11月12日，在2025年野村中国投资年会现场，21世纪经济报道记者专访野村中国首席经济学家陆挺，陆挺表示，中国强大的制 造业是支撑过去五年出口高速增长的关键，尤其是AI、新能源汽车等领域，未来中国向中等发达国家目标迈进时，需要关注养 老社保体系的改革，这将使中国经济走向健康平衡的一面。 10月28日，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称《建议》）全文公布。《建议》明 确提出了"十五五"时期经济社会发展指导方针，为做好未来五年经济社会发展工作指明了前进方向。 如何看待"十四五"时期我国积累的经济优势？如何看待"十五五"时期我国面临的机遇和挑战？如何持续高质量发展？如何大力 提振消费？如何优化投资结构？如何综合整治"内卷式"竞争？ （野村中国首席经济学家陆挺，李金萍摄） 新老经济并重高质量发展 《21世纪》：《建议》提出"人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平"，你如何看待这一目标？实现目标需要哪些核心条件？ 陆挺：要实现这一目标，中国需要完成的任务很多，具体来看，实现中等发达国家目标，中国需满足三大核心条件。 一是提升产业附加值，必须通过提高生产效率、强化科研研发与自主创新，推动经济 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the acceleration of new growth momentum in China's economy through enhanced fiscal policies, support for innovation, and investment in key industries, while ensuring the stability of employment and market expectations [1][3]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth - The fiscal policy is increasingly proactive, focusing on stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations, while promoting economic recovery [3][4]. - A total of 300 billion yuan in special bonds is allocated to support the replacement of consumer goods, which is expected to stimulate significant retail sales [4][15]. - The central government plans to increase its technology funding to 398.12 billion yuan in 2025, a 10% increase from the previous year, focusing on core technology and strategic industries [5][21]. Group 2: Investment and Consumption - The government aims to enhance domestic demand by boosting consumption and effective investment, with a focus on key sectors and weak links [13][16]. - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with 5.55 billion yuan issued in the first half of the year, completing 42.7% of the annual target [16]. - The manufacturing sector is expected to see a 10.3% increase in industrial investment, driven by government support for technological upgrades [17]. Group 3: Employment and Social Welfare - The central government allocated 667.4 billion yuan for employment support, with 6.95 million new urban jobs created in the first half of the year [27][28]. - Education spending increased by 5.9% to 2.15 trillion yuan, with a focus on improving quality and access to education [29][30]. - Basic public health service funding reached 804.35 billion yuan, enhancing health management and disease prevention efforts [32][33]. Group 4: Risk Management and Financial Stability - The government is implementing measures to mitigate financial risks, including the management of local government debt and the promotion of real estate market stability [7][9]. - A comprehensive approach to fiscal management is being adopted, including reforms in tax systems and budget execution to ensure effective use of resources [7][12]. Group 5: Innovation and Technology - The report highlights the importance of integrating technological innovation with industrial development, with a focus on enhancing research capabilities and supporting key technology projects [20][21]. - Funding for basic research is set to increase by 12.1%, emphasizing the need for original innovation and support for research institutions [21][22]. Group 6: Environmental and Social Development - The government is committed to ecological protection and sustainable development, with significant funding allocated for pollution control and ecosystem restoration [38][39]. - Social welfare programs are being expanded, with increased support for vulnerable populations and efforts to improve living standards [34][35].

Group 1 - The core argument is that the government aims to stimulate consumer spending to drive economic growth, as low consumer spending leads to a vicious cycle of reduced income and further decreased spending [1][10] - The current economic situation shows that many households are financially constrained, with 5.6 billion people having empty bank accounts and 90% of families having savings of less than 100,000 yuan [3][5] - The government is not merely pushing for increased spending but is trying to create an environment where consumers feel confident to spend by addressing their financial concerns [7][10] Group 2 - The government is implementing measures such as lowering deposit interest rates to encourage spending by making money feel less valuable, thus prompting consumers to spend rather than save [5][8] - Issuing consumption vouchers is intended to provide consumers with a sense of financial security, making them feel that their purchases are worthwhile [5][10] - The government recognizes that simply providing financial incentives is insufficient; it is focusing on improving income, social security, and reducing living costs to enhance consumers' spending capacity [10][11] Group 3 - The ultimate goal is to increase consumption growth rates to 5-6% and raise the proportion of final consumption in GDP to over 60%, which requires a multifaceted approach beyond just issuing consumption vouchers [10] - The shift in government strategy emphasizes enhancing consumer capability rather than just stimulating short-term spending, aiming for a healthier and more sustainable economy [10][11] - The government seeks to create a consumer environment where individuals feel they have the financial means and confidence to spend, thus revitalizing the consumption market [11]

