研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： liuqiannan_qh@china stock.com.cn | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | | 5,336 | 15 | 0.28% | 2,917 | 134 | 18,406 | 423 | | SR01 | | 5,370 | 17 | 0.32% | 175,985 | -3844 | 417,739 | 1039 | | SR05 | | 5,319 | 17 | 0.32% | 46,621 | 4626 | 179,121 | 8502 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | 南宁 | 鲅鱼圈 ...

| 第一章综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 第二章核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXYFUTURES 1 白糖周报：外盘价格趋稳 郑糖价格下跌 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 目录 综合分析与交易策略 【逻辑分析】 国际方面，全球主产区增产仍在兑现。Datagro大幅下调全球糖过剩预期，主要下调了巴西和印度糖产预期。巴西由于最近制糖比出现明显下降，糖 产可能不及之前预期，近期国际糖价有筑底迹象，短期震荡调整走势。ISMA11月4日首次发布2025/26榨季食糖产量的预估数据，该榨季食糖总产量预 计为3435万吨，若计入预计用于生产乙醇的340万吨食糖，该榨季食糖净产量预计为3095万吨。印度中央政府已决定允许2025/26榨季出口食糖150万 吨。 国内市场，短期国内糖厂陆续开榨，供应销售压力逐渐增加，基本面也偏弱，但是考虑国内收紧糖浆和预拌粉的进口，而前期点价成本也相对较高， 国内糖生产成本也较高，对盘面价格有一定支撑，因此预计短期内郑糖价格区间震荡。近期由于10月进口食糖量超预期增加，且广西 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年11月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 2、基差：柳州现货5670，基差317（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：截至8月底24/25榨季工业库存116万吨；中性。 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线下方，偏空。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空减，主力趋势偏空，偏空。 利多：国内消费较好，库存降低，糖浆关税增加。美国 可乐改变配方使用蔗糖。 利空：白糖全球产量增加，新一年度全球供应过剩。外 糖价格跌至14美分/磅附近，进口利润窗口打开，进口 冲击加大。 • 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core View of the Report - The global sugar market in the 25/26 season is expected to have a supply surplus, with different institutions having varying estimates of the surplus volume. The external sugar price is weak, and the profit from importing sugar outside the quota is large, leading to a significant increase in imports in October. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures, 01, has recently set a new low. Considering the approaching delivery, it is recommended to shift trading to the 05 contract. After a short - term rapid decline, there may be a technical rebound, and it is advised to partially take profits on short - term short positions [4][5][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided in the given content. 2. Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a surplus of 163 million tons, StoneX predicts 277 million tons, Czarnikow raises the surplus forecast to 740 million tons, and DATAGRO revises it down to 100 million tons. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1116.21 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5730, and the basis for the 01 contract is 364, showing a premium over the futures, which is a bullish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, considered neutral [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [6]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: An increase in global sugar production, a supply surplus in the new season, a drop in the external sugar price to around 14 cents per pound, an open import profit window, and increased import impact [7]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the given content. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Sugar Supply Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. For example, ISO forecasts a supply surplus of 163 million tons, StoneX forecasts 277 million tons, Czarnikow raises the forecast to 740 million tons, and DATAGRO revises it down to 100 million tons [4][9]. - **China's Sugar Production and Sales**: In the 24/25 season, as of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons [4]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the sugar production is expected to be 1170 million tons, the import is 500 million tons, the consumption is 1570 million tons, and the surplus change is 82 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [37]. - **Import Cost of Processed Raw Sugar**: At the end of October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the import cost outside the quota was about 5086 yuan per ton. Due to the continuous decline in the international sugar price, the import profit was considerable [43]. 5. Position Data No information provided in the given content.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年11月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：DATAGRO:25/26年度全球食糖过剩预计从之前的280万吨下调至100万吨。Czarnikow: 上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8月份预估高出120万吨。StoneX:预计25/26年度 全球糖市供应过剩277万吨。ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应缺口为23.1万吨，比之前预计缺口 大幅减少。2025年8月底，24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨；全国累计销糖1000万吨； 销糖率89.6%。2025年10月中国进口食糖75万吨，同比增加21万吨；9月进口糖 ...

行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 印度政府已批准 2025-26 榨季出口 150 万吨食糖，并决定取消甘蔗糖蜜出口 税，将该关税调整为零 150 万吨糖出口配额将按比例分配给在运营的糖厂， 分配依据为各厂过去三个季的平均产量。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar market shows different supply - demand forecasts from various institutions, with some predicting a supply surplus and others a narrowing supply gap in the 2025/26 season. The domestic sugar market has relatively good consumption, reduced inventory, and increased syrup tariffs, but faces challenges from global production increases and potential import impacts. Near - term, the external sugar price is weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar is more resilient, with near - term contracts stronger than far - term ones. The 01 contract faces significant pressure around 5500 - 5600 and may fall back. Considering the approaching delivery, short - sellers are advised to enter the market at high prices in the 05 contract [4][5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have varying forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand situation. DATAGRO reduced the surplus forecast from 280 million tons to 100 million tons; Czarnikow raised the surplus forecast to 740 million tons; StoneX predicted a 277 - million - ton surplus; ISO estimated a 23.1 - million - ton supply gap, which is much smaller than before. In 2025, China's sugar production, sales, and import data also show certain trends. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price is 5730, with a basis of 260 for the 01 contract, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, which is neutral [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: Recently, the external sugar price is weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar is more resilient. The 01 contract has significant pressure around 5500 and may fall back. Considering the approaching delivery, short - sellers are advised to enter the market at high prices in the 05 contract [5][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply - Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand. For example, ISO expects a supply gap of 20 million tons (basically balanced), StoneX predicts a 277 - million - ton surplus, Czarnikow forecasts a 620 - million - ton surplus (another mention is 750 million tons), Datagro anticipates a 153 - million - ton surplus, Covrig Analytics predicts a 420 - million - ton surplus, and Alvean/Louis Dreyfus expects a 40 - million - ton surplus [4][8][34]. - **Domestic Sugar Production and Sales**: In 2025, as of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the national cumulative sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 15 million tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 15.14 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.51 million tons [4][8]. - **Domestic Sugar Market Data**: The domestic sugar market shows trends in supply, demand, price, and inventory. For example, the national sugar production, consumption, import, and export data from 2024/25 to 2025/26, as well as the changes in international and domestic sugar prices [36]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.

