投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 TG国贸期货 ,数据 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 农产品研究中心 杨璐琳 | | | 2025年12月9日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | 2025年12月9日 | | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5386 | -0. 11% | 1. 09% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 5600 | | 0. 90% | 0. 90% | | (元/吨) | SP2512 | 4704 | 0. 47% | 0. 60% | (元/吨) | 针叶浆俄针 5250 | | 0.00% | 0. 00% | | | SP2605 | 5464 | 0.52% | 1. 83% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 4500 | | 0.00% | 0. 00% | | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | 本期价格 | | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | 外盘报价 | 智利银星 | 6 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to remain oscillating weakly in the short term. The imported pulp market is expected to continue to be differentiated. Coniferous pulp is under pressure due to high inventory and financial attribute disturbances, while broadleaf pulp is relatively resistant to decline supported by costs, but weak demand will limit its upside potential [102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - As of November 27, 2025, the inventory at Changshu Port was 572,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 tons or 3.1%. Qingdao Port's inventory was 1,429,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,000 tons or 2.3%. Gaolan Port's inventory was 60,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,000 tons or 17.6%. The total inventory of major Chinese pulp ports was 2,172,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons or 0.05%, showing a slight de - stocking trend [5][6]. - According to Longzhong Information on November 27, Chile's Arauco Company's November offer for broadleaf pulp Star was $550 per ton, and for natural pulp Venus was $620 per ton [6]. Market Data Market Trends - On November 28, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 202 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 50.49%. The basis of Russian Needle was - 28 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 33.33%. The price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 230 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.89% [15]. Monthly Spreads - On November 28, 2025, the 01 - 03 monthly spread was - 18 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 43.75%. The 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 23.08% [20]. Fundamental Data Price - The price difference between coniferous and broadleaf pulp decreased. On November 28, 2025, the price difference between Silver Star and Jinyu was 1,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.20%. The price difference between Russian Needle and Jinyu was 770 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.75% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.84% [27]. - The import profit of coniferous and broadleaf pulp decreased. On November 28, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp (Silver Star) was - 119.43 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 57.07% and a year - on - year increase of 47.47%. The import profit of broadleaf pulp (Star) was - 29.54 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 165.34% and a year - on - year increase of 69.93% [30]. - The spot price of imported coniferous pulp declined further. On November 28, 2025, the price of Silver Star was 5,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.32%. The price of broadleaf pulp was expected to increase slightly due to cost support [32][35]. Supply - The purchase price of wood chips by paper enterprises in East China was generally stable this week, with individual prices falling. The supply of domestic chemical mechanical pulp decreased, and the operating rate of domestic broadleaf pulp decreased [44][48]. - In September 2025, the pulp port inventory in Europe decreased month - on - month. In October, the global pulp shipping volume decreased seasonally month - on - month [52]. - In August 2025, the shipping volume of W20 coniferous pulp was at a low level with high inventory, while the shipping volume of broadleaf pulp remained high but with a low inventory days [56]. - In August 2025, the total coniferous pulp exports of Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States to China decreased month - on - month and were at a low level year - on - year. In September, Finland's exports to China increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. In October, Chile's coniferous pulp exports to China continued to increase month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [62]. - In September 2025, the total broadleaf pulp exports of Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile to China increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. In October, Brazil's exports decreased slightly month - on - month, and Uruguay's exports decreased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [66]. - In October 2025, China's pulp imports were differentiated. Coniferous pulp imports increased by 0.06% month - on - month, broadleaf pulp imports decreased by 2.77% month - on - month, and the imports of natural pulp and chemical mechanical pulp increased significantly [68]. Demand - The price of offset paper increased slightly this week. Due to profitability and production - sales pressure, some production lines were transferred or operated at reduced loads. The supply was abundant, and the demand was weak, with users mainly making rigid purchases [72]. - The price of coated paper decreased slightly this week. The supply was abundant, and the consumption was weak due to the impact of electronic media. Factories' willingness to support prices increased [76]. - The price of white cardboard remained stable. Although the cost decreased slightly, it was still at a high level. Paper mills planned to increase prices in December. The supply increased due to new capacity, and the sales were stable. Traders were mainly waiting and seeing [80]. - The price of household paper remained stable. The terminal demand was weak, and some paper enterprises faced shipment pressure. The de - stocking process slowed down, and the industry operating rate remained low [84]. - In October 2025, the retail sales of cultural and office supplies, cosmetics, and daily necessities increased significantly year - on - year [88]. Inventory - On November 28, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 209,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.38% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.92% [91]. - The overall port inventory was at a medium level within the year, showing a slight de - stocking trend. Qingdao Port's inventory decreased slightly, Changshu Port's inventory increased, and the inventory of other ports fluctuated within a normal range [97].