以下文章来源于盐财经 ，作者辰夕 泡泡玛特的热度，显然正在回落。 来源：盐财经 作者： 辰夕 编辑： 江江 去年12月，盐财经曾报道过一位靠倒卖泡泡玛特盲盒、一天净赚2万多元的"985"高校学生。 在他的记忆里，那时，他唯一要做的事就是想办法抢到货；只要抢到Labubu，尤其是搪胶系 列，转手就能赚钱，最贵的一只娃娃的利润接近2000元。 一年之后，泡泡玛特的境况已完全不同。 今年12月，原价594元一盒的Labubu坐坐派对搪胶毛绒系列，二手平台的均价已经从1478元 回落到632元左右；部分原价99元的单只款式甚至已经跌破原价，在闪购里最低只卖到82元。 盐财经 . 洞察趋势，睿智人生。《南风窗》旗下专业财经媒体。 如今，一位长期倒卖Labubu的黄牛告诉盐财经，现在国内已经不好做了。以"前方高能"系列 搪胶毛绒挂件为例，其官方定价为99元的盲盒，未拆封的不确定款式，只能卖到89元；只有 指定款式，才能勉强加价30元出手。 即便如此，利润也远不如去年，他反复强调一句话：现在赚的是小钱，行情早就不一样了。 labubu在二手平台的成交均价 就在今年12月底，辽宁一位玩家在二手平台挂出了一只全新未拆盒的"前方 ...

Core Viewpoint - Suplay, a trendy IP collectibles and consumer goods company, is preparing for an IPO in Hong Kong, aiming to leverage its unique positioning in the adult collectible card market, despite facing risks related to its reliance on licensed IPs [1][8]. Group 1: Company Overview - Suplay was established in September 2019 and focuses on trendy toys and collectible cards, with notable collaborations with renowned IPs such as the Palace Museum, Sanrio, Genshin Impact, and Harry Potter [1]. - The company has a significant partnership with miHoYo, which invested in Suplay's A+ round financing and holds an 11.86% stake, making it the largest external shareholder [1][9]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Suplay's revenue grew from 146 million RMB in 2023 to 281 million RMB in 2024, representing a 92.5% year-on-year increase. For the nine months ending September 30, 2025, the revenue reached 283 million RMB [5][11]. - The company's net profit surged from 2.9 million RMB in 2023 to 49.1 million RMB in 2024, marking a staggering growth of 1,593.1%. The net profit margin for 2024 was 17.5% [5][11]. Group 3: Product and Market Position - Suplay's flagship brand, Kakawow, launched in 2021, has become the top player in China's collectible non-battle card market, with a pricing strategy that targets adult consumers, particularly women [4][7]. - The pricing for Kakawow cards ranges from 59.9 RMB to 89.9 RMB per pack, significantly higher than entry-level cards, reflecting the company's focus on high-quality, culturally resonant collectibles [4][5]. Group 4: Revenue Sources and Risks - Suplay's revenue is primarily derived from licensed IPs, with self-owned IPs contributing only 4.1% of total revenue as of September 30, 2025. The company has established licensing agreements with 22 IP licensors [10][11]. - The top five licensed IPs accounted for approximately 77.7% of total revenue for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, indicating a concentration risk in revenue sources [11].

来源：深圳商报 最近，潮玩圈被一条消息炸开了锅：曾经被炒到天价的泡泡玛Labubu特盲盒，在部分渠道和二手市场 出现价格腰斩。 12月29日，"泡泡玛特开始5折甩卖了"词条登上微博热搜。 今年12月，原价594元一盒的Labubu坐坐派对搪胶毛绒系列，二手平台的均价已经从1478元回落到632 元左右；部分原价99元的单只款式甚至已经跌破原价，在闪购里最低只卖到82元。 这种变化并非个例。在多个二手交易平台，Labubu的挂牌数量明显增多，但成交价格却在同步下移。 一些折扣连锁门店里，曾经需要抢的盲盒，被摆在最显眼的位置，贴上了限时特惠的标签；在海外电商 平台上，过去需要排队预约的热门款式，如今页面显示有货。 来源：深圳商报 最近，潮玩圈被一条消息炸开了锅：曾经被炒到天价的泡泡玛Labubu特盲盒，在部分渠道和二手市场 出现价格腰斩。 12月29日，"泡泡玛特开始5折甩卖了"词条登上微博热搜。 如果把视角再拉远一些，类似的降温也出现在资本市场。自8月下旬创下339.8港元的阶段性高点后，泡 泡玛特股价一路回落，截至12月中旬跌至约189港元，累计跌幅超过40%，市值蒸发逾2000亿港元。 价格的变化迅速改写了 ...