行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 17 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价（元/吨 美分/磅） | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand situation in the 2025/26 season, with most predicting a supply surplus. In the short - term, the domestic Zhengzhou sugar market is relatively resistant to decline compared to the foreign sugar market, and the near - term contracts are stronger than the far - term ones, which may be related to the high spot price of new sugar. In the long - term, the divergence between domestic and foreign sugar trends is unsustainable. For the approaching 01 contract, short - sellers are advised to short at high levels on the 05 contract [5][8]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Czarnikow has raised the expected global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season to 740,000 tons, 120,000 tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX expects a 277,000 - ton surplus, while ISO predicts a supply gap of 231,000 tons, significantly reduced from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1,116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 1 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons. The overall situation is bearish [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,730 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 255 yuan, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position has increased, and the main trend is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: Recently, foreign sugar prices have been falling, while domestic Zhengzhou sugar has been relatively resistant to decline. The near - term contracts of Zhengzhou sugar are stronger than the far - term ones, possibly due to the high spot price of new sugar. In the long - term, the divergence between domestic and foreign trends is unsustainable. For the approaching 01 contract, short - sellers are advised to short at high levels on the 05 contract [5][8]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply and demand. ISO predicts a supply gap of 20,000 tons (basically balanced), StoneX expects a 277,000 - ton surplus, Czarnikow predicts a 620,000 - ton surplus (another mention is 750,000 tons), Datagro expects a 153,000 - ton surplus, Covrig Analytics predicts a 420,000 - ton surplus, Alvean/Louis Dreyfus expects a 40,000 - ton surplus, and Green Pool expects a 115,000 - ton surplus [35]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the sugarcane planting area is expected to be 1.23 million hectares, the beet planting area is 210,000 hectares, the sugar production is expected to be 1.12 million tons, the import volume is 500,000 tons, the consumption is 1.59 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [37]. - **Import Costs**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imports was about 5,086 yuan per ton. In mid - June 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 16.08 cents per pound, and the import cost was between 5,679 - 5,708 yuan per ton [43]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, the sugar production in major global producing areas is increasing. The fundamentals of raw sugar are weak, and the long - term trend is downward. Domestically, in the short term, the sugar price of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is expected to fluctuate within a range, and in the long term, it is expected to be weak, but the downward space is relatively limited due to policy support [11][12] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations for the domestic market, short foreign sugar and long Zhengzhou sugar for arbitrage, and adopt a wait - and - see approach for options [13][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Disk**: SR09 closed at 5,403 with an increase of 5 (0.09%), trading volume of 1,703 (an increase of 116), and an open interest of 10,961 (a decrease of 108); SR01 closed at 5,475 with an increase of 18 (0.33%), trading volume of 139,545 (a decrease of 1,192), and an open interest of 373,243 (an increase of 1,282); SR05 closed at 5,405 with an increase of 8 (0.15%), trading volume of 21,900 (an increase of 6,805), and an open interest of 115,922 (an increase of 2,673) [6] - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of sugar in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an were 5,730, 5,905, 6,000, 5,760, 6,015, 5,820, and 6,130 respectively. The price in Liuzhou decreased by 30, while others remained unchanged [6] - **Basis**: The basis in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an were 255, 430, 525, 285, 540, 345, and 655 respectively [6] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: SR5 - SR01 spread was - 70 (a decrease of 10), SR09 - SR5 spread was - 2 (a decrease of 3), and SR09 - SR01 spread was - 72 (a decrease of 13) [6] - **Import Profit**: The quota - within price and quota - outside price for Brazilian imports were 3,952 and 5,002 respectively, with a spread of 728 compared to Liuzhou, 818 compared to Rizhao, and 473 compared to the futures price; for Thai imports, the quota - within price and quota - outside price were 4,007 and 5,075 respectively, with a spread of 655 compared to Liuzhou, 745 compared to Rizhao, and 400 compared to the futures price [6] 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information**: India allows 1.5 million tons of sugar exports in the 2025/26 season, lower than the industry's request of 2 million tons, and cancels the 50% export tariff on molasses; the 2025/26 sugar - making season in Guangxi starts no earlier than November 30, and enterprises need to abide by relevant regulations; the FAO sugar price index in October was 94.1, down 5.3 points (5.3%) from September and 35.4 points (27.4%) year - on - year, reaching the lowest level since December 2020 [8][9][10] - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, the sugar production in Brazil is at a historically high level, the support of ethanol for sugar weakens, and India's sugar exports may be higher than expected, so the raw sugar fundamentals are weak. Domestically, in the short term, the sugar supply is expected to increase, but the import of syrup and premixed powder is tightened, and the previous pricing cost is relatively high, so the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and be weak in the long term [11][12] - **Trading Strategies**: For the single - side strategy, the international sugar price resumes the downward trend, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be volatile, so it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations; for the arbitrage strategy, short foreign sugar and long Zhengzhou sugar; for the options strategy, adopt a wait - and - see approach [13][14] 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including monthly inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan, sales - to - production ratio trends in Guangxi and Yunnan, Liuzhou white sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price spread, basis and inter - monthly spreads of different contract months [16][17][21]