1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are bearish as the production load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II project is increasing, the output of soda ash plants is at a high level, the overall supply is expected to be abundant, the daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass is declining, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at the highest level in the same period in history. The basis shows that the futures price is higher than the spot price, which is also bearish. The inventory is above the 5-year average, which is bearish. The main position is net short with an increase in short positions, which is bearish. However, the price is running above the 20-day line, and the 20-day line is upward, which is bullish. In general, due to the cost support, soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The production load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II project is increasing, the output of soda ash plants is at a high level, the overall supply is expected to be abundant; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass is declining, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at the highest level in the same period in history, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,230 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1,256 yuan/ton, and the basis is -26 yuan, indicating that the futures price is higher than the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national inventory of soda ash in plants is 1.9317 million tons, a decrease of 0.80% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average, which is bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20-day line, and the 20-day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Due to the cost support, soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Likely to Rise**: There is less cold repair of downstream float glass, and the output remains stable; the conflict between the United States and Iran boosts the bullish sentiment in the market [4]. - **Likely to Fall**: The production load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II production line is increasing, and there is no expectation of new maintenance, so the output is expected to remain at a high level. The production of heavy soda ash downstream photovoltaic glass is decreasing, and the demand for soda ash is weakening [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low-end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,277 | 1,255 | -22 | | Current Value | 1,256 | 1,230 | -26 | | Change Rate | -1.64% | -1.99% | 18.18% | [5] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [11]. 3.5 Soda Ash Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the North China ammonia-alkali method is -94.20 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co-production method is 86 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [14]. 3.6 Soda Ash开工率、产能产量 - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87% [17]. - The weekly output of soda ash is 809,200 tons, including 428,300 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output is at a historical high [19]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Soda Ash Sales Ratio**: The weekly sales ratio of soda ash is 101.92% [22]. - **Soda Ash Downstream Demand**: - **Float Glass**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 146,900 tons, and the operating rate is 71.05% [25]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: Not provided in the content 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national inventory of soda ash in plants is 1.9317 million tons, a decrease of 0.80% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average [30]. 3.9 Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity (10,000 tons) | Output (10,000 tons) | Operating Rate | Imports | Exports | Net Imports | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Gap (10,000 tons) | Capacity Growth Rate | Output Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3,035 | 2,715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | -138 | 2,577 | 2,517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3,087 | 2,583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | -109 | 2,474 | 2,523 | -49 | 1.85% | -4.86% | -4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3,247 | 2,804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | -125 | 2,679 | 2,631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3,317 | 2,757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | -102 | 2,655 | 2,607 | 48 | 2.16% | -1.68% | -0.90% | -0.91% | | 2021 | 3,288 | 2,892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | -50 | 2,842 | 2,764 | 78 | -0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3,114 | 2,944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | -195 | 2,749 | 2,913 | -164 | -5.29% | 1.80% | -3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3,342 | 3,228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | -62 | 3,166 | 3,155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3,930 | 3,650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | -114 | 3,536 | 3,379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [31]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to move in a range in the short term. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1,276 yuan/ton to 1,235 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.21%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased from 1,250 yuan/ton to 1,210 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.20%. The main basis decreased from - 26 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.85% [5]. II. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,210 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. III. Soda Ash Production - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 154.65 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process is - 70.50 yuan/ton, at a historical low [14]. - **开工率 and Output**: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 85.04%. The weekly output of soda ash is 80.70 tons, of which heavy soda ash is 43.23 tons, at a historical high [17][19]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the total new capacity of soda ash was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [20]. IV. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales Ratio**: The weekly sales ratio of soda ash is 61.12% [23]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 14.85 tons, and the operating rate is 70.81% [26]. V. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of soda ash in factories nationwide is 194.72 tons, an increase of 2.79% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [31]. VI. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak. The start - up load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II production line has increased, resulting in high production and an expected abundant supply. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass has declined, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level. Although the conflict between the US and Iran has boosted sentiment, the short - term trend is expected to be mainly volatile [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The start - up load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II has increased, with high production and an expected abundant supply. