电力现货市场
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中邮证券:建立全国统一电力大市场 NDC驱动新能源高质量发展
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-24 10:01
是新能源、特高压高质量发展的题眼,电价多轨制变成单轨制,由标量变为向量(多维风光发电量占 比:15%是系统成本快速上升的临界点,15%是电网景气度提升的时点,20%是灵活性资源需求提升的 时点。 新能源的成长性 首先来源于NDC(国家自主贡献),其次才是技术进步。 投资建议:(1)电网安全角度:二次设备;(2)灵活性资源角度:核电、煤电改造、燃机、光热、水电改 造、抽蓄、新型储能、用户侧调节(虚拟电厂、V2G、需求响应等)属于同一生态位竞争;(3)电力现货市 场建设角度:计量基础设施必须要完善,不仅是电计量,还包括碳计量。 中邮证券发布研报称,电力现货市场是高质量发展题眼,核电、煤电改造等属于同一生态位竞争。新推 动新能源成长的主要驱动力是NDC(国家自主贡献),技术进步居于次要地位。 中邮证券主要观点如下: 电改 没有完美模板,形成一种新质生产关系,消纳绿电是主线,安全是底线,系统稀缺性是最佳投资方向, 必须面对"能源不可能三角"问题,水风光都来源于太阳,都需要大范围进行互济消纳,因此需要建立全 国统一电力大市场。 电力现货市场 风险提示:政策不及预期的风险,需求不及预期的风险。 ...
皖能电力(000543) - 000543皖能电力投资者关系管理信息2025-11
2025-11-21 08:52
| Q:合肥调峰电站的盈利情况? | A:已实现盈利。 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Q:公司在建项目? | A:安徽省内 | 万千瓦风电项目,新疆 | 万千瓦光伏大基地 | 30 | 80 | | 项目和 | 万千瓦风电项目。 | 50 | | | | | 无 | 附件清单(如有) | | | | | 证券代码:000543 证券简称:皖能电力 安徽省皖能股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号:2025-11 | | 特定对象调研 分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | 投资者关系活动 类别 | 新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | 现场参观 | | | 线上会议 其他 (1)2025 年 11 月 12 日 | | | 正圆私募侯昭慧,途灵资管赵梓峰,长信基金胡梦承,和谐健 康毛一鹏,工银瑞信基金谷衡,华安证券仇中群,中信建投裘峥、 | | 参与单位名称及 | 高兴,浙商证券翁晋翀,太平资管赵洋,国泰基金曾攀水,中银国 | | 人员姓名 | 际陆莎莎,国寿安保基金武月,泰康基金马敦超 ...
水电大省四川现货市场走出新模式
Zhong Guo Dian Li Bao· 2025-11-13 00:46
Core Insights - Sichuan Province officially launched the continuous settlement trial operation of the electricity spot market on November 1, ahead of the national requirement to accelerate the construction of the electricity spot market [1] - The trial involved 421 market participants, including 229 hydropower companies, 24 thermal power companies, 158 renewable energy companies, and 10 independent energy storage companies, with a total market clearing volume of 695 million kilowatt-hours [1] Group 1: Market Development - Sichuan has adopted a new model for the electricity spot market that emphasizes multi-source participation and full optimization of electricity consumption, which has been accelerated since its proposal last November [2] - The government introduced a coal-electricity authorized contract pricing mechanism to address the challenges of integrating hydropower and thermal power [2] - A working group was formed in February, consisting of government departments, expert teams, grid companies, and market participants, to research key mechanisms for the hydropower-dominated spot market [2] Group 2: Technical Infrastructure - The complexity of Sichuan's power grid, with over 20,000 kilometers of 500 kV AC lines and more than 700 control devices, poses significant challenges for the technical support system of the spot market [3] - Sichuan Electric Power has developed a technical support system that includes multi-basin hydropower coupling and intelligent interaction, enabling rapid modeling and solving of large-scale, multi-constraint problems [3] Group 3: Risk Management and Services - Prior to the trial operation, Sichuan Electric Power conducted extensive training sessions for over 5,000 participants to familiarize them with market rules and technical systems [4] - The company has implemented proactive risk management strategies to address potential market price volatility during periods of significant supply and demand changes [4] - Continuous market simulations and trial operations were conducted to test the system under various complex scenarios, ensuring smooth market operation [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The successful launch of the continuous settlement trial is expected to enhance price signal guidance in Sichuan's electricity market, improve resource allocation efficiency, and promote a green and low-carbon energy transition [5] - Sichuan Electric Power plans to continue collaborating with government authorities to strengthen the rules, technology, and operations of the market [5]
