安联首席经济顾问Mohamed El-Erian今日撰文指出，尽管市场普遍预期特朗普提名的新任美联储主席将 迅速推动降息，但这种短期市场反应可能会不及预期剧烈，新任主席面临的真正挑战在于如何通过深层 改革重塑美联储的长期信誉。 随着"极度鸽派"的哈塞特被"内定"美联储主席一任，市场押注，若其实际获得提名，可能引发短期国债 收益率下降、美元走弱以及通胀预期上升，进而拉大长短期利率之间的差距。 机构信誉的受损还因治理问题雪上加霜。尽管部分针对官员财务不当行为的指控未被证实违法，但这已 加剧了公众的不信任。据Gallup今年10月的一项民意调查显示，仅有9%的美国人认为美联储的工作表 现"出色"，远低于认为其表现"差劲"（27%）或"一般"（35%）的比例。这种信任赤字使得美联储在面 对来自左翼和右翼的政治攻击时显得愈发脆弱。 超越降息：亟待进行的结构性改革 然而，El-Erian 9日在英国《金融时报》发表的评论文章中对此"泼冷水"。他警告称，即便提名落地， 上述市场走势也难以持续。这不仅因为预测市场已提前计价，更因为美联储公开市场委员会 （FOMC）内部日益分裂且缺乏统一战略愿景。新任主席不仅难以在短期内确立权 ...

美国总统特朗普即将公布的美联储主席人选，对市场的即时影响很可能不如部分人所言那般剧烈。相比 之下，其对这一全球最重要央行的长期影响，或许更为深远。 特朗普近期已表示将在明年初公开提名结果，市场焦点集中在"新主席将比现任主席鲍威尔更愿意降 息"的预期上。尤其是就凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）而言——他在报道提及的5位候选人短名单中脱颖 而出成为领跑者，且被视为其中最偏鸽派的人选。 这促使部分人认为，哈塞特若获任命，可能触发市场定价调整：短期国债收益率下行、美元走弱、通胀 预期升温，而通胀预期上升将扩大长短端利率差。 但即便对哈塞特的提名公布后市场出现此类波动（这只是一个假设），仅基于提名人选本身（无论是 谁），这种波动也可能难以持续，原因有二。 首先，市场往往会在消息公布前提前消化相关信息。哈塞特早已是预测市场中稳坐头把交椅的热门人 选，且优势明显。 其次，更重要的是，任何新主席都需要时间才能在政策制定机构联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）中树 立权威。该委员会如今已愈发分裂，缺乏统一的战略愿景，同时还要应对相互矛盾的信号——这些信号 既威胁着央行"充分就业"与"物价稳定"的双重使命，也引发了金融稳定担 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 2025年8月，美国总统特朗普在"真相社交"（Truth Social）平台发文，猛烈抨击其第一任期财政部长史 蒂文·姆努钦（Steven Mnuchin），因其2017年建议自己任命鲍威尔为美联储主席。 特朗普数月来一直怒斥鲍威尔降息速度不够快，他在文中写道："史蒂夫·'曼努钦'（此处为特朗普故意 写错姓氏）给我推了这么个'废物'，真是'帮了大忙'。他总是行动迟缓，造成的损失不可估量。" 这番对特朗普第一任期最忠诚内阁成员之一的尖锐批评，正值现任财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）筹备为鲍威尔寻找继任者之际——鲍威尔的主席任期将于明年到期。 下一任美联储主席的任命事关重大。特朗普毫不掩饰地表示，期望自己选中的人能迅速降息。但这一任 命也让贝森特陷入异常尴尬的境地，特朗普明确表示，这位财政部长的前途与美联储接下来的行动紧密 挂钩。 上月在华盛顿的一场演讲中，特朗普开玩笑称，对贝森特未能说动鲍威尔降息感到失望。 "斯科特唯一搞砸的就是美联储的事，"这位美国总统在沙特投资论坛的讲话中表示，"要是你不赶紧搞 定，我就解雇你。" 特朗普预计将很 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, aims to implement a new regulation requiring candidates for Federal Reserve district bank presidents to have resided in their respective districts for at least three years [1][3][6] Group 1: Proposed Regulation - Becerra has expressed the need for a comprehensive adjustment to the Federal Reserve, criticizing its overreach and deviation from its primary mission of monetary policy [2][5] - He reiterated that currently, three Federal Reserve district bank presidents do not meet his proposed residency standard [3][6] - The new regulation may require Congressional approval or could be implemented by the Federal Reserve Chair and Board [3][6] Group 2: Current Leadership and Nomination Process - Under the current structure, district bank presidents are nominated by the bank's board (excluding financial institution employees) and approved by the Federal Reserve Board [7] - The term for district bank presidents is five years, with the current term ending in February; the current Atlanta Fed president, Raphael Bostic, has announced he will step down [7] Group 3: Concerns on Private Credit - Becerra expressed concerns that private credit may be pro-cyclical during economic downturns, noting that investors tend to panic at the bottom of the cycle [8] - He contrasted this with regulated financial institutions, where the Treasury, Federal Reserve, and other regulators can provide "window guidance" to ease lending, which could mitigate economic downturns [8] - Becerra believes the growth of private credit is symptomatic of excessive bank regulation and emphasized ongoing collaboration with regulators to create more credit within the regulated banking system [8]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 随着美联储着眼于向新任主席过渡的转型期，著名经济学家埃尔-埃利安（Mohamed El-Erian）认为， 这一刻来得越早越好。 这位Pimco前CEO呼应了财政部长贝森特等人的呼吁，即美联储应在经济辩论中退居二线，转而关注大 局。 现任剑桥大学皇后学院院长的埃尔-埃利安表示，"这届美联储睡着了，这家独立的央行需要承认自己犯 了一些错误：它需要思考情景分析而不是点估计，它需要更密切地关注供给侧经济学，并且需要改善其 合规文化。" 他补充道，"我们在美联储身上有很多需要关注的事情，因为它对我们的经济福祉至关重要。" 目前，哈塞特被认为是最有可能获得特朗普支持的人选。 贝森特已经开始让华尔街为迎接一个重塑后的美联储做好准备。分析师们可能不喜欢这样，因为他们已 经习惯了研读各路美联储主席和理事的演讲细节。"我认为我们需要让所有这些银行行长的演讲冷静下 来，这些演讲完全是多余的，"贝森特上周表示。"他们为什么不真正站出来谈谈对美国人民有意义的问 题，而不是只盯着下次会议的短期观点？" 埃尔-埃利安表示，贝森特对美联储未来的预判是"完美的"，并补充道："我们不需 ...

