证券研究报告 | 2026年01月30日 2026年01月31日 金融工程日报 沪指跌近 1%，有色金属板块回调、CPO 方向领涨 核心观点 金融工程日报 市场表现：20260130 大部分指数处于下跌状态，规模指数中中证 2000 指 数表现较好，板块指数中创业板指表现较好，风格指数中沪深 300 成长指数 表现较好。通信、电子、农林牧渔、煤炭、轻工制造行业表现较好，有色金 属、钢铁、食品饮料、房地产、综合金融行业表现较差。光模块(CPO)、光 纤、光通信、大豆、光芯片等概念表现较好，铅锌矿、稀土、黄金珠宝、稀 有金属精选、铜产业等概念表现较差。 市场情绪：20260130 收盘时有 59 只股票涨停，有 61 只股票跌停。昨日涨 停股票今日表现低迷，赚钱效应较弱，收盘收益为-1.14%，昨日跌停股票今 日收盘收益为-0.50%。今日封板率 65%，较前日提升 1%，连板率 10%， 较前日下降 13%，连板率创近一个月新低。 市场资金流向：截至 20260129 两融余额为 27394 亿元，其中融资余额 27222 亿元，融券余额 171 亿元。两融余额占流通市值比重为 2.6%，两融 交易占市场成交额 ...

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4132.61 points, down 0.09%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 14316.64 points, down 0.85% [1][4][7] - Among the 30 sectors tracked, 9 sectors saw gains, with non-ferrous metals, oil, petrochemicals, and coal leading the increases, while defense, automotive, and comprehensive finance sectors faced significant declines [1][4][7] - The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 32,806 billion, showing a slight increase compared to the previous day [1][4][7] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices all closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.64%, the S&P 500 up 0.5%, and the Nasdaq up 0.43%. Notably, Cisco rose over 3% and Apple nearly 3%, leading the Dow [2][4] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.6%, with Baidu dropping over 3% and Xpeng Motors down over 2% [2][4] Key News Highlights - The Ministry of Commerce announced plans to optimize the implementation of the old-for-new consumption policy [3][9] - By 2025, domestic residents are expected to travel 6.522 billion times, a year-on-year increase of 16.2% [11] - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the establishment of a new strategic partnership between China and Canada is beneficial for global peace and stability [12] Driving Factors - Recent policies aimed at fostering new growth points in service consumption are set to be introduced, including measures to expand inbound consumption and optimize the old-for-new consumption policy for durable goods like automobiles and home appliances [8] - On the same day, 1,604 stocks rose while 3,771 fell, indicating a market in consolidation with a focus on macroeconomic data [8]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw most indices decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.09% closing at 4132.61 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.85% at 14316.64 points, the ChiNext Index down by 0.91% at 3319.15 points, and the STAR 50 Index down by 1.35% at 1532.8 points [1] - Overall, there were 1602 stocks that rose and 3767 stocks that fell, with a total trading volume of 32,482 billion yuan, an increase of 1630 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the primary industries, non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery led the gains with increases of 4.57%, 3.18%, 2.07%, 0.85%, and 0.79% respectively [1] - Conversely, industries such as defense and military, automotive, social services, electronics, and real estate experienced declines, with decreases of 4.47%, 2.31%, 2.30%, 2.24%, and 2.23% respectively [1] Concept Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors included gold and jewelry, vaccines, selected rare metals, animal health, blood products, industrial metals, nickel ore, rare earths, influenza, cobalt ore, small metals, and biotechnology [2] - Sectors such as satellite internet, commercial aerospace, satellite navigation, and military information technology experienced pullbacks [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw all major indices rise today, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.08% closing at 4116.94 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.70% at 14255.13 points, the Sci-Tech 50 Index up by 3.53% at 1535.39 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.54% at 3295.52 points [1][10] - Overall, 3095 stocks rose while 2195 stocks fell, with a total market turnover of 26,006 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,770 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the top gainers included non-ferrous metals (up 2.79%), electronics (up 2.62%), machinery and equipment (up 1.50%), steel (up 1.39%), and building materials (up 1.35%) [1][10] - Conversely, the banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors experienced declines, with decreases of 1.58%, 1.57%, and 1.53% respectively [1][10] Concept Sector Performance - The leading concept sectors today included GPU, advanced packaging, selected rare metals, lithium mining, gold and jewelry, circuit boards, copper industry, optical modules (CPO), HBM, analog chips, small metals, ASIC chips, copper-clad laminates, selected semiconductors, and automotive chips [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a general upward trend today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.92% to close at 4120.43 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.15% to 14120.15 points [1] - The ChiNext Index rose by 0.77% to 3327.81 points, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index increased by 1.43% to 1475.97 points [1] - Overall, 3918 stocks rose, while 1344 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 31,227 billion yuan, an increase of 3,224 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, sectors such as Media, Comprehensive, National Defense and Military Industry, Computer, and Nonferrous Metals led the gains, with increases of 5.31%, 3.60%, 3.29%, 2.90%, and 2.78% respectively [1] - Conversely, the Banking and Non-Banking Financial sectors experienced declines of 0.44% and 0.20% respectively [1] Concept Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors today included Pinduoduo partners, Xiaohongshu platform, Kimi, Douyin Doubao, WEB3.0, Virtual Humans, ChatGPT, AIGC, Internet Celebrity Economy, Rare Metals Selection, Multimodal Models, Short Drama Games, Intelligent Agents, Chinese Corpus, and Live Streaming E-commerce [2] - In contrast, sectors such as Silicon Energy, Power Equipment Selection, Photovoltaic Glass, Insurance Selection, and Banking Selection saw a pullback [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.07% closing at 4082.98 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.51% to 13959.48 points. The ChiNext Index decreased by 0.82% to 3302.31 points, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index rose by 0.82% to 1455.17 points. Overall, 3730 stocks rose while 1588 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 28003 billion yuan, a decrease of 539 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][2]. Industry Performance - Among the primary industries, sectors such as defense and military, media, construction decoration, real estate, and building materials led the gains, with increases of 4.18%, 2.00%, 1.76%, 1.60%, and 1.33% respectively. Conversely, non-bank financials, metals, telecommunications, and banking sectors experienced declines of 2.81%, 1.56%, 0.95%, and 0.89% respectively [1][2]. Concept Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors included large aircraft, satellite internet, commercial aerospace, aircraft carriers, military information technology, and military-civilian integration, among others. In contrast, sectors such as stock trading software, rare metals, and insurance saw a pullback [2].

