近些年，国内居民存款热情在不断攀升。2025年上半年，中国居民银行存款暴增10.77万亿元，创下历史性新高！居民爱存钱的原因是为了应对子女教育、 房子装修、看病抓药、养老等未来潜在的费用支出。此外，现在股市、银行理财、公募基金等高收益品种的风险在上升，弄不好会亏掉本金，还不如把钱存 在银行里面，至少本金和利息是有保障的。 而对于当前存款市场的趋势，有业内人士提醒：下半年开始，持有定期存款的人，建议做好两手准备，一个是存款利率会越来越低，另一个是银行破产倒闭 风险在上升，很多人还未察觉。让我们一起来了分析一下： 准备一：存款利息收入越来越低 从2024年开始，国内银行业加快了降息的步伐。通常是国有银行率先下调存款利率，之后各家中小银行也纷纷跟着下调存款利率。现在各档存款利率已经创 下历史新低。以1年期定期存款为例，之前的利率是2.25%，现在已经跌到了1.35%。如果把10万元存入银行，每年利息收入就较过去减少了900元。 而导致存款利息收入越来越低的原因有三个：首先，银行希望通过下调存款利率，来迫使储户把钱从银行里面取出来，用于投资和消费，这样可以刺激经济 的快速增长。 再者，银行存款利率下调，贷款市场利率也 ...

今年以来A股先抑后扬，年初和4月份出现一轮调整，此后逐步企稳上扬，"扶摇直上"甚至创 10年新高。 剔除今年上市的新股后，5359只A股个股今年以来平均涨幅达33%，A股强势表现之下牛 股辈出， 有398只股票今年以来股价已经翻倍，1276只股票涨幅超过50% 。不过，也有 1059只股票（占比约20%）下跌。 从翻倍牛股的行业发布来看，以机械设备行业牛股最多（46只），其次是在电子行业（31 只），汽车行业也有28只个股已翻倍 。退市监管力度加大之下，部分ST股票跌幅较大，"紫 天退"以及9只ST股票跌幅超过50%。 那么A股股民们今年以来收益如何呢？Wind数据显示，A股流通市值已从去年末的77.55万亿 元，增加至今年9月26日的94.52万亿元，增加16.97万亿元。而据华西证券李立峰测算，流通 市值口径下，今年二季度末个人投资者持股占比30.88%。以此计算，个人投资者持有的流通 市值约增加5.24万亿元。而中国结算的数据显示去年末A股个人投资者总数为2.36亿人。 这意 味着截至9月26日，今年以来A股人均赚2.22万元 。 近期，股市、基金理财表现不错，本期《21理财私房课》给大家盘点一下今年以 ...

Group 1: Real Estate Market Trends - Since 2021, domestic housing prices have entered a long-term adjustment phase, with an average decline of over 30% nationwide as of 2023 [1][3] - Major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen have joined the price adjustment trend, following declines in second and third-tier cities [1] - Some third and fourth-tier cities have seen prices drop to levels where homes can be purchased for tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands [1] Group 2: Bank Deposit Rates and Economic Challenges - Starting in 2023, domestic deposit rates have entered a long-term adjustment phase, with one-year fixed deposit rates dropping from 2.25% to 1.35%, resulting in a decrease of 900 yuan in interest income for a 100,000 yuan deposit [3][6] - The decline in deposit rates poses significant challenges for elderly individuals and those relying on interest income, as their purchasing power diminishes [6] - The overall economic environment is characterized by slowing income growth and shrinking consumer demand, making it difficult for new entrepreneurs to succeed [8] Group 3: Investment Risks and Market Performance - Many individuals are turning to high-yield investment products like stocks and funds due to low deposit interest, but these come with high risks, with many funds experiencing losses of 20-30% in 2024 [10][12] - The majority of stock market participants are currently facing losses, with few managing to outperform inflation due to poor trading strategies [10] - There is a growing concern regarding the performance of bank wealth management products, particularly those rated R2 and below, which have also shown losses due to declining money market yields and rising bond market risks [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Macro factors include China's September LPR remaining unchanged, potential bank deposit - rate cuts in Q4, and various overseas trade policies such as US tariff hikes and South Korea's anti - dumping duties. Supply has been rising since mid - May, inventory has increased significantly, and costs and demand have changed. Technically, the manganese silicon main contract's weekly K - line is bearish. The market is expected to be weak after the holiday, and it is recommended to reduce or empty positions [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Macro**: China's September LPR: 5 - year above at 3.5%, 1 - year at 3%. Guangdong prepared for Typhoon "Hua Jiasha". More banks may cut deposit rates in Q4. Overseas, the US will impose high tariffs on certain products from October 1, and South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on steel products [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Production has been rising since mid - May, inventory increased significantly. Imported manganese ore port inventory decreased by 25.3 tons, and hot metal production returned to previous levels. Inner Mongolia's spot profit is - 80 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is - 190 yuan/ton. HeSteel Group's September silicon - manganese price is 6000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton [6]. - **Technical**: The manganese silicon main contract's weekly K - line is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy**: Before the holiday, funds reduced positions, market sentiment declined, and the