Core Insights - The pressure of rising storage prices has begun to affect the consumer electronics sector, with major products like smartphones and laptops initiating price adjustments [1] - Leading PC manufacturers such as Lenovo, Dell, and HP have collectively raised prices by approximately 500 to 1500 yuan, while several new domestic smartphone models have increased prices by about 100 to 600 yuan [1] - AIoT chip manufacturers are experiencing varied impacts from the rise in storage prices, while companies in the supply chain, such as chip testing firms, are presented with new opportunities [1] - Analysts from brokerage firms suggest that a comprehensive and broad-based increase in storage prices is likely to materialize by 2026, driven by demand mismatches, capital expenditures, and technological migration, with the cycle potentially lasting until late 2026 or even 2027 [1]

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 全球存储产业链大涨解读及长鑫招股书梳理 20260104 摘要 Q&A 近期存储行业的市场表现如何? 近期存储行业在美股市场表现强劲,美光和闪迪的股价分别上涨超过10%和15%。 主要原因是市场对 2026年第一季度合约价格涨幅预期上调。自 2025年 9 月以来, 存储价格已经开始上涨,并在 2025年第一季度延续这一趋势。目前,NAND 和 DRAM 的涨幅均超出市场预期。 更多一 存储市场供需紧张推动价格超预期上涨,DRAM 和 NAND 闪存价格在 2025 . 年一季度持续上涨,部分 DRAM 产品涨幅高达 70%,NAND 闪存预计上涨 33%-38%，远超此前预期。 三星定价策略对存储行业影响显著,其根据供需情况调整合约价格,并设 ● 定高于市场预期的价格,同时 H200 出货拉动存储需求,预计带来约 200 亿颗芯片需求,上调 2026年 Q1 存储价格预测。 美光公司一季度业绩远超预期,预计收入中值为 187 亿美元,毛利率高达 . 68%,EPS 远超预期,受益于产品价格大幅上涨,预计 2026年利润或达 500 亿美元，估值有较大 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The storage industry is experiencing a significant price increase, with major manufacturers revising Q4 contract prices upward. Hynix anticipates a price increase of 30-40% for DRAM in Q1 2026, while consumer-grade NAND is expected to rise by 30% and enterprise-grade even higher. DRAM prices may exceed a 40% increase, with the price hike cycle expected to last until at least mid-2027 [1][2]. Key Insights - Domestic storage module manufacturers are projected to achieve profitability by Q3 2025, benefiting from unexpected price increases that began in September. Q4 contract prices are also expected to rise significantly, leading to a potential profit of 15-20 billion yuan in Q4, which could annualize to a profit of around 100 billion yuan in 2026. Current PE ratios are below 15 times [1][2]. - Micron is expected to report a profit of approximately $50 billion in 2026, with the potential for upward revisions in performance expectations due to sustained price increases. The current PE ratio is around 5 times, indicating significant upside potential for the stock [1][4]. Automotive Storage Market - The automotive storage market is anticipated to see substantial price increases, with Micron predicting a 70% rise in Q1 2026. Automotive storage prices are expected to be higher than consumer products due to stricter safety requirements, with potential price increases of two to three times compared to current levels [1][5]. - Beijing Junzheng is highlighted as a key investment opportunity, with projected profits of 1.3 billion yuan if DRAM prices increase by 50%, 2.1 billion yuan if prices double, and 3.7 billion yuan if prices triple. The current valuation is low, around 20 times PE [1][5]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The expansion of domestic manufacturers like Changxin and Yangtze is not expected to significantly impact global storage prices, as their combined capacity accounts for only about 10% of the market. The release of additional capacity will take time and will not hinder the overall industry from benefiting from the current supply shortage [3][6][7]. Recommended Companies - Focus on the following categories of companies: 1. Storage module companies: Jiangbolong, Demingli, Xiangnong Xinchang, Baiwei Storage, Kaipu Cloud, and Shikong Technology, which are expected to release significant profits due to unexpected contract price increases in Q1 [3][8]. 2. Storage design manufacturers: Zhaoyi Innovation, Puran Co., Ju Cheng Co., and Dongxing Co. [3][8]. 3. Automotive-related companies: Beijing Junzheng, noted for its low valuation and potential profit elasticity [3][8]. 4. Key equipment suppliers: Weidao Nano, Tuo Jing Technology, and Zhongwei Company, along with core industry chain targets like Jinghe Integration and Huicheng Co. [3][8]. 5. Photolithography industry chain: Maolai Optical, Huicheng Vacuum, and Wavelength Optoelectronics, which have made significant progress in domestic production and have low stock prices [3][8].

