功率预测业务开始加速，全年高增长可期 核心观点 事件： 资料来源：公司数据. 东方证券研究所预测. 每股收益使用最新股本全面摊薄计算. 国能日新 301162.SZ 公司研究 | 中报点评 | | 增持 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年08月26日） | 54.21 元 | | 目标价格 | 62.64 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 57.6/24.68 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 13,258/8,523 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 7,187 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 计算机 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 08 月 27 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | 6.21 | 1.12 | 13.67 | 100.07 | | 相对表现% | 0.78 | -6.77 | -1.68 | 66.13 | | 沪深 300% | 5.43 | 7.89 | 15.35 | 33.94 | 公司发布中报，20 ...

内蒙古能源局数据显示，上半年，全区煤炭产量6.4亿吨，其中约60%运往东北、华北、华东等主要煤 炭消费地区。 上半年，全区新增电力装机1191万千瓦，总装机达2.7亿千瓦，发电量4167亿千瓦时，"蒙电外送"1656 亿千瓦时，占全国跨省区外送电量的1/6以上，其中绿电占比达到29.6%，较去年同期提高9个百分点。 今年以来，内蒙古聚焦为全国各地提供更多稳定电、绿色电、便宜电，加快推进存量电源项目建设，严 控非计划检修停运，推动在运机组应发满发；修订绿电交易实施细则，新增跨省区绿电交易机制、完善 多年期绿电交易机制，推动蒙西电力现货市场转入正式运行，蒙东电力现货市场开展3轮结算试运行。 今年，内蒙古聚焦高标准建设蒙西、蒙东煤炭供应保障基地，对安全高效煤矿产能核增实行"即报即 审"，"一矿一策"推进煤矿复工复产、稳产达产，努力当好煤炭保供"排头兵"。 ...

行 华福证券 公用事业 2025 年 08 月 09 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 公用事业 第 32 周：浙江电力现货市场转正，绿色氢基燃 料产业化试点值得关注 投资要点： 行情回顾：8 月 4 日-8 月 8 日，环保板块、燃气板块、电力板块、水务板 块分别上涨 3.66%、3.61%、1.05%、0.82%，沪深 300 指数上升 1.23%。 报 告 全面加快电力现货市场建设，浙江成第 7 个转正的现货市场：8 月 8 日， 浙江省发改委、浙江省能源局、浙江能监办发布《关于浙江电力现货市场转正 式运行的通知》，浙江省继山西、广东、山东、甘肃、蒙西、湖北之后，成为 全国第七个电力市场正式运行的省份。2017 年《关于开展电力现货市场建设试 点工作的通知》选择南方（以广东起步）、蒙西、浙江、山西、山东、福建、 四川、甘肃等 8 个地区作为第一批试点。第一批 8 个电力现货市场试点，目前 仅福建、四川尚未转正。此前，国家发展改革委办公厅、国家能源局综合司于 2025 年 4 月下发《关于全面加快电力现货市场建设工作的通知》，文件要求全 面加快电力现货市场建设，2025 年底前基本实现电力现货市场全覆盖，全 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is optimistic about the public utility sector, maintaining a positive outlook for the industry [1][2] - The report highlights the increasing pressure on electricity consumption and supply differentiation, indicating a shift from tight supply to a balanced state during the 14th Five-Year Plan [6][12] - The report emphasizes the need to focus on high-quality wind power assets due to significant yield differentiation in green electricity [5][42] Group 2 - The report projects that during the 15th Five-Year Plan, the national electricity supply will transition from tight to balanced, with coal power utilization hours expected to decline [7][13] - It forecasts that the total electricity generation will reach 131,399 billion kilowatt-hours by 2030, with an average annual growth rate of 5% [10][14] - The report notes that the new energy sector has seen a historic increase in installed capacity, with wind and solar power installations reaching 52GW and 213GW respectively in the first half of 2025, both up 105% year-on-year [22][15] Group 3 - The report discusses the severe pressure on the consumption of new energy, indicating that the utilization hours may be a more accurate indicator than utilization rates [23][28] - It highlights that the utilization rates for wind and solar power have been declining, with some regions falling below the 90% target [27][33] - The report indicates that the construction of the electricity spot market is accelerating, aiming to reflect real-time supply and demand through price signals [39][34] Group 4 - The report outlines the impact of the 136 document, which promotes the full market entry of new energy, marking a new cycle and starting point for the industry [43][44] - It emphasizes the importance of traditional power sources in ensuring energy security amidst the growing demand from new electricity consumers [13][41] - The report suggests that investment strategies should focus on stability and innovation, balancing traditional and new energy investments [5][42]

