2025年，欧洲、美国、日本、韩国等多个地区和国家的主要股票指数创出历史新高。 2025年，欧洲、美国、日本、韩国等多个地区和国家的主要股票指数创出历史新高。其中，欧洲股市领涨全 球，德国、意大利等国家股票指数涨幅居前。在欧洲央行进入降息周期后，欧元区凭借更明确的政策路径和相对 低估值，成为全球资金的"避风港"和"价值洼地"，走出牛市行情。 （责任编辑：王治强 HF013） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容的准确性、 可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Natixis IM Solutions的Romain Aumond在一份报告中称，对欧洲央行对称通胀目标的保守解读将继续限 制过去一年半以来所采取的降息举措对收益率曲线长端的影响。该策略师称，这归因于德国和法国在 2026年的预期赤字，以及中期普遍缺乏财政整顿。他说："欧洲央行似乎还不愿承认公共支出未来几年 将对私人需求产生的挤出效应。"与市场一致，Natixis IM Solutions预计欧洲央行将在周四晚些时候维持 利率不变。（智通财经） ...

Group 1 - Economists predict that the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to raise interest rates, aligning with the views of influential committee member Isabel Schnabel, as inflation stabilizes around 2% [1][5] - A survey indicates that over 60% of respondents believe officials are more likely to increase rather than decrease borrowing costs, a significant shift from October when only one-third held this view [1] - Analysts are revising their forecasts due to the resilience of the Eurozone economy amid global trade tensions and geopolitical turmoil, with expectations for the first rate hike potentially occurring in the second half of 2027 [5][8] Group 2 - The ECB's current interest rates are viewed as appropriate, with most committee members stating that rates are at a "suitable level" [5] - Predictions suggest that the ECB will raise rates by 25 basis points in September and December 2027, although tighter financing conditions could pose headwinds to the economy [5][11] - Concerns remain regarding inflation in 2027, particularly with the delayed implementation of a new carbon pricing system in the EU, although most economists expect the ECB's inflation forecast for that year to remain at 1.9% [8][10] Group 3 - Approximately 45% of survey respondents believe that economic growth is primarily constrained by structural forces beyond the ECB's control, such as increased competition from China and high energy costs [14] - The ECB is expected to maintain its current stance until at least 2027, as monetary policy alone cannot address structural growth issues [14] - The impact of U.S. policies, both monetary and trade-related, is viewed as a significant threat to the Eurozone economy, alongside ongoing concerns regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [11][14]

Core Viewpoint - Metzler analyst Leon Ferdinand Bost predicts that the yield curve for Eurozone government bonds is expected to steepen, with the market underestimating the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - The two-year German government bond yield suggests a terminal rate of 2% for the ECB, but Metzler believes this is underestimated [1] - Growth and inflation risks are perceived to be skewed to the downside, influencing the ECB's potential actions [1] Group 2: Long-term Yield Forecasts - Driven by Germany's fiscal plans, the 10-year German government bond yield is expected to face upward pressure starting in Q2, projected to rise to 2.80% by the end of 2026 [1] - This forecast is slightly above the recent closing level of 2.749% and is anticipated to increase from approximately 2.50% in Q1, partly due to expected ECB rate cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is not considering further interest rate cuts at this time due to persistent core inflation above the target level of 2% [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - ECB member Martins Kazaks stated that discussions about lowering interest rates are premature as inflation remains a concern [1] - The ECB has already reduced the policy interest rate by half this year, but rates have remained unchanged since then [1] - The upcoming ECB meeting on December 18 will provide updated inflation forecasts for the next three years, which will be crucial for future monetary policy decisions [1] Group 2: Inflation Forecasts - According to the ECB's latest predictions, inflation is expected to be 1.7% in 2026 and rise to 1.9% in 2027 [1] - Kazaks emphasized the importance of focusing on the 2026 and 2027 inflation data, as monetary policy effects typically take one to two years to materialize [1] Group 3: Risks to Inflation - Kazaks acknowledged that the potential delay in the implementation of the EU carbon emissions trading system (ETS2) could help moderate inflation [2] - He highlighted that while certain downward risks to inflation are becoming clearer, such as policy adjustments and increased imports from China, upward risks like trade fragmentation should not be overlooked [2]