sector was weak. After the holiday, prices are expected to be weak. It is recommended to reduce or empty positions [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 26, the silicon - manganese futures contract's open interest decreased by 50,300 lots to 501,000 lots, and the 5 - 1 contract spread increased by 8 points to 46. Manganese silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 4,563 to 56,113, and the manganese silicon - ferrosilicon January contract spread decreased by 8 points to 220 [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 26, Inner Mongolia's silicon - manganese spot price was 5,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 138 yuan/ton, up 56 points [23]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Industry**: Manganese silicon inventory increased rapidly, and production declined from its peak. The national 187 - enterprise sample's capacity utilization was 44.18%, down 1.50%. Daily production was 29,490 tons, down 335 tons. Five major steel products' silicon - manganese weekly demand was 122,484 tons, up 0.87%, and national production was 206,430 tons, down 1.12% [25]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, the national 63 - enterprise sample's inventory was 233,800 tons, up 34,900 tons. Inner Mongolia decreased by 1,500 tons, Ningxia increased by 30,600 tons, etc. [30]. - **Upstream**: As of September 26, Tianjin Port's South32 South African semi - carbonate lump was 34.3 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.2. Ningxia and Inner Mongolia's electricity prices were flat. Imported manganese ore port inventory decreased by 25.3 tons to 427.2 tons. South African manganese ore arrivals decreased by 25%, while Australian, Gabonese, and Ghanaian arrivals increased [34][40]. - **Profit**: On September 26, the northern region's spot production cost was 5,830 yuan/ton, up 20, and the profit was - 140 yuan/ton, down 50. The southern region's cost was 6,230 yuan/ton, up 20, and the profit was - 530 yuan/ton, down 40 [44]. - **Downstream**: Daily hot metal production was 2.4236 million tons, up 13,400 tons week - on - week and 175,000 tons year - on - year. HeSteel Group's September silicon - manganese price was 6,000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton [48].

Core Viewpoint - Since September, local small and medium-sized banks have been continuously lowering deposit interest rates to alleviate net interest margin pressure and follow the lead of larger banks [1][3]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - On September 25, several banks in Henan, including Luoyang Rural Commercial Bank, announced reductions in RMB deposit rates, with the highest cut reaching 35 basis points [2][3]. - The new rates for fixed-term deposits at Luoyang Rural Commercial Bank are now 0.75% for three months, 1.00% for six months, 1.30% for one year, and 1.35% for two years, reflecting a reduction of 15 basis points [3]. - Other banks, such as Jieyang Rural Commercial Bank and Shanghai Huarui Bank, have also lowered rates across various deposit products, indicating a broader trend among local banks to adjust rates following national banks [3]. Group 2: Retail Deposit Trends - There is a noticeable outflow of retail deposits as customers shift to investment products with higher returns, such as cash management and fixed-income bank wealth management products, which offer annual yields of 2% to 3% [2][5]. - Retail deposit growth has significantly slowed, with banks facing challenges in attracting new customers and retaining existing deposits [5][6]. - Data shows that major banks like China Merchants Bank and Ping An Bank experienced a decline in retail deposit growth rates in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, with decreases of 3.43 and 3.73 percentage points, respectively [8]. Group 3: Wealth Management Strategies - In response to declining retail deposits, banks are focusing on expanding their wealth management services, leveraging the recent bullish trends in capital markets [9][10]. - Wealth management products, particularly those linked to equity funds, are becoming key revenue drivers for banks as they seek to retain customer assets [9]. - The "fixed income plus" product category is seen as a new pathway for banks to attract deposits in a low-interest-rate environment, highlighting the need for diversified investment options [10].

