来源：赵伟宏观探索 1、生产高频跟踪：工业生产走势分化，建筑业开工边际回落 工业生产中，高炉开工、钢材表观消费均有回升。上周（12月28日至01月03日），高炉开工率环比0.7%，同 比回升1.3个百分点至0.9%；钢材表观消费环比0.9%、同比上升4.4个百分点至2.2%。钢材社会库存延续回 落，环比-2.5%。 图 30: 上周, 高炉开工率有所回升 国高炉开工率 (247家) 2024 2022 2023 2025 2026 85 % 80 75 70 65 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 资料来源： Wind、申万宏源研究 图 31: 上周, 钢材周表观消费小幅回升 五大品种钢材周表观消费量 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 1300 力啊 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 资料来源: iFind、申万宏源研究 石化链、消费链开工整体偏弱。上周（12月28日至01月03日），石化链中，纯碱开工率环比-1.7%、同 ...

居民资产负债表，居民杠杆率 2024年第一季度以来，我国居民部门杠杆率开始缓慢下行，显示我国居民部门正逐步进行资产负债表修 复。 降低居民部门杠杆率主要有四种路径：通过债务减记降低负债端，或通过股票上涨、房产增值和收入增 长做大资产端。这四种路径的组合形成了三种降杠杆的模式：一是美国次贷危机后的模式，初期通过快 速的债务减记和股价上涨降低居民杠杆，而后收入回升和房价企稳促使居民资产负债表进一步修复。二 是美国公共卫生事件后的模式，彼时居民负债水平健康，财政与货币相互配合的超常规宽松促使股价和 居民收入上涨，起到降低杠杆率的作用。三是日本双重泡沫破灭后的模式，初期日本政府未及时处置不 良债务问题，居民负债居高不下，拖累了居民杠杆修复。亚洲金融海啸后日本开始推动不良债务出清， 但收入上涨未能弥补房价下跌的损失，居民杠杆迟迟没有下降；小泉上台后债务减记使杠杆率下降，但 收入增长缓慢；后期安倍"三支箭"使股价与收入上涨，带动房价企稳回升。 国际经验显示：一是在降杠杆的启动期，不良债务的处置具有重要作用。美国政府在次贷危机爆发后快 速地实施不良债务处置措施，通过购买不良资产以核销坏账，并对居民房贷进行重组，加速了居民资 ...

Core Insights - Suzhou's residents experienced stable income growth in the first three quarters of the year, with a notable reduction in the income gap between urban and rural residents [1][2] Group 1: Income Growth - The per capita disposable income for all residents in Suzhou reached 61,616 yuan, an increase of 2,505 yuan compared to the same period last year, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.2% [1] - Urban residents had a per capita disposable income of 68,961 yuan, up by 2,670 yuan year-on-year, reflecting a growth rate of 4.0% [1] - Rural residents saw a per capita disposable income of 38,591 yuan, which is an increase of 1,786 yuan year-on-year, translating to a growth rate of 4.9% [1] Group 2: Income Disparity - The income growth rate for rural residents outpaced that of urban residents by 0.9 percentage points, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1] - The urban-rural income ratio in Suzhou is 1.79, which has decreased by 0.01 compared to the previous year, indicating a narrowing income gap [1] Group 3: Income Sources - The average wage income per resident was 39,335 yuan, showing a growth of 4.8% year-on-year, which contributed 3.0 percentage points to the overall disposable income growth [2] - The average net operating income per resident was 5,866 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, contributing 0.2 percentage points to income growth [2] - The average net property income per resident was 7,589 yuan, also growing by 2.2% year-on-year, contributing 0.3 percentage points to the overall income growth [2] - The average net transfer income per resident reached 8,826 yuan, marking a 5.1% increase year-on-year, contributing 0.7 percentage points to the income growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of industrial production, construction, and demand trends in China, highlighting a mixed performance across various sectors, with some showing signs of recovery while others remain weak. Industrial Production Tracking - The operating rate of blast furnaces has significantly declined, with a week-on-week decrease of 3% to 81.7%, and a year-on-year drop of 3.3 percentage points to -0.7% [2][6] - Steel apparent consumption has increased by 2.7% week-on-week and returned to positive territory year-on-year, rising by 2.9 percentage points to 2.8% [2][8] - Social inventory continues to decline, down 2.1% week-on-week [2] Construction Industry Insights - Cement production and demand have shown some recovery but remain weaker than the same period last year, with a grinding operating rate up 1% to 46.3% week-on-week and a year-on-year increase of 2.8 percentage points to -2% [24][25] - Cement shipment rates have improved slightly, increasing by 0.8% week-on-week to 45.6%, but down 8.8% year-on-year [24][28] - The cement inventory ratio continues to rise, up 2.3% week-on-week and 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to 1.9% [24][31] Demand Tracking - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities has decreased by 11.3% week-on-week and 4.3 percentage points year-on-year to -25% [47][48] - The transaction volume in first-tier cities has dropped significantly, with year-on-year declines of 20.1 percentage points to -49.6% [47][51] - Port cargo throughput has rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 16.5% to 13% [57][64] Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are showing a mixed performance, with vegetable prices rising by 8.1% week-on-week, while pork and egg prices have decreased by 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively [99][100][106] - The overall industrial product prices are on the rise, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index increasing by 1.8% week-on-week [111][112]