四川电力现货市场运行平稳有序
Zhong Guo Dian Li Bao· 2025-11-12 02:52
11月1日,四川省正式启动电力现货市场连续结算试运行,提前两个月完成国家关于全面加快电力现货 市场建设工作的要求。在政府部门坚强领导下,国网四川省电力公司积极发挥电网企业平台作用,配合 开展相关工作,保障市场运行平稳有序。 当日,四川电力组织省内421家经营主体参与现货市场申报。其中,水电229家、火电24家、新能源158 家及独立储能10家,市场出清电量6.95亿千瓦时,最高价格436.75元/兆瓦时,最低价格49.31元/兆瓦 时,各类主体广泛参与,分时价格信号客观反映供需变化,市场运行规范顺畅。 立规则 破难题 四川复杂网源结构及高比例水电的特殊性导致现货市场技术支持系统建设更为困难。"四川省内500千伏 交流线路长度超2万千米、安控装置超700台、控制断面超200个、电站规模超400座,系统运行复杂性居 全国前列,需在系统中纳入大量安控、断面及系统运行约束。"据四川电力调度控制中心三级职员张弛 介绍,同时系统出清还要兼顾流域梯级上下游水电匹配与水库蓄能长周期优化利用,技术支持系统建设 难度进一步增加。 在政府部门指导下,四川电力持续攻坚,创新构建涵盖多流域水电耦合、水库优化调度、智能断面交互 等关键技 ...
国网经营区电力现货市场全覆盖欧美气价季节性上涨:申万公用环保周报(25/11/2~25/11/9)-20251110
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-10 06:34
Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for various sectors within the energy industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in hydropower, green energy, nuclear power, thermal power, and gas sectors [10][30]. Core Insights - The electricity market in the State Grid operating area has achieved near-complete coverage of the electricity spot market, with significant developments in provinces such as Shanxi, which has seen a 128.75% increase in new energy and clean energy installed capacity since the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][9]. - Natural gas prices have shown a divergent trend globally, with increases in Europe and the US, while prices in Asia remain stable due to ample supply [11][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity - The State Grid has implemented a continuous settlement trial for the electricity spot market in Sichuan and Chongqing, marking a significant step towards full coverage [4][7]. - Shanxi's electricity spot market has recorded a total clearing volume of 156.23 billion kWh in the first half of 2025, with real-time average prices reflecting a "two peaks and one valley" pattern [9][10]. 2. Natural Gas - As of November 7, 2025, the Henry Hub spot price in the US reached $3.76/mmBtu, reflecting a weekly increase of 5.52%, while European prices also saw upward trends [11][12]. - The report notes that the LNG national ex-factory price in China is 4382 yuan/ton, with a slight weekly decrease of 0.57% [28][30]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Hydropower: Favorable conditions for winter and spring generation, recommending companies like Guotou Power and Chuan Investment Energy [10]. - Green Energy: Increased stability in returns for existing projects, suggesting attention to companies like New Energy and Longyuan Power [10]. - Nuclear Power: Long-term growth potential remains strong, with recommendations for China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [10]. - Thermal Power: Improved profitability due to lower fuel costs, recommending companies like Guodian Power and Huaneng International [10]. - Gas Sector: Favorable conditions for city gas companies, recommending Kunlun Energy and New Energy [30]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - As of September 2025, China's new energy storage capacity exceeded 100 million kW, accounting for over 40% of the global total [39]. - The report highlights the steady growth in electricity market transactions, with a total of 4.92 trillion kWh traded by September 2025, marking a 7.2% year-on-year increase [39].