Core Viewpoint - The next Federal Reserve Chair candidate is expected to be determined before Christmas, with a shortlist of five candidates being finalized [1][3][5]. Candidate Selection - The candidate list has been narrowed down to five individuals: former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, NEC Director Kevin Hassett, current Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder [1][5]. - The final decision on the new chair will be made by President Trump, who has been under pressure to influence the Fed's direction [6]. Economic Outlook - The U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed optimism about the U.S. economy, predicting a synchronized prosperity in both the real economy and financial markets next year [3]. - There is an expectation of strong job growth and significant tax refunds in Q1 2026, which could boost consumer spending [3]. Fed's Recent Actions - The Fed recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the fifth cut since September 2024, but the decision was not unanimously supported [6][7]. - The Fed's recent statements have raised concerns about its adherence to outdated thinking and inaccurate inflation predictions [3][7]. Future Monetary Policy - There is uncertainty regarding the Fed's policy direction for December, with differing opinions among committee members about further rate cuts [7][8]. - Some analysts predict that the Fed may maintain rates in December, contrary to earlier expectations of another cut [8].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Bessent, appreciates the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points but criticizes the Fed's subsequent statements, indicating a need for a complete reform of the institution [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions and Statements - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut to alleviate potential weakness in the job market, but the accompanying statements suggest the Fed is still living in the past [3][4]. - Bessent expressed confusion over the Fed's reluctance to signal another rate cut in December, stating that their GDP and inflation forecasts have consistently been incorrect [3][4]. Group 2: Leadership Changes and Future Candidates - Bessent aims to find a new leader for the Federal Reserve who can thoroughly reform the institution's processes and operations [3][4]. - As of now, there are five final candidates to succeed Powell when his term ends in May next year, including White House economic advisor Hassett and current Fed governors [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin supports the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points but criticizes the Fed's reluctance to consider further cuts this year, indicating a need for comprehensive reform within the institution [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions and Statements - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points is acknowledged as a positive step, but the accompanying statements reveal a stagnant mindset within the institution [1] - Mnuchin highlights that the Fed's inflation predictions have been significantly off this year, suggesting that its analytical models are ineffective [1] - The Fed's indication that there may not be further rate cuts in December is questioned by Mnuchin, who points out ongoing errors in GDP and inflation forecasts [1] Group 2: Leadership Changes and Succession - Mnuchin plans to initiate a second round of interviews in early December to select a successor for current Fed Chair Powell, aiming for a new leader who can fundamentally reform the Fed's processes and operations [1] - Trump has been critical of Powell's performance, labeling him as "incompetent" during a meeting with business leaders in Tokyo [2] - Five candidates have been shortlisted to succeed Powell, including Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, and Rick Reed [2]

