储能景气度跟踪之专家电话会 20251009 摘要 新型储能政策在多省落地，如内蒙古已支付超 4 亿元容量补偿，独立储 能项目快速增长，但高额补贴或难持续，未来可能转向用户侧分摊。 电力现货市场逐步推进，成为独立储能电站的重要套利手段，陕西、辽 宁和青海等省份也开始试运行现货市场套利。 绿电直连或源网荷储一体化项目是未来集中式新能源及储能发展的重要 模式，但对 2025 年储能并网影响较小。 储能市场招标转向集采和框采，供应商入围门槛提高，行业集中度显著 提高，但电池供应紧张导致二三线品牌电芯占比仍高。 电芯价格上涨，导致储能系统报价上调，尤其是交货期紧张的项目，主 流电芯品牌报价已上涨至 0.27-0.28 元/瓦时。 国内市场受货期溢价影响的储能电池量超过 20 吉瓦时，占新增装机量 的一半左右，314Ah 电芯供不应求，500Ah 以上规格扩产存在技术风 险。 预计 2025 年国内新增储能装机量约 140GWh，2026 年或超 180GWh，年复合增长率 30%-40%，海外市场特别是欧洲市场增长迅 速，容量市场成为重要收入来源。 Q&A 今年（2025 年）国内各省份出台的储能政策有哪些重要内容， ...

能源保障和安全事关国计民生，能源低碳发展关乎人类未来。作为能源大省，山西肩负着保障能源供应 和推动能源转型的双重使命。 习近平总书记2022年1月在山西考察时强调，"要夯实国内能源生产基础，保障煤炭供应安全，统筹抓好 煤炭清洁低碳发展、多元化利用、综合储运这篇大文章"；今年7月在山西考察时指出，"着眼于高水平 打造我国重要能源原材料基地，配套发展风电、光伏发电、氢能等能源，构建新型能源体系"。 殷殷嘱托，催人奋进。山西在坚决扛牢国家电煤保供责任前提下，高起点谋划绿色低碳转型路径，努力 构建具有山西特色的新型能源体系。 "一块煤"如何实现价值攀升？ 在位于阳泉市的华阳新材料科技集团一矿调度中心，透过大屏幕，可以看到井下割煤机缓缓开动，黑得 透亮的煤块掉落到传送皮带上，顺着皮带输送到地面，井下设备协同运转一目了然。 "整套智能化综采技术装备，保证了井下生产现场能够被看得清、看得懂，不仅降低了矿工的劳动强 度，还保障了安全生产，生产效率明显提升。"华阳一矿调度室综采四队技术员王健说。 作为我国重要的能源基地，山西以智能化建设、绿色化开采为突破口，通过完善相关标准、加强政策引 导，全面提升煤炭供给质量，截至8月底已建 ...

新华社太原9月25日电 题：端牢能源饭碗加快绿色转型——构建新型能源体系的山西实践 新华社记者赵东辉、梁晓飞、王劲玉 能源保障和安全事关国计民生，能源低碳发展关乎人类未来。作为能源大省，山西肩负着保障能源供应 和推动能源转型的双重使命。 习近平总书记2022年1月在山西考察时强调，"要夯实国内能源生产基础，保障煤炭供应安全，统筹抓好 煤炭清洁低碳发展、多元化利用、综合储运这篇大文章"；今年7月在山西考察时指出，"着眼于高水平 打造我国重要能源原材料基地，配套发展风电、光伏发电、氢能等能源，构建新型能源体系"。 殷殷嘱托，催人奋进。山西在坚决扛牢国家电煤保供责任前提下，高起点谋划绿色低碳转型路径，努力 构建具有山西特色的新型能源体系。 "一块煤"如何实现价值攀升？ 在位于阳泉市的华阳新材料科技集团一矿调度中心，透过大屏幕，可以看到井下割煤机缓缓开动，黑得 透亮的煤块掉落到传送皮带上，顺着皮带输送到地面，井下设备协同运转一目了然。 "整套智能化综采技术装备，保证了井下生产现场能够被看得清、看得懂，不仅降低了矿工的劳动强 度，还保障了安全生产，生产效率明显提升。"华阳一矿调度室综采四队技术员王健说。 作为我国重要的 ...