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The pulp market is expected to fluctuate. Recent pulp warehouse receipts have seen cancellations and new registrations [6]. - On the supply side, Chile's Arauco Company's October offer for coniferous pulp Silver Star decreased by $20/ton to $680/ton, while the offer for hardwood pulp Star remained flat at $540/ton, and the offer for natural pulp Venus remained unchanged at $590/ton [6]. - On the demand side, recent pulp - using paper products have issued price - increase letters. Only the price increase of white cardboard has been well - implemented, and double - offset paper has issued new price - increase letters, with the implementation to be monitored [6]. - On the inventory side, as of November 27, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 217.2 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from the previous period, a 0.05% month - on - month decrease, showing a slight de - stocking trend [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 27, 2025, SP2601 was 5184 yuan/ton, down 0.46% day - on - day and 2.15% week - on - week; SP2512 was 4670 yuan/ton, down 0.98% day - on - day and 3.87% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5234 yuan/ton, down 0.49% day - on - day and 1.99% week - on - week [6]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.82% week - on - week; coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5170 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 3.36% week - on - week; hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4400 yuan/ton, unchanged both day - on - day and week - on - week [6]. - **Outer - Market Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was $680/ton, down 2.86% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was $530/ton, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was $590/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6]. - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star was 5721 yuan/ton, down 2.83% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344 yuan/ton, up 3.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 4830 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In October 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 tons, unchanged from September; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 131.8 tons, down from 135.6 tons in September. The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated slightly in different periods. The pulp port inventory on November 27, 2025, was 217.2 tons, down 0.1 tons from the previous period [6]. - **Demand**: The production of double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard also fluctuated in different periods. For example, the production of double - offset paper on November 27, 2025, was 20.80 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 217.2 tons, down 0.1 tons from the previous period, a 0.05% decrease. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 21.1 tons [6]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 27, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 500, with a quantile level of 0.952; the Silver Star basis was 730, with a quantile level of 0.926 [6]. - **Import Profit**: On November 27, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 159, with a quantile level of 0.378; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 56, with a quantile level of 0.705 [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The pulp market is expected to undergo high - level consolidation in the short term. The futures market is dominated by financial attributes, while the spot market remains firm due to cost support and limited available supply. It is recommended to monitor the inventory reduction pace and the change in the operating rate of downstream paper mills [98]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of November 13, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port increased by 6.3 tons week - on - week, a 12.5% rise; Qingdao Port's inventory rose by 5.0 tons, a 3.7% increase; and Gaolan Port's inventory decreased by 1.5 tons, a 26.8% decline. The total inventory of major Chinese pulp ports increased by 10.2 tons, a 5.1% rise [5][6]. - From January to September 2025, Finns Group reported a comparable operating loss of 27 million euros [6]. - Liaoning Yusen's 185,000 - ton second - phase project of household paper is expected to be put into production by the end of September next year [6]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On November 14, 2025, the basis of silver star pulp was 70 yuan/ton, down 33.96% week - on - week and 80.77% year - on - year; the basis of Russian needle pulp was - 80 yuan/ton, up 72.79% week - on - week and 6.98% year - on - year; the price difference between silver star and Russian needle pulp was 150 yuan/ton, down 62.50% week - on - week and 66.67% year - on - year [14]. - On November 14, 2025, the 01 - 03 month - spread was 32 yuan/ton, up 300.00% week - on - week; the 03 - 05 month - spread was - 14 yuan/ton, down 16.67% week - on - week [19]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - On November 14, 2025, the price difference between silver star and goldfish pulp was 1,150 yuan/ton, down 8.00% week - on - week and 34.29% year - on - year; the price difference between Russian needle and goldfish pulp was 1,000 yuan/ton, up 17.65% week - on - week and down 23.08% year - on - year [25]. - The import profit of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp continued to recover. In November, the import price of wood pulp was unclear, and paper mills were cautious [29]. - The price of imported coniferous pulp spot rose with the market, but paper mills were cautious in signing orders, and market transactions were mainly small orders [33]. - The price of imported broad - leaf pulp rose significantly, with an expected increase in import cost and a bullish market sentiment [36]. - The prices of Venus and Kunhe pulp on November 14, 2025, were 5,100 yuan/ton and 3,700 yuan/ton respectively, with no week - on - week change [41]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase price of paper enterprises in East China was generally stable this week, with individual increases [43]. - Domestic broad - leaf pulp prices rose this period, while the operating rate and output decreased; the operating rate and output of chemimechanical pulp increased [47]. - In September, the pulp port inventory in Europe decreased month - on - month, while the inventory days of coniferous pulp increased [51][52]. - In August, the shipment volume of W20 coniferous pulp was low, and the inventory was high; the shipment volume of broad - leaf pulp remained high, but the inventory days were low [56]. - In August, the export volume of coniferous pulp from Canada, Chile, and Finland to China decreased month - on - month; in September, Finland's export volume to China increased both month - on - month and year - on - year; in October, Chile's export volume to China increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [62]. - In September, the export volume of broad - leaf pulp from Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile increased both month - on - month and year - on - year; in October, Brazil's export volume decreased slightly month - on - month [63]. - In September, China's pulp import volume increased overall, with coniferous pulp up 12.52% month - on - month, broad - leaf pulp up 7.81% month - on - month, and chemimechanical pulp up 31.43% month - on - month [67]. 3.3.3 Demand - The average price of offset paper was basically stable, with poor profitability. Downstream consumption was scattered, but some users stocked up due to cost support [71]. - The average price of coated paper was stable, with a slight decrease in supply. The supply - demand relationship did not improve significantly [75]. - The price of white cardboard continued to rise. Although the production and sales situation changed little, the shipment increased in some local markets [79]. - The price of household paper was stable, with weak terminal demand and limited support from pulp prices [83]. - In October, the retail sales of cultural office supplies, cosmetics, and daily necessities increased significantly year - on - year [87]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of November 14, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 220,400 tons, down 1.66% week - on - week and 39.26% year - on - year [90]. - The port inventory was at a medium level this year, showing a slight accumulation trend. Qingdao Port's inventory shifted to an accumulation trend, and Changshu Port's inventory showed a narrow - range accumulation trend [95].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to remain under pressure in the short term. With abundant supply and inventory accumulation during the holiday, pulp prices are likely to stay weak. Affected by the overall macro - market atmosphere and its own weak fundamentals, the market is unlikely to improve in the short term [92]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of October 9, 2025, the pulp inventory in Changshu Port reached 482,000 tons, up 30,000 tons (6.6% MoM); in Qingdao Port, it was 1,395,000 tons, down 30,000 tons (2.1% MoM); in Gaolan Port, it was 54,000 tons, up 13,000 tons (31.7% MoM). The total inventory of mainstream ports was 2,077,000 tons, up 44,000 tons (2.2% MoM) [5][6]. - Jilin Chenming Paper resumed production on September 28, 2025, after 11 months of shutdown. It is expected to achieve an output value of 160 million yuan by the end of 2025 and over 1 billion yuan in 2026 [6]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On October 10, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 732 yuan/ton, up 15.46% MoM and 64.86% YoY; the basis of Russian Needle was 262 yuan/ton, up 42.39% MoM and 495.45% YoY; the Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 470 yuan/ton, up 4.44% MoM and 17.50% YoY [13]. - The 11 - 01 month - spread was - 290 yuan/ton, down 13.28% MoM; the 01 - 05 month - spread was - 58 yuan/ton, down 141.67% MoM [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The needle - broadleaf spread converged. On October 10, 2025, the spread of Silver Star - Goldfish was 1,270 yuan/ton, down 11.19% MoM and 12.41% YoY; the spread of Russian Needle - Goldfish was 800 yuan/ton, down 18.37% MoM and 23.81% YoY [23]. - The import profit of both softwood and hardwood pulp decreased. On October 10, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp (Silver Star) was - 179 yuan/ton, down 209.51% MoM and 3921.24% YoY; the import profit of hardwood pulp (Star) was - 165.35 yuan/ton, up 370% MoM and down 360.36% YoY [26]. - The price of softwood pulp in the Shandong market decreased compared with before the holiday. On October 10, 2025, the price of Silver Star was 5,520 yuan/ton, down 2.30% MoM and 10.97% YoY [28]. - The price of hardwood pulp slightly increased due to the external price support. On October 10, 2025, the price of Goldfish was 4,250 yuan/ton, up 0.71% MoM and down 10.53% YoY [32]. - The price of natural and chemimechanical pulp: On October 10, 2025, the price of Venus was 4,850 yuan/ton, down 1.02% MoM and 10.19% YoY; the price of Kunhe was 3,700 yuan/ton, unchanged MoM and up 2.78% YoY [35]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase price of some paper enterprises in East China increased. On October 10, 2025, the purchase price of eucalyptus wood chips by Liansheng Pulp and Paper was 1,160 yuan/ton, up 3.57% MoM [39]. - The price of domestic hardwood pulp increased. On October 10, 2025, the daily average price of chemimechanical pulp in China was 3,825 yuan/ton, unchanged MoM and up 2.00% YoY; the daily ex - factory price of Asia - Pacific Senbo hardwood pulp was 4,400 yuan/ton, up 3.53% MoM and down 12.87% YoY [43]. - In August 2025, the European port inventory increased MoM, and the global pulp out - port volume increased seasonally MoM but was lower YoY [46]. - In August 2025, the W20 softwood pulp shipment was low, and the inventory was high; the hardwood pulp shipment remained high, but the inventory days were low [48]. - In July 2025, the export volume of softwood pulp from four countries (Canada, Finland, Chile, and the US) to China increased significantly MoM, and the performance was neutral YoY. In August, the export volume of Canadian softwood pulp to China continued to grow. In September, the export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China increased MoM [53]. - In August 2025, the export volume of hardwood pulp from four countries (Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile) to China decreased MoM but was at a high level YoY. In September, the export volume of Brazilian hardwood pulp to China increased significantly MoM, the export volume of Uruguayan hardwood pulp to China increased MoM, and the export volume of Chilean hardwood pulp to China continued to decline MoM [54]. - In August 2025, China's pulp import volume decreased overall. The import volume of softwood pulp decreased by 5.01% MoM, hardwood pulp by 6.92% MoM, and chemimechanical pulp by 27.41% MoM [58]. 