期货研究报告|宏观政策 2025-08-25 研究院 宏观组 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 核心观点 ◼ 核心变化：美联储转向鸽派 1）短期：释放 9 月降息的明确信号。鲍威尔认为限制性政策下，对于风险的平衡已经 打破，劳动力市场下行的风险上升（8 月初公布的非农就业报告大幅下修就业数字，关 注 9 月初非农报告低预期的可能）；而关税带来的通胀上升是一次性的（这点同 21 年对 于通胀上升是临时性的表述类似），即货币政策在 9 月份降息的可能性大幅上升。 2）长期：货币政策更强调就业，框架回到 2020年之前。新的货币政策框架删除对零利 率下限（ZLB）的描述；对于通胀，美联储删除了对于平均通胀目标的描述，回到了 灵活通胀目标；对于就业，美联储从劳动力市场充分就业的"不足"改回了"偏离"，即美 联储在经历了 2022 年通胀大幅上行的冲击后，再次弱化了通胀的影响，进一步强调了 劳动力市场的重要性。 ◼ 宏观策略：短期增加风险偏好 关注美联储资产负债表政策转向前的风险。 美元：市场风险偏好的短期提升，短期波动率多头（+VIX）暂止损观望；关 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-shares are expected to maintain a high-risk preference, and investment opportunities in innovative drugs, artificial intelligence, and rare earths are favored [12]. - Bond market yields may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range at a low level [12]. - In the context of the Fed's dovish stance, gold has the possibility to break through its previous high [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Market Performance - U.S. stocks rose, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changing by 3.87%, 2.43%, and 1.35% respectively. The Nasdaq China Technology Index changed by 4.25%, and the Hang Seng Index changed by 1.43% [2]. - A-shares generally rose, with the Wind All A Index rising 1.94%. Most major indices showed positive changes, and most sectors and industries also rose, with non-ferrous metals, machinery, and national defense and military industry leading the gains [3][4]. Bond Market Performance - Interest rate bond prices rose, and the yield curve steepened. The 10-year Treasury bond futures contract rose 0.19%, and the yield of the 10-year Treasury bond active bond decreased by 1.68 BP [5]. - Bond market leverage increased, and the central bank's open market operations had a net withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan [6][8]. - U.S. Treasury yields increased, and the curve shifted upward as a whole [9]. Foreign Exchange and Commodity Markets - The U.S. dollar depreciated, and the U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.43%. Gold prices rose, with London gold spot prices rising 1.49% and COMEX gold futures prices rising 1.29% [10]. Fed's Stance - The Fed's regulatory vice-chairman's remarks were more dovish than the market's mainstream expectations, and the market's mainstream expectation for the number of Fed rate cuts in 2025 remains 2 times [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the recent strengthening of the US dollar, it may face challenges due to potential dovish shifts from the Federal Reserve, which could lead to a faster-than-expected rate cut [1][2] - Standard Chartered Bank indicates that the recent weakness of the dollar may reflect market relief that the worst outcomes from trade negotiations are unlikely to occur, but attention is now shifting to the Federal Reserve [1][3] - Market expectations for the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting are low, with no rate cuts priced in for July and only a 16 basis point cut anticipated for September [1][2] Group 2 - The divergence among FOMC members has narrowed, focusing primarily on the impact of tariffs, with some members advocating for ignoring temporary price increases while others, including Chairman Powell, suggest that the Fed could have been more accommodative without tariffs [2] - Economic data, particularly the upcoming employment report, is expected to become a focal point, with Standard Chartered warning that downside risks may outweigh consensus expectations [3] - The dollar is expected to weaken moderately over the next few months, but significant declines will depend more on actual shifts in Federal Reserve policy rather than further trade negotiation news [3]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and the implications of financial pressure on the U.S. economy. Core Points and Arguments - Current U.S. economy may be in a state of stagflation, with upcoming CPI data and Q2 results likely leaning towards inflation, indicating significant financial pressure that could influence Federal Reserve decisions [1][2] - Financial pressure index is a crucial measure of financing conditions, default risk, and risk appetite, impacting economic conditions through short-term interest rates affecting long-term rates, which is a key focus for the Federal Reserve [1][3] - Financial market volatility can deteriorate consumer spending willingness, and tightening financial conditions may affect manufacturing investment [1][4] - Historical events over the past decade, such as China's economic slowdown and unexpected rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, have led to increased financial pressure, prompting a dovish shift in policy [1][5][6][7][8] - The Federal Reserve is expected to consider rate cuts in July, October, and December, with a higher probability of a cut in July, influenced by stock market pressures or issues with real interest rates [1][11] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The impact of tariffs on inflation is often temporary, and the Federal Reserve is likely to focus more on economic downturn risks rather than inflationary pressures [1][4] - The financial pressure index reflects the overall economic stability, and its increase has historically signaled a shift towards dovish policies by the Federal Reserve [1][9] - The Federal Reserve's past policy adjustments, including a significant rate hike in 2018 that led to a 20% drop in the stock market, illustrate the delicate balance between monetary policy and market stability [1][10] - Future predictions for 2025 suggest a shift from stagflation risks to economic weakness risks, with potential rate cuts anticipated based on market conditions and economic data [1][11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of tariffs on inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, highlighting a divergence in market expectations regarding rate cuts in 2025 due to financial pressures and the risk of stagflation [1][5]. Group 1: Financial Pressure as a Key Factor - In a stagflation environment, the Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing its dual mandate, with financial pressure emerging as a primary concern [2][48]. - The economic effects of tariffs are contributing to stagflation, as indicated by manufacturing PMI and short-term inflation expectations, suggesting that stagflation risks are increasing [2][48]. - The Federal Reserve's recent stance indicates a preference for a reactive approach rather than a preemptive one, focusing on the economic impact of tariffs and uncertainty in the economic outlook [7][48]. Group 2: Impact of Financial Pressure on Decision-Making - Sustained financial pressure may lead the Federal Reserve to consider policy adjustments, as rising financial pressure often signals economic downturn expectations [3][24]. - Historical instances show that rising financial pressure has been a significant condition for the Federal Reserve to adopt a dovish stance, such as during the 2015-2016 period and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic [3][28]. - The article emphasizes that financial conditions, including credit, valuation, and liquidity, are critical in assessing the overall financial pressure faced by the economy [24][25]. Group 3: Expectations for Rate Cuts in 2025 - The article anticipates that the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts in the third quarter of 2025, as the economic narrative shifts from stagflation to recession [4][35]. - The upcoming months will see market focus on the balance between inflation and economic slowdown, with expectations that if inflationary pressures ease while economic downturns persist, the Federal Reserve's primary concerns will shift accordingly [4][35]. - The probability of rate cuts may decrease if financial markets remain stable, but overall financial pressures are expected to trend upward, paving the way for potential rate cuts later in the year [4][35].