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2025/9/23 星期二 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | | | | | IF当月 | IF下月 IF下季 | IF隔季 | | | 前两日收盘价 | 4510.00 4487.00 4464.40 | 4440.40 | | | 前日收盘价 | 4506.40 4493.40 4484.00 | 4459.00 | | | 沪深300 | 涨跌 -3.38 -1.60 13.60 | 12.40 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0.07 -0.04 0.30 | 0.28 | | | 成交量 | 33705.00 2045.00 65934.00 | 8437.00 | ...

（文中个股仅作示例，不构成实际投资建议。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。） 从试点探索到全面铺开，我国电力现货市场建设已迈入关键阶段。最新数据显示，截至今年8月，山西、广东、山东、甘肃、蒙西、湖北、浙江7个省级现货 市场已正式转入运行；江苏、陕西等6个省级及南方区域现货市场开启连续结算试运行；省间现货市场同步正式运行，"统一市场，两级运作"的框架基本成 型。 业内人士认为，价差扩大需与容量机制协同推进。未来应构建"电能量市场+容量市场+辅助服务市场"的多层次体系：电能量市场通过中长期合约筑牢保供 基础、分时价差激励短期调节，容量市场保障长期供电能力，辅助服务市场细化调频、爬坡等品种，让抽水蓄能、储能等灵活资源获得合理收益。 央企现代能源ETF紧密跟踪中证国新央企现代能源指数，中证国新央企现代能源指数由国新投资有限公司定制，主要选取国务院国资委下属业务涉及绿色能 源、化石能源、能源输配等现代能源产业的50只上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映央企现代能源主题上市公司证券的整体表现。 数据显示，截至2025年8月29日，中证国新央企现代能源指数(932037)前十大权重股分别为长江电力、国电南瑞、中国核电、中国铝业、三峡能源 ...

Core Insights - The construction of China's electricity spot market has entered a critical stage, with seven provincial-level markets officially operational as of August this year, and six others in trial runs [1] - The spot market serves as a core platform for electricity resource allocation and is crucial for ensuring energy security, with a trading system covering 26 provinces and over 6,000 power generation entities [1] - The spot market has begun to show its guiding role in the consumption of renewable energy, with inter-provincial market transactions of renewable energy reaching 7.75 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 36.5% of total transactions in the first eight months of this year [2] Group 1 - The inter-provincial spot market's maximum mutual assistance power reached 14.32 million kilowatts during peak summer electricity usage, alleviating supply pressure in local areas [1] - The Zhejiang provincial market has implemented mechanisms such as "5-minute rolling clearing" and "joint optimization of electric energy and frequency modulation," effectively guiding users to shift their electricity usage by 3 million kilowatts [2] - The increasing share of renewable energy is significantly changing the operational characteristics of the power system, with negative electricity prices becoming a common issue in regions with high penetration of renewables [2] Group 2 - Future market development should focus on a multi-layered system that includes an energy market, capacity market, and ancillary services market to ensure long-term supply capabilities and reasonable returns for flexible resources [3] - The expansion of price differentials needs to be coordinated with capacity mechanisms to enhance the overall efficiency of the electricity market [3]

新能源占比持续攀升，正深刻改变电力系统的运行特性。"我国现货市场负电价呈现'季节性、时段性'特征， 已成为高新能源渗透率地区的共性问题。"清华大学电机系副教授郭鸿业表示，过于频繁的负电价会扰乱市场 预期，需通过机制优化而非行政干预应对，如合理控制新能源装机节奏、释放用户侧灵活性。 从试点探索到全面铺开，我国电力现货市场建设已迈入关键阶段。最新数据显示，截至今年8月，山西、广 东、山东、甘肃、蒙西、湖北、浙江7个省级现货市场已正式转入运行；江苏、陕西等6个省级及南方区域现 货市场开启连续结算试运行；省间现货市场同步正式运行，"统一市场，两级运作"的框架基本成型。 国网能源研究院企业战略研究所改革与市场研究室主任范孟华认为，价差扩大需与容量机制协同推进。未来 应构建"电能量市场+容量市场+辅助服务市场"的多层次体系：电能量市场通过中长期合约筑牢保供基础、分 时价差激励短期调节，容量市场保障长期供电能力，辅助服务市场细化调频、爬坡等品种，让抽水蓄能、储 能等灵活资源获得合理收益。 随着新能源装机迅猛扩张、午间时段可能出现的"弃光"现象、晚高峰时期的保供压力以及部分区域偶发的负 电价等情况，反映出市场机制与高比例新能 ...