Market Performance - The overall market rose on January 6, 2026, with the CSI 500 index performing well, increasing by 2.13%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.50%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index increased by 1.40% [1][6] - Among sectors, non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, defense and military industry, oil and petrochemicals, and basic chemicals showed strong performance with returns of 4.25%, 3.82%, 3.30%, 2.85%, and 2.69% respectively. In contrast, communication, food and beverage, home appliances, banking, and consumer services sectors performed poorly with returns of -0.87%, 0.45%, 0.48%, 0.50%, and 0.61% respectively [1][8] - Concept themes such as stock trading software, titanium dioxide, vanadium-titanium, PTA, and rare metals performed well with returns of 9.18%, 6.09%, 6.02%, 5.81%, and 5.75% respectively, while concepts like optical modules, base stations, optical communication, Google supply chain, and Shein partners performed poorly with returns of -1.85%, -1.13%, -0.92%, -0.91%, and -0.85% respectively [1][11] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment was high on January 6, 2026, with 141 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 2 stocks hitting the limit down. Stocks that were limit up the previous day opened higher and closed with a return of 5.76%, while limit down stocks had a return of 0.26% [2][15][18] - The sealing rate was 83%, up 7% from the previous day, and the consecutive sealing rate was 41%, up 11% from the previous day, indicating a strong market sentiment and a new high for the consecutive sealing rate in nearly a month [2][20] Market Capital Flow - As of January 5, 2026, the margin trading balance was 25,606 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 25,434 billion yuan and a securities lending balance of 172 billion yuan. The margin trading balance accounted for 2.6% of the circulating market value, and margin trading accounted for 11.4% of the market transaction volume [3][25] Premium and Discount - On January 5, 2026, the bank AH preferred ETF had the highest premium at 2.19%, while the Hong Kong-Shenzhen 300 ETF had the highest discount at 1.11%. The average discount rate for block trades over the past six months was 6.66%, with a discount rate of 9.01% on that day [4][30][32] - The annualized discount rates for the main contracts of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures were 0.85%, 3.79%, 11.15%, and 13.61% respectively. On January 6, 2026, the annualized premium rate for the SSE 50 index futures was 0.51%, while the CSI 300 and CSI 500 index futures had annualized discount rates of 1.41% and 1.89% respectively [4][36] Institutional Attention and Rankings - In the past week, the stocks with the most institutional research were Guangliwei, Tianyang Technology, Dingtong Technology, Liugong, Zhumi Group, Puris, Zhongke Jiangnan, and Hengyi Petrochemical, with Guangliwei being researched by 96 institutions [5][37] - On January 6, 2026, the top ten stocks with net inflow from institutional special seats included Liou Shares, Haige Communication, Daoshi Technology, and others, while the top ten stocks with net outflow included Tongyu Communication, Yingliu Shares, and others [5][41][44]