Income Sources - The per capita wage income is 28,909 yuan, an increase of 4.6% year-on-year [2] - The per capita operating net income is 5,629 yuan, an increase of 5.1% year-on-year [2] - The per capita property net income is 5,375 yuan, an increase of 2.8% year-on-year [2] - The per capita transfer net income is 2,929 yuan, an increase of 3.7% year-on-year [2] Urban and Rural Residents - The per capita disposable income of urban residents is 51,187 yuan, an increase of 3.9% year-on-year [2] - The per capita disposable income of rural residents is 22,308 yuan, an increase of 5.5% year-on-year [2]

Group 1: Income Growth - In the first three quarters, the national per capita disposable income reached 32,509 yuan, representing a nominal increase of 5.1% compared to the same period last year, and a real increase of 5.2% after adjusting for price factors [1] - The main contributors to income growth include stable increases in wage income, operating net income, and transfer net income [1] - Per capita wage income was 18,659 yuan, up 5.4% year-on-year, while per capita operating net income was 5,199 yuan, increasing by 5.3% due to expanded domestic consumption and increased holiday travel spending [1] Group 2: Consumption Expenditure - In the first three quarters, the national per capita consumption expenditure was 21,575 yuan, showing a nominal increase of 4.6% year-on-year, with a real increase of 4.7% after accounting for price factors [2] - The structure of consumption expenditure indicates rapid growth in spending on daily necessities and services, transportation and communication, education, culture and entertainment, and other goods and services [2] - Per capita service consumption expenditure was 10,096 yuan, growing by 4.1%, and accounted for 46.8% of total consumption expenditure [2]

