港股内房股集体拉升上涨，其中，碧桂园涨近4%，融创中国涨3.6%，华润置地、中国海外宏洋集团涨 3%，新城发展、越秀地产、万科企业、龙湖集团、金辉控股、中国金茂、龙光集团涨幅均超1%以上。 消息上，广州积极推动收购存量商品房用作保障性住房，多地持续出台放松政策。宏观方面，住建部11 月21日在安徽省芜湖市召开全国城市更新工作推进会，会议指出，要因地制宜、探索创新，着力在规 划、资金、运营、治理4 个方面下功夫，同时系统推进好房子、好小区、好社区、好城区"四好"建设， 确保取得实实在在的成效。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 02007 | 碧桂元 | 0.530 | 3.92% | | 01918 | 融创中国 | 1.450 | 3.57% | | 01109 | 华润置地 | 30.680 | 3.02% | | 00081 | 中国海外宏洋集 | 2.450 | 2.94% | | 00688 | 中国海外发展 | 14.050 | 2.86% | | 01030 | 新城发展 | 2.270 | 2.25% | | 00123 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The real estate market is expected to continue bottoming out, with core cities stabilizing sooner. Two major opportunities are highlighted: the rise of favorable policies for housing and the potential for commercial real estate assets to be revalued during a monetary easing cycle [2][3]. Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 201 million square meters last week, up 11.9% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities increasing by 12.6% and third and fourth-tier cities by 3.2% [4][5]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in November are down 39%, with first and second-tier cities down 37.8% and third and fourth-tier cities down 49.2% [5][7]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties in 15 cities was 89.538 million square meters, with a slight increase of 0.03% week-on-week [22][23]. Policy and News Tracking - The State Council supports the issuance of REITs for private investment projects and the central bank aims to improve the foundational financial system for real estate [31][32]. - Local policies include the promotion of purchasing existing homes for affordable housing in Hangzhou and the launch of online applications for housing provident fund loans in Zhengzhou [31][34]. Company Dynamics - Several real estate companies reported their sales data for October 2025. China Jinmao achieved sales of 12 billion yuan, up 3%, while other companies like New Town Holdings and CIFI Holdings saw significant declines [38][39]. - China Resources Land announced a placement of 49.5 million shares, raising approximately 2.06 billion HKD, maintaining a 70.1% stake post-placement [38][39]. Sector Performance Review - The SW Real Estate Index rose by 2.7%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which fell by 1.08%, ranking 7th among 31 sectors [43][47]. - Notable stock performances included China Wuyi and Huaxia Happiness, which saw significant gains, while companies like Asia Pacific Real Estate and Shenzhen Real Estate A experienced declines [47].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3][28]. Core Views - The "Good House" policy is expected to create new pathways for recovery in core cities, leading to a resurgence in leading companies and opening new development avenues with "new products, new pricing, and new models" [3][28]. - The current monetary easing cycle highlights the advantages of commercial real estate, with a reassessment of the value of quality commercial properties already beginning to manifest [3][28]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transaction Volume - In the week of October 18-24, 2025, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 2.566 million square meters, a decrease of 1.9% week-on-week [4][6]. - Year-on-year, October transactions in these cities fell by 23%, with first and second-tier cities down 20.7% and third and fourth-tier cities down 42.6% [6][7]. Second-Hand Home Transaction Volume - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.155 million square meters, down 6.1% week-on-week [12]. - Cumulatively, October transactions were down 20.1% year-on-year, with a significant drop of 38.4% compared to September [12][13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of October 18-24, 2025, 15 cities launched 710,000 square meters of new supply, with total transactions of 1.05 million square meters, resulting in a transaction-to-launch ratio of 1.48 [20]. - The total available residential area in these cities was 89.75 million square meters, a decrease of 0.4% week-on-week [20]. Policy and News Tracking Macro Policies - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasized the need to promote high-quality development in the real estate sector [28][31]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 13.9% year-on-year decline in real estate investment for the first nine months of 2025, totaling 6.7706 trillion yuan [28][29]. Company Dynamics - China Overseas Development reported a 14% decline in sales revenue for the first nine months of 2025, totaling 170.5 billion yuan [35]. - Poly Development issued new bonds totaling 5 billion yuan with a 2% interest rate and 25 billion yuan with a 2.21% interest rate [35][36]. Market Performance Review - The SW Real Estate Index rose by 1.51%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index, which increased by 3.24%, resulting in a relative return of -1.73% [38]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for mainstream AH-listed real estate companies for 2025 and 2026 is projected at 19.7 and 17.5 times, respectively [38][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3][40]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the potential of the "Good House" policy to create new pathways for recovery in core