智通财经APP获悉，美元正面临八年来最大幅度的年度下跌，投资者表示，如果下一任美联储主席如预 期般选择更大幅度的降息，美元还将进一步下跌。今年以来，美元现货指数已下跌约8%。继4月份特朗 普宣布"解放日"关税政策后，美元大幅下挫，随后随着特朗普积极推动明年任命一位鸽派人士担任美联 储主席，美元持续承压。 野村证券外汇策略师Yusuke Miyairi表示："第一季度影响美元走势的最大因素将是美联储。这不仅包括 1月和3月的会议，还包括鲍威尔卸任后谁将接任美联储主席。" 市场普遍预期美联储明年至少会有两次降息，美国的政策路径与一些发达经济体的政策路径有所不同， 这进一步削弱了美元的吸引力。由于温和的通胀和即将到来的欧洲国防开支浪潮使得市场对欧洲央行降 息的预期接近于零，欧元兑美元汇率大幅上涨。与此同时，在加拿大、瑞典和澳大利亚，利率交易员则 押注加息。 美国商品期货交易委员会截至 12 月 16 日当周的数据显示，本月美元短暂的看涨行情又转回了自 4 月份 关税引发对美国经济的担忧以来一直占据主导地位的悲观情绪。 目前，一切都围绕着美联储以及谁将接替鲍威尔展开，鲍威尔的主席任期将于5月结束。特朗普最近暗 示他已 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dollar has declined as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes [1] Group 1 - Analyst Joseph Dahrieh from Tickmill Group indicates that the decline in the dollar is linked to investor behavior [1]

金价，仍在狂飙！ 12月12日，现货黄金价格持续向上，突破4350美元/盎司，距离历史新高仅一步之遥。虽然随后短线下挫，但仍引发市场对金价的再次侧目。 与此同时，品牌金饰价格也节节攀升。12月13日，老庙黄金的金饰价格涨至1352元/克，周生生涨至1351元/克，均突破1350元/克的高位。周大福金饰价格 为1348元/克，六福珠宝为1346元/克。 监制：韩霁审核：彭金美 网友纷纷表示，"天呐现在已经这么高了吗""真的很夸张"。 编辑：张萌 校对：张尤佳（见习） 世界黄金协会展望称，2026年金价前景仍将受到持续的地缘经济不确定性影响。从今年走势看，2026年金价很可能继续带来"惊喜"。如果经济增长放缓， 利率进一步下降，黄金可能会温和上涨。在以全球风险上升为特征的更为严重的经济低迷时期，黄金可能会表现强劲。 高盛分析师近期表示，对2026年底金价每盎司4900美元的预测存在显著上行空间。高盛预计，2025年央行购金量平均为80吨，2026年为70吨，并称新兴市 场央行可能会继续将储备从美元分散到黄金。 来源：中国基金报 近期黄金延续上行动能，核心驱动力源于美联储最新决议的鹰派程度不及市场事前担忧，叠加市场 ...

包括德意志银行和高盛在内的华尔街银行预测，随着美联储明年继续小幅下调利率，美元将恢复其跌 势。策略师预计，到2026年美元将进一步走弱，因为美国央行放松政策而其他国家央行保持稳定或考虑 加息，这种利差将激励投资者将资金转移至收益更高的非美市场。彭博社的共识估计显示，衡量美元价 值的指数到2026年底预计将下跌约3%，而摩根士丹利等机构认为市场仍有空间为更大幅度的降息定 价，从而导致美元进一步疲软。 ...

法国兴业银行的Kit Juckes在一份报告中称，美元可能正处于其下跌的最后阶段。他称，对美联储进一 步降息的预期、对宽松货币和财政政策所构成风险以及美联储资产负债表预警能力的担忧，以及对高估 值股票将下跌的恐惧，都支持美元在短期内进一步走软。不过，与世界其他地区相比，美国更强劲的增 长可能会在2026年回归，尽管要到年中才会如此。他称，这将限制美联储的降息空间以及利率在低位停 留的时间。 ...

