天然橡胶产业日报 2025-12-29 ，企业整体出货节奏偏慢，成品库存攀升，产销压力下，部分企业存停限产现象。ru2605合约短线预计在1 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 5400-16000区间波动，nr2602合约短线预计在12400-13000区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | -115 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15665 | 12665 | -90 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 10 20号胶2-3价差(日,元/吨) | 40 | -20 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory build - up, and the overall inventory accumulation rate has continued to expand. Overseas mixed rubber arrivals and warehousing have increased, while downstream factories are mainly digesting their own inventories, with low restocking willingness, and overall outbound shipments are lower than expected. In terms of demand, last week tire companies adjusted production flexibly, some companies controlled production, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies was weak, entering the seasonal off - peak season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises was slow, finished product inventory climbed, and under production and sales pressure, some companies had production suspension or limitation phenomena. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,650 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,200 - 12,650 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,290 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,405 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 30 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,885 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 146,529 lots, down 1,229 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 53,329 lots, down 1,663 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 38,999 lots, down 105 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 13,460 lots, up 1,166 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 88,730 tons, unchanged; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 57,758 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,835 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,830 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,470 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,420 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 10,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 440 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 735 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,952 yuan/ton, down 104 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 2,065 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 58.4 Thai baht/kg, down 0.31 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 55.75 Thai baht/kg, down 1.4 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue water) was 56 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 2.4 US dollars/ton, down 51.4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 126,100 tons, up 35,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 256,400 tons, down 61,100 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.13%, down 0.94 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 71.44%, down 0.13 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period was 41.91 days, up 1.33 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period was 46.48 days, up 0.97 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, up 0.59 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 12.96%, down 0.14 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 14.64%, down 0.03 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 19.78%, up 0.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 19.79%, up 0.2 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year, and a significant year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 515,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,300 tons, an increase of 3.28%. The bonded area inventory was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2.72%; the general trade inventory was 435,600 tons, an increase of 3.38%. As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.67 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.72 percentage points [2]

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-12-22 比-0.13个百分点，同比-8.67个百分点；中国全钢胎样本企业产能利用率为63.61%，环比-0.94个百分点， 及预期。需求方面，上周轮胎企业灵活排产，部分企业存控产现象，国内轮胎企业产能利用率偏弱运行， 数据来源于第三方，仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 同比+3.72个百分点。各企业灵活排产，部分企业存控产现象，样本企业产能利用率偏弱运行。 进入季节性淡季，企业整体出货节奏偏慢，成品库存攀升，产销压力下，部分企业存停限产现象。ru2605 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 合约短线预计在15000-15650区间波动，nr2602合约短线预计在12200-12650区间波动。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 15205 30 | 15 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 10 20号胶2-3价差 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15190 | -170 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12085 | -145 | | | 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 20 | 30 20号胶1-2价差(日,元/吨) | 0 | 5 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3125 | -5 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 58055 | -4907 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 39260 | -3018 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -32075 | -595 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -9285 | -978 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 41400 | 0 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 51710 14850 | -403 50 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | 15250 | 50 | | | 泰标STR20(日,美元/吨) ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [10] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, recent cooling in China may accelerate the end of the tapping season in Yunnan, reducing the output of RU deliverable products. Hainan has good weather with expected raw material growth. Thailand's northern region is in the peak production season, but the south is affected by rainfall, limiting glue output. Cup - rubber production may increase. Domestic dark - colored rubber may continue to accumulate inventory. Downstream demand lacks highlights, and the upside potential of tire factory operating rates is limited. The supply - demand structure may favor the widening of the spread between RU and NR and the reverse - arbitrage logic of NR, with prices moving in a range [10] - For cis - butadiene rubber, some upstream devices have changes such as restarts and shutdowns for maintenance. The supply is expected to remain abundant as private enterprises' production profits improve and operating rates rise. Downstream demand lacks highlights, and the upside potential of tire factory operating rates is limited. The price of upstream butadiene is expected to be weak due to inventory pressure [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,320 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,275 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,395 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,840 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,730 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - China's rubber tire exports in the first 10 months of 2025: The export volume reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. New pneumatic rubber tire exports: The volume was 7.74 million tons, up 3.6% year - on - year; the value was 134.8 billion yuan, up 2.6% year - on - year. By quantity, the export volume was 586.64 million pieces, up 4% year - on - year. Automobile tire exports from January to October were 6.85 million tons, up 3.3% year - on - year; the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, up 2.1% year - on - year [2] - China's natural rubber imports in October 2025 were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [2] - ANRPC's September 2025 