瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.10」 玉米类市场周报 收割推进现货走弱 期价维持偏弱调整 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 策略建议：中长期维持偏空思路。 3 Ø 玉米： Ø 行情回顾：本周玉米期货偏弱调整。主力2511合约收盘价为2125元/吨，较节前-18元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：美国农业部发布的季度报告显示，截至9月1日，美国玉米库存为15.32亿蒲，高于分析 师平均预期的13.37亿蒲。受美国政府停摆影响，周一美国农业部未发布作物进展报告。不过，分 析师们平均预期，截至上周日，美国玉米收割完成约29%。随着美玉米收割推进，供应压力将逐 步增加，也令美玉米价格继续承压。国内方面，东北产区新玉米收割进度加快，玉米存在丰产预 期及潮粮不耐储存，基层种植户出售积极性高，贸易商多以随采随走为主，市场粮源流通量持续 增大，用粮企业承载有限导 ...

时间：2025.09.29 研究员：张晓君 从业资格: F0242716 交易咨询： Z0011864 黑龙江区域玉米产业调研总结 证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 Ø 调研背景： 进入9月下旬，国内玉米主产区新季玉米陆续收获上市，玉米 市场进入新陈交替阶段。当前，主产区新作玉米定产情况、基层售 粮情绪及下游建库节奏等成为近期市场关注焦点；亦是新陈玉米价 格如何对接的关键驱动因素。 在此业内瞩目的重要时间节点，笔者在大商所的带领下，历时 5天，走访了黑龙江区域玉米市场上、中、下游全产业链，包括玉 米种植户/农场、贸易商、深加工企业以及交割库等，总计13家相 关企业。深入了解了东北地区新季玉米整体产量/质量、开秤价、 种植端售粮情绪、下游企业建库意愿以及相关企业运用玉米期货和 衍生品的情况。 Ø 调研线路： 西北线:哈尔滨→绥化→青冈→海伦→克东→北安→五大连池→嫩江→讷河→大庆→哈尔滨 东北线:哈尔滨→佳木斯→宝泉岭→富锦→宝清→虎林→密山→牡丹江→哈尔滨 Ø 调研对象：农户、贸易商、加工企业、大型农场等 Ø 调研目的：新季玉米上市相关情况（面积、单产、产量、 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.26」 新季玉米上市增加 期价维持底部震荡 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 玉米类市场周报 3 Ø 行情回顾：本周玉米期货小幅收涨。主力2511合约收盘价为2178元/吨，较前一周+10元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：USDA报告预计，2025/26年度美国玉米产量将达到168.14亿蒲式耳，创历史新高，期 末库存也将达到七年来最高水平。且随着美玉米收割推进，供应压力将逐步增加。不过，从早期 收割情况来看，产量报告好坏不一，使得美玉米产量或有下调的预期。国内方面，东北产区辽宁 及黑龙江新粮收获范围扩大，种植户售粮积极性较高，新粮陆续上市供应,开秤收购的加工企业增 多,不过随着新玉米上量增多，下游需求相对低迷,深加工企业亏损加剧，收购价格有所下调。盘面 来看，随着新季玉米逐步上市，对盘面仍有所牵制。 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建 ...

