欧洲央行降息

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巴克莱修正预期:欧洲央行或12月降息而非9月
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-26 05:21
周二(8月26日)亚盘早盘,欧元兑美元上涨,目前交投于1.16附近,截止北京时间11:45分,欧元兑美 元报价1.1628,涨幅0.11%,上一交易日欧元兑美元收盘为1.1615。巴克莱目前认为,欧洲央行有可能 选择在12月降息一次,而不是此前预测的9月降息。 该行经济学家马里亚诺·西纳说,这一修正考虑到了下半年经济活动的疲软,这是由贸易政策的持续拖 累和美国早些时候提前进口的影响造成的。巴克莱预计,到12月,有关贸易逆风的信号将更加清晰,对 供应链中断影响通胀的担忧也会减少。此外,对2026年财政计划不会重燃通胀压力的信心可能增强,将 支持降息25个基点。巴克莱预计,到2026年,欧洲央行的终端存款利率将保持在1.75%。 欧元兑美元阻力位首先为7月24日创下的周高点1.1788,其上方是7月1日的年内高点1.1830,而2021年9 月3日的高点1.1909则位于心理关口1.2000下方不远处。另一方面,初步支撑位在100日简单移动平均线 (SMA)1.1460,其次是8月1日的底部1.1391和5月29日的周低点1.1210。动量表现缺乏说服力:相对强 弱指数(RSI)已降至52以下,表明上行动能正在减 ...
欧元区薪资加速上涨 欧洲央行降息或更趋谨慎
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 16:31
(文章来源:新华财经) 新华财经北京8月22日电欧元区薪资增长的一项关键指标大幅上升,使欧洲央行在进一步降息问题上更 趋谨慎。 欧洲央行周五表示,第二季度谈判工资同比增长3.95%,高于第一季度的2.46%,但仍低于2024年创下 的5.4%峰值。欧洲央行将通胀稳定在2%的信心,依赖于薪资涨幅的放缓以及劳动密集型服务业目前仍 接近3%的价格涨幅的回落。欧洲央行针对20国的薪资追踪指标显示,薪资增速将在明年初显著回落。 市场普遍预计欧洲央行将在9月将关键存款利率维持在2%。 ...
内需复苏成亮点 欧洲央行降息路径生变
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-21 04:13
Group 1 - The euro against the US dollar has seen a slight decline, currently trading around 1.1644, down 0.06% from the previous close of 1.1651, indicating a stable but cautious market sentiment [1] - Eurozone retail sales increased by 0.3% in June, reversing the 0.3% decline in May, suggesting a recovery in consumer demand [1] - Strong domestic demand is becoming increasingly important for economic growth, potentially supporting growth in the second half of 2025 despite external challenges such as tariffs and a strong euro [1] Group 2 - The current trading range for the euro/dollar exchange rate is between 1.1455 and 1.1829, indicating a period of volatility without clear breakout directions [2] - The price movement is constrained by the Bollinger Bands, suggesting that the market may continue to oscillate within this range until clearer market drivers emerge [2]
巴克莱:欧洲央行可能选择12月降息
news flash· 2025-08-04 04:53
Core Viewpoint - Barclays predicts that the European Central Bank (ECB) may opt for a rate cut in December instead of September, reflecting concerns over economic activity in the second half of the year [1] Economic Activity - The adjustment in Barclays' forecast is attributed to weak economic activity in the latter half of the year, influenced by ongoing trade policy challenges and the earlier-than-expected imports from the U.S. [1] Trade and Inflation - By December, clearer signals regarding trade headwinds are expected, which may alleviate concerns about supply chain disruptions impacting inflation [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - Confidence in the 2026 fiscal plan not reigniting inflationary pressures is likely to support a 25 basis point rate cut [1] - Barclays anticipates that the terminal deposit rate of the ECB will remain at 1.75% by 2026 [1]
【环球财经】欧元区7月通胀超预期 支持欧洲央行9月暂停降息
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-01 14:01
Group 1 - Eurozone inflation rate remained stable at 2.0% in July, confirming the European Central Bank's (ECB) moderate view on prices and supporting its decision to maintain interest rates after significant cuts [1] - Core inflation rate also held steady at 2.3%, with service prices slightly slowing but offset by a rebound in goods inflation [1] - ECB President Lagarde stated that the bank is in a "favorable position" regarding inflation and will not react to minor deviations from the target [1] Group 2 - Eurozone economic activity in Q2 showed better-than-expected growth, with July manufacturing PMI rising to 49.8, the highest level since July 2021 [2] - Industrial output increased for the fifth consecutive month, although the output index fell to 50.6, the lowest in four months [2] - Analysts noted that a framework trade agreement between the US and Europe could help reduce uncertainty, supporting the ongoing recovery in manufacturing [2] Group 3 - Future inflation may remain above ECB's expectations, indicating a need for caution regarding the re-pricing of ECB rate cut expectations [3] - The likelihood of further ECB rate cuts has decreased, with the core annual inflation rate holding at 2.3% and overall inflation expected to remain around 2% by year-end [3]
货币市场加大了对欧洲央行降息的押注,预计到2026年3月有90%的可能性降息25个基点。
news flash· 2025-08-01 13:56
货币市场加大了对欧洲央行降息的押注,预计到2026年3月有90%的可能性降息25个基点。 ...