Group 1: Domestic Smartphone Market Performance - In November 2025, the domestic smartphone shipment volume reached 30.16 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, with 5G smartphones accounting for 27.61 million units, up 1.1%, representing 91.6% of total shipments [1] - From January to November 2025, the total smartphone shipment volume was 282 million units, a 0.9% increase year-on-year, with 5G smartphones making up 244 million units, a 1.3% increase, constituting 86.6% of total shipments [1] - In November 2025, the number of new smartphone models launched was 31, a decrease of 27.9% year-on-year, with 5G models totaling 24, an increase of 26.3%, representing 77.4% of new models [1] Group 2: Domestic Brand Performance - In November 2025, domestic brand smartphone shipments were 23.23 million units, a year-on-year decline of 12.6%, accounting for 77.7% of total shipments [1] - From January to November 2025, domestic brand smartphone shipments totaled 241 million units, a 1.2% increase year-on-year, representing 85.4% of total shipments [2] - The number of new models from domestic brands launched from January to November 2025 was 451, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, constituting 95.1% of total new models [2] Group 3: Smart Device Market Trends - In November 2025, the smart smartphone shipment volume was 28.75 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, making up 95.3% of total shipments [2] - From January to November 2025, the smart smartphone shipment volume was 262 million units, a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, representing 92.8% of total shipments [2] - The number of new smart smartphone models launched from January to November 2025 was 309, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, accounting for 65.2% of total new models [2] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - Multiple institutions predict a decline in smartphone and laptop shipments in 2026 due to rising storage prices, with a forecasted year-on-year decrease of 2% for smartphones and 2.4% for laptops [3] - The increase in DRAM and NAND Flash prices is expected to significantly raise the overall cost of smartphones and laptops, leading manufacturers to raise prices, particularly affecting low-end models [3] - If supply-demand imbalances worsen, shipment volumes may face further pressure, with the laptop market experiencing dual pressures from rising costs and weak demand [3]

Group 1: Market Conditions and Pricing - The supply of storage wafers is expected to remain tight, with limited incremental contribution to output in 2026 due to the cautious capacity expansion strategy of major manufacturers [2] - According to CFM's forecast, the price increase for Mobile eMMC/UFS in Q1 2026 is projected to be between 25% and 30%, while LPDDR4X/5X is expected to rise by 30% to 35% [2] - PC DDR5/LPDDR5X prices are anticipated to increase by 30% to 35%, and cSSD prices are expected to rise by 25% to 30% [2] Group 2: Supply Chain and Procurement - The company has established long-term direct cooperation with major global storage wafer manufacturers, ensuring a diversified supply chain and a competitive advantage in wafer supply [3] - Supplier information is disclosed in public documents such as the prospectus [3] Group 3: Product Development and Competitive Advantage - The self-developed main control chip plays a critical role in managing data between storage particles and CPUs, significantly impacting overall performance [3] - The company has deployed over 100 million self-developed main control chips by the end of Q3, with UFS4.1 products gaining recognition from major storage manufacturers and Tier 1 clients [3] - The enterprise storage products have been integrated into the supply chains of leading internet companies, covering various sectors including telecommunications and server manufacturers [3] Group 4: Disclosure and Compliance - The investor relations activity did not involve any undisclosed significant information [3]

Group 1 - The storage market in Shenzhen Huaqiangbei has seen a "daily price change" become the norm, with the PC industry being the first to feel the impact of rising costs [1] - Due to the surge in DRAM and SSD prices, several overseas distributors indicate that prices for certain laptops and commercial PCs will undergo a new adjustment cycle by the end of this year to early next year, with expected increases ranging from 10% to 20% [1] - The most affected products are mainstream lightweight laptops and high-spec office computers with standard configurations of 16GB or more RAM [1] Group 2 - In the highly competitive smartphone market, price increases are occurring in a more subtle manner [1] - Xiaomi executives have acknowledged the significant rise in BOM costs and have repeatedly warned about industry price pressures [1] - Lenovo's management has expressed confidence, stating that they have taken proactive inventory measures and will not pass the pressure onto consumers in the short term due to sufficient stock [1] Group 3 - There is currently no clear indication of when the price increase trend will peak, with industry experts predicting that the structural imbalance caused by AI demand will be difficult to alleviate in the next 6 to 12 months [2] - High storage prices are expected to persist until 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that since Q2 2025, the mainstream storage prices have experienced significant absolute increases due to "supply optimization and AI-driven demand" [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The market has fully transitioned into a "seller's market" by Q4 2025, with steep price increases observed [1] - Despite the current seller's market, the industry is still in the early stages of a super cycle, suggesting continued growth potential [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - High visibility of shortages is expected over the next six months, supporting a positive outlook for mainstream storage DRAM/NAND and niche storage prices in the first half of 2026 [1] - Contract prices are anticipated to rise rapidly, aiming to catch up with the increases in spot prices, indicating sustained demand exceeding supply at least until the end of 2026 [1]