Core Insights - The national economy is operating smoothly with stable employment, effective livelihood guarantees, and steady growth in residents' income and consumption expenditure [1] Group 1: Residents' Income Growth - The per capita disposable income of residents reached 32,509 yuan in the first three quarters, representing a nominal increase of 5.1% year-on-year, and a real increase of 5.2% after adjusting for price factors [2] - Urban residents' per capita disposable income was 42,991 yuan, with a nominal increase of 4.4% and a real increase of 4.5%, while rural residents' per capita disposable income was 17,686 yuan, with a nominal increase of 5.7% and a real increase of 6.0% [2] - The growth rates of nominal and real income for rural residents outpaced those of urban residents by 1.3 and 1.5 percentage points, respectively [2] Group 2: Income Composition - Wage income, operating net income, and transfer net income are the main factors supporting the growth of residents' income [3] - The average wage income per capita was 18,659 yuan, with a nominal growth of 5.4%, surpassing the national income growth rate by 0.3 percentage points [3] - The per capita operating net income was 5,199 yuan, growing by 5.3%, while the per capita transfer net income was 6,023 yuan, also increasing by 5.3% [3] Group 3: Residents' Consumption Expenditure - The per capita consumption expenditure of residents was 21,575 yuan, with a nominal increase of 4.6% and a real increase of 4.7% [4] - Urban residents' per capita consumption expenditure was 26,510 yuan, with a nominal increase of 3.8%, while rural residents' per capita consumption expenditure was 14,597 yuan, with a nominal increase of 5.5% [4] - Significant growth was observed in spending on daily necessities and services, transportation and communication, education and cultural entertainment, and other goods and services [4] Group 4: Service Consumption - The per capita service consumption expenditure was 10,096 yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.1% [5] - Service consumption accounted for 46.8% of total residents' consumption expenditure [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, China's population has remained stable, with improvements in population quality, stable employment, and steady growth in residents' income, providing foundational support for high-quality economic and social development [1] Group 2 - As of the end of 2024, the total population of China is projected to be 1,408.28 million, ranking among the highest in the world. The urban population is expected to reach 943.50 million, with an urbanization rate of 67.00%, an increase of 3.11 percentage points since the end of 2020 [3] Group 3 - The employment situation is generally stable, with continued growth in urban employment. The average urban survey unemployment rate is expected to be 5.1% by the end of 2024, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from 2020. The third industry has shown enhanced employment absorption capacity, with an increase of 600,000 jobs since 2020, raising its share of total employment by 1.1 percentage points [6] Group 4 - Residents' income has shown stable growth, with the per capita disposable income expected to reach 41,314 yuan in 2024, an increase of 9,125 yuan since 2020. After adjusting for price factors, the average annual real growth rate from 2021 to 2024 is projected to be 5.5%, in line with GDP growth [9] Group 5 - In terms of expenditure, development-oriented consumption in education, culture, entertainment, transportation, communication, and healthcare is expected to grow rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of 10.0% from 2021 to 2024. Service consumption expenditure is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 9.5%, outpacing goods consumption expenditure by 3.8 percentage points [11]

Group 1 - Jiangsu Province will suspend the automobile replacement subsidy policy effective from September 28, 2025, with consumers needing to submit applications by October 20, 2025, for purchases made before the suspension [4] - Five Star Zhai, known as the "first stock of rice dumplings," has initiated preparations for a Hong Kong listing, despite facing a decline in revenue by 18.64% to 1.579 billion yuan in 2024 [5] - Shanghai Future Industry Fund has successfully expanded its scale from 10 billion yuan to 15 billion yuan, focusing on disruptive innovation and early-stage investments in cutting-edge technologies [5] Group 2 - Guangzhou has released new regulations for housing provident fund withdrawals, allowing contributors to withdraw funds for purchasing various types of housing and for old elevator renovations [3] - The U.S. Federal Reserve has an 87.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, indicating potential shifts in monetary policy that could impact investment strategies [4]

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production has shown improvement, with blast furnace operating rates increasing by 3.5% week-on-week and 3.5 percentage points year-on-year to 6.2% [2][5] - The chemical production chain has also seen a rebound, with soda ash and PTA operating rates rising by 1.1% and 5.5% respectively, year-on-year changes of 2.7 percentage points to 12.5% and 8.5 percentage points to -6.3% [2][12] - The automotive semi-steel tire operating rate has improved, increasing by 6% week-on-week and 5.8 percentage points year-on-year to 73.5% [12] Group 2: Construction and Infrastructure - Infrastructure construction remains at a high level, with national grinding operating rates and cement shipment rates rising by 4.3% and 1.1% respectively, year-on-year changes of 5.8 percentage points to -5.5% and 1.1 percentage points to -4.4% [2][16] - Asphalt operating rates have slightly decreased by 1.8% week-on-week but remain at a high level year-on-year at 12.4% [2][22] Group 3: Real Estate and Demand - Real estate transactions have improved, with the average daily transaction area of new homes rising by 9.6 percentage points year-on-year to 6.3%, particularly in first and second-tier cities [2][25] - Port cargo throughput related to exports has shown strong performance, with year-on-year increases of 3% to 7.2% and 7.8% to 13.4% for cargo and container throughput respectively [2][32] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices have rebounded, with prices for eggs, vegetables, and pork increasing by 1.3%, 0.8%, and 0.3% respectively [3][57] - Industrial product prices are showing divergence, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index increasing by 0.1% week-on-week, while energy and chemical prices decreased by 0.2% and metal prices increased by 0.3% [3][63]