日前，喜茶与泡泡玛特（09992.HK）旗下人气IP"星星人"的联名产品在社交媒体上引发热议。 记者观察到，今年星星人IP的联名较多，涉及香薰蜡烛、耳机包、手机壳等实用物件，比如永辉超市内 也有相关的餐具专区。据悉，2024年泡泡玛特正式签下这一IP，签约当年销售额即突破亿元；今年更是 为其发行主题曲、举办主题展。财报显示，星星人IP在今年上半年已实现营收3.9亿元。 对于星星人IP，泡泡玛特方面回应称："早些年还没签约的时候，有一些家居、餐具的授权。" 但对于 星星人IP的联名模式、授权费用等相关细节，泡泡玛特方面尚未回应记者。 此前，泡泡玛特创始人王宁认为，产品只要有了功能属性，就意味着生命周期的短暂和与生俱来的衰 变。他曾公开表示："很多人不理解潮玩，大家可以想一下，假设MOLLY娃娃的头拔掉是个U盘，你还 会不会买这么多？" 中经记者 黎竹 孙吉正 北京报道 圣诞节期间，各个潮玩品牌都在门店推出了相关主题产品。 消费者小旭（化名）告诉《中国经营报》记者："热门IP盲盒需要定闹钟抢购，圣诞礼盒则在提价过 后，直接以'明盒'形式在门店出售，无须提前预订（抢购）。"在业内看来，圣诞节类的节日是情绪消 费的重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The incident during the live broadcast of Pop Mart has sparked significant public attention and controversy regarding the pricing and perceived value of its products [1][2]. Group 1: Incident Details - During a live broadcast on November 6, a staff member inadvertently questioned the pricing of a DIMOO blind box, which is set at 79 yuan, leading to a viral discussion on social media [1]. - On November 7, Pop Mart acknowledged the incident and stated that an internal investigation was underway, but no employees would be dismissed as a result [2]. Group 2: Product Information - The DIMOO blind box series, launched in November, includes 6 regular items and 1 hidden item, with a purchase probability of 1:6 for regular items and 1:72 for the hidden item [2]. - Each blind box is priced at 79 yuan, while a full box costs 474 yuan [2]. Group 3: Product Quality Concerns - The DIMOO blind box contains various materials, including zinc alloy, polyester, resin, and glass/acrylic, but has been criticized for frequent paint peeling issues, raising questions about its true value compared to its price [5]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Pop Mart reported a strong performance, with a 245% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3 2025, including a 185% increase in China and a 365% increase overseas [6]. - The DIMOO IP generated 1.105 billion yuan in revenue in the first half of the year, accounting for 8% of the company's total revenue [6]. Group 5: Stock Market Reaction - Following the live broadcast incident, Pop Mart's stock price fell nearly 5% on November 7, dropping from a high of 339.8 HKD per share on August 29 to around 208 HKD, marking a significant decline over two months [6].

Group 1 - The incident involving "Pop Mart live streaming accident" has become a trending topic on Weibo, with reports indicating that two staff members involved have been dismissed, while related departments are also being held accountable [1] - Internal sources confirm that a live streaming accident did occur, and the company is conducting an urgent investigation, but there will be no dismissals of employees involved in the incident [1] Group 2 - The product in question includes zinc alloy pendants, polyester lanyards, resin figurines, and glass/acrylic components, with counterfeit versions costing as low as 4 yuan, raising concerns about the disparity between the actual value and pricing of the genuine products [3] - DIMOO, an IP created by Chinese designer Ayan Deng, has been acquired by Pop Mart and is now one of its proprietary IPs. DIMOO's first blind box series "Pet Vacation" was launched in 2019, and it is currently the fifth largest artist IP under Pop Mart, generating revenue of 1.105 billion yuan in the first half of the year, accounting for 8% of total revenue [3] - Pop Mart has shown strong performance recently, with a reported overall revenue growth of 245% to 250% year-on-year for the third quarter of 2025. Revenue from China increased by 185% to 190%, while overseas revenue surged by 365% to 370% [3]

Core Insights - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) is being held from November 5 to 10 in Shanghai, showcasing various brands including Pop Mart, which emphasizes its theme of "Creating Trends, Boundless Play" [1][4] - Pop Mart prominently features its popular IPs, SKULLPANDA and CRYBABY, creating an immersive experience for attendees [4] Group 1: Event Highlights - Pop Mart's exhibition design is inspired by a "birthday celebration," creating a warm and festive atmosphere with a giant birthday cake adorned with various IP characters [1] - The SKULLPANDA character, created by artist 熊喵, embodies the aesthetic concept of "boundless imagery," while CRYBABY, designed by Thai artist Molly, focuses on emotional expression and resonates globally [4] Group 2: Product and Market Expansion - Pop Mart showcases a diverse range of products including figurines and plush toys, enhancing the customer experience with smooth offline services and unique brand culture [4] - The company is expanding its product matrix to include new categories such as building blocks, desserts, and jewelry, breathing new life into its IPs and enriching consumer experiences [4] - By 2025, Pop Mart aims for triple-digit growth across four major regions, with the Americas experiencing over tenfold growth, marking a significant milestone in its international strategy [4] Group 3: Global Presence - Pop Mart continues to establish its presence in iconic global locations, opening its first store in landmark areas such as Cambridge, UK, and Bali, Indonesia, with a total of over 570 stores worldwide [5] - The company has also opened its first store in the Middle East at Hamad International Airport in Doha, becoming the first Chinese brand to enter this airport [5]

