - year average [42][43]. 3.5. Position Data - Not provided in the report 3.6. Other Data and Information - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [45]. - The arrival of imported soybeans increased slightly in December, showing an overall year - on - year growth [47]. - The inventory of oil - mill soybeans remained high, while the inventory of soybean meal decreased from a high level. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills rebounded to a high level, and the stocking demand increased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained at a relatively high level, and the output of soybean meal in October increased year - on - year. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased with the oscillation of US soybeans, and the market profit fluctuated slightly [48][50][52][53]. - The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs fluctuated slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit fluctuated slightly [55][57][59][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **M2605 Soybean Meal**: Expected to oscillate between 2720 and 2780. Influenced by the US - China trade agreement and South American weather, it may show short - term weak oscillations. Factors like demand improvement, spot price premium, inventory changes, and market expectations contribute to this view [9]. - **A2605 Soybeans**: Forecasted to fluctuate between 4060 and 4160. The price is affected by the US - China trade situation, South American weather, and the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans. Import volume and domestic production also impact the market [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: In a neutral position. Market factors include US - China trade, South American weather, demand, and inventory [9]. - **Soybeans (A2605)**: Also in a neutral state. Influenced by similar factors as soybean meal, along with the cost - performance of domestic soybeans [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The initial agreement in the US - China tariff negotiation is a short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather remain uncertain. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while oil mill soybean inventory remained high. - Reduced domestic pig - farming profits led to low expectations for pig replenishment, but the rising demand for soybean meal in December supported price expectations [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Long Factors**: Initial agreement in US - China trade negotiation, no pressure on domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory, and variable weather in US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Short Factors**: High volume of imported soybeans arriving in December, and expected high - yield South American soybeans under normal weather conditions [15]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Long Factors**: Cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market, and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [16]. - **Short Factors**: High - yield Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese purchases, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: Data from 2015 - 2024 shows trends in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory, with the inventory - to - consumption ratio varying over the years [32]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2015 - 2024, data reflects changes in harvest area, import volume, production, consumption, and inventory, along with the inventory - to - consumption ratio [33]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out [11]. 3.6 Other Market Information - **Soybean Meal Futures and Spot**: Futures showed weak oscillations, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a slight reduction in the spot premium [24]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Spread**: The spot spread fluctuated slightly, and the spread in the 2605 contract narrowed slightly [29]. - **Oil Mill Operations**: Oil mill soybean crushing volume remained high, and soybean meal production in October increased year - on - year. Downstream purchases were low, while提货 volume was high [26][27]. - **USDA Supply - Demand Reports**: In the past six months, data on US soybean planting area, yield, production, and inventory showed some fluctuations, along with information on Brazilian and Argentine soybean production [44]. - **US Soybean Exports**: Weekly export inspections decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [45]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival**: The arrival volume increased slightly in December and showed an overall year - on - year increase [47]. - **Oil Mill Inventory and Contracts**: Oil mill soybean inventory remained high, and soybean meal inventory decreased from a high level. Unfulfilled contracts rose to a high level, indicating increased stocking demand [48][50]. - **Brazilian Soybean Import Cost**: Followed the oscillation of US soybeans and declined, with slight fluctuations in the market profit [53]. - **Pig Farming**: Pig inventory increased, sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. Pig prices fluctuated slightly, and piglet prices were weak. The proportion of large pigs increased, and the cost of secondary fattening fluctuated slightly. Pig - farming profits also fluctuated slightly [55][57][59][61].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report presents views on both the soybean and soybean meal markets. For soybean meal M2605, it is expected to oscillate between 2720 and 2780. The market is influenced by factors such as the US soybean's movement, China's soybean procurement, and South American soybean planting weather. The short - term outlook is for a weakening oscillation. For soybean A2605, it is expected to fluctuate between 4040 and 4140, with the market affected by similar factors and also by the domestic soybean's rotation storage and the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans compared to imported ones [9][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Soybean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate between 2720 and 2780, and soybean A2605 between 4040 and 4140 [9][11]. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is a short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather remain uncertain. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the inventory of soybeans at oil mills remained high. South American soybean planting and growth weather is relatively normal, and soybean meal has returned to an oscillating range. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal has rebounded from a low level in December, supporting the price of soybean meal. The interaction between the influence of US soybeans and the rebound in soybean meal demand has led to an oscillating pattern [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement is a short - term positive for US soybeans; there is no pressure on the inventory of soybean meal at domestic oil mills; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in December remained high; with normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest [15]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price of domestic soybeans [16]. - Bearish factors: Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a good harvest, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectations of beans [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From December 11th to 19th, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3102 - 3138 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 3.55 - 17.5 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2490 - 2520 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only 0.1 million tons on December 15th. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 610 - 631 yuan/ton [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data**: From December 12th to 19th, the prices of soybean futures and soybean meal futures generally showed a downward trend, while the spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal were relatively stable, with the spot price of soybean meal showing a slight downward trend [19]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: From December 10th to 19th, the number of soybean No.1 warehouse receipts decreased from 16664 to 16673, the number of soybean No.2 warehouse receipts decreased from 7100 to 2900, and the number of soybean meal warehouse receipts increased from 23830 to 24830 [21]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in factors such as harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory over the years [32][33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The report provides the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 - 2026, including data on planting rate, harvest rate, emergence rate, and excellent - good rate [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from May to December 2025 show the changes in factors such as planting area, yield per unit, output, and ending inventory of US soybeans, as well as the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [44]. 5. Position Data - For both soybean meal M2605 and soybean A2605, the short positions of the main players decreased, and funds flowed out [9][11]. Other Market Conditions - The export inspection volume of US soybeans decreased both week - on - week and year - on - year [45]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans increased slightly in December, with an overall year - on - year increase [47]. - The inventory of soybeans at oil mills remained high, while the inventory of soybean meal decreased from a high level [48]. - The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills rebounded to a high level, indicating an increase in stocking demand [50]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained at a relatively high level, and the output of soybean meal in October increased year - on - year [52]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased following the oscillation of US soybeans, and the margin on the disk fluctuated slightly [53]. - The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month [55]. - The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak [57]. - The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs fluctuated slightly [59]. - The domestic pig - farming profit fluctuated slightly [61].

大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 豆粕早报 2025-12-02 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2601：3020至3080区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆冲高回落，中国大豆供应充裕市场质疑中国采购美豆数量能否达到预期，美 豆短期偏强震荡等待中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内 豆粕冲高回落，美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，需求短期改善和现货价格贴水压制盘 面反弹高度，短期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货3020（华东），基差-19，贴水期货。中性 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存99.29万吨，上周115.3万吨，环比减少13.89%，去年同期77.86万吨， 同比增加27.52 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - **For Soybean Meal (M2601)**: The price is expected to oscillate between 3040 and 3100. The short - term trend is influenced by the US soybean market. Although China's purchase of US soybeans supports the short - term US soybean price, uncertainties remain in the purchase volume and the US soybean harvest weather. Domestically, the high arrival volume of imported Brazilian soybeans and the current situation of demand and inventory lead to a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - **For Soybeans (A2601)**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 4060 and 4160. The short - term trend is affected by the US soybean market, the cost of imported soybeans, and the supply - demand situation of domestic soybeans. The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean price, while the high arrival volume of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the upward movement [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the China - US tariff negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans, but uncertainties remain in China's purchase volume and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills also declined from the high level in November. The soybean meal market has returned to an oscillatory pattern in the short term [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment, weakening the demand for soybean meal in November and suppressing the price [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. The soybean meal market will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, awaiting further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US trade negotiation [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained relatively high in November; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean price; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [16]. - **Bearish Factors**: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The harvest area, output, and other data of soybeans from 2015 to 2024 are presented, showing