证券研究报告 2026年03月02日 机械设备 太空光伏行业深度3： 从国内卫星制造产业链&价值链拆解展开 评级：推荐(维持) 张钰莹(证券分析师) S0350524100004 zhangyy03@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -19% -6% 8% 22% 35% 49% 2025/02/28 机械设备 沪深300 《机械行业专题报告：日系品牌摩托车系列2川崎：摩托车FY2023全球市占 率≈1%（推荐）*机械设备*张钰莹》——2026-02-25 《机械行业专题报告：日系品牌摩托车系列4本田：摩托车全球市占率40%如 何拆解？（推荐）*机械设备*张钰莹》——2026-02-25 《机械行业专题报告：日系品牌摩托车系列3铃木：摩托车FY2023全球市占 率≈4%（推荐）*机械设备*张钰莹》——2026-02-25 相对沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 机械设备 | 4.5% | 25.6% | 38.3% | | 沪深300 | 0.1% | 4.3% | 18.7% | 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和 ...

摘要：太空光伏被视为未来能源革命的终极方案。在这一前沿领域，碲化镉薄膜光伏技术正展现出令人振奋的应用潜力。本文系统分析了CdTe电池在太 空场景中的核心优势——极高的单位质量功率、卓越的抗辐射性能、优异的热稳定性，并结合英国研究团队的最新进展，深入探讨了其技术应用可能性、 面临挑战及未来发展方向。研究认为，CdTe技术有望打破III-V族多结电池在航天市场的长期垄断，为商业航天与深空探测提供全新的能源选择。 太空能源革命的新变量 在距离地球数百公里的轨道上，太阳辐照强度是地面的1.4倍，且不受昼夜变化影响。这使得太空光伏被视为人类能源革命的终极方案之一。随着SpaceX 星链等卫星星座的扩张，以及半导体、光纤等太空制造业务的兴起，欧洲空间局预测，太空太阳能需求将从目前每年仅1兆瓦峰值跃升至2035年的每年10 吉瓦峰值。 这一爆发式增长对航天能源系统提出了全新要求：更轻、更抗辐射、更经济。长期以来，III-V族多结电池因其30%左右的高转换效率而统治航天市场，但 其制造复杂、成本高达500元/W的弊端，严重限制了技术的可扩展性。晶硅电池虽成本低廉，但抗辐射能力不足，难以满足长寿命任务需求。 在这一背景下，碲化 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is currently focused on "anti-involution," with expectations that the supply-demand gap will gradually narrow by 2026, leading to a potential price recovery across the industry chain [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The photovoltaic industry has experienced significant price declines since 2023, resulting in widespread losses across the main industry chain and increased financial strain on companies due to extended payment terms and rising bad debts [1] - A temporary surge in photovoltaic installations is anticipated in early 2025 due to policy influences, but a significant drop in domestic grid-connected projects is expected after June 2025, leading to a market vacuum [1] - The establishment of a storage platform by leading companies indicates efforts to address the price inversion in the silicon material sector, with stricter energy consumption standards likely to phase out excess capacity [2] - The supply of polysilicon is expected to decrease significantly in 2025 compared to peak levels in 2023 and 2024, supporting price stabilization [3] Segment Analysis - **Polysilicon Segment**: Production is expected to decline after reaching a peak in October, with a strong consensus on maintaining stable prices due to proactive supply-side reductions [3] - **Wafer Segment**: New capacity additions are expected to slow significantly starting in 2025, with demand growth also tapering off, leading to improved price conditions through inventory reduction [3] - **Battery Segment**: Supply-side capacity is not expected to increase significantly, focusing instead on efficiency and cost optimizations, with potential growth in the market for BC batteries driven by decreasing costs [3] - **Module Segment**: The module industry has entered a phase of low profitability, but cost optimization efforts by leading companies may lead to a recovery in gross margins as supply-side adjustments take effect [4] Emerging Technology Focus - The industry is increasingly interested in space photovoltaics, which convert solar energy into electricity in space environments, providing a reliable power source for spacecraft [4][5] - Space photovoltaics offer significant advantages, including stable energy supply unaffected by atmospheric conditions and low maintenance requirements, making them ideal for long-term missions [5] - The global competition in commercial space and the demand for low Earth orbit satellites are expected to drive growth in space photovoltaic applications [6] - Major companies like SpaceX and Google are actively developing space-based data centers, which could further enhance the demand for space photovoltaics [7] Technical Developments - Current battery technologies for space photovoltaics include gallium arsenide, crystalline silicon, and perovskite batteries, each with distinct advantages and limitations [7][8] - Gallium arsenide batteries are favored for their high efficiency and durability, while crystalline silicon batteries are gaining attention for their lower production costs and suitability for low Earth orbit applications [8]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, with coal and space photovoltaic concepts showing significant activity. However, the rebound in coal stocks is primarily a result of overselling, while the space photovoltaic sector may have more sustainable growth due to ongoing positive developments and performance reversals [1][2][10]. Group 1: Coal Sector Analysis - The coal sector saw a notable increase, with indices such as the central enterprise coal index rising by 6.23% and the coal mining selection index by 5.93% [3][11]. - Despite the surge, 19 out of 27 companies in the coal industry have projected a decline in performance for 2025, indicating a lack of fundamental support for the rebound [2][11]. - The operational strategy for coal stocks should be closely monitored, particularly in relation to the performance forecasts for the first quarter of 2026 [2][11]. Group 2: Space Photovoltaic Sector