Core Viewpoint - Fidelity International's global macro and strategic asset allocation head, Salman Ahmed, predicts that a dovish shift by the Federal Reserve under its new chair will lead to interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Federal Reserve Outlook** - The current chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, will end his term in May next year, and it is expected that his successor will steer monetary policy towards a more accommodative stance [1][2]. - **European Central Bank Predictions** - Ahmed anticipates that the ECB will lower its deposit rate two to three times, reducing it from the current 2% to below 1.5% by the second half of next year [1][2]. - **Currency Forecast** - The company maintains a bullish stance on the euro, projecting that the euro will rise against the dollar to reach 1.25, significantly higher than the current level of approximately 1.1545 [1][2].

（文章来源：第一财经） 据报道，欧洲央行管委Kocher表示，欧洲央行降息步伐已接近尾声，欧洲央行必须做好应对潜在危机的 准备。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is showing an upward trend against the US Dollar, with the latest exchange rate at 1.1623, reflecting a 0.07% increase. Despite a bleak economic outlook, the European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to cut interest rates in the coming months [1]. Economic Outlook - The Eurozone's GDP for Q3 is expected to show slight growth of approximately 0.1%, which is more optimistic than the ECB's own forecast of flat GDP for the quarter [1]. - The ECB may view the current economic weakness as temporary, primarily impacted by a significant decline in manufacturing output [1]. Technical Analysis - The Euro/USD pair experienced a short-term upward adjustment after a previous decline, breaking through four-hour resistance levels, leading to a strong closing on the last trading day [1]. - On a monthly basis, the Euro is supported at the 1.1100 level, indicating a long-term bullish outlook above this position [2]. - Weekly analysis shows that the Euro is under pressure at the 1.1680 level, which serves as a critical support and resistance point for medium-term trends [1][2]. Short-term Analysis - Daily resistance for the Euro against the Dollar is at the 1.1680 level, with ongoing pressure below this point [2]. - Short-term support is identified in the 1.1590-1.1600 range, with expectations for adjustments based on this support level [2].

Core Insights - Despite a gloomy economic outlook, the European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to lower interest rates in the coming months [1] - The estimated GDP growth for the Eurozone in Q3 is approximately 0.1%, which is more optimistic than the ECB's own forecast of flat GDP for the quarter [1] - The ECB may view the current economic weakness as temporary, primarily driven by a significant decline in manufacturing output [1] - A substantial improvement in GDP data is required to increase the likelihood of the ECB lowering interest rates in December or early next year [1]

Group 1 - Traders are betting on options trading, anticipating that the European Central Bank (ECB) will unexpectedly lower interest rates multiple times before mid-next year, with a target of up to three 25 basis point cuts by June, significantly higher than the 10 basis points implied by the money market [1][3] - The most profitable outcome from these bets could yield nearly €9 million (approximately $10.5 million), which is over 30 times the initial investment, although the probability of success is less than 1% [1] - The total number of open contracts benefiting from a rate cut, expiring in June, has reached 1.35 million, more than double the level from five weeks ago, with the largest increase seen in contracts expiring in September, which rose by 50% [3] Group 2 - Following the ECB's reduction of the deposit rate to 2% in June, policymakers have indicated that the tightening cycle is nearing its end, while the market has gradually lowered the likelihood of further easing [3] - Economists predict that the ECB's deposit rate will remain at 2% until 2027, yet some analysts continue to forecast further rate cuts, with Morgan Stanley expecting the benchmark rate to drop to 1.5% by March due to anticipated economic slowdown and wage growth deceleration [3]