玉米系产业日报 2025-09-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 1 | 2165 | | 2474 | 5 | | | 玉米月间价差(1-5):(日,元/吨) 3 玉米淀粉月间价差(11-1):(日,元/吨) | -63 | 吨) | 13 | 6 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) -17708 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | | | | | | 期货市场 | | 729266 | | 172607 | -12616 | | | -14837 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -35819 | | -38499 | -2878 | | | 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) -2000 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) | 21814 | 手) | 8250 | 0 | | | 主力合约CS-C价差(日, ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For corn, maintain a bearish outlook. The USDA's supply - demand report shows an increase in the estimated planting and harvest areas of US corn in the 2025/26 season, a decrease in the estimated yield per acre, and an overall increase in production, which is higher than analysts' average expectations. In the domestic market, although low trade - grain inventories support prices, factors such as imported corn auctions, wheat for feed, approaching new - corn harvest seasons in North and Northeast China, and weak downstream demand lead to a decline in purchase prices. However, the slightly higher opening prices of new - season corn in some areas support market sentiment. [8][9][10] - For corn starch, also maintain a bearish outlook. The raw - material corn is in a new - old alternation period. Some enterprises have new maintenance due to insufficient raw - material supply, and the industry's operating rate is low. Although demand has slightly improved and inventory pressure has declined, the overall inventory is still high, and the substitution advantages of cassava starch and wheat starch squeeze the market demand for corn starch. [13][14] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Corn**: The closing price of the main 2511 contract was 2168 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton from the previous week. The USDA's report shows an increase in US corn production. Domestically, new - corn harvest is approaching, and downstream demand is weak, but the slightly higher opening prices of new - season corn support sentiment. [10] - **Corn Starch**: The closing price of the main 2511 contract was 2463 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton from the previous week. The raw - material supply is in an alternation period, the operating rate is low, demand has slightly improved, and inventory has decreased, but it is still high, and substitution products squeeze the market. [14] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Maintain a bearish outlook for both corn and corn starch. [9][13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures Price and Position Changes**: The 11 - month contract of corn futures closed lower with a total position of 811,835 lots, a decrease of 39,928 lots from the previous week. The 11 - month contract of corn starch futures also closed lower with a total position of 208,130 lots, a decrease of 9,924 lots from the previous week. [20] - **Top 20 Net Position Changes**: The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 4,758, and the net short position decreased compared to last week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 43,805, and the net short position also decreased. [26] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 30,658, and those of corn starch were 8,330. [32] - **Spot Price and Basis**: As of September 18, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2360.59 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 11 - month contract and the spot average price was + 192 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2800 yuan/ton and in Shandong was 2900 yuan/ton, with a stable - to - weak trend this week. The basis between the 11 - month contract and the Jilin Changchun spot was 337 yuan/ton. [37][42] - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 11 - 1 spread of corn was 10 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 11 - 1 spread of starch was - 15 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period. [48] - **Futures Spread between Starch and Corn**: The spread between the 11 - month contracts of starch and corn was 295 yuan/ton. In the 38th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 456 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous week. [58] - **Substitute Spread**: As of September 18, 2025, the spot price of wheat was 2429.61 yuan/ton, and the spot price of corn was 2360.59 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 69.02 yuan/ton. In the 38th week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 257 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton from the previous week. [63] 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - Corn - **Supply - Side: Port Inventory**: As of September 12, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 60.1 tons, a decrease of 5.50 tons from the previous week, and the foreign trade inventory was 0 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 72.9 tons, a decrease of 21.6 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 32.1 tons, a decrease of 1.60 tons week - on - week. [52] - **Supply - Side: Monthly Import Volume**: In August 2025, China's ordinary corn import volume was 4.00 tons, a decrease of 39.00 tons (90.70%) from the same period last year and a decrease of 2.00 tons from the previous month. [71] - **Supply - Side: Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of September 18, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 