Analysis - The space photovoltaic sector is showing stronger fundamentals, with nearly 50% of companies in the photovoltaic equipment industry expected to achieve performance growth by 2025, a significant increase compared to previous years [2][12]. - Notable stocks in the space photovoltaic sector include Zhonglai Co. and Zerun New Energy, which have reached "20CM" and "10CM" daily limits, respectively, indicating strong market interest [2][12]. - The space photovoltaic index has also shown a year-to-date increase of 31.04%, reflecting robust investor sentiment [3][12]. Group 3: Technological Developments in Space Photovoltaics - Space photovoltaic cells are categorized into three main types: gallium arsenide, crystalline silicon, and perovskite cells, each with distinct advantages and challenges [5][15]. - The efficiency of gallium arsenide cells is high but comes with a high cost, while perovskite cells offer flexibility and low theoretical costs but face stability issues [5][15]. - Crystalline silicon cells, although less efficient, are currently the most cost-effective option and are gradually replacing gallium arsenide in low-cost satellite applications [5][15]. Group 4: Company Developments and Performance Forecasts - Companies like Canadian Solar (阿特斯) are actively developing technologies related to space photovoltaics, including HJT technology and perovskite/HJT tandem cells, achieving significant advancements in efficiency [16][17]. - The company has reported a research and development efficiency exceeding 27.6% and a mass production efficiency of over 27.30%, positioning it at the forefront of the industry [16][17]. - Five companies are projected to see their performance double by 2025, with the fastest growth expected from Dingjide (鼎际得), forecasting a net profit increase of 171.15% to 206.73% [8][20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the speculative nature of the recent surge in the stock price of Tuojin New Energy, driven by Elon Musk's mention of "space data centers" at Davos, leading to significant trading activity and volatility [1][2] - Tuojin New Energy is a comprehensive player in the photovoltaic industry with vertical advantages, which has allowed it to withstand industry challenges better than others, supported by its historical experience supplying silicon batteries for satellites [1] - Despite the hype around its "space business," the company has not secured new satellite orders recently, and its financial performance has been poor, with a projected net profit of only over 30 million yuan for 2023 and 2024 combined, and a revenue drop of 27.23% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [1][2] Group 2 - The company has plans for a perovskite battery production line, which is set to trial this year; however, trial production does not guarantee mass production or profitability, indicating a long road ahead for the company to realize any significant contributions from this line [2] - The current stock price increase appears to be driven more by speculative capital rather than solid performance metrics, with investors more focused on the narrative rather than the company's actual financial health [2]

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk's proposal for "space solar power" at the Davos Forum presents a significant opportunity for the solar industry, which has been struggling with overcapacity, to potentially access a new market [1][2]. Group 1: Space Solar Power Feasibility - The concept of space solar power (SSP) is not new, with research ongoing for decades by organizations like NASA and the European Space Agency [5]. - Recent advancements in commercial space have shifted energy system demands from "hundreds of watts" to "tens and hundreds of kilowatts" [6][7]. - Musk's initiative aims to establish 100 GW of solar capacity in the U.S., with a portion dedicated to space and data centers, equating to about a quarter of the U.S. global electricity supply [9]. Group 2: Technical Requirements for Space Solar Power - The development of space solar power is not merely an extension of terrestrial solar power but requires a different evaluation system focused on power, reliability, and manufacturability [15]. - Three main technological routes are emerging: III-V multi-junction systems, low-cost silicon modifications, and perovskite-based systems [16][18][21]. - The III-V multi-junction cells are preferred for their high efficiency and controlled degradation in space, while silicon modifications aim for lightweight and radiation-resistant solutions [16][18]. Group 3: Beneficiaries in the Space Solar Power Industry - The initial beneficiaries in the space solar power supply chain will be companies that provide foundational substrates and core epitaxy technologies [25]. - As projects scale, the focus will shift towards equipment and production lines, with companies capable of modular and automated production gaining a competitive edge [27]. - The differentiation in technology accumulation will lead to varied revenue outcomes, with only a few companies becoming significant players in the space energy system contracting [30].