Core Insights - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Jiangsu province is expected to create an average of over 1.35 million new urban jobs annually, indicating a strong commitment to employment growth [1] - The income ratio between urban and rural residents has narrowed from 2.16:1 to 2.04:1, reflecting a steady reduction in income disparity [1] - Jiangsu has implemented a series of measures to enhance employment support, including increasing job retention subsidies and expanding social security benefits, with a total of 18 billion yuan allocated for employment stabilization subsidies [1] Employment Initiatives - Jiangsu has introduced a combination of policies to promote high-quality and sufficient employment, including job retention subsidies, social security subsidies, and special loans [1] - The total number of employed individuals in Jiangsu remains above 20.5 million [1] - The province has provided over 2 billion yuan in entrepreneurial subsidies and guarantee loans, supporting 120,000 key groups such as university students and farmers [1] Innovation and Entrepreneurship - Jiangsu has established a supportive system to stimulate innovation and entrepreneurship, including reforms to streamline the process for individual entrepreneurs [1] - The province has attracted 3,135 outstanding domestic and international PhDs and added 3,010 new postdoctoral researchers [1] - A total of 79 national-level postdoctoral research stations have been approved, enhancing the region's innovation capacity [1] Social Security Enhancements - Jiangsu has eliminated the household registration restrictions for social insurance, allowing more migrant workers and flexible employment individuals to be included in the social security system [2] - The minimum standard for the basic pension of urban and rural residents has been increased by 20 yuan, and the unemployment insurance benefit has been raised by 100 yuan [2] - These measures aim to effectively safeguard the bottom line of people's livelihoods by steadily improving social security benefits [2]

Core Insights - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to maintain the economic foundation [1] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security reported that as of September, urban employment has shown positive trends, with significant government support for job creation [2][3] Employment Policies - In the first nine months, 10.57 million new urban jobs were created, achieving 88% of the annual target, with a September urban unemployment rate of 5.2%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Employment support policies have reduced labor costs for enterprises by 138.4 billion yuan through lower unemployment insurance rates and provided 19.6 billion yuan in wage subsidies [2] - The government has implemented various initiatives to promote entrepreneurship, resulting in 7,146 project registrations and an intended investment of 2.51 billion yuan [2] Targeted Employment Measures - Specific measures have been taken to support key groups, including college graduates and migrant workers, with initiatives like job training camps and recruitment drives [3] - The "Three Supports and One Assistance" program for college graduates has recruited 42,500 individuals, exceeding the central government's target by 8,000 [3] Social Security Developments - By the end of September, the number of participants in basic pension, unemployment, and work injury insurance reached 1.074 billion, 248 million, and 304 million, respectively [4] - The total income of the three social insurance funds was 6.69 trillion yuan, with expenditures of 6.04 trillion yuan, resulting in a surplus of 9.85 trillion yuan [4] - The pilot program for occupational injury insurance has enrolled over 22 million individuals, enhancing protection against workplace injuries [4] Pension Adjustments - Adjustments to pensions for enterprise and government retirees have been completed, benefiting approximately 150 million retirees [5] - The minimum standard for urban and rural residents' pension insurance was raised by 20 yuan, impacting around 180 million elderly residents [5] Expansion of Social Security Services - The number of social security cardholders reached 1.39 billion, covering 98.9% of the population, with 1.1 billion using electronic cards [5] - A nationwide campaign to promote social security services has engaged nearly 10 million participants through various outreach activities [5][6] National Occupational Standards - Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, 328 national occupational standards have been issued, including 51 new standards this year [7][8] - The new standards aim to meet the demands of emerging professions and critical sectors, with a focus on enhancing workforce skills and competitiveness [8]

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party emphasizes stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to maintain the economic foundation, while also focusing on livelihood security and multi-channel potential exploration [1] Employment Policies and Achievements - In the first nine months, 10.57 million new urban jobs were created, achieving 88% of the annual target, with a September urban unemployment rate of 5.2%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Employment support policies have significantly reduced costs for enterprises, with a total of 138.4 billion yuan saved from reduced unemployment insurance rates, 19.6 billion yuan in wage subsidies, and 16.6 billion yuan for training and employment promotion [2] - The government has implemented a one-time expansion subsidy policy, benefiting 140,000 enterprises with 900 million yuan, supporting 600,000 college graduates and youth [2] Targeted Employment Strategies - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security has launched initiatives for youth employment, including job training camps and the recruitment of one million internship positions [3] - The "Three Supports and One Assistance" program for college graduates has recruited 42,500 personnel, exceeding the central government's target by 8,000 [3] - Support services for migrant workers and unemployed individuals have been enhanced, providing comprehensive employment services [3] Social Security Developments - As of September, the number of participants in basic pension, unemployment, and work injury insurance reached 1.074 billion, 248 million, and 304 million respectively, with total social insurance fund income of 6.69 trillion yuan and expenditure of 6.04 trillion yuan [4] - The pilot program for occupational injury insurance has enrolled over 22 million people, effectively providing protection against occupational injuries [4] Pension and Benefits Adjustments - Adjustments to pensions for enterprise and government retirees have been completed, benefiting approximately 150 million retirees, with a minimum increase of 20 yuan in the basic pension for urban and rural residents [5] - The social security card system has expanded, with 1.39 billion cardholders, covering 98.9% of the population, and facilitating various social security services [5][6] National Occupational Standards - Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, 328 national occupational standards have been issued, including 51 new standards this year, aimed at enhancing vocational training and labor development [7][8] - The new standards address the rapid development of new occupations and the urgent need for talent in key sectors, including advanced manufacturing and digital economy [8]