cities, leading to a resurgence in leading companies and the opening of new development avenues [3][40]. - It highlights the ongoing monetary easing cycle in China, which is expected to enhance the value of quality commercial real estate [3][40]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - In the week of October 18-24, 2025, new housing transactions in 34 key cities totaled 2.566 million square meters, a decrease of 1.9% week-on-week [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new housing transactions in October showed a decline of 23% across 34 cities [3][6]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.155 million square meters, down 6.1% from the previous week [3][12]. - Cumulatively, second-hand housing transactions in October were down 20.1% year-on-year [3][12]. Inventory and Sales - The report notes that 15 cities had a total of 710,000 square meters of new housing launched, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 1.48 times [3][21]. - The total available residential area in these cities was 89.75 million square meters, reflecting a 0.4% decrease [3][21]. Policy and News Tracking Macro Policies - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session called for promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector [3][30]. - National statistics revealed a 13.9% year-on-year decline in real estate investment for the first three quarters of 2025, totaling 677.06 billion yuan [3][30]. Company Dynamics - Major state-owned enterprises remain active in financing, with Poly Developments reporting a new guarantee of 41.03 billion yuan for 2025 [3][36]. - China Overseas Development achieved sales of 7.56 million square meters, down 1%, with a revenue of 170.5 billion yuan, down 14% [3][36]. Sector Performance Review - The SW Real Estate Index rose by 1.51%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which increased by 3.24% [3][40]. - The report identifies key companies to watch, including China Resources Land, Longfor Group, and Poly Developments, among others [3][40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting optimism for the "Good House" policy and the revaluation of commercial real estate [4][31]. Core Insights - The report indicates a narrowing decline in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, with significant month-on-month increases in new home sales across major cities [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the impact of low mortgage rates and various local government initiatives aimed at revitalizing urban areas and improving housing affordability [31][32]. - The analysis suggests that the current monetary easing cycle favors commercial real estate, with a notable revaluation of quality commercial properties beginning to manifest [4][31]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities reached 2.604 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 166%, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 170% increase [5][8]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in October are down 24%, with first and second-tier cities down 22% and third and fourth-tier cities down 43% [8][9]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties in 15 cities is approximately 90.1 million square meters, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.2% [23][24]. Policy and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China reports that the average mortgage rate remains low at around 3.1%, down 25 basis points year-on-year [31][32]. - Various local policies have been implemented, such as tax reductions for housing rental companies in Beijing and optimized loan policies in Chengdu [31][32]. - The report notes significant land sales, including a residential land transaction in Nanjing for 1.32 billion yuan and multiple land sales in Chengdu totaling over 2.5 billion yuan [31][32]. Company Dynamics - Sales data for major real estate companies show a mixed performance, with China Jinmao reporting a 6% increase in sales volume, while other companies like Gemdale and Poly Developments show significant declines [4][36]. - Financing activities include Huafa's issuance of convertible bonds worth 4.8 billion yuan and various companies providing loan guarantees for subsidiaries [36][39]. - The report highlights the performance of the real estate sector, with the SW Real Estate Index declining by 2.35%, underperforming compared to the broader market [43][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a narrowing decline in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, with significant month-on-month increases in new home sales across major cities [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the impact of favorable policies, including low mortgage rates and city-specific initiatives aimed at urban renewal, which are expected to stimulate market activity [3][32]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the evolving market dynamics, particularly in commercial real estate and property management [3][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities reached 2.604 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 166%, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 170% increase [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in October are down 24%, with first and second-tier cities down 22% and third and fourth-tier cities down 43% [3][7][8]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties in 15 cities decreased by 0.2%, with a current available area of 90.1 million square meters [3][23]. 