Group 1 - The maximum power load of Guangxi Power Grid reached 35.234 million kilowatts, a historical high, increasing by 2.61% compared to two years ago [1] - The average market clearing price has significantly increased, with the market clearing price rising by 49.9% and the real-time market clearing price increasing by 99.9% compared to the average of the previous 18 days [1] - The power generation capacity in the region increased by 2.74 million kilowatts compared to the average of the previous 18 days, enhancing supply capabilities [1] Group 2 - Guangxi plays a crucial role as an important hub for "West-to-East Power Transmission," actively integrating into the Southern regional electricity market and the national unified electricity market [2] - As of July 7, the average daily hydropower generation in Guangxi exceeded 12 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 65%, setting a historical record for the same period [2] - During the trial operation of continuous settlement, the National Energy Group Guangxi Power Company participated in the spot market trading, emphasizing the importance of spot prices in driving production and operational decisions [2] Group 3 - The spot market effectively reflects and guides market prices, leading to a decrease in medium- and long-term trading prices, with Guangxi experiencing the largest decline nationwide [3] - The continuous settlement trial in the spot market has revealed the surplus supply situation in Guangxi's electricity market, aligning medium- and long-term trading prices with spot prices [3] Group 4 - By June 2025, Guangxi's installed capacity for renewable energy reached 53.29 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 70.7%, accounting for 48.5% of the total installed capacity in the region [4] - Guangxi has actively promoted renewable energy projects to participate in the electricity market, breaking the "quantity and price guarantee" model [4] - As of now, 403 renewable energy trading units have registered and engaged in trading, with 196 renewable energy stations participating in the spot market on the day of the continuous settlement trial [4] Group 5 - Guangxi Power Grid Company has invested significant resources to develop the electricity spot market, successfully completing 12 rounds of trial operations and 88 days of cumulative operation [5] - The continuous settlement trial has demonstrated the stability of the electricity market in Guangxi, with significant results in supply assurance and price stabilization [5] - The company plans to further innovate and improve market mechanisms, promoting the full participation of centralized renewable energy in the spot market [5]

Group 1: Power Generation Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a power generation of 11.615 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.67% [1] - For the first half of 2025, the total power generation was 24.573 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 3.66% [1] - The total on-grid electricity for the first half of 2025 was 22.837 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 3.52% [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Strategy - The coal market in the first half of 2025 was characterized by a balanced supply and demand, leading to a downward trend in prices [2] - The company adopted a strategy focused on market orientation and efficiency, enhancing thermal power marketing and optimizing fuel procurement management [1] - The company is also diversifying financing to optimize debt structure and reduce funding costs [1] Group 3: Coal Supply and Price Forecast - The main sources of coal procurement are local areas in Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia [2] - It is anticipated that coal prices will continue to decline in the second half of 2025 due to the ongoing release of domestic thermal coal production capacity [2] Group 4: Project Development and Expansion - Ongoing projects include the 2×66 MW expansion at Xibaipo Power Plant and the 2×35 MW project at Renqiu Thermal Power Plant, both expected to be operational by 2026 [2] - The company is also increasing investment in offshore wind projects, including the 250 MW Tangshan Jiantou Xiangyun Island project [2] Group 5: Dividend Policy - The company has established a stable profit distribution policy, increasing the cash dividend from 30% to 50% of the distributable profits starting from 2024 [2]

Group 1: Coal Price and Supply - In Q2 2025, the company's coal price decreased compared to the same period last year due to a general decline in national coal prices [2] - The main coal suppliers are large state-owned enterprises, with the top three being Shanxi Coal, China Coal, and Guoneng Shenhua [2] - The company aims to optimize coal procurement strategies to reduce overall fuel costs [2] Group 2: Electricity Market and Pricing - The electricity spot market prices are influenced by supply-demand dynamics and generation costs [3] - The company is optimizing its trading strategies and pricing schemes in the electricity market to enhance efficiency [3] Group 3: Renewable Energy Projects - As of June 30, 2025, the company's photovoltaic projects have a total installed capacity of 644,100 kW, representing a year-on-year increase of 44.06% [4] - The company plans to focus on new energy sectors and technologies while ensuring energy supply security [4] Group 4: Power Supply and External Purchases - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the proportion of renewable energy generation in Jiangxi Province is increasing, with a 3.5% growth in clean energy generation in Q1 2025 [5] - In 2024, the total external electricity purchase in Jiangxi Province was 22.767 billion kWh [5] Group 5: Project Profitability and Support - The Jiangxi Ganneng Shanggao 2×1,000 MW clean coal power project is expected to be operational in 2025, with profitability influenced by coal prices and electricity prices [5] - As of Q2 2025, the second largest shareholder, State Power Investment Corporation, holds a 33.22% stake in the company, providing support in governance and technology [6] Group 6: Capital Expenditure and Financing - In 2025, the company plans to rationally allocate capital expenditures based on operational needs, including investments in clean coal and new energy projects [7] - As of December 31, 2024, the company's debt-to-asset ratio was 65.96%, and future financing will be planned according to financial conditions [8] Group 7: Asset Management - The company has been managing the equity of Jiangxi Dongjin Power Co., Ltd. since January 2010, with operational stability in the managed assets [8]

