中国储能电池出口上半年同比暴涨174.6%！174.6%是什么概念？相当于你去年工资5000，今年直接飙到13730，老板还追着问 你"够不够花"。更离谱的是，这增长不是靠运气，是欧美日韩排着队拿钱来买，像春运抢票一样生怕抢不到。以前咱们卖双袜子都 被嫌弃质量差，现在卖储能电池，老外捧着钱求咱们"多生产点"。这背后到底藏着什么玄机？中国电池怎么突然就成了全球的"香 饽饽"？今天咱就掰开揉碎了聊，保证让你看清这场"能源革命"里，中国到底有多牛！ 一、储能电池暴增174%：不是老外傻，是他们真的离不开了 先看组数据：今年上半年，中国动力和其他电池总出口127.3GWh，同比增长56.8%。但你猜怎么着？其中储能电池（"其他电池"主 要部分）出口45.6GWh，同比暴涨174.6%，占总出口量的35.9%，比去年同期硬生生提高了17个百分点！而以前的"老大"动力电 池，出口才81.6GWh，增速只有26.5%，被储能电池甩了好几条街。 这就好比班里以前考第一的学霸（动力电池）突然发现，以前不起眼的同桌（储能电池）这次考试直接翻倍逆袭，老师（全球市 场）还一个劲儿夸"你同桌太牛了"。为啥储能电池突然这么火？答案就俩字 ...

上海期货交易所的铜期货合约突破7万6千元，交易员小张盯着分时图剧烈波动，惊呼："贸易商在疯抢 现货，有批到港铜被五次转手！" 这疯狂的价格波动，只是全球铜荒的冰山一角，其根源远比人们想象 的复杂和深远。 江西贵溪冶炼厂的熔炼炉喷射出炽烈的火焰，1500度高温熔融的铜水流入模具，铸成红光闪耀的阳极 板。然而，厂长在调度会上却重重地敲着桌子："原料库存预警！下周必须压减20%产能！" 原料短缺的 压力，正如同这熔炉的烈火般炙烤着中国乃至全球的铜产业链。 宁波港码头的起重机正卸下铜精矿货柜，褐红色的粉末从集装箱缝隙洒落，货代小刘在电话里焦急地争 吵："品质下滑还要扣款，这生意没法做了！" 这批来自南美的铜精矿，质量远低于合同约定，预示着 全球铜矿资源品质的持续下降。 佛山拆解厂的王老板用磁铁吸起废旧电机，暗红色的铜线在流水台闪烁。2023年中国产生500万吨含铜 废弃物，但正规回收商只拿到150万吨，巨大的回收潜力有待挖掘。深圳绿环公司新装的AI分拣机，机 械臂每小时拣出2吨废铜，"德国废铜回收率有60%，我们能做到就能多300万吨铜，"工程师调试着传感 器，充满希望。 刚果（金）科卢韦齐市的矿工营地里，紫金矿业安 ...

来源：倪卫涛 一、从"黄金跟班"到"顶流网红"：白银这波涨得有多疯狂？ 要说白银这玩意儿，以前在贵金属圈就是个"千年老二"，黄金涨它跟着涨点，黄金跌它跌得更狠，活脱脱一个"黄 金影子"。但今年不一样了，黄金还在慢悠悠爬坡，白银直接一脚油门踩到底，从年初的28美元/盎司一路飙到38 美元，涨幅比黄金还猛！Wind数据显示，不光期货现货价格创新高，连带着国内的投资银条、银币销量都同比激 增40%，有珠宝交易中心的负责人都说，6月份销售额比5月份涨了20%，现在客户进门就问"一公斤的银条还有 吗？"，跟买白菜似的。 为啥突然这么火？你去银行网点瞅瞅就知道，以前大妈们排队买金条，现在柜台前问银条的比问金条的还多。有 个银行朋友跟我吐槽："以前银条放仓库积灰，现在客户打电话预定，一开口就要10公斤，说是给儿子当'结婚储 备金'，比存现金靠谱。"不光散户疯，机构也在抢，全球最大的白银ETF持仓量最近蹭蹭往上涨，连咱们国家的 央行都在悄悄增持——今年前五个月，咱们央行买了200多吨白银，比去年全年还多！ 这场景是不是有点眼熟？2020年疫情那阵子，黄金涨上2000美元，白银也跟着冲到29美元，当时也是全民抢银 条，结果后来 ...