Group 1: Solar Energy and Commercial Space - The rapid development of commercial space will significantly benefit solar energy, which is the only reliable energy source in commercial space, with solar intensity being 5-10 times higher than ground photovoltaic systems, leading to a substantial increase in power generation [2][35] - Companies like SpaceX have cost advantages in rocket launches, fostering the development of commercial scenarios such as low-orbit satellite internet and future space data centers, where domestic manufacturers with cost and technical advantages in silicon and perovskite technologies will play a crucial role in energy supply [2][35] - The demand potential for space data centers is large, with the current mainstream route being gallium arsenide, while silicon and perovskite technologies are continuously improving in cost and efficiency, making them viable alternatives [3][36] Group 2: Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - If Elon Musk's goal of deploying 100GW of AI computing power in space is achieved, it could lead to a demand increase for 680,000 satellites annually, compared to the current global stock of just over 10,000 satellites, indicating a massive market opportunity [3][36] - Recommended companies to focus on include Junda Co., JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, Dongfang Risheng, and GCL-Poly Energy, which are well-positioned to capitalize on the growth in space photovoltaic applications [2][35] Group 3: Kuaishou-W and AIGC Video Market - Kuaishou is expected to see revenue growth from 142 billion to 170.1 billion CNY from FY25 to FY27, with adjusted net profits increasing from 20.6 billion to 28.1 billion CNY during the same period [5][6] - The global video streaming market is projected to reach 214.6 billion USD in FY25, with AI video penetration expected to reach 10%, indicating a total addressable market (TAM) of 25 billion USD for AI video [6][7] - Kuaishou's integration of technology, ecosystem, and monetization is expected to unlock long-term value, with significant revenue contributions from professional users [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The market potential brought by space data centers is enormous, with crystalline silicon and perovskite battery technologies becoming key [2]. - The rapid development of commercial aerospace will benefit space photovoltaics significantly, as solar energy is the only reliable energy source in commercial aerospace, with solar irradiance in space being approximately 5-10 times that of ground photovoltaics [3][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Space Photovoltaics in Commercial Aerospace - Solar energy is a massive energy source, with the sun radiating energy equivalent to 130 trillion tons of coal annually, making it the largest exploitable energy source [7]. - Space photovoltaics are not affected by atmospheric interference, with solar irradiance around 1360 W/m², which is about 1.4 times that of ground photovoltaics [8]. 2. Successful Commercialization of Satellite Internet - Low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites have broad commercial application prospects, characterized by low transmission delays and costs, making them suitable for satellite internet applications [20]. - Companies like SpaceX's Starlink have successfully deployed LEO satellite constellations, enhancing global internet access [22]. 3. Development Opportunities - The mainstream energy solution in space is currently gallium arsenide (GaAs), but crystalline silicon and perovskite technologies are gaining traction due to their cost and efficiency improvements [48]. - The demand for space data centers is expected to grow significantly, with companies exploring the use of crystalline silicon and perovskite layered solutions [5]. 4. Market Outlook - If Elon Musk's goal of deploying 100 GW of AI computing power in space is achieved, it could lead to a demand for 680,000 satellites annually, compared to the current global stock of just over 10,000 satellites [5]. 5. Related Companies - Companies to watch in this sector include Junda Co., JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, Dongfang Risheng, and GCL-Poly Energy [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating has been upgraded to "Recommended" [1][10] Core Insights - The demand for solar energy in space is expected to surge, with significant equipment orders anticipated to materialize [3][7] - The shift from traditional power sources to computational infrastructure in space is likely to create new application scenarios for crystalline silicon batteries [7] - The U.S. domestic solar capacity is currently insufficient, with only 5.0 GW for silicon wafers, 3.2 GW for solar cells, and 64.8 GW for modules, indicating a substantial capacity gap [7] - Elon Musk's plan for 100 GW of solar capacity in space and another 100 GW on the ground is expected to drive high demand for solar production equipment [7][10] - The global satellite layout is accelerating, with a projected 329 rocket launches and 4,522 satellite launches in 2025, marking increases of 25% and 58% respectively [7] - Space solar power is identified as the only reliable energy source for satellites, with solar wings accounting for 60% of satellite energy system costs [7][8] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The photovoltaic equipment sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a 12-month performance of 59.5% compared to 23.6% for the index [5] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on solar equipment suppliers such as Maiwei Co., Jiejia Weichuang, and Aotwei, as well as battery suppliers like Junda Co. and Dongfang Risheng [10][11]

人民财讯1月23日电，拓日新能（002218）1月23日在互动平台表示，公司的晶硅电池产品在多年前曾供 应过商业卫星使用，但近期并未签订此类业务领域的新订单，未来公司也将继续关注不同的光伏应用场 景，持续研发，满足客户需求。 ...