Core Insights - The construction of China's electricity spot market has entered a critical stage, with seven provincial-level markets officially operational as of August this year, and six others in trial runs, forming a basic framework of "unified market, dual-level operation" [1][2] Group 1: Market Development - The spot market serves as a core platform for electricity resource allocation and is crucial for ensuring energy security, with a trading system covering 26 provinces and over 6,000 power generation entities [1] - During the peak electricity usage this summer, the maximum inter-provincial mutual assistance power reached 14.32 million kilowatts, effectively alleviating supply pressure in local areas [1] Group 2: Renewable Energy Integration - The guiding role of the spot market for renewable energy consumption has begun to show results, with inter-provincial market transactions of renewable energy reaching 7.75 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 36.5% of total transactions in the first eight months of this year [2] - The operational practices in Zhejiang, the first provincial-level spot market in the Yangtze River Delta, have effectively utilized market price signals to guide users in peak shaving, achieving a reduction of 3 million kilowatts [2] Group 3: Market Mechanism Optimization - The seasonal and temporal characteristics of negative electricity prices in high renewable penetration areas indicate a need for mechanism optimization rather than administrative intervention, such as controlling the pace of renewable installations and enhancing user-side flexibility [2] - Future market structures should include a multi-layered system of energy markets, capacity markets, and ancillary service markets to ensure long-term supply capabilities and reasonable returns for flexible resources like pumped storage and energy storage [3]

9月初，江苏高电新能源科技有限公司负责电力交易业务的岳工(岳姓工程师)来到江苏开拓新的业务。 这是他从事电力交易业务的第六个省份。他来江苏的原因是自9月份起，江苏正式启动了电力现货市场 连续结算试运行。 岳工曾在发电厂做电力中长期市场交易，当时国内还没有电力交易现货市场。2021年4月，山西电力市 场开始中长期与现货交易配套、批发与零售联动的不间断结算试运行。作为省内最早一批从事电力交易 的人，岳工参与了市场上的各品种交易，逐渐理解了电力交易的本质。山西是国家首批八个电力现货市 场建设试点省份之一。 2024年3月，岳工来到甘肃省创业，参加甘肃电力市场的相关交易。甘肃也是首批八个电力现货市场建 设试点省份之一，同年9月5日，甘肃电力现货市场从试点转为正式运行。 在大量电力交易公司进入电力市场的背景下，江苏省的政策也出现调整。9月15日，江苏电力交易中心 印发《关于进一步规范电力零售市场开展"四心"服务工作的若干举措》，明确了售电公司与零售用户之 间关于价格的协定。比如在价格浮动套餐中，零售用户正价差分成比例不宜低于50%，负价差分摊比例 不宜高于50%。售电公司需要更多向用电企业分润。 岳工对江苏政策的收紧规 ...

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan Province is set to achieve a historic milestone in hydropower installation, surpassing 100 million kilowatts this year, as part of its efforts to enhance clean energy development and meet energy demands for economic and social growth [1][2]. Group 1: Clean Energy Development - Sichuan has unique clean energy resources and has accelerated the development of hydropower, wind, solar, hydrogen, and natural gas since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1]. - The province has made significant progress in transforming its clean energy advantages into economic development advantages [1]. Group 2: Hydropower and Natural Gas Achievements - Over the past five years, Sichuan has focused on hydropower development in the "Three Rivers" basin, resulting in the completion of the Baihetan Hydropower Station, which has the largest single-unit capacity globally and ranks second in total installed capacity [1]. - Sichuan's natural gas production has increased from 43.2 billion cubic meters to 56.2 billion cubic meters, maintaining its position as the top producer in the country [1]. Group 3: Energy Infrastructure and Market Innovations - Sichuan has built an interconnected energy infrastructure network, with over 21,000 kilometers of 500 kV backbone network lines, the largest in the State Grid operating area, and an increase in 500 kV substations to 69 [1]. - The province has pioneered a competitive bidding mechanism for coal-fired power, hydropower, and new energy, leading to the establishment of a new electricity spot market, with cumulative market transactions exceeding 1 trillion kilowatt-hours and an annual growth rate of 22% [2]. - Sichuan has developed a provincial-level virtual power plant management platform, enhancing the aggregation capabilities of 33 virtual power plants and launching new energy storage installations of 1.35 million kilowatts [2].