the overall supply - demand situation of global soybeans during this period [33]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The harvest area, output, import volume, and other data of domestic soybeans from 2015 to 2024 are provided, reflecting the domestic supply - demand situation [34]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 to 2026 are detailed, including the planting rate, harvest rate, and comparison with previous years and the five - year average [35][36][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report**: The planting area, yield, output, and other data of soybeans in the US in the past six months are shown, as well as the output data of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [46]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Volume**: The monthly arrival volume of imported soybeans from 2020 to 2025 is presented, indicating that the arrival volume decreased from the high level in November 2025, but the overall year - on - year increase [49]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a volatile pattern in the short term, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 2900 and 2960. The market is affected by factors such as the weather in US soybean - growing areas, Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the arrival of imported soybeans [8]. - The domestic soybean market is also in a volatile situation, with the A2511 contract ranging from 3900 to 4000. It is influenced by the cost of imported soybeans, the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate between 2900 and 2960, and the domestic soybean A2511 is expected to range from 3900 to 4000 [8][10]. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate, causing short - term negative impacts on US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on soybean growth, harvest, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains at a relatively high level in October. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills decreased from a high level in October. The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig restocking, suppressing the expected price of soybean meal in October. However, due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, the soybean meal market will return to a range - bound pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and variable weather in US soybean - growing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival of imported soybeans in China in October and the expected high - yield of US soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2900, with a basis of - 39, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 116.44 tons, a 2.48% increase from last week and a 13.54% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4140, with a basis of 165, indicating a premium to the futures. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 73.2 tons, a 0.21% increase from last week and a 6.35% increase compared to the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - For both soybean meal and soybeans, the long positions of the main players decreased, but capital flowed in [8][10]. Other Data - **Soybean and Meal Transaction Data**: From September 23 to October 9, the average transaction price and volume of soybean meal and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented in the report [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Price Data**: From September 23 to October 9, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal are provided [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: From September 19 to October 9, the changes in warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal are shown [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are presented, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 to 2025 are provided [33][34][37][38][39][40][41]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from March to September 2025 are included, with data on planting area, yield, production, etc. [42]. - **Soybean - related Market Conditions**: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The arrival of imported soybeans decreased from a high level in September but increased overall year - on - year. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills decreased from a high level, while the inventory of soybean meal continued to increase. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills decreased from a high level. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased following US soybeans, and the profit on the futures market fluctuated slightly [43][45][46][48][52]. - **Pig - related Market Conditions**: The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price recently declined again, and the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit recently deteriorated [54][56][58][60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **豆粕观点**：美豆震荡收涨，等待中美谈判结果和美国大豆产区收割天气指引；国内豆粕震荡回落，受菜粕带动、需求支撑和技术性整理影响，短期或回归震荡格局；美国大豆产区天气有变数支撑美豆底部，但南美大豆丰产和美国种植天气良好压制反弹，国内采购巴西大豆到港增多，豆粕M2601预计在3000至3060区间震荡 [8] - **大豆观点**：美豆震荡收涨，等待相关指引；国内大豆窄幅震荡，受美豆带动和技术性整理影响，进口大豆到港高和新季国产大豆增产预期压制盘面，短期受中美关税谈判和进口大豆到港旺季交互影响，豆一A2511预计在3900至4000区间震荡 [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Recent News - 中美关税谈判进展短期利多美豆，美盘震荡回升，未来等待美豆生长、收割及进口大豆到港和中美关税谈判后续指引 - 国内进口大豆到港量8月维持高位，油厂豆粕库存进入偏高位，豆粕短期震荡偏强，受8月美农报利多数据和菜粕上涨影响 - 国内生猪养殖利润减少使生猪补栏预期不高，但豆粕需求近期回升支撑价格，加上中美贸易谈判不确定性，豆粕回归区间震荡格局 - 国内油厂豆粕库存继续回升，豆粕短期偏强震荡，等待南美大豆产量明确和中美关税战后续指引 [12] 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **豆粕利多因素**：进口大豆到港通关缓慢；国内油厂豆粕库存尚处低位；美国大豆产区天气仍有变数 [13] - **豆粕利空因素**：国内进口大豆到港总量9月维持高位；巴西大豆收割结束，南美大豆丰产预期持续 [13] - **大豆利多因素**：进口大豆成本支撑国内大豆盘面底部；国产大豆需求回升预期支撑国内大豆价格预期 [14] - **大豆利空因素**：巴西大豆丰产预期持续，中国增加采购巴西大豆；新季国产大豆增产压制豆类价格预期 [14] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **豆粕基差**：现货2950（华东），基差 -92，贴水期货，偏空 [8] - **豆粕库存**：油厂豆粕库存113.62万吨，上周107.88万吨，环比增加5.32%，去年同期134.88万吨，同比减少15.76%，偏多 [8] - **大豆库存**：油厂大豆库存731.7万吨，上周682.53万吨，环比增加5%，去年同期689.18万吨，同比增加6.17%，偏空 [10] - **盘面情况**：豆粕和大豆价格均在20日均线下方且方向向下，偏空 [8][10] - **主力持仓**：豆粕主力多单减少，资金流入，偏多；大豆主力多单增加，资金流入，偏多 [8][10] 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the given content 3.6 Additional Information - 豆粕期货区间震荡，现货相对平稳，现货贴水小幅波动 [22] - 油厂大豆入榨量维持高位，7月豆粕产量同比增加 [24][50] - 国内中下游采购低位回升，提货量维持高位 [27] - 豆菜粕现货价差小幅波动，2601合约豆菜粕价差低位震荡 [29] - 美豆周度出口检验环比回落，同比回升 [43] - 进口大豆到港量9月高位回落，同比整体有所增长 [45] - 油厂大豆库存创出新高，豆粕库存继续增加 [46] - 油厂未执行合同低位回升，长假备货需求增多 [48] - 巴西豆进口成本跟随美豆回升，盘面利润小幅波动 [53] - 生猪存栏保持升势，母猪存栏同比持平，环比小幅回落 [55] - 生猪价格近期回归震荡，仔猪价格维持弱势 [57] - 国内大猪比例回升，生猪二次育肥成本小幅回升 [59] - 国内生猪养殖利润近期有所改善 [61]