report predicted that global natural rubber production in September would increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; consumption would decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) in the first three quarters of 2025 totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, standard rubber exports totaled 1.116 million tons, down 20% year - on - year; smoked sheet exports were 308,000 tons, up 22% year - on - year; latex exports were 556,000 tons, up 10% year - on - year. From January to September, exports to China totaled 759,000 tons, up 6% year - on - year. Standard rubber exports to China totaled 459,000 tons, down 19% year - on - year; smoked sheet exports to China totaled 99,000 tons, up 330% year - on - year; latex exports to China totaled 199,000 tons, up 70% year - on - year [3] - In October 2025, the retail volume of the national passenger car market was 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, ending two consecutive months of "double - increase". From January to October, the cumulative retail volume of passenger cars was 19.25 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [3] - In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads on November 24, 2025: RU basis was - 420 yuan/ton (+20), the spread between RU main contract and mixed rubber was 720 yuan/ton (+30), NR basis was 761.00 yuan/ton (+40.00); whole latex was 14,900 yuan/ton (+100), mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (+50), 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+50). STR20 was quoted at 1,840 US dollars/ton (+5), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 350 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,700 yuan/ton (+50) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 61.37 Thai baht/kg (-1.42), Thai glue was 57.00 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup - rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg (+0.85), the spread between Thai glue and cup - rubber was 4.05 Thai baht/kg (-0.15) [5] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.04% (-2.25%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.36% (-3.63%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 468,877 tons (+16,288), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,061,881 tons (+5,524), the RU futures inventory was 39,600 tons (-68,870), and the NR futures inventory was 50,199 tons (+504) [6] Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads on November 24, 2025: BR basis was - 95 yuan/ton (-10), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 10,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,350 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 9,950 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,607 yuan/ton (+13) [7] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 72.64% (+2.71%) [8] - Inventory: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 4,880 tons (-90), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,630 tons (+780) [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, improved weather and continuous raw material supply pressure support a slight price increase. In Hainan, with better weather, tapping operations resume, and raw material supply shows a seasonal increase. Some processors' raw material replenishment enthusiasm increases due to improved profits and orders [2]. - Recently, Qingdao port's natural rubber inventory continues to decline, though the decline rate slows. The inflow increases while the outflow increase is moderate. Downstream tire enterprises' procurement is relatively mild, and they continue the on - demand procurement rhythm. Short - term Qingdao port inventory is expected to continue a slight decline [2]. - In terms of demand, most semi - steel tire enterprises' equipment ran stably last week, but some had maintenance due to high shipment pressure, dragging down overall capacity utilization. All - steel tire enterprises' equipment ran stably, mostly continuing the previous production control state. Some enterprises had maintenance plans at the beginning of this month, which may still affect short - term capacity utilization. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 15650 - 16200 range, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 12520 - 13000 range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15885 yuan/ton, and the 20 - number rubber is 12715 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 80 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 11 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 50 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3170 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 147050 lots (an increase of 3830 lots), and that of 20 - number rubber is 36890 lots (a decrease of 1963 lots). The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 33638 (a decrease of 1947), and that of 20 - number rubber is - 6787 (an increase of 451) [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 167760 tons (a decrease of 160 tons), and those of 20 - number rubber are 45664 tons (a decrease of 100 tons) [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15150 yuan/ton, the price of Thai standard STR20 is 1840 US dollars/ton, the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15150 yuan/ton, and the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1840 US dollars/ton [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14880 yuan/ton, and that of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14830 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12500 yuan/ton, and that of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 12100 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 735 yuan/ton (an increase of 35), the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 990 yuan/ton (an increase of 70), the price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13105 yuan/ton (an increase of 71), and the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 390 yuan/ton (an increase of 66) [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 60.98 Thai baht/kg, that of rubber sheets is 58.35 Thai baht/kg (a decrease of 0.23), that of glue is 55.6 Thai baht/kg (an increase of 0.15), and that of cup rubber is 51.2 Thai baht/kg (an increase of 0.15) [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 227.4 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 7.6), and that of STR20 is 35.8 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 2). The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 12.19 million tons (an increase of 0.1), and that of mixed rubber is 25.95 million tons (a decrease of 2.13) [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.84% (a decrease of 0.92), and that of semi - steel tires is 72.77% (a decrease of 0.36) [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.22 days (a decrease of 0.54), and those of semi - steel tires are 46.14 days (a decrease of 0.91). The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.75 million pieces (an increase of 13), and that of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million pieces (an increase of 174) [2]. Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.8% (a decrease of 0.22), and the historical 40 - day volatility is 18.87% (an increase of 0.3) [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.61 (an increase of 0.49), and that of at - the - money put options is 22.6% (an increase of 0.46) [2]. Industry News - In the first week of September 2025, rainfall in Southeast Asian main natural rubber producing areas increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, heavy rainfall in some areas increased the impact on tapping; the same situation occurred in some southern hemisphere areas [2]. - As of August 31, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 602,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons (a decrease of 0.6%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 73,200 tons (a decrease of 0.14%), and the general trade inventory was 529,000 tons (a decrease of 0.7%) [2]. - As of August 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97% (a decrease of 0.90 percentage points month - on - month and 8.73 percentage points year - on - year), and that of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.89% (a decrease of 0.08 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 5.10 percentage points year - on - year) [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The utilization rate of domestic tire production capacity fluctuated slightly last week. Some large semi-steel tire enterprises had about one - week maintenance, dragging down the overall enterprise production capacity utilization rate. The full - steel tire maintenance enterprises resumed work, driving up the full - steel tire production capacity utilization rate. There is still a slight upward space for the production capacity utilization rate as the maintenance enterprises gradually resume work, but the overall order performance is average, and enterprises will continue to control production, which will limit the increase in the overall production capacity utilization rate. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,450 - 12,900 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 15,720 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 12,600 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 1,000 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 65 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,120 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The trading volume and net positions of the main contracts of both types of rubber changed, and the exchange warehouse receipts decreased [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of Shanghai market state - owned whole latex and Vietnam 3L increased by 200 yuan/ton. The prices of Thai and Malaysian standard rubbers decreased by 15 US dollars/ton. The prices of Thai and Malaysian RMB mixed rubbers decreased by 120 yuan/ton. The prices of齐鲁石化's butadiene - styrene and cis - butadiene rubbers remained unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber and its non - standard products changed, and the price of 20 - number rubber in Qingdao market decreased [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference prices of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets, films, and cup rubber) decreased, while the price of glue remained unchanged. The theoretical production profits of RSS3 increased, while that of STR20 decreased. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber decreased, while that of mixed rubber increased. The weekly opening rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires changed [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong increased. The monthly output of full - steel and semi - steel tires increased [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day and 40 - day volatilities of the underlying decreased, and the implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options decreased [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (August 17 - 23, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period, reducing the impact on rubber tapping. As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.31 million tons, with a decrease of 0.50%. The inventory in the bonded area increased by 2.12%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.87%. The inventory in Qingdao continued to decline, with the bonded warehouse accumulating inventory and the general trade warehouse continuing to reduce inventory. The arrival and warehousing of overseas goods increased, but the tire enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm decreased [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,600 - 15,500 in the short - term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12,500 - 13,000 in the short - term [2] - Currently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao Port shows a slight accumulation trend, with bonded warehouses reducing inventory and general trade warehouses increasing inventory. Overseas supplies arriving at the port and entering storage remain low, but the overall outbound volume is lower than expected due to terminal wait - and - see attitude [2] - In terms of demand, the production recovery of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises drove a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. However, towards the end of the month, the overall shipment performance of enterprises was lower than expected, with a slight increase in finished product inventory. Due to insufficient overall orders, some enterprises may have short - term maintenance plans from late July to early August, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to decline in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,945 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,575 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan [2] - The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 805 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,370 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 99,492 lots, down 9,387 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 47,606 lots, down 4,373 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 29,778 lots, down 2,201 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 11,048 lots, down 437 lots [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 179,910 tons, down 2,010 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 39,716 tons, up 908 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,810 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,810 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber was 55 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 410 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,872 yuan/ton, down 99 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 297 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 65.33 Thai baht/kg, down 0.26 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 62.01 Thai baht/kg, down 1.1 Thai baht [2] - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 55.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber was 49.35 Thai baht/kg, down 0.65 Thai baht [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 140.8 US dollars/ton, down 33.8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 35.2 US dollars/ton, up 2.6 US dollars [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 120,900 tons, down 27,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 280,800 tons, up 58,500 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.02%, down 0.