26.16 days, a decrease of 0.75 days from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.79%, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.23%. [75] - **Demand - Side: Livestock Inventory**: As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of July, the breeding sow inventory was 40.42 million, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous month, accounting for 103.6% of the normal reserve of 39 million. [79] - **Demand - Side: Processing Profit**: As of September 18, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 162 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 155 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 692 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 284 yuan/ton. [88] 3.4 Industrial Chain Situation - Corn Starch - **Supply - Side: Enterprise Inventory**: As of September 17, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.34 million tons, a decrease of 5.91%. [92] - **Supply - Side: Starch Enterprise Operation and Inventory**: From September 11 - 17, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 517,200 tons, an increase of 6,900 tons from the previous week; the national corn starch output was 249,100 tons, an increase of 5,200 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 48.15%, an increase of 1.01% from the previous week. As of September 17, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.2 million tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons from the previous week, a weekly decrease of 2.12%, a monthly decrease of 8.95%, and a year - on - year increase of 37.46%. [96] 3.5 Option Market Analysis As of September 19, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2511 contract of corn was 10.21%, an increase of 1.13% from 9.08% the previous week. The implied volatility fluctuated and rebounded, at a slightly higher level than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities. [99]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research on corn and corn starch, released on September 15, 2025, by the Commodity Research Institute [2] Group 2: Data Futures Market - For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2156 with a decrease of 11 (-0.51%), C2605 at 2229 (-8, -0.36%), C2509 at 2255 (-1, -0.04%); for corn starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2473 (-14, -0.57%), CS2605 at 2571 (-10, -0.39%), CS2509 at 2588 (101, 3.90%) [3] - The trading volume and open interest of most contracts showed significant changes, such as C2601's trading volume increasing by 73.58% and open interest by 1.05% [3] Spot Market and Basis - Corn spot prices varied by region, with today's quotes in Qinggang at 2230 (up 10), Jiamuji Biochemical at 2180 (unchanged), etc; starch spot prices also differed, like Longfeng at 2700 (unchanged), Zhongliang at 2750 (unchanged) [3] - The basis of corn and starch also showed different values in different regions and contracts [3] Spread - Corn inter - delivery spreads like C01 - C05 was -73 (-3), starch inter - delivery spreads like CS01 - CS05 was -98 (-4), and cross - variety spreads like CS09 - C09 was 333 (102) [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Corn - The US corn report lowered the yield per unit, and there is still room for the US corn to rebound; China has imposed tariffs on US corn and sorghum, but the import profit of foreign corn is high, with the December Brazilian import price at 2164 yuan [5] - Northern port flat - price is stable, Northeast corn spot is strong, while North China's corn spot is weak due to increased supply, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn has decreased; wheat in North China can still substitute for corn [5][7] - Domestic breeding demand is weak, downstream feed enterprises have high inventory, and corn spot is stable in the short term; with new - season corn about to be listed in large quantities, the corn spot price is expected to fall [7] Starch - The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, Shandong corn spot is stable, and starch in Shandong is around 2750 yuan, while Northeast starch spot is weak [8] - This week, corn starch inventory decreased to 122.6 million tons, a decrease of 3.9 million tons from last week (monthly decrease of 6.98%, year - on - year increase of 40.3%); starch price depends on corn price and downstream stocking [8] - In the long - term, due to weak demand, starch enterprises will be in a long - term loss state; 01 starch is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [8] Group 4: Trading Strategies Unilateral - US corn has support at 400 cents per bushel; it is advisable to wait and see for 01 corn [10] Arbitrage - It is recommended to wait and see [11] Group 5: Corn Option Strategies - Enterprises with physical goods can close out short positions of corn call options, or short - term traders can try to sell at high prices and conduct rolling operations [14] Group 6: Related Graphs - The report includes graphs of various data such as corn spot prices in different regions, corn 01 contract basis, corn 1 - 5 spreads, corn starch 1 - 5 spreads, corn starch 01 contract basis, and corn starch 01 contract spreads [16][17][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on corn is "oscillating." Before any significant policy changes, given the expectation of selling pressure from the new - season bumper harvest and the decline in planting costs, the C01 contract is expected to have some downside potential. The trading strategy suggests a short - position for the C01 contract and