- The provided content does not include any quantitative models or factors, nor their construction, evaluation, or backtesting results

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a general upward trend today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.50% to close at 4083.67 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.40% to 14022.55 points [1] - The ChiNext Index rose by 0.75% to 3319.29 points, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index saw a gain of 1.84%, closing at 1429.3 points [1] - Overall, 4101 stocks rose while 1218 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 28065 billion yuan, an increase of 2602 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, basic chemicals, defense and military industry, and comprehensive sectors led the gains, with increases of 4.26%, 3.73%, 3.12%, 3.08%, and 2.89% respectively [1] - The only sector that experienced a decline was the telecommunications industry, which fell by 0.77% [1] Concept Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors included stock trading software, rare metals selection, chemical raw materials selection, cobalt mines, satellite internet, satellite navigation, phosphorus chemicals, small metals, brain-computer interfaces, vanadium batteries, insurance selection, aircraft carriers, nickel mines, aluminum industry, and industrial metals selection [2] - Conversely, sectors such as optical modules (CPO), optical communication, copper-clad laminates, and central enterprise banks experienced a pullback [2]

Group 1: Macro and Industry Policy Tracking - The report highlights a focus on multi-field collaborative advancement in industry policies, including the cultivation of emerging industries such as integrated circuits and low-altitude economy, as well as strengthening 6G research [1][10] - The housing and urban-rural construction meeting emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market and developing a new model characterized by the sale of existing homes, with a focus on policies tailored to individual cities [1][12] - The transportation department predicts that yacht and cruise consumption will evolve towards mass-market and large-scale development, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [1][13] Group 2: Financial Regulations - The financial regulatory authority has standardized the information disclosure of asset management products to protect investor rights, ensuring transparency and accountability in financial products [1][16] Group 3: Energy and Technology Developments - The energy sector is promoting the large-scale development of solar thermal power and has introduced the world's first mandatory standard for electric vehicle energy consumption, which will enhance vehicle performance and consumer experience [1][18] - A significant technological breakthrough was achieved in the field of superconducting magnetic levitation, with a test speed of 700 km/h, marking a milestone in China's technological advancement [1][19] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the top five sectors by growth being industrial trade and comprehensive (+7.34%), non-ferrous metals (+6.55%), chemicals (+5.86%), national defense and military industry (+5.81%), and hardware equipment (+4.99%) [1][22] Group 5: Popular Concepts Tracking - The report identifies the top five popular concepts this week, with lithium battery electrolyte (+17.80%), Hainan Free Trade Port (+10.98%), 6G (+9.40%), RF and antennas (+9.27%), and power batteries (+8.78%) showing significant growth [2][25]