2. Policy and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China reported that the average mortgage rate for new loans was approximately 3.1% in September, down 25 basis points year-on-year [3][32]. - The Ministry of Natural Resources released 13 industry standards to guide urban renewal and the revitalization of underutilized spaces [3][32]. - Various cities have implemented tax incentives for rental housing enterprises and optimized public housing fund policies to support homebuyers [3][32]. 3. Company Performance - China Jinmao reported a 6% increase in sales volume to 3.675 million square meters and a 27.3% increase in sales revenue to 80.69 billion yuan for the first nine months [3][36]. - Other major developers like Poly Developments and China Vanke reported declines in sales volume and revenue, with Poly Developments seeing a 25.1% drop in sales volume [3][36]. - The report notes that several companies are actively engaging in financing activities, including issuing convertible bonds and providing loan guarantees [3][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [2][10]. Core Insights - The real estate sector continues to face a sluggish fundamental environment, with performance under pressure in the short term. However, there are signs of potential recovery in the future, albeit at a slow pace [4][2]. - The report anticipates that the performance of the real estate sector will remain under pressure in Q3 2025 due to declining sales and low profit margins, but a gradual recovery is expected in 2025-2026 [4][2]. - The government is emphasizing policies to stabilize the real estate market, including urban renewal initiatives and easing purchase restrictions in major cities [4][2]. Summary by Sections Performance Expectations - The report predicts that the performance of the real estate sector will continue to be challenged in Q3 2025, primarily due to a decline in sales since 2021 and low profit margins driven by previous price cuts [4][2]. - Sales data shows that the top 50 real estate companies experienced a cumulative sales area decline of 25% year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2025, with significant monthly declines in July to September [4][2]. Company Performance Forecast - The report categorizes major companies based on their expected net profit growth for Q1-Q3 2025: - Companies with growth >+15%: Binjiang Group - Companies with growth between 0% and +15%: China Merchants Jinling - Companies with growth between -15% and 0%: China Merchants Shekou - Companies with growth between -30% and -15%: Jianfa Co., New Town Holdings - Companies with growth <=-30%: Poly Developments, Huafa Group [7][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on new opportunities in the real estate sector, particularly in "good housing" policies and the revaluation of commercial real estate. Specific companies are highlighted for investment: - Good housing companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, Greentown China, China Jinmao, Jianfa Co. - Commercial real estate and undervalued companies: New Town Holdings, Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, Poly Developments, Huafa Group [4][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [5][46]. Core Views - The "Good House" policy is expected to create new pathways for recovery in core cities, leading to a rebound in leading companies and opening up new development avenues for "new products, new pricing, and new models" [5][46]. - The current monetary easing cycle is seen as advantageous for commercial real estate, with a reassessment of the value of high-quality commercial properties already beginning to manifest [5][46]. Industry Data - New home transaction volume in 34 key cities decreased by 22% year-on-year during the National Day holiday, with total transactions of 40 million square meters, which is only 42% of the average from 2017 to 2024 [5][15]. - In October, new home transactions in 34 cities are down 28.4% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities down 23.2% and third and fourth-tier cities down 58.5% [5][8]. - The inventory of residential properties in 15 cities increased by 0.1% week-on-week, with a total available area of 90.43 million square meters [5][28]. Policy and News Tracking - Various cities have introduced supportive policies for the real estate sector, including measures in Chongqing, Hefei, and Yunnan to enhance housing supply and optimize loan conditions [5][37]. - The report highlights significant land transactions, including a residential land deal in Beijing for approximately 4.31 billion yuan and six residential land deals in Nanjing totaling about 4.21 billion yuan [5][39]. Company Dynamics - China Merchants Shekou plans to issue up to 82 million preferred shares to fund project delivery, while Yuexiu Property secured a 3 billion HKD revolving loan [5][42]. - Jianfa International reported a cumulative sales amount of 71.03 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [5][42]. Market Performance - The SW Real Estate Index rose by 3.01%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which