期交易员预计，到年底美联储将累计降息三次，首次降息大概率在美东时间周三的会议上落地。此前市场仅预计年底前降息一 次，而5月美国非农就业新增人数较预期减少20%，甚至让市场短暂押注本周降息幅度可能扩大至50个基点，后因通胀数据企 稳才回落至25个基点。 周一美国国债相对其他全球主权债的收益率优势，已从1月的200多个基点收窄至120个基点。 2025年，市场对美联储重启降息周期的预期持续升温，此前因美国赤字占GDP比例持续高于6%，不少分析师担忧债务偿付压 力，甚至建议减持美债，而如今预期转向直接推动美国国债在全球主要主权债券市场中脱颖而出，跃居收益榜首。 据彭博指数统计，以本币计价的2025年美国国债回报率达到5.8%，在全球15大债券市场中位列第一。不过尽管美国国债相对 全球同类债券的额外收益率仍保持显著优势，但已降至三年低点。 2025年美元指数较年初回调约3%，以美元计价的投资者在配置海外主权债时，除债券本身收益外，还能获得汇率转换带来的 额外收益，这使得海外资产的表面回报高于美国国债。但如果剔除汇率干扰，仅聚焦债券本身表现便会发现，在多重利空冲击 下，其他主要市场主权债均显逊色。 因美元下跌，意大利国 ...

Core Insights - The New South Wales government bond management has successfully reduced its exposure to the US dollar, preparing for further depreciation of the currency [1] - The investment management department shifted its currency allocation from nearly 75% in US dollars to 14% in favor of defensive currencies like yen, franc, and euro, resulting in improved returns [1] - The fund currently forecasts a further 10% decline in the US dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices reached a two-month high due to a decline in the dollar, positive economic data, and optimistic expectations for a rate cut in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Copper Market Performance - On September 2, LME three-month copper rose by $96.5, or 0.98%, closing at $9,980.5 per ton, with an intraday high of $10,009, the highest since July 3 [1][2] - The premium for copper imports in China, measured by the Yangshan copper premium, increased to $55 per ton, up from $29 on July 8, but still below the $100 level seen in May [4] - LME copper inventories are high, indicating weak demand outside of China, with spot copper trading at a discount of approximately $85 per ton compared to three-month copper [5][6] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the sixth consecutive month in August, with the ISM manufacturing PMI slightly rising to 48.7 from 48.0 in July, remaining below the neutral level of 50 [6] - The new orders index in the ISM survey rose to 51.4, indicating potential recovery after six months of contraction [7] - Market attention is focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17, with expectations of a rate cut that could weaken the dollar and boost metal prices [7] Group 3: Other Base Metals Performance - LME three-month aluminum increased by $8, or 0.31%, closing at $2,619.0 per ton [2][8] - LME three-month zinc rose by $32.5, or 1.15%, closing at $2,865.0 per ton [2][8] - LME three-month lead decreased by $9.5, or 0.47%, closing at $1,994.0 per ton [2][9] - LME three-month nickel fell by $207, or 1.34%, closing at $15,232.0 per ton [2][10] - LME three-month tin dropped by $219, or 0.63%, closing at $34,733.0 per ton [2][8]