机构：美元可能在2026年因美联储的降息而下跌 11月28日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0789，下调10点。 Pictet Asset Management策略师Luca Paolini表示，随着经济增长放缓为美联储进一步降息铺平道路，美 元明年将面临新一轮疲软。他指出，美元的利率差正在显著收窄。"我们预计美国经济会变得稍微疲 软，这将使通胀压力慢慢消失。"相对而言，世界其他地区的经济增长可能会改善，尤其是欧洲和日 本。除此之外，美元估值仍显偏高。Pictet预计，到2026年底，美元指数将从目前的99.55附近跌至95。 来源：新浪网 美联储12月降息25个基点的概率升至86.9% 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为86.9%，维持利率不变的概率为13.1%。美联 储到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为67.3%，维持利率不变的概率为9.6%，累计降息50个基点的概 率为23.1%。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：n ...

【机构：美元可能在2026年因美联储的降息而下跌】智通财经11月27日电，Pictet Asset Management策 略师Luca Paolini表示，随着经济增长放缓为美联储进一步降息铺平道路，美元明年将面临新一轮疲 软。他指出，美元的利率差正在显著收窄。"我们预计美国经济会变得稍微疲软，这将使通胀压力慢慢 消失。"相对而言，世界其他地区的经济增长可能会改善，尤其是欧洲和日本。除此之外，美元估值仍 显偏高。Pictet预计，到2026年底，美元指数将从目前的99.55附近跌至95。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has obscured signals of structural weakness in the labor market, which may lead to a downward pressure on the dollar once data resumes publication [2] - In October, the dollar recorded its second-best monthly performance of the year despite the government shutdown, attributed to a lack of economic data [2] - Morgan Stanley's G-10 FX strategist David Adams noted that the absence of labor market data allows investors to overlook potential trends related to structural hiring slowdowns [2] Group 2 - The latest non-farm payroll report before the government shutdown indicated a significant cooling in job growth, with the unemployment rate rising to its highest level since 2021 [3] - Bloomberg macro strategist Brendan Fagan highlighted that the narrative around the labor market is softening, increasing the risk of a trap for yield-driven support [3] - Mitsubishi UFJ's Derek Halpenny expects a sell-off in the dollar once new data is released, indicating further weakness in the job market [3] Group 3 - According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc., U.S. companies announced the highest number of layoffs for October in over two decades [4] - Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. lowered its earnings outlook for the third time this year, reflecting weak consumer spending as fewer diners eat out [4] - Halpenny predicts a significant sell-off in the dollar, particularly against the euro, with expectations that the euro could reach 1.20 against the dollar by year-end [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on the labor market and the potential downward pressure on the U.S. dollar as economic data resumes publication, highlighting structural weaknesses in the labor market [5][6][7]. Labor Market Analysis - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of structural weakness, with a lack of employment data allowing investors to overlook potential trends related to hiring slowdowns [5][6]. - A recent non-farm payroll report indicated a significant cooling in job growth, with the unemployment rate rising to its highest level since 2021 [6][7]. - Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. reported that U.S. companies announced the highest number of layoffs for October in over two decades, indicating weak consumer spending [7]. Dollar Performance and Predictions - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index experienced its largest decline since mid-October, with a year-to-date drop of 6.8% [6]. - Analysts predict a potential sell-off of the dollar once new labor market data is released, which is expected to show further weakness [6][7]. - The euro is anticipated to strengthen against the dollar, with predictions suggesting it could reach 1.20 by year-end, a level not seen in over four years [7][8]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The sentiment around the dollar is shifting, with Morgan Stanley changing its stance from bearish to neutral, contingent on significant changes in U.S. interest rate outlook [8][9]. - The article notes that the end of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle and a potential discussion of rate hikes could halt the erosion of the dollar's interest rate advantage [9].

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley strategists predict that the US dollar will decline due to larger interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve compared to the European Central Bank [1] - Factors contributing to the dollar's potential decline include a slowing US economy, trade and policy uncertainties, and moderate fiscal support [1] - Global fiscal concerns are easing, which may further impact the dollar negatively [1]