申万公用环保周报:国网经营区电力现货市场全覆盖,欧美气价季节性上涨-20251110
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-11-10 05:49
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the power and gas sectors, highlighting the full coverage of the electricity spot market in the State Grid operating area and the seasonal rise in gas prices in Europe and the US [1]. Core Insights - The electricity spot market in the State Grid operating area has achieved near-complete coverage, with 18 provincial-level markets in continuous settlement trial operation as of November 1, 2025. This includes the formal operation of inter-provincial markets and five provincial-level markets [4][8]. - In the gas sector, US Henry Hub spot prices rose to $3.76/mmBtu, reflecting a weekly increase of 5.52%, while European gas prices also saw increases due to seasonal demand [13][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity - The State Grid operating area has nearly achieved full coverage of the electricity spot market, with significant developments in various provinces. As of November 1, 2025, the market has transitioned to continuous settlement trials in Sichuan and Chongqing [4][8]. - In Shanxi, the first province to fully implement the electricity spot market, the average spot price for electricity was recorded at 0.283 yuan/kWh, with a total of 156.23 billion kWh cleared in the first half of 2025 [10]. - The growth of renewable energy capacity in Shanxi has been substantial, with an increase of 128.75% since the 14th Five-Year Plan, leading to a significant impact on electricity pricing and market dynamics [10]. 2. Gas - The report notes a divergence in global gas prices, with US prices rising while Asian LNG prices remain stable due to ample supply. As of November 7, 2025, the Northeast Asia LNG spot price was $11.10/mmBtu, unchanged from the previous week [13][27]. - The report highlights the increase in US natural gas production and demand, with the Henry Hub futures price reaching $4.32/mmBtu, marking a 4.63% increase [14][19]. - Recommendations for investment in gas-related companies include those with integrated natural gas trading capabilities, such as Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, as well as city gas companies benefiting from cost reductions [31]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The report indicates that the electricity equipment, public utilities, environmental protection, and gas sectors outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index during the week of November 2 to November 9, 2025 [35]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - As of September 2025, China's new energy storage capacity exceeded 100 million kW, representing over 40% of the global total, with significant contributions from various regions [41]. - The report also notes that the National Energy Administration is actively promoting the construction of a unified national electricity market, with trading volumes and participants steadily increasing [41].
我国电力生产组织方式由计划全面转向市场
Zhong Guo Dian Li Bao· 2025-11-09 12:30
Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a provincial-level electricity spot market in China marks a significant shift from a planned electricity production organization to a market-oriented approach, indicating the preliminary completion of a unified national electricity market [1] Group 1: Market Development - The electricity spot market has achieved basic coverage across provinces, with Sichuan, Chongqing, and Qinghai recently entering continuous settlement trial operations [1] - Seven provincial-level spot markets, including Shanxi and Guangdong, have officially commenced operations, while others like Fujian and Shaanxi are in trial phases, completing the goal of provincial coverage two months ahead of schedule [1] - The transition to a unified national electricity market is a key aspect of deepening electricity system reform and constructing a new energy system [1] Group 2: Operational Efficiency - The spot market has demonstrated its value in ensuring supply stability and optimizing resources during peak summer demand, with significant reductions in non-operating rates and supply costs [2] - Inter-provincial spot trading has played a crucial role, with a maximum mutual assistance capacity of 14.32 million kilowatts, effectively supporting over 20 provinces during peak demand [2] - Price signals from the market have encouraged users to adjust their electricity consumption behavior, leading to substantial savings for businesses [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The ongoing development of electricity spot markets is expected to enhance system regulation capabilities, ensure reliable grid operation, and promote the consumption of renewable energy [2] - The electricity spot market is anticipated to provide solid energy support for high-quality economic and social development as the construction of a new energy system accelerates [2]
煤价上涨有望支撑电价预期,28省电力现货市场已连续运行
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-11-09 12:04