Key Points of the Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The prices of various commodities are expected to show different trends, including short - term oscillations, short - term weakening, and short - term rebounds, depending on factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market expectations [1][3][4]. - The stock market has potential for continuous growth in the second half of the year, while long - term bonds are expected to oscillate negatively due to factors like liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw effect [8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Coal and Related Products - **Coking Coal**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.5%, with a 0.47% week - on - week increase. The daily output of clean coal was 260,000 tons, up 300 tons week - on - week, and the inventory was 2.895 million tons, down 54,000 tons week - on - week. Due to the ongoing negotiation of the eighth round of coke price increases, the downstream procurement enthusiasm has declined. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The operating rate of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises was 36.52%, with a 0.34% week - on - week increase. The daily output was 16,205 tons, up 0.5% week - on - week. The cost side is supported, but the downstream demand is expected to decline during the military parade, and the supply is increasing. The short - term price decline is limited, but the medium - to - long - term price will tend to decline [3]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: In the week ending August 22, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.392 million barrels to 418 million barrels. The EIA gasoline inventory decreased by 1.236 million barrels. The U.S. domestic crude oil production increased by 57,000 barrels to 1.3439 million barrels per day. The weekly crude oil shipments from Russian ports decreased by 320,000 barrels per day to 2.72 million barrels per day. The inventory decline was slightly lower than market expectations. The short - term trend is oscillating weakly [1]. Metal Products - **Rebar**: On August 27, the domestic steel market declined weakly. The ex - factory price of billets in Qian'an, Tangshan decreased by 20 yuan to 3,010 yuan per ton. The average price of 20mm grade - III earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities was 3,334 yuan per ton, down 11 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. Supply is expected to shrink due to environmental protection restrictions, and demand is currently weak but expected to improve in September. The steel price will oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Silver**: The remarks from the New York Fed President opened up the expectation of an interest rate cut in September. The overnight dollar decline boosted precious metals, and silver is still oscillating upward [7]. - **Gold**: The influence on the Fed's independence and the market's concern about stagflation in the U.S. are positive for gold. The short - term rebound is due to the expectation of an interest rate cut, but the medium - term trend needs further observation [7]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans**: The predicted export volume of Brazilian soybeans from August 24 to 30 is 1.6307 million tons, down from 1.8459 million tons last week. The domestic soybean price is currently fluctuating within a narrow range. With the upcoming increase in new soybean supply and limited demand, the domestic soybean price will remain weakly stable in the short term [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 25 was 933,437 tons, a 36.41% increase from the same period last month. The financial market weakness and the decline in crude oil prices are suppressing the palm oil price. The short - term trend is oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Rubber**: The raw material prices in Thailand are rising steadily. The export volume of natural rubber and mixed rubber from Vietnam in the first seven months decreased by 0.8% year - on - year, but the export volume to China increased by 5% year - on - year. The domestic natural rubber social inventory decreased by 1.5 million tons, a 1.1% decline. The short - term adjustment is followed by a medium - term upward - oscillating trend [4]. - **Pig**: On August 27, the national average price of pork in agricultural product wholesale markets decreased by 0.4%. The national pig price has stopped falling and rebounded. The short - term market is expected to have a small - scale rebound, but the amplitude is limited. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions, and pig farmers can choose to sell hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [6]. Chemical Products - **Methanol**: The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu decreased by 22 yuan to 2,250 yuan per ton. The domestic methanol capacity utilization rate increased by 1.36% to 83.76%. The port inventory increased, and the expected import volume in September remains high. The methanol 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the upper pressure at 2,395 yuan. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [8][9]. - **Soda Ash**: The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash nationwide is 1,294 yuan per ton, oscillating weakly recently. The weekly output increased by 1.33%, and the inventory increased by 0.9%. The float glass market is stable, and the domestic soda ash market is oscillating weakly. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the upper pressure at 1,305 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. - **Polypropylene**: The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene decreased by 16 yuan to 6,994 yuan per ton. The capacity utilization rate increased by 0.2%. The commercial inventory decreased, but it is still higher than the same period in the previous two years. The market price is oscillating weakly. The PP 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the upper pressure at 7,040 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see or short on a short - term basis [10]. Others - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: In July, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for two consecutive months. The profit of high - tech manufacturing increased significantly. The stock market has potential for continuous growth, and long - term bonds are expected to oscillate negatively. It is recommended to short long - term bonds at key resistance levels [8]. - **Bottle Chips**: In 2025, the bottle chip capacity is still growing, with an expected growth rate of about 9.1%. The current production is stable, and the downstream industries have stable or slightly increasing operating rates. The market is in the peak consumption season for soft drinks, and with the reduction in production by major manufacturers, the inventory is slowly decreasing. The market is expected to oscillate upward [5].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar has experienced a decline against a basket of currencies for three consecutive weeks, driven by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower key interest rates in September [1] Group 1: Currency Market Trends - The index measuring the US dollar against six major currencies fell by 0.10%, closing at 97.73 points [1] - The euro appreciated by 0.15% against the dollar, reaching 1 euro to 1.1715 dollars [1] - The dollar depreciated by 0.15% against the yen, with the exchange rate at 1 dollar to 146.95 yen [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Investors are closely monitoring Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Wyoming conference, focusing on potential signals regarding interest rate cuts [1] - Current data indicates a weakening US labor market, which supports the case for rate cuts, while persistent inflation limits the Fed's policy options [1] - Powell noted that economic risks are becoming balanced, suggesting that the timing for monetary policy adjustments is approaching, which the market interprets as a signal for a 25 basis point rate cut at the September 17 meeting [1]