交易员反向押注欧央行降息 200万欧元期权博2500万回报
智通财经网· 2025-08-01 11:01
Group 1 - Traders are positioning through options strategies in anticipation of a European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate cut, which could yield significant returns if the policy is implemented in the coming months [1] - Large bets have been placed this week related to options linked to the three-month Euro Interbank Offered Rate (Euribor), indicating strong market interest in potential rate changes [1] - If the ECB lowers the benchmark rate from the current 2% to 1.5% by December and maintains it until March next year, related investments could generate over €25 million (approximately $28.5 million) in profit, with a cost of only about €2 million [1] Group 2 - The ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that after a cumulative 200 basis points cut to the deposit rate within a year, policymakers may enter an observation period, yet the market still sees a 50% chance of a 25 basis point cut by year-end [1] - The monetary market's expectations for the interest rate path have shown volatility, with a previous prediction of a 1.5% rate by year-end shifting due to recent inflation indicators in parts of France and Germany [4] - A Bloomberg survey revealed that 20% of economists expect the benchmark rate to drop to 1.5% by the end of 2025, while others are split between maintaining the rate at 2% or reducing it by 25 basis points to 1.75%, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in rate expectations [4]
潘森宏观:欧元区强劲的就业市场不会阻碍9月降息
news flash· 2025-07-31 10:47
Core Viewpoint - The strong labor market in the Eurozone is unlikely to prevent the European Central Bank from lowering interest rates in September [1] Labor Market Summary - As of the end of Q2, the Eurozone saw a reduction of over 60,000 unemployed individuals, keeping the unemployment rate at a historical low of 6.2% [1] - This strong labor market may sustain robust wage growth, potentially increasing core inflation pressures [1] Wage Growth Summary - Wage growth is expected to remain strong but not at a level that would cause concern for European Central Bank officials, thus not hindering the possibility of a rate cut in September [1]
美欧贸易协议可能意味着欧洲央行长期暂停降息
news flash· 2025-07-28 14:48
Core Viewpoint - The trade agreement between the US and EU increases the likelihood that the European Central Bank (ECB) will not lower interest rates further, potentially delaying any rate cuts until December or maintaining rates throughout 2025 [1] Group 1: Trade Agreement Impact - The US-EU trade agreement may slightly raise the forecasts for growth and inflation in the Eurozone according to Abn Amro [1] - Prior to the trade agreement, Abn Amro had predicted that the ECB would ultimately lower rates in December [1] Group 2: ECB Rate Decisions - The ECB may wait until December to cut rates or could keep rates unchanged for the entirety of 2025 [1] - The balance of risks now leans towards the possibility that a rate cut may not occur at all [1]
欧央行鹰派管委Kazimir放话:9月降息需“经济巨变”
智通财经网· 2025-07-28 11:03
Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is not in a hurry to lower borrowing costs again unless there is a significant economic turnaround, as stated by Peter Kazimir, a member of the ECB's governing council [1] - The ECB maintained interest rates last week as expected, providing a slightly optimistic assessment of the Eurozone economy, which led investors to reduce bets on further easing [1] - Kazimir indicated that he does not foresee any major situations that would compel immediate action in September, unless there are signs of a significant labor market collapse [1] Group 2 - A recent trade agreement between the EU and the US is seen as a positive signal, reducing uncertainty for businesses, but its impact on inflation remains unclear [1] - Kazimir expressed that current inflation rates are unlikely to fall below the ECB's 2% target as they did in the decade before the pandemic [1] - Predictions suggest that inflation will drop below 2% next year and will not recover until 2027, raising concerns among some central bank governors about the potential for persistently weak price growth [2] - Kazimir does not see a lasting threat of inflation remaining below the target, suggesting that any such situation in the coming year should be temporary [2]