3.3.3 Demand - The average price of offset paper was weakly consolidated. The supply was abundant, but the demand was weak, and the support for the pulp market was insufficient [62]. - The average price of coated paper fluctuated downward. Affected by the macro - environment and electronic media, the demand was weak, and the support for the pulp market was limited [66]. - The price of white cardboard slightly increased. The market supply was stable, and the market transaction gradually returned to normal [70]. - The market of tissue paper was sorted within the range, with stable prices and limited support from the raw pulp market [74]. - In August 2025, the retail sales in the pulp terminal demand area rebounded slightly seasonally MoM, and the year - on - year growth of cultural office supplies, daily necessities, and books and magazines was significant [78]. 3.3.4 Inventory - The futures inventory: On October 10, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in warehouses was 225,300 tons, down 0.36% MoM and 40.33% YoY; in factories, it was 6,400 tons, down 30.30% MoM and 76.63% YoY [81]. - The spot inventory: The sample inventory of domestic mainstream ports increased. During the holiday, the arrival volume was normal, but the shipment volume slowed down, leading to inventory accumulation [87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term. Supply - side pressure is difficult to ease quickly, with increasing imports and slow inventory reduction at ports. The demand side has certain rigid support but lacks obvious growth momentum [102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of September 25, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 452,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56,000 tons (11.0%); at Qingdao Port, it was 1.425 million tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons (0.5%); at Gaolan Port, it was 41,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons (16.3%). The total inventory of mainstream ports was 2.033 million tons, a decrease of 79,000 tons (3.7%) [5][6]. - In August 2025, the import volume of bleached softwood pulp was 614,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.1%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 5.74 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The import volume of bleached hardwood pulp was 1.258 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 11.152 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.7% [6][7]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On September 26, 2025, the basis for Silver Star was 634 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.32% and a year - on - year increase of 89.82%; the basis for Russian Needle was 184 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.10% and a year - on - year increase of 258.62%; the Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 450 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week or year - on - year change [16]. - The 11 - 01 month spread was - 256 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14.09%; the 01 - 05 month spread was - 24 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 33.33% [21]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The spread between softwood and hardwood pulp was stable. On September 26, 2025, the spread between Silver Star and Goldfish was 1,430 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 3.62%; the spread between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 980 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 5.38% [28]. - The import profit of softwood and hardwood pulp decreased. On September 26, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp (Silver Star) was - 58 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.38% and a year - on - year decrease of 394.60%; the import profit of hardwood pulp (Star) was - 171.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.86% and a year - on - year decrease of 294.01% [31]. - The prices of different types of pulp showed different trends. On September 26, 2025, the prices of softwood pulp such as Silver Star, Kalip, and Northwood were 5,650 yuan/ton, 5,800 yuan/ton, and 6,050 yuan/ton respectively, with no week - on - week change; the prices of hardwood pulp such as Goldfish, Star, and Bird were 4,220 yuan/ton, 4,250 yuan/ton, and 4,200 yuan/ton respectively, with no week - on - week change [34][38]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase price in East China was generally stable, with a slight decrease in the purchase price of poplar chips by Champion Paper [43]. - The price of domestic chemimechanical pulp decreased slightly this week, the price of hardwood pulp was stable, and the supply increased. On September 25, 2025, the daily average price of domestic chemimechanical pulp was 3,825 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%; the weekly output of domestic hardwood pulp was 131,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.34% [47][49]. - In July 2025, the European port inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, and the global pulp out - port volume increased seasonally month - on - month but was relatively low year - on - year [52]. - The W20 softwood pulp shipment volume was at a low level with high inventory, while the hardwood pulp shipment volume remained high, but the inventory days continued to decline [54]. - In July 2025, the export volume of softwood pulp from Canada, Finland, Chile, and the United States to China increased significantly month - on - month, and in August, the export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China decreased month - on - month [58]. - In July 2025, the export volume of hardwood pulp from Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile increased month - on - month, and in August, the export volume of Brazilian hardwood pulp to China decreased seasonally month - on - month, while the export volume of Uruguayan hardwood pulp to China increased significantly [62]. - In August 2025, China's total pulp import volume decreased, with softwood pulp down 5.01% month - on - month, hardwood pulp down 6.92% month - on - month, and chemimechanical pulp down 27.41% month - on - month [66]. 