Group 1 - The price of London spot gold reached $3,383.36 per ounce, showing an increase of 0.85% or $28.61 compared to the previous closing price [1] - During the trading session, the highest price was $3,384.91 per ounce, while the lowest was $3,351.16 per ounce [1] Group 2 - President Trump dismissed Federal Reserve Board member Cook, indicating an attempt to exert more influence over the central bank, which threatens its political independence [2] - The dismissal led to a decline in the dollar and a surge in gold prices, as Trump seeks to encourage the Fed to lower interest rates [2] - If successful, Trump's actions could allow him to appoint a compliant replacement for Cook, potentially giving him a majority on the Fed Board [2] Group 3 - Technically, London gold is showing a strong bullish trend, having broken through key resistance levels, with a recent high of $3,385.71 per ounce [3] - The price must hold above $3,385 to open further upward potential, targeting $3,400 and $3,420 in the future [4] Group 4 - Short-term support is at $3,351.16, which may attract buying interest if the price retraces to this level [4] - Resistance is noted in the $3,385-$3,390 range, with a breakthrough potentially leading to a target of $3,400 [4] - If the price falls below the support level, it may trigger technical selling, with a potential target of $3,330-$3,340 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices experienced fluctuations due to fund selling, with a closing increase observed before the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Market - On August 20, LME three-month copper rose by $28.5, or 0.29%, closing at $9,720.5 per ton, after hitting a low of $9,670.50, the lowest since August 7 [1][2]. - Concerns over demand have led to spot copper trading at a discount of nearly $100 per ton compared to three-month copper, marking the deepest discount since February [4]. Group 2: Other Base Metals - Three-month aluminum prices closed at $2,576.5 per ton, up $13 or 0.51%, after earlier touching a two-week low of $2,558 per ton [2][4]. - The International Aluminium Institute (IAI) reported that global primary aluminum production in July was 6.373 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with a daily average production of 205,600 tons [4].

Core Viewpoint - UBS strategists warn that a weak U.S. labor market and personnel changes at the Federal Reserve and the Bureau of Labor Statistics may lead to a simultaneous decline in the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [1][3] Group 1: Labor Market and Economic Indicators - The recent non-farm payroll report indicated a slowdown in hiring, which has not been fully absorbed by the market [1] - July's non-farm data fell short of expectations, and revisions to the previous two months' figures have raised concerns about the quality and credibility of U.S. economic data [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Political Pressure - Political pressure is eroding the independence of government agencies, leading to increasing worries among investors [3] - Former President Trump reacted strongly to the employment data, calling for the dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director and criticizing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates [3] Group 3: Market Implications - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has declined by 8% this year and may continue to fall due to rising risks, while currencies like the euro and yen are expected to appreciate [3] - The simultaneous emergence of traditional macro factors and risk premium elements that are negative for the dollar is noted as a significant development since spring [1]

Core Viewpoint - Fidelity International predicts that gold prices could rise to $4,000 due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a decline in the value of the US dollar [1] Group 1 - Fidelity International's forecast is based on the expectation of future Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - The potential depreciation of the US dollar is a significant factor influencing the projected increase in gold prices [1]

Group 1 - The dollar has experienced its worst first half since the Nixon era, with a 10.7% decline against global peers as of June [1] - Factors contributing to the dollar's decline include policy unpredictability, rising debt and deficits, and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - The dollar's downward trend began in mid-January and has shown limited signs of recovery since then [1] Group 2 - A weaker dollar can benefit the stock market, particularly for companies in the S&P 500 that derive over 40% of their revenue from international sales [2] - Concerns are growing about the potential end of "American exceptionalism" and "dollar hegemony," with U.S. public debt nearing $30 trillion and projected deficits approaching $2 trillion by 2025 [2] - Central banks are increasing gold purchases as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, with global purchases reaching 24 tons per month [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts could exert further downward pressure on the dollar, although the effects of such policy changes may be unpredictable [3] - Some analysts believe the dollar's decline may not be permanent, citing recent stock market rebounds as a sign of renewed confidence in U.S. assets [4][5] - Concerns regarding the dollar's role in global trade and finance may be overstated, as it remains a cornerstone of the global financial system [5]