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass has declined, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level, which is bearish [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,175 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1,218 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 43 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [3]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8944 million tons, an increase of 19.29% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [3][34]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [3]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [3]. - **Expectation**: The conflict between the US and Iran has boosted sentiment, but the fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [3]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: There are few cold repairs of downstream float glass, and the production remains stable [4]. - **Negative Factors**: The start - up load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II production line has increased, and there is no expectation of new overhauls, so the production is expected to remain high. The production of heavy - soda downstream photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. The supply of soda ash is high, the terminal demand has declined, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [6]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,188 | 1,155 | - 33 | | Current Value | 1,218 | 1,175 | - 43 | | Change Rate | 2.53% | 1.73% | 30.30% | [7] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,175 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. 3.5 Soda Ash Production - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 162.25 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production method is - 69.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [16]. - **Start - up Rate and Production**: The weekly start - up rate of the soda ash industry is 85.04%. The weekly production of soda ash is 790,900 tons, including 423,000 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [19][21]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the total new capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [22]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Soda Ash Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 61.12% [25]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 148,600 tons, and the start - up rate is 70.61% [28]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8944 million tons, an increase of 19.29% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, start - up rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak. With the start - up load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II increasing and the overall supply expected to be abundant, while the daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: The start - up load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II has increased, the production of soda ash plants is at a high level, and the overall supply is expected to be abundant. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level; bearish [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,150 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1,194 yuan/ton, the basis is - 44 yuan, and the futures are at a premium to the spot; bearish [3]. - **Inventory**: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8944 million tons, an increase of 19.29% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average; bearish [3]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [3]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing; bearish [3]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. 2. Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: There are few cold repairs of downstream float glass, and the production remains stable [4]. - **Negative factors**: The start - up load of Yuangxing Energy's Phase II production line has increased, and there is no expectation of new maintenance, so the production is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [6]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous value | 1,191 | 1,150 | - 41 | | Current value | 1,194 | 1,150 | - 44 | | Change rate | 0.25% | 0.00% | 7.32% | [7] 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of the heavy soda ash market in Hebei Shahe is 1,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [13]. 5. Soda Ash Production - **Production profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 162.25 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production method is - 69.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [16]. - **Start - up rate and production capacity**: The weekly start - up rate of the soda ash industry is 85.04%. The weekly production of soda ash is 790,900 tons, including 423,000 tons of heavy soda ash, with the production at a historical high [19][21]. - **Production capacity changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; the planned new production capacity in 2025 was 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [22]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales ratio**: The weekly sales ratio of soda ash is 61.12% [25]. - **Downstream demand**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 148,600 tons, and the start - up rate is 70.61% [28]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8944 million tons, an increase of 19.29% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 8. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Production Capacity (10,000 tons) | Output (10,000 tons) | Start - up Rate | Import (10,000 tons) | Export (10,000 tons) | Net Import (10,000 tons) | apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (10,000 tons) | Production Capacity Growth Rate | Output Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3035 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3087 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The operating load of the second - phase production line of Yuangxing Energy has increased, the output of soda ash plants is at a high level, and the overall supply is expected to be abundant. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass has generally continued to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high in the same period [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,110 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1,150 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 40 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot [3]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash inventory in the plant is 1.588 million tons, an increase of 0.44% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [3][34]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing [3]. 3.2 Influence Factors Summary - **Positive factors**: There are few cold repairs of downstream float glass, and the output remains stable [4]. - **Negative factors**: The operating load of the second - phase production line of Yuangxing Energy has increased, and there is no expectation of new maintenance, so the output is expected to remain at a high level. The production of heavy - soda downstream photovoltaic glass has been reduced, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [6]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract closing price (yuan/ton) | 1,162 | 1,150 | - 1.03% | | Heavy - quality soda ash: Shahe low - end price (yuan/ton) | 1,110 | 1,110 | 0.00% | | Main basis (yuan/ton) | - 52 | - 40 | - 23.08% | [7] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,110 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous day [13]. 3.5 Soda Ash Production - **Production profit**: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 160.80 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process is - 97 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [16]. - **Operating rate and production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 83.25%. The weekly production of soda ash is 774,300 tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 414,000 tons, and the production is at a historical high [19][21]. - **Capacity changes**: In 2023, the total new capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 7.5 million tons, and the actual put - into - production capacity was 1 million tons [22]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and sales rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 97.06% [25]. - **Downstream demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 149,800 tons, and the operating rate is 71.86% [28]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash inventory in the plant is 1.588 million tons, an increase of 0.44% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].