3.3.3 Demand - The price of offset paper was weakly sorted this week. The supply was sufficient, but the downstream demand was weak, and the market was in a stalemate [70]. - The average price of coated paper was slightly adjusted. The supply increased, but the consumption was still sluggish due to the macro - environment and electronic media impact [74]. - The supply and demand of white cardboard both showed an upward trend. The large manufacturers planned to increase the order - taking price by 100 yuan/ton in October, and the market low - price increased [78]. - The market of tissue paper was flat, the terminal demand was weak, and the industry's overall operating rate remained low [82]. - In August 2025, the retail sales in the pulp terminal demand area recovered slightly seasonally month - on - month, and the year - on - year growth of cultural office supplies, daily necessities, and books and magazines was significant [86]. 3.3.4 Inventory - On September 26, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp (warehouse) was 226,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.18%; the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp (factory) was 9,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 49.34% and a year - on - year decrease of 66.47% [89]. - The port inventory was at a medium - low level within the year, and the inventory of domestic mainstream ports showed a destocking trend this period [98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short - term. High port inventories, slow de - stocking, and weak demand prevent significant price increases, while firm foreign offers, cost support, and potential pre - National Day restocking limit the downside [99][100] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of September 18, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 508,000 tons, up 44,000 tons (9.5% YoY); at Qingdao Port, it was 1,432,000 tons, up 14,000 tons (1.0% YoY); at Gaolan Port, it was 49,000 tons, down 9,000 tons (15.5% YoY). The total inventory of major ports was 2,112,000 tons, up 50,000 tons (2.4% YoY) [5][6] - Chile's Arauco company's September coniferous pulp Silver Star quoted price remained at $700/ton, broadleaf pulp Star increased to $540/ton, and natural pulp Venus remained at $590/ton [6] - Chenming Group's Shouguang Base No. 8 plant with an annual output of 800,000 tons of high - grade coated paper started operation. Sichuan Xianhe New Materials plans to add 200,000 tons/year of household paper production capacity [7] 3.2 Market Data - **Basis and Spread**: On September 19, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 632 yuan/ton, down 4.24% MoM; the basis of Russian Needle was 182 yuan/ton, up 1.11% MoM; the Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 450 yuan/ton, down 6.25% MoM [18] - **Monthly Spread**: On September 19, 2025, the 11 - 01 monthly spread was - 298 yuan/ton, down 3.47% MoM; the 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 18 yuan/ton, down 80.00% MoM [24] 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: The needle - broadleaf spread narrowed. The import profit of coniferous and broadleaf pulp decreased. The price of pulp futures first rose and then fell. The price of broadleaf pulp showed a narrow - range upward trend [28][34] - **Supply**: The wood chip purchase price in East China was generally stable, with some increases. The supply of domestic chemical mechanical pulp and broadleaf pulp decreased. In July, the European port inventory decreased slightly, and the global pulp out - bound volume increased seasonally. In July, the export of coniferous and broadleaf pulp from Canada, Finland, Chile, the US, Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, etc. changed [45][54][60] - **Demand**: The demand for downstream base paper was weak. The white cardboard market was relatively better, the offset paper market was bearish, and the household paper market was weak. In August, the retail sales of terminal demand areas for pulp increased seasonally [99][84] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of major ports was at a medium level this year, showing a narrow - range accumulation trend. The warehouse receipt quantity decreased slightly [96][87]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp futures have reached an absolute low, but there is no upward driving force at present. It is recommended to wait and see. The supply is relatively strong, the demand is neutral, the inventory is bearish, and the valuation is relatively strong [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Suzano announced price increases in September 2025, with a $20/ton increase in Asia and an $80/ton increase in Europe and the United States. The foreign market quotes have risen for two consecutive periods, strongly supporting domestic pulp prices. The pulp supply in the fourth quarter is expected to decline as the shipment volume from three South American countries to China decreased in August [3]. - **Demand**: The monthly output of major finished paper has increased, but the prices of mainstream finished paper are running at a low level. Some white cardboard and offset paper mills have issued price increase letters, but the implementation remains to be confirmed [3]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 2.062 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 0.2%. The inventory is at a high level with a narrow - range de - stocking trend [3]. - **Valuation**: The basis of broadleaf pulp has strengthened to over - 1000 yuan, and pulp futures have entered a low - valuation range [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Pulp futures have reached an absolute low, but there is no upward driving force. It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the de - stocking of pulp warehouse receipts [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: Last week, pulp futures fluctuated at a low level. After hitting a low, they rebounded slightly, but the high inventory indicates that the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. Next week, focus on whether the warehouse