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran has emerged as a distinctive voice in economic policy, challenging traditional economic theories and practices, particularly in monetary policy, through his roles at the Federal Reserve and the White House Council of Economic Advisers [1][3]. Group 1: Career Background - Miran's unconventional career path includes a transition from biochemistry at Boston University to deep economic thought, reflecting a unique mindset [3]. - He served as a senior advisor at the Treasury during the Trump administration, contributing to significant economic policies like the CARES Act [3]. - After leaving the corporate sector, he joined the Manhattan Institute, focusing on topics such as the return of U.S. manufacturing and global trade restructuring, becoming a key advisor in Trump's economic policy [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - At the September 2023 Federal Reserve meeting, Miran proposed a 50 basis point interest rate cut, contrasting with the 25 basis point cut supported by other members [4]. - He argues that the current tight monetary policy is hindering economic recovery, advocating for a federal funds rate closer to 2% instead of the current level [4]. - Miran's stance reflects a deep understanding of the U.S. economic situation, emphasizing that high interest rates are suppressing economic growth and credit market activity [4]. Group 3: Industrial Policy - Miran advocates for gradually increasing tariffs and lowering the dollar's exchange rate to promote the return of manufacturing to the U.S. and reduce trade deficits [4]. - He believes that the U.S. has a unique advantage in the global trade system, and tariff policies can effectively adjust trade structures and optimize economic layouts [4]. - Despite criticism from some economists, this approach has gained traction as a mainstream economic policy under the Trump administration [4]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Reform - Miran's proposals for reforming the Federal Reserve challenge existing governance structures, which he believes are too closed and lead to "groupthink" [4]. - Suggested reforms include allowing the President to dismiss the Fed Chair and board members at any time, shortening board terms, and increasing legislative oversight of the Fed's budget [4]. - While some scholars criticize these proposals for potentially undermining the Fed's independence, they reflect Miran's desire for a more flexible and responsive decision-making process to address complex economic challenges [4]. Group 5: Controversy and Criticism - Miran's views have not been universally accepted, facing strong opposition from economists like Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, who critiques his tariff and monetary policies [5]. - Krugman argues that Miran's policy framework is controversial and may not succeed in practice [5]. - Nonetheless, Miran's perspectives provide a new lens on U.S. economic policy, particularly regarding the balance between globalization and domestic economic interests, challenging traditional free trade notions [5].

Core Viewpoint - A new bill introduced by House Republicans aims to reform the Federal Reserve's dual mandate, focusing primarily on controlling inflation rather than maximizing employment and price stability [2][3]. Group 1: Legislative Changes - The "Price Stability Act of 2025" seeks to end the Federal Reserve's dual mandate established in 1977, which requires it to maximize employment and ensure price stability [2]. - House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill emphasized the need for a clear focus on inflation control to protect American households [2]. Group 2: Criticism of the Federal Reserve - Republican lawmakers argue that the Federal Reserve's expanding regulatory scope has hindered its ability to stabilize prices and threatens its independence [3]. - Treasury Secretary Becerra criticized the Federal Reserve's evolution since the 2008 financial crisis, claiming it has distorted financial markets and weakened its independence [5]. Group 3: Proposals for Reform - There are calls for a comprehensive review of the Federal Reserve's operations, including its monetary and regulatory policies, to enhance its independence and accountability [5][6]. - Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Walsh suggested a new agreement between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to clarify their goals and enhance independence [6]. Group 4: Public Trust and Future Meetings - Recent polling indicates that only 45% of Americans trust the Federal Reserve to manage the economy effectively, with 33% approving of Chairman Powell's performance [6]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, and the next policy meeting is scheduled for October 28-29 [7].