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 75.87%, down 0.12 percentage points [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 40.95 days, up 0.1 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 46.55 days, up 0.37 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 0.8 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 19.79%, up 0.18 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.39%, down 0.2 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 31.55%, down 7.45 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 31.55%, down 7.44 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (July 27 - August 2, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in sporadic areas such as southern Myanmar and southern Cambodia, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, with less impact on tapping operations. In the southern hemisphere, there were no red areas, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, with little impact on tapping operations [2] - As of July 27, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 640,400 tons, up 6,000 tons from the previous period, an increase of 0.91%. The bonded area inventory was 75,800 tons, a decrease of 2.70%; the general trade inventory was 564,600 tons, an increase of 1.42%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.63 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.67 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.14 percentage points [2] - As of July 24, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, up 1.93 percentage points from the previous period and down 10.06 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, up 0.25 percentage points from the previous period and up 3.98 percentage points year - on - year. The production of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises basically recovered, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate [2] - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Due to rainfall in Yunnan, there is less glue, and the purchase price remains firm. In Hainan, the weather is fair, tapping operations are gradually carried out, and the output of raw materials on the island shows a seasonal increase. Affected by factors such as profit, local processing plants' enthusiasm for snapping up raw materials at high prices has increased, and the raw material purchase price has decreased [2]

Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber futures market is showing a strong performance, with prices increasing and various factors influencing supply and demand dynamics [1] Price Movement - As of July 25, the main contract for natural rubber is priced at 15,625.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 3.20% increase [1] - The Shanghai market's 2023 SCRWF mainstream transaction price ranges from 15,350 to 15,400 CNY/ton, up by 400 CNY/ton from the previous day [1] Supply Dynamics - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a total of 186,680 tons of natural rubber warehouse receipts as of July 24, a decrease of 20 tons from the previous week [1] - Thailand's natural rubber exports for the first half of 2025 totaled 1.386 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2% [1] - Specific export figures include: standard rubber at 804,000 tons (down 12% year-on-year), sheet rubber at 196,000 tons (up 26%), and latex at 377,000 tons (up 12%) [1] Market Sentiment - According to Guotai Junan Futures, the upward momentum in the rubber market is slightly weakening, with a diminishing bullish sentiment and increased resistance from downstream buyers towards high-priced sources [1] - Hualian Futures notes that large-scale infrastructure projects are beneficial for the demand of all-steel tires, with macroeconomic expectations supporting rubber prices [1] Demand Factors - Domestic real estate sector struggles are negatively impacting rubber demand, with a deepening year-on-year decline in real estate development investment from January to June [1] - However, demand from large engineering projects is improving heavy truck sales, which saw a year-on-year increase of approximately 29% in June [1] - The operating rate for all-steel tires is at a relatively low level, while the operating rate for semi-steel tires has recently rebounded significantly [1] Operational Recommendations - The recommendation is to reduce long positions while maintaining holdings, with the support level for RU09 raised to around 14,500 CNY [1]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total inventory at Qingdao Port is in a destocking trend. In terms of demand, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises last week gradually increased to the normal level, driving a restorative increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of enterprises. Currently, the production scheduling of enterprises tends to be stable, and there is a certain increase in orders in the middle and late ten - day periods, with a slight expected boost to the overall operation. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,600 - 15,500 in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,550 - 13,150 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,060 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 165 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 795 yuan/ton, with an increase of 20 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,855 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 30 yuan; the 8 - 9 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 25 yuan/ton, with an increase of 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,205 yuan/ton, with an increase of 60 yuan. The positions of the main Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber contracts decreased, while the net positions of the top 20 in both increased. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber in the exchange remained unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of various types of rubber in the Shanghai market, such as state - owned whole latex, Vietnam 3L, etc., showed different changes. The prices of Thai and Malaysian standard rubbers increased by 5 US dollars/ton. The prices of Thai and Malaysian RMB mixed rubbers increased by 70 yuan/ton. The prices of butadiene - styrene rubber and cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical also changed, with the price of cis - butadiene rubber increasing by 300 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rubber and its non - standard products decreased, while the basis of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market and its main contract increased [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The reference prices of various forms of Thai raw rubber, such as smoked sheets, films, glue water, and cup glue, showed different changes. The theoretical production profits of RSS3 and STR20 increased. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber decreased by 2.73 tons, while the monthly import volume of mixed rubber increased by 5.85 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires increased, with the all - steel tire operating rate increasing by 0.54 percentage points and the semi - steel tire operating rate increasing by 3.07 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong increased slightly. The monthly output of all - steel and semi - steel tires also increased, with the all - steel tire output increasing by 800,000 pieces and the semi - steel tire output increasing by 1.08 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day and 40 - day volatilities of the underlying showed different trends, with the 20 - day volatility decreasing by 2.65 percentage points and the 40 - day volatility remaining unchanged. The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options increased [2] 3.6 Industry News - From July 20 - 26, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared to the previous period. The rainfall in most areas in the northern hemisphere affected rubber tapping, while the rainfall in the southern hemisphere had less impact on rubber tapping. As of July 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao decreased by 0.18 million tons, with a decline of 0.28%. The inventory in bonded areas and general trade both decreased, and the inbound and outbound rates of warehouses also decreased. As of July 17, the capacity utilization rates of Chinese semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises increased [2]