Core Insights - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) is being held in Shanghai, with Pop Mart showcasing its popular IPs SKULLPANDA and CRYBABY under the theme "Creating Trends, Boundless Play" [1][4] - Pop Mart's booth features a giant brown cake, but the anticipated Labubu character is not present, as the company aims to highlight its diverse range of IPs beyond Labubu [1][4] - The exhibition is for display purposes only, and no products are for sale at the Pop Mart booth [3] Company Highlights - SKULLPANDA, created by artist Xiong Miao, features a design that includes an astronaut helmet and promotes the aesthetic concept of "boundless imagery," encouraging exploration and self-discovery [4] - CRYBABY, designed by Thai artist Molly, focuses on emotional expression and advocates for facing emotions and moving forward bravely [4] - Pop Mart aims to leverage the international platform of CIIE to showcase its diverse IPs and the limitless possibilities of trendy toys to a global audience [4] Performance Metrics - In the first half of 2025, Pop Mart's performance across four major regions achieved over 300% growth, with the Americas experiencing a growth rate exceeding tenfold [4] - The total number of Pop Mart stores worldwide has surpassed 570 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock's performance in the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated stable revenue and profit growth, with a revenue of 2.438 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a 7.03% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 66 million yuan, up 28.13% [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 7.349 billion yuan, an 8.10% increase, and a net profit of 209 million yuan, reflecting a significant 59.29% growth [1]. - The company is actively expanding its franchise business, adding over 200 new franchise stores and achieving a 62% increase in daily sales for selected stores [2]. - The company is innovating its business model by integrating new consumption trends and digital initiatives, such as local live streaming, which has attracted 390,000 new customers [2]. - The company has completed the consolidation of its beauty business, which is expected to provide stable profits and support international expansion [3]. - The company plans to issue H shares to further its international strategy, which could enhance its overseas business growth [3]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue growth from 10.35 billion yuan in 2025 to 14.45 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits expected to rise from 320 million yuan to 708 million yuan during the same period [4]. - The projected P/E ratios are 42.53 for 2025, decreasing to 19.21 by 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics over time [4]. - The net profit margin is expected to increase from 3.1% in 2024 to 4.9% in 2027, reflecting enhanced profitability [4].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Pop Mart (09992.HK) experienced a significant drop, falling nearly 10% in intraday trading on October 23, closing at 232 HKD per share, a decrease of 9.44%. Since September, the stock has seen a cumulative decline of nearly 30% [3] Group 1: Analyst Opinions - Morningstar analyst Jeff Zhang expressed concerns that investors fear Pop Mart's revenue growth may peak this year, with a potential slowdown in growth momentum starting next year [3] - In contrast, several foreign investment banks, including Nomura, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and HSBC, remain optimistic about Pop Mart, raising their target prices and maintaining "buy" ratings after the Q3 report. They believe the company's diversified IP matrix, global channel expansion, and capacity enhancement will support growth for the coming years [3] - JPMorgan recently upgraded Pop Mart's rating from "neutral" to "overweight," increasing the target price from 300 HKD to 320 HKD. The bank noted that despite market concerns about the lifecycle of its popular IPs, core products like Labubu are still sold out globally, indicating strong demand [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - On October 21, Pop Mart announced that its overall revenue for Q3 2025 is expected to grow by 245% to 250% year-on-year, with China revenue increasing by 185% to 190% and overseas revenue rising by 365% to 370% [4] - In terms of revenue performance across channels in China, offline channels are expected to grow by 130% to 135% year-on-year, while online channels are projected to increase by 300% to 305% [4] - Revenue growth in overseas regions is also notable, with the Asia-Pacific region expected to grow by 170% to 175%, the Americas by 1265% to 1270%, and Europe and other regions by 735% to 740% [4] Group 3: Product Performance - Pop Mart has launched several new products this year that have become bestsellers. For instance, the "WHY SO SERIOUS" Halloween series blind boxes sold out within minutes online [4] - Data from the Dewu App indicates that the price of the LABUBU-themed hidden "Moon Shadow Mask" surged from 159 RMB to a peak transaction price of 2289 RMB, reflecting a premium of 13.4 times. Other regular items like the LABUBU-themed "Throwing Ball Clown," DIMOO-themed "Blazing Clown," and the star-themed "Rainbow Bean" also saw significant premiums of 7.2 times, 3.8 times, and 2.8 times, respectively [4]