Employment Situation - The employment situation remains generally stable, with 10.57 million new urban jobs created in the first nine months, achieving 88% of the annual target [1] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in September was 5.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] Social Security - As of the end of September, the number of participants in basic pension, unemployment, and work injury insurance reached 1.074 billion, 248 million, and 304 million respectively [1] - The total income of the three social insurance funds in the first nine months was 6.69 trillion yuan, with total expenditures of 6.04 trillion yuan, resulting in a cumulative surplus of 9.85 trillion yuan by the end of September [1] - The scale of entrusted investment in the basic pension insurance fund exceeded 2.72 trillion yuan, while the investment operation scale of enterprise (occupational) annuities surpassed 7.7 trillion yuan [1] Pension System Adjustments - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security issued a notice regarding personal pension withdrawals, clarifying operational methods to meet diverse needs [2] - The basic pension standard for urban and rural residents was increased by 20 yuan starting July 1, with 13 provinces further raising local basic pension standards [2] Talent Development - The Ministry has developed 95 national occupational standards to meet the rapid development of new occupations and urgent talent needs in key areas [2][3] - New occupational standards include roles such as drone swarm flight planners and intelligent manufacturing system operators, reflecting the growing demand in emerging fields [3] - A total of 37 of the new standards belong to key areas, including 19 in advanced manufacturing and 6 in the digital economy [3] Future Plans - The Ministry aims to enhance the employment support system, implement targeted measures for key groups, and conduct large-scale vocational skills training [4] - There will be a continued deepening of social security system reforms, including nationwide coordination of basic pension insurance and expansion of occupational injury protection trials [4] - The Ministry plans to improve talent evaluation mechanisms and strengthen the construction of professional and skilled talent teams [4]

Group 1: Employment and Income - Implementation of employment-first strategy to enhance employment promotion mechanisms [1] - Support for new occupations and job creation, focusing on stabilizing and expanding employment for key groups such as college graduates and veterans [1][2] - Increase in residents' income share in national income distribution and improvement of labor remuneration in primary distribution [2] Group 2: Consumption and Public Services - Initiatives to boost consumer spending and enhance public service expenditure [3][4] - Expansion of quality consumer goods and services supply, with a focus on removing unreasonable consumption restrictions [4] - Implementation of special actions to stimulate consumption and improve residents' consumption capacity [4] Group 3: Education and Talent Development - Strengthening education evaluation and expanding educational resources for urban populations [5] - Support for youth innovation and entrepreneurship, fostering top-tier innovative talents [6] - Enhancements in vocational education and teacher welfare [5][6] Group 4: Health and Social Security - Improvement of healthcare systems and promotion of public health initiatives [7] - Optimization of birth support policies and enhancement of family support measures [8][9] - Development of a multi-tiered pension system and improvement of social security coverage [10] Group 5: Housing and Infrastructure - Optimization of affordable housing supply to meet the basic needs of urban wage earners and disadvantaged families [11] - Implementation of safety and quality improvement measures for housing [11] - Development of age-friendly public facilities and long-term care insurance [12]

该书的出版，有利于广大党员干部深入学习习近平总书记关于社会保障的重要论述，持续深化社 会保障制度改革，为人民群众提供更加充分、更加可靠、更加公平的社会保障服务，更好共享改 革发展成果。 党的十八大以来，以习近平同志为核心的党中央高度重视社会保障工作，推动健全覆盖全民、统 筹城乡、公平统一、安全规范、可持续的多层次社会保障体系，有效发挥了社会保障在保障和改 善民生、维护社会公平、增进人民福祉等方面的重要作用。习近平总书记关于社会保障的重要论 述，深化了对社会保障事业发展的规律性认识，为新时代我国社会保障事业高质量发展指明了前 进方向、提供了根本遵循。该书共分15章，从历史经验、形势任务、改革举措等方面，对习近平 总书记关于社会保障的重要论述的核心要义、精神实质、丰富内涵和实践要求作了阐释。 新华社北京10月27日电 人力资源社会保障部组织编写的《深入学习习近平关于社会保障的重要论 述》一书，近日由人民出版社出版，在全国发行。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The continuous efforts in expanding and improving social security in China have resulted in basic pension and medical insurance coverage rates remaining above 95%, ensuring the basic needs of the population are met [1] Group 1 - The Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics emphasized the importance of social security in safeguarding the basic needs of the people [1] - The participation rates for basic pension and medical insurance have consistently been maintained at over 95% [1]