receipts decrease after the delivery of the 09 contract is completed [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price of broadleaf pulp is stable, while the price of silver star has decreased. The price of coniferous pulp silver star is 5620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 80 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The price of coniferous pulp cloth needle is 4950 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 130 yuan/ton. The price of broadleaf pulp goldfish is 4150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week and month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [16]. - **Foreign Market Quotes**: In August, Arauco notified that the price of coniferous pulp silver star was $720/ton, the price of broadleaf pulp star was $520/ton with a 50% reduction in supply, and the price of natural pulp Venus was $590/ton. Suzano announced price increases in September 2025 [20]. - **Total Futures Positions**: As of September 12, 2025, the total positions of pulp futures contracts were 365,839 lots, a 6.11% increase from last week. The positions of the main pulp futures contract were 187,747 lots, a 2.35% increase from last week [21]. 3.3 Pulp Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In July, the import volume of pulp decreased. The total pulp import volume was 2.877 million tons, a 5.08% decrease from the previous period. The import volume of coniferous pulp was 646,000 tons, a 4.72% decrease, and the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 1.351 million tons, a 5.85% decrease. The import volume of broadleaf wood chips was 1.341 million tons, a 3.79% increase [4]. - **Inventory**: The pulp port and warehouse receipt quantities have decreased. As of September 11, 2025, the port pulp inventory was 2.062 million tons, a 0.19% decrease from the previous period, and the delivery warehouse inventory was 245,000 tons, a 0.73% decrease [4]. - **Overseas Inventory**: The inventory of overseas pulp mills has changed. The inventory days of world 20 - country commodity pulp suppliers at the end of July were 47 days. The inventory days of bleached softwood pulp were 50 days, and the inventory days of bleached hardwood pulp were 45 days. In July 2025, the European port pulp inventory at the end of the month was 1.5275 million tons, a 1.9% month - on - month decrease [50]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Price**: As of September 12, 2025, the price of offset paper was 4818 yuan/ton, a 2.65% month - on - month decrease; the price of coated paper was 5000 yuan/ton, a 2.9% month - on - month decrease; the price of tissue paper was 5583 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the price of white cardboard was 3964 yuan/ton, a 0.35% month - on - month increase [55]. - **Output**: In August 2025, the output of offset paper was 724,000 tons, a 1.7% month - on - month decrease and a 9.4% year - on - year decrease; the output of coated paper was 375,000 tons, a 1.7% month - on - month decrease and a 2.2% year - on - year increase; the output of tissue paper was 840,000 tons, a 6.8% month - on - month increase and a 13.5% year - on - year increase; the output of white cardboard was 958,000 tons, a 4.5% month - on - month decrease and a 5.4% year - on - year decrease [62]. - **Inventory**: As of August 2025, the inventory of offset paper was 1.76 million tons, a 1.8% month - on - month increase and a 6.8% year - on - year increase; the inventory of coated paper was 1.182 million tons, a 0.34% month - on - month increase and a 1.5% year - on - year decrease; the inventory of tissue paper was 355,000 tons, an 8.9% month - on - month decrease and an 8.23% year - on - year increase; the inventory of white cardboard was 2.2899 million tons, a 0.5% month - on - month increase and a 5% year - on - year decrease [69]. - **European and American Demand**: In July 2025, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of European coniferous pulp decreased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio of broadleaf pulp decreased. The inventory - to - consumption ratio of European coniferous pulp was 27.2 days, a 1.3 - day month - on - month decrease and a 2.1 - day year - on - year increase; the inventory - to - consumption ratio of broadleaf pulp was 24.1 days, a 2.5 - day month - on - month decrease and a 2.8 - day year - on - year increase. As of July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of US paper products was 82.92%, a 0.30% month - on - month decrease. In June 2025, the inventory - sales ratio of US paper products was 1.06, a 0.01 month - on - month increase and a 0.05 year - on - year increase [96]. 3.4 Pulp Futures Valuation - **Spread**: The basis of broadleaf Russian needle has strengthened, and the 11 - 1 inter - month spread has widened. As of September 12, 2025, the basis of Shandong Russian needle was - 40 yuan/ton, a 52 - yuan/ton increase from last week; the basis of Shandong silver star was 630 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan/ton decrease from last week. The 11 - 1 month spread was - 288 yuan/ton, a 22 - yuan/ton decrease from last week [102]. - **Import Profit**: As of September 12, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp was - 178 yuan/ton, a 66 - yuan/ton decrease from last week; the import profit of broadleaf pulp was - 43 yuan/ton, a 17 - yuan/ton decrease from last week [106]. - **Needle - Broadleaf Spread**: As of September 12, 2025, the needle - broadleaf spread in Shandong, China, was 1437 yuan/ton, a 55 - yuan/ton decrease from last week. In July 2024, the needle - broadleaf import ratio in China was 0.48, a 0.01 increase from the previous month [108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti - arbitrage in the pulp market has reached a phased position, and attention should be paid to seasonal stabilization. After the old warehouse receipts are delivered on September 15th, the market may experience a corrective rebound. However, the rebound space is limited due to weak downstream demand and high port inventories [96][97]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industry News - As of September 11, 2025, the pulp inventory in Changshu Port was 464,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% decline; the inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.418 million tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week, a 0.2% increase; the inventory in Gaolan Port was 