与此同时，证券时报记者从多家银行基层零售客户经理处获悉，近期零售存款的流失较为明显。而做好 财富管理，以做大管理客户资产规模（AUM）来减缓存款流失带来的负面影响，成为众多银行当前主 要策略。 从"比价效应"上看，年化收益率接近2%至3%的现金管理类、固收类银行理财产品，以及混合型、股票 型基金产品的可观表现，也让不少银行客户改变投资思路，纷纷买入。 中小银行存款利率"补降" 近期，为缓解净息差压力、紧跟大中型银行步伐，一批地方中小银行的存款利率陆续进入"1字头"时 代。 | | | 部分上市银行零售存款增速对比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 银行 | 2025年上半年增幅 | 2024年上半年增幅 | 同比少增(个百分点) | | 招商银行 | 5.43% | 8.86% | 3.43 | | 平安银行 | 3.12% | 6.85% | 3.73 | | 北京银行 | 8.13% | 13.54% | 5.41 | | 宁波银行 | 6.66% | 16.53% | 9.87 | | 杭州银行 | 10.68% | 15.25% | 4.57 | | 苏州银行 | 11. ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from the Bank of China Research Institute indicates that more banks are likely to lower deposit interest rates in the fourth quarter of 2025, particularly for relatively high medium- and long-term deposit rates [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Adjustments - More banks are expected to join the trend of lowering deposit interest rates in the fourth quarter [1] - The focus will be on reducing relatively high medium- and long-term deposit rates [1] Group 2: Regulatory Actions - Regulatory authorities are likely to continue correcting phenomena such as "deposit regularization" and "manual interest supplementation" [1] - These actions aim to enhance the efficiency of monetary policy transmission and guide banks in reducing funding costs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the current trend of declining bank deposit rates, with many banks offering rates below 2%, while some private banks still provide higher rates for large time deposits, indicating a competitive landscape in the banking sector [1][2]. Group 1: Deposit Rates and Products - Many private banks, such as Huari Bank and Webank, offer large time deposits with interest rates exceeding 2%, with Huari Bank providing a 24-month deposit at 2.35% and a 3-year deposit also at 2.35% [1]. - The demand for high-interest products is strong, with limited availability and quick sales, making them popular in the secondary market [1]. - Webank has introduced a service for investors to pre-order large time deposits based on specific interest rate and term criteria, enhancing customer engagement [2]. Group 2: Challenges Faced by Private Banks - Private banks generally have higher deposit rates than traditional banks, but their competitive advantage is diminishing due to continuous interest rate cuts [2]. - The lack of physical branches and brand influence poses significant customer acquisition and deposit challenges for many private banks [2]. - There is a noticeable disparity in deposit rates among private banks, with some, like WeBank, offering lower rates comparable to state-owned banks, reflecting different operational models [2][3]. Group 3: Interest Margin and Pricing Strategies - Despite higher liability costs, private banks maintain a net interest margin that is significantly higher than other types of commercial banks, although their net interest margin has seen the largest decline among all bank categories [3]. - As of Q2 2025, the net interest margin for private banks was reported at 3.91%, down 0.04 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating pressure on profitability [3]. - The current environment compels private banks to adopt more rational deposit pricing strategies due to difficulties in finding high-yield assets to match liabilities [3]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - To address increasing deposit acquisition pressure, private banks are encouraged to develop open banking ecosystems and collaborate with third-party platforms to expand customer acquisition channels [4]. - There is a need for innovation in personal finance and wealth management products to provide differentiated solutions and enhance customer loyalty [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent half-year reports from A-share listed banks indicate a rebound in deposit growth, with total deposits reaching 213.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.40 trillion yuan year-on-year, representing an 8.33% growth. However, some small and medium-sized banks are experiencing a slowdown in deposit growth, with over one-third of these banks reporting a quarter-on-quarter decline in deposits [1] Group 1: Deposit Growth Trends - A-share listed banks have seen a total deposit balance of 213.17 trillion yuan, up by 16.40 trillion yuan year-on-year, marking an 8.33% increase [1] - 16 out of 42 A-share listed banks reported a quarter-on-quarter decline in deposit scale, indicating challenges faced by smaller banks [1] Group 2: Economic and Competitive Factors - The decline in deposits for small and medium-sized banks is attributed to changes in the economic and financial environment, including multiple rounds of interest rate cuts leading to a