Core Viewpoint - The current market for soda ash is relatively stable, with most producers continuing to operate at a loss, and the production costs remaining steady compared to current pricing levels, indicating a slightly undervalued market [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side of soda ash is expected to remain high due to significant production capacity coming online, while the demand side is currently weak and unlikely to change in the short term, leading to a persistently weak supply-demand balance [1] - By 2026, the price volatility of soda ash is anticipated to narrow, with factors influencing short-term market conditions focusing more on supply-side maintenance and the release of speculative demand [1] - The overall operating load of the industry should be monitored, as the supply side is likely to maintain high levels, and it will take a considerable amount of time for capacity to be cleared [1] Demand Side Concerns - The market conditions for float and photovoltaic glass remain weak, with some production lines undergoing maintenance, which may further suppress the demand for soda ash [1] - The dual pressure on both supply and demand for soda ash suggests that any potential policy-driven demand release may lead to temporary market fluctuations, but caution is advised regarding the extent and sustainability of such movements [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high production, declining downstream demand, and high inventory. The short - term trend is expected to be mainly oscillating downward [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1200 yuan/ton to 1181 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.58%. The heavy - quality soda ash price in Shahe remained unchanged at 1135 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from - 65 yuan/ton to - 46 yuan/ton, a decline of 29.23% [6]. 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1135 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. - The production profit of heavy - quality soda ash was at a historical low, with a profit of - 137.40 yuan/ton for the North China ammonia - soda process and - 88.50 yuan/ton for the East China co - production process [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 81.65% [17]. - The weekly output of soda ash was 71.19 tons, with heavy - quality soda ash at 38.56 tons, at a historical high [20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there was significant new capacity in the soda ash industry. In 2023, the new capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 750 tons, with 100 tons actually put into production [22]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 108.54% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.45 tons, and the operating rate was 73.89% [28]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash was 143.85 tons, a decrease of 4.06% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5 - year average [34]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provided the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]. 6. Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: Equipment problems led to enterprise production reduction and maintenance, and the recovery of soda ash supply was slow [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production of heavy - alkali downstream photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated upward, with the main contract SA2605 closing 2.04% higher than the previous week at 1,200 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,135 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous week. Supply is expected to remain abundant next week, with an estimated weekly output of 720,000 tons and an operating rate of 83% due to fewer maintenance enterprises. Downstream demand is tepid, mainly on a need - by - need basis, and some downstream inventories are high. The market sentiment is weak with insufficient drivers. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass decreased. As of December 25, the national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.4385 million tons, a 4.06% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is at a historically high level. Overall, the fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. [3] 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Catalog 3.1 Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract increased from 1,176 yuan/ton to 1,200 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.04%. The low - end price of heavy soda in Shahe increased from 1,125 yuan/ton to 1,135 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.89%. The main base difference increased by 27.45% from - 51 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton. [8] 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - **Price**: The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,135 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the previous week. [13] - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process was - 137.40 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process was - 88.50 yuan/ton, at a historical low. [16] - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 81.65%. The weekly output was 711,900 tons, including 385,600 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high. The weekly production heavy - alkalinity rate was 54.16%. [19][22][25] - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the total new capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons. [26] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - Output Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - output ratio of soda ash was 108.54%. [29] - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 154,500 tons, with an operating rate of 73.89%. [32] 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.4385 million tons, a 4.06% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5 - year average. [38] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E shows data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate. [39] 3.6 Influence Factor Summary - **Positive Factors**: Equipment problems led to production reduction and maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply was slow. [5] - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, with large production - launch plans this year, and the industry output is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. [6] 3.7 Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand has declined, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved. [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory at the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved. In