最后再给大家提个醒，美国这次加税虽然炒高了美铜，但对全球铜供应链的影响才刚刚开始。那些在美国有铜矿的公司，比如Freeport-McMoRan，最近 股价涨得那叫一个欢，但加拿大的矿商也在盯着美国市场，未来竞争肯定会更激烈。咱们作为中长线投资者，与其追着短期波动跑，不如把目光放长 远，多关注那些受益于新能源革命的铜企和相关基金。 不过，这波涨价能持续多久呢？咱们得从供需两头看。从供应端讲，美国想通过加税刺激本土铜矿开采，可铜矿从勘探到投产少说也得三五年，远水解 不了近渴。就拿智利来说，作为全球最大铜生产国，人家自己都面临缺水减产的问题，根本没法在短期内多给美国供货。再看需求端，现在全球都在搞 新能源革命，电动汽车、光伏电站、半导体哪个离得开铜？普华永道都发警告了，到2035年气候变化可能让全球32%的半导体产能面临铜供应中断风险。 这种情况下，铜价的长期支撑力可不容小觑。 对咱们投资者来说，这波行情该怎么把握呢？首先得明白，短期的关税炒作肯定会有波动，就像7月8日暴涨之后，9日价格又回落了2.75%。但从中长期 来看，铜的基本面依然强劲。长江证券的报告就指出，全球制造业已经盘整了两年多，一旦美联储降息带动经济 ...

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 1.1 背景 美联储连续降息至1%（2003年），叠加中国加入WTO后工业化加速，全球大宗商品需求 爆发，流动性泛滥。 1.2 标志性行情 铜： 从2002年低点1.5万元/吨飙升至2006年8.5万元/吨（涨幅超400%），主因中国电 网基建爆发性需求。 橡胶： 从2001年6000元/吨涨至2006年3万元/吨，受汽车产业扩张及东南亚供应紧张推 动。 1.3 转折点 来源 | 一德菁英汇 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 国内期货市场自成立以来，经历了多次显著的跌势转涨势行情，这些转折往往由宏观政 策、供需突变或地缘事件驱动。结合历史资料，以下是几波具有代表性的行情反转： 2001–2007年 大宗商品超级周期 2003年国内城镇化政策落地，需求预期逆转前期熊市。 2008–2011年 金融危机后的复苏与政策刺激 2.1 背景 2008年全球金融危机导致商品暴跌（铜半年内从6万至2万/吨），2009年中国推出"四万 亿"计划+宽松货币政策。 2.2 标志性行情 棉花： 2008年低点1万元/吨暴涨至2010年3.3万元/吨，因新疆减产与纺织业复苏。 螺纹钢： 2009年初 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a structural rally driven by industrial demand and financial attribute recovery, with spot silver prices surpassing $36 and reaching a 13-year high [1][3]. Market Driving Logic: Dual Dynamics of Supply-Demand Gap and Policy Window - Industrial demand is reconstructing the price system, with silver consumption in the photovoltaic sector expected to grow significantly, leading to a projected supply-demand gap of 149 million ounces by 2025 [3][4]. - The financial attributes of silver are recovering, with a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which is expected to provide upward momentum for silver prices [4]. Trading Strategy: Risk Control and Tool Selection in a Volatile Market - A combination of trend tracking and range trading is recommended, with specific signals identified for bullish trends when silver prices break certain resistance levels [5]. - A multi-dimensional risk control system is in place to manage extreme market conditions, ensuring efficient order execution and minimal slippage [6]. Platform Selection: Differentiated Advantages of Compliance Ecosystem and Technological Innovation - The trading platform offers a rapid trading experience with execution speeds as low as 0.01 seconds, enhancing user efficiency during volatile market conditions [9]. - Cost structure optimization is achieved through a "zero commission + ultra-low spread" strategy, significantly reducing trading costs for high-frequency traders [10]. - Full-chain compliance guarantees are established, ensuring traceability and independent fund storage, which mitigates the risk of fraudulent transactions [11]. Outlook for the Second Half of the Year: Capitalizing on Dual Dividends of Supply-Demand Gap and Policy Shift - The period around the Federal Reserve's September meeting is identified as a critical window for potential investment in silver, with recommendations to build positions if the gold-silver ratio falls below 80:1 [12]. - Long-term strategies suggest increasing silver allocation in core asset portfolios to 10%-15%, aligning with global central bank trends [12].