low-interest-rate era for bank deposits [1] - As of September, most banks offer three-year fixed deposit rates between 1.25% and 1.50%, and five-year rates between 1.30% and 1.55%, reducing the attractiveness of bank deposits for residents [1] - The recovery of the stock market has led residents to withdraw deposits from banks to invest in higher-yield financial products, including wealth management, stocks, and bonds [1] Group 3: Strategies for Small and Medium-sized Banks - Small and medium-sized banks need to balance deposit stability and cost control by optimizing their liability structure and reducing funding costs to enhance profitability [2] - Strategies include implementing differentiated interest rates for long-term fixed deposits and adjusting the ratio of fixed to current deposits to manage liquidity effectively [2] - Developing structured deposit products can help retain funds while offering higher returns, minimizing the outflow of deposits to other investment avenues [2] Group 4: Enhancing Service and Customer Retention - Improving service capabilities is essential for small and medium-sized banks to curb deposit outflows, which includes expanding customer outreach and enhancing service quality [3] - Banks should focus on digital financial services and wealth management to attract and retain deposits, reducing reliance on traditional lending [3] - Tailored services for different customer segments, such as corporate and individual clients, can enhance deposit stability and attract long-term funds [3] Group 5: Cost Control and Market Environment Optimization - Strengthening cost control and optimizing the deposit market environment are crucial for small and medium-sized banks [4] - Banks should manage liability quality, avoid over-reliance on high-cost funding, and reduce interest expenses through various measures [4] - Enhancing operational efficiency through digitalization and optimizing branch layouts can lower costs and improve fund utilization [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend of decreasing deposit interest rates among domestic small and medium-sized banks is a response to the actions of major state-owned banks, aimed at improving profitability and enhancing the ability to withstand systemic risks [1][5]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Changes - In August 2023, several domestic small and medium-sized banks announced reductions in deposit interest rates, following similar moves by the six major state-owned banks [1]. - From 2024, deposit rates are expected to enter a downward trend, with the three-year fixed deposit rate dropping from 3.05% to 1.55%, representing a nearly 50% decrease over two years [5]. - The average annual interest income from a 100,000 yuan deposit over three years has decreased from 3,050 yuan to 1,550 yuan, a reduction of 1,500 yuan [5]. Group 2: Recommendations for Depositors - Depositors are advised to consider several strategies in response to declining interest rates, such as opting for three-year large-denomination certificates of deposit to lock in rates [6]. - It is suggested that depositors diversify their holdings by placing funds in joint-stock banks or city commercial banks, which typically offer higher rates than state-owned banks [6]. - Other investment options include structured deposits, R1-rated bank wealth management products, government bonds, and bond funds, which are considered low-risk alternatives [6]. Group 3: Emergency Fund Preparation - Depositors should maintain an emergency fund due to the low liquidity of fixed deposits, with 67.3% of fixed deposit customers having withdrawn funds early for emergencies [9]. - The current interest rate for demand deposits is only 0.05%, leading to significant potential losses if fixed deposits are withdrawn prematurely [9]. - Strategies such as the "ladder deposit method" and purchasing large-denomination certificates of deposit with transferability features are recommended to ensure liquidity [9]. Group 4: Risks of Small and Medium-Sized Banks - The risk of deposit loss is increasing as more small and medium-sized banks face bankruptcy, with 105 banks approved for dissolution in 2024 [11]. - Depositors are advised to spread their funds across multiple banks, keeping deposits below 500,000 yuan per bank to ensure full insurance coverage [11]. - It is recommended to prioritize deposits in state-owned or joint-stock banks to minimize the risk of bank failure [11]. Group 5: Market Opportunities - There are significant bubbles in both the stock and real estate markets, with high price-to-income ratios indicating potential for future corrections [14]. - Depositors are encouraged to prepare for investment opportunities in the stock and real estate markets when prices reach historical lows [14].