the short term, the soda ash is expected to mainly fluctuate with a downward trend [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures increased from the previous value of 1170 yuan/ton to the present value of 1193 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.97%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe increased from 1135 yuan/ton to 1145 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.88%. The main basis changed from - 35 yuan/ton to - 48 yuan/ton, a rise of 37.14% [6] 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1145 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12] 3.3 Fundamentals - Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 147.60 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process is - 129 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15] - **开工率、产能产量**: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 84.35%. The weekly output of soda ash is 73.54 tons, including 39.78 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [18][21] - **Industry Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the total new capacity of soda ash was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity is 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [22] 3.4 Fundamentals - Demand - **产销率**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 106.02% [25] - **下游需求**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.72 tons, with an operating rate of 74.85% [28] 3.5 Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of soda ash in national factories is 149.93 tons, an increase of 0.33% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34] 3.6 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract SA601 slightly increased by 0.09%. The futures price is mainly supported by cost (stable prices of thermal coal and sea salt) and continuous cancellation of warehouse receipts, rather than an improvement in the supply - demand pattern. The main contract SA601 is actively traded, with a single - day trading volume of 23.458 billion yuan and an open interest of over 1 million lots, indicating strong market trading enthusiasm. The far - month contract SA605 is at a discount of about 70 yuan/ton compared to SA601, and the monthly spread structure remains negative, reflecting the continuous market expectation of supply surplus in 2026. As of November 20, the number of registered warehouse receipts for soda ash futures is 0, and the number of valid forecasts is 4,879. The delivery expectation has not been released intensively, and the market is still dominated by speculation and hedging [3]. - The current industry is still under the triple pressure of high inventory, low demand, and weak profits, with limited upward price space. The supply side is slightly favorable, with the operating rate falling from a high level and production decreasing slightly. In terms of inventory, the weekly destocking has accelerated, achieving destocking for three consecutive weeks, but the absolute level is still high. Although the inventory has been falling continuously, it is still at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years, and the inventory days remain above 20 days. The destocking pace maintains the characteristics of "high base and slow rhythm". The rigid demand from the glass and new energy sectors supports the stable rigid consumption of heavy soda ash. Downstream procurement sentiment is cautious, with most operations being "low inventory and fast turnover", and no concentrated stockpiling has occurred. Although the price of thermal coal on the cost side has increased slightly, the decline in soda ash prices is greater, and the overall profit margin of the industry is still in a contraction range. The price movement may continue in a "sideways - weak, bottom - oscillating" pattern. Attention should be paid to the cold - repair plan after December and the potential pull of macro - policies on the real estate chain [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - This week, the soda ash futures price oscillated weakly. The main contract SA601 closed at 1,170 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.09% during the week. However, the far - month contracts are continuously at a discount, and the market sentiment is constrained by the loose supply - demand pattern. On the spot side, the price of heavy soda ash shows regional differentiation, is under pressure, and tends to be weak. The inventory continues to decline, but the absolute level is still high. The industry profit is under pressure, and there has been no fundamental improvement in the overall fundamentals. In the short term, equipment maintenance and inventory decline provide some support, but the expectation of new production capacity release in the long term remains, and combined with the continuous downturn in the glass industry, the demand for heavy soda ash lacks elasticity, and the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged. The price movement may continue in a "sideways - weak, bottom - oscillating" pattern [2]. Supply - This week, the domestic soda ash production was 720,800 tons, a decrease of 18,500 tons from the previous week, a decline of 2.50%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 82.68%, compared with 84.80% last week, a decrease of 2.12% from the previous week. Recently, equipment problems in some enterprises have led to a decline in production [2]. Demand - This week, the daily melting volume of float glass was 158,100 tons, a decrease of 1,050 tons from the previous week, with one cold - repair and one hot - repair. The in - production volume of photovoltaic glass was 89,400 tons, remaining stable from the previous week. Next week, the float glass production will remain stable, and the photovoltaic glass plans to cold - repair 700 tons. The downstream demand is average, the sentiment for replenishing inventory at low prices has increased, the futures price has declined, and the trading volume has increased. Exports remain good, with exports exceeding 210,000 tons in October [2]. Inventory - As of November 20, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers this week was 1.6444 million tons, a decrease of 63,000 tons from the previous week (+0.06%), and the inventory at the same time last year was 1.6481 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3,700 tons, a decrease of 0.23%. The inventory of light soda ash was 757,100 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons from the previous week, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 887,300 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons from the previous week. There is a slight differentiation between light and heavy soda ash, with light soda ash being stronger and heavy soda ash being weaker [3]. Profit - In early November, the soda ash industry as a whole was still in a loss - making state, and the profit was under significant pressure. The net profits of many leading enterprises decreased significantly year - on - year, reflecting the severe overall profit environment in the industry. As of November 20, 2025, the theoretical profit of soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in China was - 38.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous week. The theoretical profit (per double - ton) of soda ash produced by the combined - soda process was - 153.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.50 yuan/ton from the previous week. During the week, the price of sea salt on the cost side increased slightly, and the price of thermal coal increased slightly, leading to an upward shift in cost support [3].