一、供需格局重构：工业需求成为核心引擎 近期白银市场呈现出显著的结构性机会。据和讯网 6 月 25 日行业分析，在供需缺口扩大与金银比修复的双重催化下，2025 年三季度白银价格有望突破 10000 元 / 千克（对应美白银 42 美元 / 盎司）。截至 7 月 3 日，伦敦银现报 36.601 美元 / 盎司，沪银主连站稳 8845 元 / 千克关口，较月初涨幅达 1.01%，显 示市场对白银的中长期价值形成共识。 面对复杂的市场环境，投资者需构建科学的交易框架。以金盛贵金属 MT5 平台为例，其提供的斐波那契线、布林带等专业指标，可帮助投资者捕捉伦敦银 突破 34.5 美元 / 盎司箱体震荡上沿的多头信号。当市场出现短期压制（如美联储鹰派表态）时，平台支持的黄金 - 白银跨品种对冲功能，能有效降低波动风 险 —— 通过实时监控品种相关性，动态调整持仓结构，在 6 月白银连续创新高期间，部分用户通过日内 T+0 交易实现单日超 5% 收益。 美联储降息周期开启预期下，金银比价（当前约 91:1）正加速向历史均值（40-70:1）回归。白银作为 "穷人的黄金"，其价格弹性显著高于黄金，在降息环 境下更易获得资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that energy is the fundamental structure shaping civilization and geopolitics, with a focus on the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy in the 21st century [1][4][9]. Energy Transition and Its Implications - The 19th century was dominated by coal, which established Britain's global manufacturing supremacy [2]. - The 20th century saw oil as the key resource, enabling the United States to maintain its position as the world's leading economy through extensive use and control of fossil fuels [3]. - The article raises questions about how renewable energy will reshape the world both materially and geopolitically in the 21st century [4][6]. Renewable Energy Developments - The transition to renewable energy is characterized by a fundamental shift in energy production models from centralized to distributed systems, allowing households to generate power [11][12]. - Smart grids will replace traditional grids, creating a new "energy internet" and redefining energy infrastructure [13]. - The manufacturing ecosystem will undergo a complete transformation, with industries moving towards electrification and new production cost structures emerging [14][19]. Geopolitical Shifts - The article discusses the potential weakening of the petrodollar system as renewable energy transactions may bypass dollar settlements, impacting traditional energy-exporting nations [24][25]. - China is positioned as a leader in the renewable energy supply chain, controlling over 70% of global photovoltaic capacity and 60% of wind power capacity, which could lead to a shift in geopolitical power dynamics [26]. - The competition for setting new energy standards, similar to the 5G standard battle, will have significant implications for global influence [27]. Conclusion - The article concludes that the 21st century is moving away from fossil fuels, and the ability to dominate the renewable energy landscape will shape global power structures for the foreseeable future [28].

中国AI赋能能源革命： 从智能预测到储能革新，引领全球绿色转型 【Oilprice 网 6月30日报道】 中国正大规模将人工智能融入能源领域，以提升整体效率、保障国家能源安全。 随着风能和太阳能等可变可再生能源快速扩张，人工智能广泛应用于更精准地预测能源供需。 人工智能还通过改进电池设计、安全性能和管理策略，显著提升能源存储水平。 中国正加速将人工智能深度融入能源体系，以提升能源效率并筑牢国家能源安全防线。从能源存储管理到更精准地预测能源供需，大语言模型能推动能源 系统整体更智能化、精细化，减少能源浪费。 早在2020年，国有天然气巨头中国燃气控股有限公司就已利用人工智能来更精准地预测天然气需求中复杂且动态的变化。这些由AI模型能够综合历史数 据和实时信息，运算速度远超人工。 然而，随着中国电网中可再生能源占比不断上升，预测问题变得更加棘手，也更为关键。中国在可再生能源部署方面领先全球。仅在5 月，中国电网新增 太阳能和风能发电量就与波兰整国的电力产能相当。随着中国不断打破自身的可再生能源纪录，其电网对可变能源的依赖度大幅增加，因此也更受天气变 化影响。因此，实现精准能源预测对国家能源安全至关重要。 为此，中 ...

Core Insights - The rural renewable energy sector has the potential to provide approximately 730 million tons of standard coal equivalent annually, which is 12 times the current total energy consumption in rural areas of China [1] - The rural energy revolution is seen as a critical pathway for achieving China's dual carbon goals and rural revitalization strategy, requiring a coordinated approach at the national level [2][4] - The unique advantages of the rural energy revolution stem from the abundant renewable resources and the urgent demand for clean energy in rural areas, where over 55% of energy consumption still relies on coal [3][5] Group 1: Strategic Importance - The rural energy revolution is a key component of national strategy, as highlighted in the report from the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China [2] - Experts emphasize that the rural energy revolution must integrate energy supply security, agricultural development, and ecological governance [1][4] Group 2: Resource Potential - China has significant potential for distributed photovoltaic technology, with over 2 billion kilowatts of potential capacity, and rural rooftops alone can contribute over 800 million kilowatts [3] - The annual production of agricultural straw is approximately 790 million tons, and livestock manure amounts to about 3.05 billion tons, indicating a vast resource base for renewable energy [3] Group 3: Challenges and Structural Issues - Despite the strategic clarity and resource abundance, the rural energy sector faces structural contradictions, including a disconnect between energy production and rural development [4][6] - The overproduction of renewable energy in rural areas exceeds local consumption capacity, leading to a situation where rural areas generate green electricity but lack local utilization channels [5][6] Group 4: Mechanism and Technological Innovations - Mechanism innovation and technological empowerment are essential for overcoming current challenges, with cooperative models showing promise in restructuring benefits [7][8] - Multi-energy complementarity is identified as an effective approach to enhance economic feasibility and reduce energy costs in rural energy development [7][8] Group 5: Policy and Implementation - Recent policies, such as the "Thousand Villages and Ten Thousand Villages Wind Action" and "Thousand Households Sunlight Action," have been implemented to facilitate rural energy transformation [4] - There is a need for a comprehensive rural low-carbon/zero-carbon building standard and improved energy statistical accounting systems to support the transition [9]