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the power sector [4] Core Views - The rise in coal prices is expected to support electricity price expectations, with the current price of 809 CNY/ton for Q5500 coal, marking a new high for the year [12][10] - The continuous operation of the electricity spot market across 28 provinces indicates significant progress towards a unified national electricity market [12][10] Summary by Sections Industry Insights - Coal prices have surged, creating a favorable environment for the upcoming 2026 electricity price negotiations. The coal market is currently characterized by tight supply and demand, with coal production declining for three consecutive months from July to September [12][10] - The electricity spot market has entered continuous operation, with 28 provinces now participating. This transition marks a significant shift from a planned to a market-driven electricity production organization [12][10] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,997.56 points, up 1.08%, while the CSI 300 Index rose 0.82%. The CITIC Power and Utilities Index increased by 2.30%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 1.48 percentage points [58][59] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the thermal power sector, particularly companies like Huaneng International, Huadian International, and Zhejiang Energy, as coal prices rebound and performance expectations improve [3] - Emphasize investments in undervalued green energy sectors, particularly in Hong Kong-listed green energy and wind power operators [3] - Monitor the hydropower sector, with a recommendation to pay attention to companies like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power [3] Key Company Announcements - Huaneng announced a significant investment in a new integrated heat and power project in Heilongjiang, with a total investment of 12.043 billion CNY [69] - Shenzhen Nanshan Thermal Power received a government subsidy of 8.05 million CNY, representing 36.75% of its net profit for the last fiscal year [69]
山西电力现货市场出清周期缩短至5分钟 价格信号频次提升3倍
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang· 2025-11-05 01:00
Core Insights - Shanxi Electric Power successfully completed the integration testing of the 15-minute and 5-minute real-time electricity spot market operation from September 1 to October 20, 2025, marking a shift to a higher frequency and more precise market operation [1] - Since its launch in April 2021, Shanxi's spot market has traded a cumulative electricity volume of 1.62 trillion kilowatt-hours, effectively optimizing the allocation of electricity resources through price signals [1] - The adjustment to a 5-minute clearing period allows for quicker and more accurate reflection of instantaneous supply and demand changes in the grid, providing clearer price signals for market participants [1][2] Market Development - The adjustment is in response to the rapid growth of renewable energy in Shanxi, with installed capacity increasing by 128.75% since the 14th Five-Year Plan, reaching 76.84 million kilowatts by September 2025, accounting for nearly 50% of the province's total installed capacity [2] - The previous 15-minute clearing period was inadequate for the new power system's real-time balancing requirements due to the volatility of renewable energy output and rapid changes in supply-demand relationships [2] - The upgrade involved comprehensive enhancements to nine core modules of the real-time market model management, ensuring compatibility of the clearing, measurement, and settlement systems [2] Technological Advancements - The implementation of a 5-minute clearing mechanism facilitates the participation of new market entities such as virtual power plants and distributed energy storage, allowing them to adjust their charging and discharging strategies based on more frequent price signals [2] - The average deviation rate of real-time power balancing has decreased by 20% after the system's upgrade, enhancing the precision and stability of grid operations [2] - Shanxi Electric Power aims to continue advancing electricity market construction and optimize resource allocation on a larger scale [2]
“不平衡电费”致桂冠电力利润大减3亿多,是怎么一回事?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-05 00:00
Core Insights - The announcement from Guiguan Electric Power reveals the challenges faced by power generation companies in the electricity spot market, particularly regarding the allocation of imbalance electricity fees [1][2] - Guiguan Electric Power reported a revenue reduction of 459 million yuan and a net profit decrease of 327 million yuan due to the sharing of imbalance electricity fees, which accounted for 14.3% of the previous fiscal year's net profit [1][2] Company Summary - Guiguan Electric Power is the first publicly listed company to disclose the specific financial impact of imbalance electricity fees [2] - The company operates in the Guangxi region, where it has a significant presence in hydropower generation, with a total installed capacity of 9.1932 million kilowatts, representing two-thirds of the region's regulated hydropower capacity [10] - The company is currently seeking policy optimization suggestions from the Guangxi government, including adjustments to the guaranteed electricity volume and potential increases in market settlement prices [10] Industry Context - The Southern Regional Electricity Spot Market began continuous settlement trial operations on June 29, 2023, which has led to new rules affecting non-market power sources like hydropower [3][5] - Imbalance electricity fees arise from discrepancies between generation and consumption in the electricity market, and these fees are shared among all power generation and consumption entities [6][7] - The phenomenon of imbalance funds is not unique to Guangxi, as similar issues have been observed in other provinces, with imbalance funds accounting for over 30% of market operating costs in Shanxi [6][7]