a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes multiple factors affecting the corn market, including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It concludes that in the absence of obvious policy changes, the corn market will oscillate due to the new - season bumper harvest selling pressure and the decrease in planting costs [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In the short - term, it is bullish; in the medium - term, it is bearish. Old - crop supply is tightening, new - crop has not been widely harvested. The 25/26 planting cost continues to decline, with an estimated port - collection price of 1950 - 2100 yuan/ton. The sown area is slightly decreasing, but the yield per unit is expected to be good, maintaining an overall bumper - harvest expectation. Imported grain policy restrictions continue, reducing imported grain supply [3]. - **Demand**: Neutral to bullish. In July 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.31 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. The proportion of corn in compound feed is 33.1%. Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories in the short - term, supporting feed demand, but national policies may control pig inventories and weights, affecting long - term supply. The wheat - corn price difference is moving out of the substitution range. Feed enterprises have limited space to further compress inventories and have a rigid demand for replenishing corn stocks. However, the downstream demand of deep - processing is poor, with processing profits in the red, forcing the operating rate to a low level and reducing deep - processing demand [3]. - **Inventory**: Bullish. North - port inventories have been continuously decreasing to a low level, while south - port grain inventories have increased this week. Feed enterprise inventories have declined to a historical low, and deep - processing corn inventories have also reached a low level [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. The basis is at a neutral level [3]. - **Profit**: Bearish. Pig farming remains profitable, broiler farming profits are declining, and layer farming is in the red. Deep - processing starch and alcohol processing profits are deeply in the red [3]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. Considering the planting cost, the valuation of new - season corn is moderately high [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The report presents multiple charts, including the basis trend of the corn main contract, the national average price, the Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port, the market price at Shekou Port, the spot price of corn starch in Shandong, the position of the corn futures contracts, and the spreads between different contracts [5][7][11]. 3.3 Domestic Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Port and Transportation**: North - port corn arrivals and the remaining vehicles for deep - processing in Shandong are presented. The Shekou - Jinzhou price difference and the shipping volume of corn from the four northern ports are also shown. North - port inventories have decreased to a low level, while south - port grain inventories have increased [20][22][35]. - **Imported Grains**: In July, corn imports were at a low level, while sorghum and barley imports increased [27]. - **Feed Industry**: Feed enterprise inventory days and monthly feed production are presented. The livestock and poultry industry has short - term high - inventory support for feed demand, but policies may affect long - term supply [42][44]. - **Livestock and Poultry Farming**: Pig prices are falling, and pig weights are at a high level. Broiler farming profits are declining, and layer farming is in the red [51][55][60]. - **Deep - Processing Industry**: Deep - processing corn consumption has slightly increased, but inventories have declined to a low level. Starch processing profits are in the red, and inventories are high. Alcohol production has a seasonal increase in the operating rate, but processing profits are in the red. The wheat - corn price difference has widened, moving out of the substitution range, and flour demand is weak [64][72][93]. 3.4 Foreign Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - The September report shows a slight downward adjustment of the corn stock - to - consumption ratio of major exporting countries in 2025/26. Global corn production and its distribution are presented, along with the export sales of US corn, including total and China - bound sales [113][117][120].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Corn Starch Daily Report [2] - Date: September 11, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Dayong [6] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03107370 [6] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018389 [6] Group 2: Data Futures Disk - C2601: Closing price 2172, up 2 (0.09%), volume 112,026 (-43.81%), open interest 435,154 (3.08%) [3] - C2605: Closing price 2240, unchanged (0.00%), volume 16,051 (30.54%), open interest 81,333 (1.19%) [3] - C2509: Closing price 2302, up 17 (0.74%), volume 691 (DIV/0!), open interest 11,759 (0.68%) [3] - CS2601: Closing price 2497, down 5 (-0.20%), volume 17,752 (-24.92%), open interest 60,779 (4.53%) [3] - CS2605: Closing price 2584, down 4 (-0.15%), volume 346 (-53.18%), open interest 1,002 (0.40%) [3] - CS2509: Closing price 2502, unchanged (0.00%), volume 0 (DIV/0!), open interest 1,501 (0.00%) [3] Spot and Basis - Corn: Qinggang 2220 (unchanged), Jiajishenghua 2180 (unchanged), Zhucheng