弘业纯碱周报 2025.11.21 分析师范阿骄 从业资格证F3054801 投资咨询证号Z0016954 ➢ 供给方面：周内国内纯碱产量72.08吨，环比下降1.85万吨，跌幅2.50%。纯碱综合产能利用率82.68%，上周84.80%，环比下降2.12%。近期，部分企业设备问题，导致产 量下降。 纯碱行情研判 ➢ 市场概况：本周纯碱期货价格震荡偏弱，主力合约SA601收盘报1,170元/吨，周内小幅上涨0.09%，但远月合约持续贴水，市场情绪受制于供需宽松格局。现货端价格 重碱区域分化，重碱承压，稳中趋弱，库存延续去化但绝对水平仍处高位，行业利润承压，整体基本面未现根本性改善。短期来看，装置检修与库存下降提供一定支撑，但 远期新增产能释放预期未消，叠加玻璃行业持续低迷，重碱需求缺乏弹性，供需过剩格局未改。价格运行或延续"震荡偏弱、底部震荡"格局。 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 纯碱1-5月差 月差 01合约 05合约 ➢ 核心观点： ➢ 本周主力合约SA601周内微涨0.09%，期货价格主要由成本支撑（ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, and inventory is at a high level compared to the same period. The imbalance between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily View - Fundamental analysis shows that alkali plant production is at a high level, the second - phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year, overall supply is expected to be abundant; there are supply disturbance expectations for downstream float glass, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and soda ash plant inventory is at a historically high level (bearish). The basis shows that the spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1190 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1239 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 49 yuan, and the futures are at a premium to the spot (bearish). Inventory shows that the national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7073 million tons, a 0.40% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average (bearish). The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward (neutral). The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing (bearish) [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - **Likely factors**: The supply of downstream glass has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, increasing the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Bearish factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - quality soda ash has cut production, weakening the demand for soda ash [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1239 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1190 yuan/ton, and the main basis is - 49 yuan. Compared with the previous value, the closing price of the main contract increased by 2.06%, the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe increased by 2.59%, and the main basis decreased by 9.26% [6]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1190 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan increase from the previous day [12]. 5. Fundamental - Supply - **Production profit**: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 103.50 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production process is - 212 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [15]. - **Operating rate and production volume**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.67%. The weekly production volume of soda ash is 746,800 tons, including 414,800 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, at a historically high level [18][20]. - **Capacity changes**: In 2023, the newly added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly added production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 6. Fundamental - Demand - **Production - sales rate**: The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 98.36% [24]. - **Downstream demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,100 tons, with an operating rate of 75.92% [27]. 7. Fundamental - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7073 million tons, a 0.40% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 8. Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated within a narrow range, with the main contract SA2601 closing 1.22% lower than the previous week at 1,210 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,155 yuan/ton, down 1.28% from the previous week. The supply had minor fluctuations due to equipment issues in some enterprises, and the overall supply was abundant with the expected commissioning of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II by the end of the year. The downstream demand was average, and the inventory was at a historically high level. Overall, the fundamentals of soda ash remained weak, and it was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly View - Futures: The main contract SA2601 of soda ash futures closed at 1,210 yuan/ton, down 1.22% from the previous week [3]. - Spot: The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,155 yuan/ton, down 1.28% from the previous week [3]. - Supply: There were short - term reductions due to equipment problems in some enterprises, but the overall output had minor adjustments. The expected output next week was 740,000 tons, and the operating rate was 85%. Yuangxing Energy's Phase II was expected to be commissioned by the end of the year, with abundant overall supply [3]. - Demand: The downstream demand was general, and the funds were under pressure. The daily melting volume of float glass was 159,100 tons, a decrease of 2,140 tons from the previous week; the daily output of photovoltaic glass was 88,100 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons [3]. - Inventory: As of November 6, the national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.7142 million tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory was at a historically high level [3]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Likely to Rise**: The supply of downstream glass has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, increasing the demand for soda ash [5]. - **Likely to Fall**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large commissioning plans this year. The industry output is at a historically high level. The production of photovoltaic glass, a downstream product of heavy soda ash, has decreased, weakening the demand for soda ash [6]. 3.3 Main Logic The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [7]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Quotes - Futures: The main contract SA2601 closed at 1,210 yuan/ton, down 1.22% from the previous week [8]. - Spot: The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,155 yuan/ton, down 1.28% from the previous week [8]. - Basis: The main basis remained unchanged at - 55 yuan/ton [8]. 3.5 Fundamental - Supply - Production Profit: The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process was - 103.50 yuan/ton, and that of East China's co - production process was - 212 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [17]. - Operating Rate and Output: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 85.67%, and the weekly output was 746,800 tons, including 414,800 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historically high level [20][22]. - Production Capacity Changes: From 2023 to 2025, there were continuous new production capacity projects in the soda ash industry, with a total planned new capacity of 1.57 million tons, and 100,000 tons were actually commissioned in 2025 [25]. 3.6 Fundamental - Demand - Sales - to - Production Ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 98.36% [28]. - Downstream Demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 159,100 tons, and the operating rate was 75.92% [31]. 3.7 Fundamental - Inventory The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.7142 million tons, an increase of 0.72% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [38]. 3.8 Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The document provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core View of the Report The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply of soda ash is high, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. Although there is a positive factor that the daily melting volume of float glass has stabilized and rebounded, overall, the market is bearish [2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily View - The supply of soda ash is expected to be abundant, with high output from alkali plants and the expected commissioning of Yuanying Phase II before the end of the year. The supply of downstream float glass is expected to be disrupted, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a high level in the same period. The basis shows that the futures price is higher than the spot price. The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. Overall, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 2. Impact Factors Summary - **L利多 Factors**: The daily melting volume of float glass has stabilized and rebounded [3]. - **利空 Factors**: The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is high, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.81% to 1225 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased by 0.85% to 1170 yuan/ton, and the main basis remained unchanged at - 55 yuan/ton [6]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 5. Soda Ash Production - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 86.89%. The weekly output is 75.76 tons, including 41.98 tons of heavy soda ash, which is at a historical high. Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large commissioning plans this year [18][20][5]. 6. Soda Ash Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 99.78%. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 16.13 tons, and the operating rate of 76.35% has stabilized. The production of heavy - soda downstream photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [24][27][5]. 7. Soda Ash Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.702 million tons, a decrease of 0.01% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [34]. 8. Soda Ash Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the supply - demand balance data of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including effective production capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated within a narrow range, with the main contract SA2601 closing 1.65% higher than the previous week at 1,229 yuan/ton. The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe increased by 2.61% to 1,180 yuan/ton. Supply remains at a high level, with expected production of 760,000 tons and an operating rate of 87% next week. The overall supply is abundant as the second - phase project of Yuangxing Energy is expected to be put into operation by the end of the year. Downstream demand is average, mainly on a need - to - buy basis, and the current situation is weak with continuous financial pressure. The daily melting volume of float glass remained stable at 161,300 tons, while that of photovoltaic glass decreased by 100 tons to 88,700 tons. As of October 23, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7021 million tons, a 0.09% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is at a historically high level. Overall, the fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Soda Ash Futures and Spot Market - The main contract of soda ash futures closed at 1,229 yuan/ton, up 1.65% from the previous week. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,180 yuan/ton, up 2.61%. The main basis was - 49 yuan/ton, down 16.95% [9]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,180 yuan/ton, up 2.61% from the previous week [15]. - The profit of heavy soda ash production is at a historical low, with a profit of - 92.40 yuan/ton for the North China ammonia - soda process and - 199 yuan/ton for the East China co - production process [18]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 84.94%. The weekly production was 740,600 tons, including 410,000 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high. The heavy - production rate was 55.36% [21][23][25]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity. The planned new production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [26]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash was 99.78% [29]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 161,300 tons, with an operating rate of 76.35% remaining stable [32]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7021 million tons, a 0.09% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [39]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, showing changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, and other indicators [40]. 4. Influencing Factors Positive Factors The peak maintenance season is approaching this year, and production is expected to decline [5]. Negative Factors - Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historically high level [6]. - The production of photovoltaic glass, a downstream product of heavy soda ash, has decreased, leading to weaker demand for soda ash [8]. - The positive sentiment of macro - policies has faded [8]. 5. Main Logic The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand has declined, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [7].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is maintaining a weak and stable operation with little price fluctuation, indicating a supply surplus and moderate demand [2][5][6]. Price Summary - Light soda ash prices in East China are stable at 1130-1600 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash prices range from 1250-1320 CNY/ton [2]. - The price index for light soda ash is 1160, unchanged from the previous working day, and the heavy soda ash price index is 1211.43, down 1.43, a decrease of -0.12% [3]. Market Dynamics - The main contract for soda ash (SA2601) opened at 1240 CNY/ton and closed at 1209 CNY/ton, with a daily decline of 1.47% [5]. - The market is currently lacking clear directional drivers, with the supply-demand imbalance continuing to exert pressure on prices [5][6]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply remains high despite some companies undergoing maintenance, and the overall production capacity is substantial, making it difficult to fundamentally change the supply surplus situation [6]. - Demand from downstream industries, particularly glass, has not shown significant improvement, and companies are primarily adopting a cautious purchasing strategy based on actual needs [2][6]. Future Outlook - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a weak and stable oscillation in the short term, with no significant changes anticipated in supply or demand dynamics [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The macro situation is bearish, and the fundamentals of soda ash are weak. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Sino-US trade frictions may intensify; the maintenance volume of soda ash plants is lower than expected, and the second phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year. The overall supply is at a high level. The supply of downstream float glass is highly volatile, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high for the same period, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei is 1,150 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,240 yuan/ton, and the basis is -90 yuan. The futures price is higher than the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.6598 million tons, an increase of 0.50% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average, which is bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increases, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The macro situation is bearish, and the fundamentals of soda ash are weak. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - **Bullish Factors**: During the peak maintenance period this year, the production is expected to decline [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level for the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. The risk points are that the cold repair of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is lower than expected, and the macro利好 is higher than expected [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.80% from the previous value. The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.29% from the previous value. The main basis is -90 yuan, an increase of 5.88% from the previous value [6]. 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market in Hebei is 1,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by the ammonia-alkali method in North China is -89.25 yuan/ton, and the profit by the co-production method in East China is -114.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - **Operating Rate and Production Capacity**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 88.41%. The weekly production of soda ash is 770,800 tons, including 428,700 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [17][19]. - **Production Capacity Changes**: From 2023 to 2025, there has been a significant expansion of soda ash production capacity, with large-scale production plans each year. The total planned production capacity in 2023 is 6.4 million tons, 1.8 million tons in 2024, and 7.5 million tons in 2025, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 92.23% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 161,300 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 76.01%. The demand for soda ash from the downstream photovoltaic glass has weakened [27][5]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.6598 million tons, an increase of 0.50% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average [34]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The supply and demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows that the production capacity, production, import, export, and other data of soda ash have changed over the years, and the supply and demand gap also varies [35].

