路透社10月7日消息，世界银行上调了对中东、北非、阿富汗和巴基斯坦地区2025年经济增长预期，但 因冲突和石油减产，下调了2026年的预测。世行预计该地区2025年GDP平均增长2.8%，高于此前的 2.6%。海湾国家因加快退出减产措施及非石油部门扩张而受益，石油进口国也因消费、投资、农业和 旅游回暖而前景改善。 （原标题：世行上调对中东、北非、阿富汗和巴基斯坦地区的2025年经济增长预期） ...

（原标题：经合组织维持韩今年经济增长预期） 另外，经合组织将韩国明年经济增长预期维持在2.2%不变，将今年的物价涨幅预期从2.1%上调为 2.2%，并预测明年物价涨幅为1.9%。 经合组织曾在今年3月和6月两次下调韩国经济增长预期至1%，但此次未作调整。经合组织的此次 预期高于韩国政府和韩国银行（央行）的预期值（分别为0.9%），以及韩国开发研究院和国际货币基 金组织的预期值（分别为0.8%）。经合组织认为韩国经济近期出现的恢复势头将持续。 韩国《韩联社》9月23日报道，韩国企划财政部23日表示，经合组织当天发布中期经济展望报告， 将韩国2025年国内生产总值增长预期维持在1%，未作调整。 ...

据亚洲开发银行最新发布的《亚洲发展展望》报告，下调蒙古2025年和2026年经济增长预期。报告将蒙 经济增长预测从此前的5.7%下调0.9—0.2个百分点。报告指出，蒙牲畜存栏量增加以及奥尤陶勒盖地下 采矿项目将推动中期经济增长，但煤炭出口减少和政府预算支出缩减将成为拖累因素。 ...

Group 1: Impact of U.S. Government Shutdown - The U.S. government shutdown, which began on October 1, is the first full shutdown since 2013, with no immediate signs of reopening [1][2] - The economic impact of the shutdown will depend on its duration; a short shutdown may only delay income, while a prolonged one could alter economic activity and market expectations [2][3] - The White House predicts a weekly loss of $15 billion due to the shutdown, although this figure is considered exaggerated; the last shutdown in 2018 resulted in a GDP loss of $11 billion over five weeks [3] Group 2: Political Dynamics and Government Restructuring - The shutdown provides an opportunity for the White House to restructure government agencies and shift blame onto the Democratic Party [2] - The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is expected to implement significant cuts, including reducing the federal workforce and pressuring Democratic-controlled states [2][3] - The ongoing political struggle between Republicans and Democrats is highlighted, with potential compromises on funding and tax credits being discussed [3] Group 3: Economic Performance of Spain - Spain's economy is growing at approximately 3%, outperforming other Eurozone countries, and has recently received an upgraded credit rating from S&P [4] - The service sector, particularly tourism and IT, has become a key driver of Spain's economic success, aided by EU funds for infrastructure development [4] - Spain's labor reforms have increased flexibility in employment contracts, leading to higher productivity and more full-time job opportunities [4] Group 4: Immigration Policy and Economic Growth in Spain - Spain's immigration policy has attracted a significant number of Spanish-speaking immigrants, contributing to economic growth and addressing labor shortages [5] - The influx of 600,000 new immigrants annually has expanded the tax base and improved government finances, although political stability remains a concern [5] - Spain faces challenges such as high unemployment rates and regulatory burdens that could hinder long-term growth [5] Group 5: Market Focus and Economic Indicators - Upcoming focus includes the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting minutes, OPEC+ production decisions, and U.S. consumer confidence indicators [6] - The impact of the government shutdown on U.S. statistical data is noted, with implications for economic analysis and forecasting [6]

亚行专家认为，得益于工业和建筑业的强劲增长（增幅达8.3%，高于2024年同期的7.5%），以及 外商直接投资（FDI）的持续稳定流入（实际到位资金154亿美元，创5年来同期新高），2025年上半年 越南经济取得增长7.5%的积极成果。然而美国对越南商品征收20%的关税以及对过境商品征收40%关 税，短期内仍可能影响越南的经济增长。 越南《越南经济》9月30日报道，亚洲开发银行（ADB）当日发布《2025年9月亚洲发展展望报 告》，将越南2025年经济增长预期上调至6.7%，较4月份预测上调0.1个百分点，并将2026年经济增长预 期下调至6.0%（4月份为6.5%）。 （原标题：亚行将2025年越南经济增长预期上调至6.7%） ...