Xingmao 2420 (-6), Shouguang 2324 (-30), Jinzhou Port 2310 (unchanged), Nantong Port 2420 (unchanged), Guangdong Port 2450 (unchanged) [3] - Starch: Longfeng 2700 (unchanged), COFCO 2750 (unchanged), Cargill 2800 (unchanged), Yufeng 2990 (unchanged), Jinyumi 2850 (unchanged), Zhucheng Xingmao 2940 (unchanged), Hengren Gongmao 2810 (unchanged) [3] Spreads - Corn Inter - delivery: C01 - C05 -68 (up 2), C05 - C09 -62 (-17), C09 - C01 130 (up 15) [3] - Starch Inter - delivery: CS01 - CS05 -87 (-1), CS05 - CS09 82 (-4), CS09 - CS01 5 (up 5) [3] - Cross - variety: CS09 - C09 200 (-17), CS01 - C01 325 (-7), CS05 - C05 344 (-4) [3] Group 3: Market Judgment Corn - US corn prices have fallen, but there may be a rebound due to potential downward adjustment of US corn yield. China has imposed a 15% tariff on US corn, with a total of 26% tariff within the quota, and a 22% tariff on US sorghum. The import profit of foreign corn is relatively high, with the December Brazilian import price at 2116 yuan. The northern port closing price is stable at around 2310 yuan, and the spot price in the northeast corn - producing area is relatively strong. The supply in North China has increased, leading to a decline in the spot price, and the price difference between northeast and North China corn has narrowed. The wheat price in North China is weak, and the price difference between wheat and corn is small, so wheat continues to be a substitute. The domestic breeding demand is still weak, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is high. The corn spot price is relatively stable in the short term. Due to recent imports and domestic corn auctions, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new - season corn, the corn spot price is expected to decline. It is estimated that by the end of September, the North China corn price may reach 2200 yuan/ton, and the price in Heilongjiang may be below 2100 yuan/ton [5][7] Starch - The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the Shandong corn spot price is stable. The starch price in Shandong is around 2750 yuan, and the northeast starch spot price is also weak. This week, the corn starch inventory has decreased to 122.6 million tons, a decrease of 3.9 million tons from last week, a monthly decrease of 6.98% and a year - on - year increase of 40.3%. The current starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. The average income from by - products in the past few years has been over 600 yuan, and today the by - product contribution in Shandong is 630 yuan (670 yuan in Heilongjiang). The by - product price is still strong, much higher than last year, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. The North China corn price is stable in the short term, while the northeast corn price is relatively weak. In the medium and long term, due to weak starch demand, enterprises will be in a long - term loss state. Today, the 01 starch contract has followed the corn price in a weak shock. The North China corn price still has room to fall by early October, and the corn starch spot price will also decline later. The loss of North China deep - processing plants will expand, and it is expected that the 01 starch contract on the short - term disk will continue to be in a weak shock [8] Group 4: Trading Strategies - For the US corn, there is support at 400 cents per bushel. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for the 01 corn contract. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [10][11] Group 5: Corn Option Strategies - Spot - holding enterprises can close out their short positions in corn call options, or they can try to gradually sell at high prices in the short term and conduct rolling operations [14] Group 6: Related Attachments - The report includes six figures, namely the spot price of corn in various regions, the basis of the corn 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of corn, the 1 - 5 spread of corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 01 contract, and the spread of the corn starch 01 contract [16][17][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The yield per unit of US corn may be lowered later, and the price of the December contract of US corn has strong support at 400 cents per bushel. The price of domestic corn spot is expected to continue to decline, and the 01 corn contract is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The starch market is weak, with the operating rate and price of starch both decreasing, and the loss of starch factories expanding. The price of wheat, a substitute for corn, is basically stable [4]. - The net short position of non - commercial traders in US corn has decreased, and the ethanol production is stable. In the domestic market, the inventory of deep - processing enterprises and northern ports has decreased, while the grain inventory in southern ports has increased [15][23]. - The breeding profits of pigs, broilers, and laying hens have different degrees of change. The operating rates of starch sugar and paper mills in the downstream of corn starch have decreased [45][51][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Market Situation Analysis** - US corn is expected to have a high yield, but the yield per unit may be lowered later. The 400 - cent - per - bushel support for the December contract of US corn is strong, and it will fluctuate in the short term. Domestic corn is continuously auctioned, and new corn in North China will be listed in mid - to - late September. The price of Shandong corn is expected to fall to around 2,200 