Core Viewpoint - The main focus is on the recent decline in soda ash futures prices, indicating a persistent oversupply in the market and pressure on prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Soda ash futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 1289.00 yuan and closing at 1309.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 5.01% [1]. - The market is characterized by a long-term oversupply, leading to sustained pressure on prices [2][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Institutions highlight that the supply of soda ash is expected to increase due to the resumption of previously offline production facilities, while downstream demand remains weak [3][4]. - The overall inventory levels across the industry chain are high, contributing to the bearish sentiment in the market [2][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - National Investment Trust expects the soda ash market to remain under pressure due to the ongoing oversupply situation [2]. - Ningzheng Futures predicts short-term fluctuations for the soda ash January contract, with resistance around 1345 yuan [3]. - Southwest Futures advises caution in trading positions due to increased price volatility driven by market speculation [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. The short - term is expected to be mainly in a volatile trend. The industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory [2][5]. 3. Directory Summary 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance is rare, supply remains high; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, photovoltaic daily melting volume drops significantly, terminal demand weakens, and soda ash factory inventory is at a historical high; bearish [2] - **Basis**: Hebei Shahe heavy - quality soda ash spot price is 1260 yuan/ton, SA2601 closing price is 1386 yuan/ton, basis is - 126 yuan, futures are at a premium to the spot; bearish [2] - **Inventory**: National soda ash factory inventory is 189.38 tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and inventory is running above the 5 - year average; bearish [2] - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; neutral [2] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increase; bearish [2] - **Expectation**: Soda ash fundamentals have strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [2] 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive**: The peak summer maintenance period is coming, and production will decline [3] - **Negative**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year; downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - quality soda ash has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash; the sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has subsided [5] 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy - Quality Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1395 | 1280 | - 115 | | Current Value | 1386 | 1260 | - 126 | | Change Rate | - 0.65% | - 1.56% | 9.57% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe market is 1260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [11] 3.5 Supply in Fundamentals - **Production Profit**: North China ammonia - soda process profit is - 25.60 yuan/ton, East China co - production process profit is - 41 yuan/ton, and soda ash production profit has rebounded from a historical low [14] - **开工率 and Production**: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.32%, and the expected operating rate will decline seasonally. The weekly production of soda ash is 76.13 tons, including 42.97 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, with production at a historical high [17][19] - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 750 tons, with actual production of 100 tons [21] 3.6 Demand in Fundamentals - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.73% [24] - **Downstream Demand**: - **Float Glass**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 15.96 tons, and the operating rate of 75.34% is stable [27] - **Photovoltaic Glass**: Photovoltaic glass prices continue to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume continues a significant downward trend [33] 3.7 Inventory in Fundamentals National soda ash factory inventory is 189.38 tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and inventory is running above the 5 - year average [36] 3.8 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [37]

Core Viewpoint - Recent significant increase in soda ash spot prices has led to improved profitability for some production companies, although most remain in a loss position [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Downstream companies show low acceptance of the recent price increase, primarily focusing on depleting existing inventory with limited procurement intentions [1] - Supply expectations indicate a potential reduction in maintenance among companies in August, which may lead to a recovery in operational load for soda ash producers; however, if anti-involution policies are not implemented, supply is likely to remain ample in August [1] - Demand has seen a notable increase in pending orders due to significant price hikes and speculative trading activity, although profit improvements in float and photovoltaic glass remain limited, weakening the marginal support for soda ash demand [1] - The overall supply-demand balance suggests that the mid-term oversupply situation in the soda ash industry may not change, with ongoing supply pressure [1]