increased by 1.99% [5][46]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for mainstream AH-listed real estate companies for 2025 and 2026 are 17.5 and 15.3 times, respectively [5][51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4]. Core Insights - The "Good House" policy is expected to create new pathways for recovery in core cities, leading to a resurgence in leading companies and opening new development avenues [4]. - The report highlights the ongoing monetary easing cycle, which favors commercial real estate, indicating that the revaluation of quality commercial properties has begun [4]. Industry Data Summary - **New Housing Transaction Volume**: In the week of September 27 to October 3, 2025, 34 key cities saw a total new housing transaction of 2.472 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 0.6%. The transaction volume for first and second-tier cities increased by 3.2%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a decline of 46.3% [4][5]. - **Monthly Year-on-Year Change**: In October, the transaction volume in 34 cities is expected to decrease by 28% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities down by 23% and third and fourth-tier cities down by 58.5% [4][7]. - **Inventory Levels**: As of October 3, 2025, the total available residential area in 15 cities was 90.434 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 0.1%. The average monthly depleting months for the last three months was 25.9 months, an increase of 1.1 months [4][28]. Policy and News Tracking - **Policy Initiatives**: Various cities have introduced supportive real estate policies, including the establishment of a land supply heat map mechanism in Hefei and enhanced housing subsidy policies in Yunnan [4][38]. - **Land Market Transactions**: In Nanjing, six residential land plots were sold for approximately 4.21 billion yuan, while a plot in Beijing's Sun Palace area was sold for about 4.31 billion yuan [4][38]. Company Dynamics - **Financing Activities**: China Merchants Shekou plans to issue up to 82 million preferred shares to fund project delivery, while Yuexiu Property secured a 3 billion HKD revolving loan [4][44]. - **Sales Performance**: Jianfa International reported a cumulative sales amount of 71.03 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, despite a decrease in sales area by 15.8% [4][44]. Sector Performance Review - **Market Performance**: The SW Real Estate Index rose by 3.01%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which increased by 1.99%. The real estate sector ranked 4th among 31 sectors [4][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3]. Core Views - The broad housing demand in China has likely bottomed out, but the volume and price have not yet entered a positive cycle. The overall real estate market is expected to continue stabilizing, with policies aimed at stopping the decline being introduced [3]. - The core cities' real estate markets are anticipated to be at the bottom turning point and will lead the recovery. The "Good House" policy is expected to create new development tracks, enhancing the market in core cities [3]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong product capabilities and undervalued firms, as well as second-hand housing intermediaries and property management companies [3]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - In the week of September 13-19, 2025, new housing transactions in 34 key cities totaled 2.083 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 5.4%. The year-on-year increase for September is 17.6% [4][5]. - The transaction volume for new homes in first and second-tier cities increased by 5.2%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw an increase of 8.1% [4]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.096 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 6.1%. However, the cumulative year-on-year increase for September is 31.3% [11]. Inventory and Sales - In the week of September 13-19, 2025, 15 cities launched 1.07 million square meters of new housing, with total sales of 780,000 square meters, resulting in a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.73 [19]. - The total available residential area in these cities was 89.666 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [19]. Policy and News Tracking - The State Council has officially implemented the "Housing Rental Regulations," encouraging the increase of rental housing supply through various channels [28]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to August 2025, real estate investment totaled 603.09 billion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year, with sales area and sales amount also declining [28]. - Shanghai has optimized its property tax pilot policy, temporarily exempting certain residents from property tax for their first and second homes under specific conditions [28]. Company Dynamics - Financing activities remain active, with quality real estate companies actively distributing dividends. For instance, China Overseas Development has issued bonds with significant payouts [33]. - The SW Real Estate Index rose by 0.71%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which fell by 0.44%, indicating a stronger performance of the real estate sector compared to the broader market [38].