58,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week, a 7.9% decline. The total inventory of mainstream port samples in China was 2.062 million tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous period, a 0.2% decline [6][7]. - On September 3, 2025, the No. 1 line of the second - phase chemi - thermomechanical pulp project of Liansheng Pulp and Paper (Zhangzhou) Co., Ltd. was successfully put into operation [7]. - On September 8, 2025, the household paper production line of the seventh factory in the Shouguang base of Chenming Paper started operation, and the base will fully resume full - load production capacity [8]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On September 12, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 660 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.30% and a year - on - year increase of 77.42%; the basis of Russian Needle was 180 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 30.43% and a year - on - year increase of 410.34%; the price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 480 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 7.69% and a year - on - year increase of 11.63% [15]. - On September 12, 2025, the 11 - 01 month - spread was - 288 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.27%; the 01 - 05 month - spread was - 10 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 66.67% [15][20]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 1,470 yuan/ton on September 12, 2025, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.29% and a year - on - year increase of 19.51%; the price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 990 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.00% and a year - on - year increase of 23.75% [27]. - On September 12, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp (Silver Star) was - 208 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 46.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.98%; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp (Star) was - 3 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 46.22% and a year - on - year increase of 99.50% [30]. - On September 12, 2025, the prices of imported coniferous pulp such as Silver Star, Kalip, and Northwood in the Shandong market were 5,650 yuan/ton, 5,800 yuan/ton, and 6,050 yuan/ton respectively, with varying degrees of month - on - month and year - on - year changes [32]. - On September 12, 2025, the prices of imported broad - leaf pulp such as Goldfish, Star, and Bird in the Shandong market were 4,180 yuan/ton, 4,250 yuan/ton, and 4,170 yuan/ton respectively, with varying degrees of month - on - month and year - on - year changes [37]. - On September 12, 2025, the prices of imported natural pulp and chemi - thermomechanical pulp such as Venus and Kunhe in the Shandong market were 4,900 yuan/ton and 3,700 yuan/ton respectively, with varying degrees of year - on - year changes [40]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase prices of paper enterprises in East China were generally stable, and the purchase price of poplar wood chips of Champion Paper continued to decline [42]. - The supply of domestic broad - leaf pulp increased this week. On September 11, 2025, the weekly production of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 133,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 19.82% [46][48]. - In July 2025, the port inventory in Europe decreased slightly month - on - month; in June, the global pulp outbound volume increased seasonally month - on - month but was lower year - on - year [51]. - In June 2025, the export volume of coniferous pulp from Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States to China increased month - on - month but was still at a low level year - on - year; in July, the export volume of coniferous pulp from Canada, Chile, and the United States to China increased significantly month - on - month; in August, the export volume of coniferous pulp from Chile to China decreased month - on - month [55]. - In July 2025, the export volume of broad - leaf pulp from Brazil, Indonesia, and Uruguay to China continued to be at a year - on - year high and increased month - on - month; in August, the export volume of broad - leaf pulp from Brazil to China decreased seasonally month - on - month, while the export volume of Uruguay to China increased significantly month - on - month [57]. - In July 2025, China's pulp import volume decreased overall, with coniferous pulp decreasing by 4.64% month - on - month and broad - leaf pulp decreasing by 5.84% month - on - month [61]. 3.3.3 Demand - For offset paper, the average price of enterprises was stable, production increased slightly, supply was abundant, downstream demand was weak, and the market was bearish [65]. - For coated paper, the average price of enterprises was stable, production changed little, supply was abundant, consumption was difficult to improve, and the market was in a wait - and - see state [69]. - For white cardboard, both supply and demand increased, paper mills' production and sales were relatively balanced, prices increased, and the market improved [73]. - For household paper, the market price was flat, demand was weak, the overall trading atmosphere improved little, and the industry's operating rate remained low [77]. - In July 2025, the retail sales in the terminal demand areas of pulp weakened seasonally month - on - month. The year - on - year growth of cultural office and daily necessities was significant, while the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines and the output of dairy products decreased year - on - year [81]. 3.3.4 Inventory - On September 12, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 245,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 49.53% [84]. - The port inventory was at a medium level within the year, showing a narrow de - stocking trend. Qingdao Port's inventory increased slightly, and Changshu Port's inventory decreased [93]. 