Group 1: Market Trends and Supply Chain - The company is the second largest independent memory manufacturer globally and the largest in China, establishing long-term direct cooperation with major memory wafer suppliers through Long-Term Supply Agreements (LTA) and Memorandums of Understanding (MOU) to ensure stable supply of memory wafers [3] - AI technology is driving a surge in storage capacity demand, coupled with tight supply of high-capacity HDDs, leading cloud service providers to shift towards NAND Flash, which is expected to see explosive demand [2] Group 2: Pricing and Sales Strategy - The company determines product sales prices based on industry practices and customer characteristics, using framework agreements and order fulfillment, with prices dynamically adjusted according to market conditions [4] Group 3: Product Development and Performance - As of the end of Q3, the company has deployed over 100 million self-developed main control chips, which utilize advanced foundry processes and proprietary algorithms, leading to significant performance and power consumption advantages [5] - The enterprise storage business is experiencing rapid growth, supported by collaborations with major clients in telecommunications, internet companies, and server manufacturers, with the company ranking third in total capacity for enterprise SATA SSDs in China as of H1 2025, and first among domestic brands [6] Group 4: UFS4.1 Product Commercialization - The company is among a few globally capable of developing UFS4.1 products at the chip level, with its UFS4.1 products recognized for superior process, read/write speed, and stability, accelerating the adoption process with major Tier 1 clients [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent adjustment in the technology sector, particularly the decline of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index ETF (588870), which has dropped for four consecutive days, with a peak decline of nearly 2% [1] - The Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index ETF (588870) has seen a net inflow of over 91 million yuan in the last ten days, indicating strong investor interest despite the recent downturn [1] - The ETF's share growth for the year has reached 318 million shares, with a growth rate exceeding 147%, leading its peers in this regard [1] Group 2 - In the context of the popular components of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index ETF, stocks in the photovoltaic equipment sector have been negatively impacted, with notable declines such as a 13% drop for Canadian Solar and over 6% for Trina Solar [3] - Conversely, stocks like Cambricon Technologies and Tuojing Technology have seen increases of over 2%, while SMIC has risen by over 1% [3] - The trading volume for the top stocks in the index shows significant activity, with Canadian Solar recording a transaction volume of 5.38 billion yuan despite its decline [4] Group 3 - Tesla is preparing to expand its Texas Gigafactory with a new facility dedicated to the mass production of its humanoid robot, Optimus, aiming for an annual production capacity of 10 million units by 2027 [5] - The price of storage components continues to rise, with DDR5 average prices increasing from $7.676 in September to $20.938 by November 7, indicating a supply-demand imbalance expected to last until 2026 [5] - The semiconductor manufacturing equipment imports in September reached $5.76 billion, marking a 35% year-on-year increase, reflecting ongoing investment in domestic semiconductor manufacturing [6] Group 4 - Recent government initiatives emphasize the integration of AI with manufacturing, aiming to accelerate breakthroughs in core technologies and enhance the industrialization of AI [7] - The prediction for adjustments in the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index indicates the potential inclusion of stocks like Aojie Technology and Shengke Communication, while the CSI 300 is expected to adjust 11 stocks [8][9] - The Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index ETF (588870) tracks the 50 largest and most liquid stocks on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, covering various sectors including electronics, pharmaceuticals, and machinery [10]

Core Insights - Storage product prices have not significantly decreased during the Double Eleven shopping festival, with some products even increasing in price compared to early November [3][4][5] - The price of DRAM and NAND flash memory has been rising due to increased demand from AI computing, leading to a supply shortage in the market [6][7] Price Trends - Many storage products on Tmall and JD have seen price increases since October, with some products experiencing price hikes of over 40% [5][6] - Specific examples include: - A G.Skill DDR5 24G×2 memory kit priced at 1899 yuan, up 400 yuan since early October [3] - An Adata DDR5 16G memory stick currently priced at 759 yuan, compared to 499-799 yuan in late October [4] - A Samsung DDR5 16G memory stick now at 849 yuan, up from below 500 yuan in early October [5] Market Dynamics - The increase in storage prices is attributed to a structural shift in production capacity towards server storage, impacting the supply for mobile and PC products [7] - TrendForce reports that the average price of DDR5 16G memory has risen by 4.24%, exceeding 23 USD, indicating a broader trend of price increases in the memory market [6][7] Stock Performance - Companies in the storage sector, such as Jiangbo Long, have seen stock prices rise significantly, with Jiangbo Long's stock increasing by 6.21% to reach a historical high [7] - Other related stocks have experienced fluctuations, with some, like Zhaoyi Innovation, seeing slight declines after reaching high prices [7]