亚行驻柬埔寨机构负责人表示，2025年上半年，柬埔寨经济展现出韧性。低于预期的食品价格涨幅和燃 料成本下降有助于缓解通胀，同时工业活动保持强劲。展望未来，建筑业和旅游业有望继续复苏，农业 也将稳步增长，这些因素预示着柬埔寨经济将实现更加均衡和可持续的增长。 亚行下调柬埔寨今年经济增长预期 中新社金边9月30日电 (记者 杨强)受柬泰边境紧张局势以及对美国出口不确定性因素影响，亚洲开发银 行将柬埔寨2025年经济增长预期从6.1%下调至4.9%，2026年经济增长预期则从6.2%下调至5.0%。 亚行当地时间9月30日发布的信息指出，预计到2026年，柬埔寨经济将保持稳健增长，这得益于工业活 动持续走强和外国直接投资的稳定流入。 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 亚行最新一期《亚洲发展展望》报告显示，今年上半年柬埔寨通胀率大幅下降，从1月份的6.0%降至6 月份的1.6%。预计2025年和2026年通胀率平均为2.0%。工业继续成为柬埔寨经济增长的主要引擎，预 计2025年柬埔寨工业经济增长7.9%，2026年回升至8.3%。 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 亚行报告还预测柬埔寨服务业增速在2025年将放缓 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Israeli central bank has decided to maintain the interest rate at 4.5% due to high political uncertainty, particularly in light of the ongoing conflict with Hamas and growing international isolation concerns [1] Economic Growth Projections - The central bank warns that economic growth will slow this year due to the intensifying conflict in Gaza and deteriorating international sentiment towards Israel [1] - The bank has revised its economic growth forecast for 2025 down to 2.5%, from a previous estimate of 3.3% made in July [1] - However, the growth forecast for 2026 has been slightly increased from 4.6% to 4.7%, contingent on the continuation of the Gaza conflict at varying intensities, with an expectation for it to conclude by the first quarter of 2026 [1]

新华财经圣保罗9月26日电（记者杨家和）巴西中央银行25日发布报告，将该国2025年国内生产总值增 长预期由2.1%下调至2%。报告预计，2026年巴西经济增速将放缓至1.5%。 巴西央行近日宣布，将基准利率维持在15%不变。该央行表示，为应对通胀压力，利率需在"相当长时 期"内保持在较高水平。市场普遍预计，巴西央行可能要到2026年才会降息。 （文章来源：新华社） 报告指出，尽管巴西农业和采掘业今年下半年表现良好，但美国关税政策不确定性、全球地缘局势趋紧 等因素将拖累该国2025年经济增长。2026年，受多种因素影响，巴西经济增长可能明显放缓。 报告显示，巴西通胀仍高于目标水平。巴西央行预计，2025年巴西通胀率将达到4.8%，仍高于其设定 的3%中值、上下浮动1.5个百分点的目标区间。 ...

智利《三点钟报》9月22日报道，智利各大行会对2026年经济增长预期保守，普遍 预测GDP增长率在2%至2.5%之间。就业复苏是2026年的主要挑战。智利制造业促进协 会（SOFOFA）主席纳瓦罗认为2026年智利工业表现或参差不齐，工业发展缺乏明确的 规则、法律确定性和投资激励，目前非正规就业率高、特定群体参与率差距大、缺乏 优质正式就业岗位创造动力，正式就业仍将疲软。智利建筑协会（CChC）主席埃查瓦 里亚预计建筑业投资将复苏，但房地产部门仍落后于由矿业和能源大型私营项目推动 的基础设施建设。智利银行和金融机构协会（ABIF）主席曼努埃尔预计2026年智利失 业率为8.7%，银行业表现与2025年相似，银行贷款仍处于最差的信贷周期，总贷款额 预计仅增长2%-3%。商业贷款受限于投资低迷，消费贷款受劳动力市场疲软影响，住 房贷款因高利率和高房价而需求减少。智利全国商业、服务业和旅游业联合会 （原标题：智利各大行会预计2026年智利经济增长率在2%至2.5%间） （CNC）主席帕科米奥预计2025年零售额增长4.5%至5.5%，2026年扩张有限，批发贸 易受益于投资动态和库存补充，零售业增长可能放缓。目前的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent economic growth forecasts for Vietnam have been downgraded by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Standard Chartered Bank, citing short-term trade slowdown due to potential new tariffs from the US, while maintaining a stable long-term outlook due to strong foreign investment and global supply chain positioning [1] Group 1: Economic Forecasts - ADB has revised Vietnam's 2025 economic growth forecast from 6.6% to 6.3% and 2026 from 6.5% to 6.0% [1] - Standard Chartered Bank has lowered its forecast for 2025 from 6.7% to 6.1% [1] - UOB has increased its 2025 growth forecast from 6.0% to 6.9%, suggesting that the most tense period of US-Vietnam trade has passed [1] Group 2: Trade and Investment Insights - Short-term trade prospects for Vietnam are showing signs of slowing, with potential US tariffs likely to suppress export demand for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026 [1] - Long-term economic resilience is expected due to strong foreign investment inflows and a solidified position in the global supply chain [1] - Recommendations include accelerating public investment, particularly in key infrastructure projects, to generate spillover effects, enhance productivity, and attract more foreign capital [1] Group 3: GDP Growth Projections - ADB and Standard Chartered's forecasts indicate a cautious outlook for GDP growth in the near term [1] - UOB estimates Vietnam's GDP growth rate for Q3 and Q4 this year to be around 6.4%, with an annual GDP growth rate potentially reaching 6.9% [1]