3.4 This Week's Viewpoint Summary - Supply: In August 2025, the pulp import volume decreased for the second consecutive month, with a month - on - month decrease of 7.8% to 2.653 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. The cumulative import volume from January to August was 24.108 million tons, still a 5.0% year - on - year increase. The supply remained abundant. The shipment volume from Brazil to China in August was 647,300 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 21.5% but a year - on - year increase of 55.3%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 20.3%. The foreign market quotation was firm, and the cost - side support was strengthened [96]. - Demand: The performance of downstream demand in the peak season was disappointing, lacking traditional peak - season characteristics. In general, the terminal consumption capacity of the paper industry did not improve, and the demand side had a "buy - on - dips" mentality, providing limited support to the pulp market [96]. - Viewpoint: After the old warehouse receipts are delivered on September 15th, the market may experience a corrective rebound. However, the rebound space is limited due to weak downstream demand and high port inventories [97]. - Strategy: Unilateral: Try to go long on contracts 01 and 05 on dips; Inter - period: Consider converting the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage to a positive arbitrage; Inter - variety: No strategy [98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term pulp market may continue the low - level oscillation pattern. Spot prices are suppressed by high inventory and have limited room for rebound. Later, attention should be paid to port inventory, seasonal demand during the "Golden September and Silver October", terminal demand orders, and the capital trend in the market under the support of rising broadleaf prices. Although Suzano's price increase and marginal improvement in demand inject rebound momentum, high inventory and delivery risks still restrict the upside space. The valuation of the futures market is neutral and slightly low. The recommended strategies are to try long positions on far - month contracts on dips [88]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - Shandong Sun Paper plans to invest up to 1.53 billion yuan in a 700,000 - ton high - grade packaging paper project at its Yandian plant in Shandong, with a construction period of 18 months. It also announced a 600,000 - ton bleached chemical pulp project with a total investment of up to 3.51 billion yuan [5]. - As of August 28, 2025, the inventory of pulp in major Chinese ports showed a downward trend. The inventory in Changshu Port was 515,000 tons, down 15,000 tons (2.8% MoM); in Qingdao Port, it was 1.39 million tons, down 10,000 tons (0.7% MoM); in Gaolan Port, it was 52,000 tons, down 10,000 tons (16.1% MoM). The total inventory of major ports was 2.084 million tons, down 48,000 tons (2.3% MoM) [5]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On August 29, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 682 yuan/ton, down 1.45% MoM and up 251.55% YoY; the Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 82 yuan/ton, up 95.24% MoM and 139.81% YoY [12]. - The 11 - 01 month spread was - 326 yuan/ton, down 27.34% MoM; the 01 - 05 month spread was - 20 yuan/ton, down 200% MoM [17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The prices of imported coniferous pulp in the spot market declined slightly. The prices of Silver Star, Cariboo, Northern Wood, Lion Brand, and Russian Needle all decreased compared to the previous period. The prices of imported broadleaf pulp showed a mixed trend, with some regions showing a slight increase due to cost pressure, while others were weak due to limited acceptance from downstream paper mills [29][34]. - The import profits of coniferous and broadleaf pulp decreased. The import profit of Silver Star was - 159 yuan/ton on August 29, 2025, down 92.32% MoM and 1082.86% YoY [27]. 3.3.2 Supply - The supply of domestic chemimechanical pulp increased this week. The weekly output of domestic chemimechanical pulp was 872,000 tons on August 28, 2025, up 3.81% MoM [44]. - In June 2025, the inventory in European ports increased YoY and MoM, and the global pulp outbound volume increased seasonally MoM but was lower YoY. In May, the W20 pulp inventory increased significantly [48][52]. - In June, the export volume of coniferous pulp from Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States to China increased MoM but was still at a low level YoY. In July, the export volume of Chilean coniferous pulp to China increased significantly. In June, the export volume of broadleaf pulp from Brazil and Indonesia to China decreased slightly MoM but was at a high level YoY. In July, the export volume of Brazilian broadleaf pulp to China remained at a high level YoY, while that of Uruguay decreased significantly MoM [55][57]. - In July 2025, the total import volume of Chinese pulp decreased. The import volume of coniferous pulp decreased by 4.64% MoM, and that of broadleaf pulp decreased by 5.84% MoM [61]. 3.3.3 Demand - The domestic offset paper market was in a supply - demand game, with light trading. The production of large - scale factories was basically stable, but the industry's profitability was poor, and there were situations of paper machine conversion and shutdown for maintenance. The downstream consumption was flat, and the purchasing was mainly for replenishment [64]. - The copperplate paper market was sluggish. Factories maintained stable production, but demand continued to decline due to various factors. The consumption of base paper by downstream users was slow, and the market was in a stalemate [67]. - The white cardboard market was stable. Both supply and demand increased, and large - scale manufacturers achieved a balance between production and sales. Some paper mills planned to raise prices in September [70]. - The living paper market was in a flat consolidation. The terminal demand did not improve significantly, and the industry's operating rate remained at a low level. The price of raw pulp had limited support for the price of living paper [73]. - In July, the retail sales in the pulp terminal demand areas weakened seasonally MoM. The retail sales of cultural office supplies and daily necessities increased significantly YoY, while the retail sales of books and magazines and the production of dairy products decreased YoY [76]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of August 29, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 247,400 tons, with 229,200 tons in warehouses and 18,200 tons in factories, down 1.79% and 0% MoM respectively, and down 48.45% and 38.46% YoY respectively [78]. - The total inventory of the five major ports (Qingdao, Changshu, Gaolan, Tianjin, and Rizhao) was 2.084 million tons on August 29, 2025, down 2.25% MoM and up 12.71% YoY [85].