yuan per ton, and the price of domestic corn spot is expected to continue to decline [4]. - The planting cost of new - season corn has decreased, but farmers may be reluctant to sell. The 01 corn contract is expected to fluctuate at the bottom and should be operated according to seasonal rules [4]. - **Trading Strategies** - For single - side trading, consider buying the December contract of US corn around 400 cents per bushel and short - selling the 01 corn contract lightly above 2,200 yuan per ton [5]. - For arbitrage and options trading, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Market** - The yield per unit of US corn may be lowered, and the price has rebounded. The December contract has strong support at 400 cents per bushel. The import tariffs of US corn and sorghum are 26% and 23% respectively, and the domestic import profit has expanded [8]. - As of August 26, the non - commercial net short position of US corn was 70,000 lots, showing a decrease. The ethanol production in the US is stable [15]. - **Domestic Market** - The inventory of feed enterprises has decreased. As of September 4, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed enterprises was 27.63 days, a decrease of 0.5 days compared with the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 5.12% [19]. - The consumption of deep - processing enterprises is stable. From August 28 to September 4, 2025, 149 major domestic corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.143 million tons of corn, an increase of 0.29 million tons compared with the previous week. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has decreased. As of September 3, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 2.711 million tons, a decrease of 7.85% compared with the previous week [20]. - The corn inventory in northern ports has decreased, while the grain inventory in southern ports has increased. As of August 28, the corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.127 million tons, a decrease of 145,000 tons compared with the previous week. The total grain inventory in Guangdong Port increased by 78,000 tons [23]. - The operating rate of the starch industry has decreased. From August 28 to September 4, the national corn processing volume was 515,500 tons, and the starch output was 246,800 tons, a decrease of 17,100 tons compared with the previous week. The operating rate was 47.7%, a decrease of 3.31% compared with the previous week. The profit of starch factories has decreased, and the inventory has decreased. As of September 3, the corn starch inventory was 1.265 million tons, a decrease of 53,000 tons compared with the previous week [26]. - The price of wheat, a substitute for corn, is basically stable, with the arrival price in North China at around 2,430 yuan per ton [34]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding** - From August 28 to September 4, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 24 yuan per head, an increase of 32 yuan per head compared with the previous week, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 184 yuan per head, an increase of 26 yuan per head compared with the previous week [45]. - The breeding profit of white - feather broilers was 0.95 yuan per chicken, down from 1.6 yuan per chicken in the previous week [51]. - The breeding cost of laying hens was 3.53 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit was - 0.36 yuan per catty, an increase from - 0.4 yuan per catty in the previous week [51]. - **Starch Downstream Consumption** - The operating rate of starch sugar has decreased. The operating rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup was 57.68%, a decrease of 0.68% compared with the previous week, and the operating rate of maltose syrup was 48.36%, a decrease of 0.94% compared with the previous week [54]. - The operating rate of paper mills has decreased. The operating rate of corrugated paper was 63.37%, a decrease of 0.05% compared with the previous week, and the operating rate of containerboard was 69.13%, a decrease of 1.04% compared with the previous week [54]. - **Price and Spread** - The price and spread data of corn and its substitutes, as well as the basis and spread data of corn and corn starch futures contracts, are presented through various charts, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [55][63].

Core Insights - The corn prices in various regions of China remain stable, with specific prices reported for different locations [1][2] - The futures market shows a slight increase in corn prices, with the main contract closing at 2224.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.09% rise [2][3] - The USDA reports a decline in the good-to-excellent rating of U.S. corn, now at 69%, which is still the highest level for this time of year since 2016 [3] Price Overview - Yellow corn prices in Shenzhen, Guangdong are at 2370 yuan/ton, while in Weifang, Shandong, they are at 2450 yuan/ton [2] - Prices vary across regions, with the lowest reported at 2100 yuan/ton in Harbin, Heilongjiang [2] - The futures market experienced a trading volume of 560,161 contracts on September 5 [2] Market Analysis - Short-term outlook indicates a stabilization and potential strengthening of spot prices, with attention on new season corn planting costs and the wheat-corn price spread [4] - Mid-term focus will be on new season corn dynamics, including opening prices and grain storage efforts [4] - Long-term pricing logic is driven by import substitution and planting costs, with a significant emphasis on policy direction [4]