Core Insights - Jilin Province has successfully completed its first month-long trial settlement of the electricity spot market, marking a significant breakthrough in the construction of a unified national electricity market system [1] - The electricity spot market reflects real-time price fluctuations based on supply and demand, encouraging flexible adjustments from both generation and consumption sides, thereby enhancing system regulation efficiency and reducing electricity costs [1] Group 1: Market Participation and Mechanisms - A total of 309 market entities and 83,700 market-oriented users participated in the trial run, indicating strong engagement in the new market structure [1] - The market mechanism allows for real-time price adjustments, with prices rising during peak demand to incentivize increased generation and falling during low demand to encourage consumption [1] - Jilin has become the first province in Northeast China to allow renewable energy companies to participate in frequency modulation markets through a "quantity reporting and pricing" mechanism [1] Group 2: Benefits to Participants - Companies have reported significant cost savings; for instance, a company reduced its average electricity purchase price by 0.045 yuan per kilowatt-hour, resulting in savings of over 870,000 yuan over a week [2] - The trial period demonstrated the value of time-sensitive electricity pricing, with significant price differences observed between regions rich in renewable energy and load centers [2] - During the month-long trial, 262.11 million data interactions were completed, supporting the settlement of approximately 5.262 billion kilowatt-hours of spot electricity, validating the market's operational capabilities [2]

Core Insights - The Mongolian West electricity spot market has officially started operating, marking a significant innovation in the integration of renewable energy into the national grid [1][2] - The market allows for both generation and consumption sides to participate fully, optimizing resource allocation and enhancing the efficiency of electricity distribution [2][3] Mechanism Innovation - The transition from a "planned scheduling" model to a "market pricing" model has revolutionized resource allocation in the electricity sector [2] - Over 90% of electricity from both generation and consumption sides is now participating in the market, leveraging the advantages of a large market to maximize resource optimization [2][3] - The introduction of a user-side spot price mechanism has allowed for significant cost savings and efficient load management for high-energy-consuming enterprises [3] Technical Advancements - The implementation of a "day-ahead clearing + real-time market + minute-level scheduling" model has improved the efficiency of renewable energy utilization [5][6] - The prediction error for renewable energy generation has decreased significantly, providing a solid foundation for effective energy management [5] Ecological Transformation - The electricity market is evolving from a competitive model to a collaborative ecosystem, enhancing the profitability of coal-fired power plants while facilitating renewable energy consumption [7][8] - The peak-to-valley price difference in the market has incentivized coal-fired power plants to adjust their operations based on real-time pricing, leading to improved economic performance [7][9] Future Prospects - The development of virtual power plants is being actively pursued, which will enhance the coordination between thermal power and renewable energy sources [10] - The successful cross-regional green electricity trading demonstrates the potential for further integration of renewable energy into the national grid, addressing consumption challenges [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - Hubei's electricity spot market officially commenced after 416 days of trial operation, becoming the first provincial market in the second batch of national electricity spot market construction pilots, and the sixth province in China to enter formal operation [1] Group 1: Market Structure and Development - Hubei has established a comprehensive electricity market system integrating long-term contracts, spot trading, ancillary services, retail markets, and green electricity certificates, providing a model for national electricity market construction [1] - The province's energy structure is characterized by a balanced mix of hydropower, wind, and solar energy, leveraging its geographical advantages for electricity transmission [1] Group 2: Operational Improvements - The transition from a planned to a market-based electricity production model has been achieved, with all 68 coal-fired power plants and 288 centralized renewable energy stations participating in the spot market [2] - The average utilization hours of Huaneng Yangluo Power Plant increased by 4% year-on-year due to optimized pricing strategies [2] - The electricity grid's operational efficiency has improved through advanced technology, enabling real-time data-driven dispatching and automated market clearing [2] Group 3: Renewable Energy Management - Hubei has improved the accuracy of renewable energy output forecasting from 94% to 96%, and the proportion of Automatic Generation Control (AGC) operation increased from 10% to 70% [3] - Since April 2024, Hubei has increased renewable energy generation by 25.23 billion kilowatt-hours, equivalent to a reduction of 1.8 million tons of CO2 emissions [3] Group 4: Supply-Side Competition - Hubei has implemented a market-driven pricing mechanism for coal-fired power, resulting in a 0.04 yuan/kWh decrease in market settlement prices from January to May 2024, saving users 1.2 billion yuan [4] - The province has enhanced its peak shaving capacity by 6.82 million kilowatts through deep peak regulation modifications across all coal power units [4] - Hubei's renewable energy capacity reached 46.65 million kilowatts, surpassing coal power for the first time [4] Group 5: Consumer Guidance and Green Transition - The establishment of a spot price mechanism has guided investments in power sources and grids, optimizing resource allocation [6] - Coal power units have increased their peak and deep regulation capacities by approximately 600,000 kilowatts and 500,000 kilowatts, respectively, to accommodate renewable energy [6] - Industrial users have effectively managed their electricity consumption based on real-time pricing, resulting in significant cost savings [6] Group 6: Virtual Power Plant Development - Hubei has successfully integrated 25 virtual power plants, connecting 2,248 adjustable users with a total capacity of 20.58 million kilowatts [7] - The virtual power plants have demonstrated significant demand response capabilities, with a total of 361.37 million kilowatt-hours of regulated electricity [7] - The province aims to expand its electricity market participants to over 10,000 by the end of 2025, enhancing market flexibility and efficiency [7]