钙钛矿产业化 belike......20251120 摘要 晶科光电计划在 2025 年底实现钙钛矿组件效率超过 20%，并于 2026 年将冠军组件效率提升至 27%以上，目前产线设计产能为 500 兆瓦， 采用大尺寸（1.15 米 x2.4 米）组件，节拍为 40 秒/片，目标成本为每 瓦 1.1~1.2 元。 目前 FTO 玻璃是材料成本中占比最高的，边框成本受铝价影响相对稳定， 胶膜也有一定降本空间，公司采用 PIN 反射结构，通过 ALD、涂布和真 空蒸镀等工艺提高效率和稳定性，综合使用多种设备以适应不同动画材 料。 晶科光电暂缓扩建新的 500 兆瓦生产线，将视市场需求而定，预计新增 产线投资 4~5 亿元人民币，成本有望降低 10%。2025 年示范项目以 单结组件为主，规模约几十兆瓦，2026 年将主推叠层组件。 晶科光电认为叠层组件的衰减与单结组件相差不大，承诺 15 年质保期， 并已获得 TV 蓝报告和三倍加盐测试认证报告，正在进行叠层稳定性认 证，预计年底出报告。 Q&A 晶科光电在钙钛矿组件方面的最新进展如何？目前产线的运行情况如何？ 今年（2025 年）10 月底，我们晶科光电的激 ...

（原标题：沈文忠：晶硅电池技术仍有很长的生命周期） 21世纪经济报道记者 曹恩惠、实习生余名伟 成都报道 11月19日，由南方财经全媒体集团指导、21世纪经济报道主办、中国国际光伏与储能产业大会组委会支 持的2025第八届中国国际光伏与储能产业大会暨21世纪·新能新质绿色能源发展论坛在成都隆重召开。 最后，提及钙钛矿技术，沈文忠认为单结钙钛矿是没有竞争力的，与晶硅电池叠层是必由之路。 沈文忠进一步围绕晶硅技术的不可替代性、非银金属化突破方向，以及TOPCon、BC、异质结三大主流 电池技术的竞争与协同，为"十五五"及更长周期光伏产业技术方向的发展提供了思考路径。 沈文忠指出："晶硅的优势是非常明显的，未来十年，乃至更长时间内，我们看不到比晶硅更好的技 术。" 目前，光伏若要继续维持成本优势，需要进一步聚焦晶硅技术的优化。沈文忠介绍，目前，我国已全面 掌握硅提纯技术，硅料产能超300万吨，目前晶硅电池市场占比98%，是维持光伏低价的核心技术载 体。"但在当前晶硅电池成本中，银金属化占比极高，银价直接影响光伏的成本优势，所以未来五年一 定是无银化、贱金属化，金属化的铜、铝、镍等是一个发展趋势。" 沈文忠特别指出， ...

Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a phase adjustment in 2025, reflecting supply-demand imbalances and chaotic competition, yet the underlying demand for global energy transition remains strong due to climate goals and energy security [1][3] - Future opportunities will favor companies with integrated capabilities in technology, systems, and globalization, capable of innovation and adapting to local policies [2] Industry Trends - In China, renewable energy has transitioned from being an "auxiliary power source" to a "main power source," marking a significant change in the energy structure [3] - The global photovoltaic installed capacity is projected to grow from 150 GW in 2020 to nearly 600 GW in 2025, indicating a fourfold increase over five years, significantly outpacing other energy forms [3] - By 2025, global photovoltaic installations are expected to surpass coal power for the first time, establishing photovoltaics as the dominant source of new electricity generation [3] System Integration and Storage - The industry is shifting focus from merely increasing installed capacity to enhancing system integration and consumption capabilities [4] - Energy storage is becoming increasingly critical, with the consensus that "solar and storage are inseparable," as it helps stabilize photovoltaic output and supports high-quality renewable energy development [4] Market Dynamics - The U.S., China, and Europe remain the core engines for global photovoltaic and storage development, each undergoing different policy and market transformations [5][6] - In China, the photovoltaic market is experiencing a "high peak and subsequent decline" trend, with new installed capacity facing pressure due to policy changes and market integration [5] - The European market is witnessing a surge in demand for photovoltaic and household storage, particularly after significant power outages in Spain and Portugal, leading to increased focus on grid stability [6] Global Competitive Landscape - Despite challenges such as trade barriers and policy uncertainties, the U.S. remains a high-value market for renewable energy, with long-term demand expected to remain strong [6] - Emerging markets like Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and parts of Africa are showing robust growth potential in the photovoltaic sector, becoming new hotspots for global industry layout [6] - China's renewable energy industry maintains a solid global competitive edge, supported by a comprehensive ecosystem that includes raw material supply, advanced manufacturing, and talent reserves [6] Technological Advancements - Continuous technological iterations are occurring, including breakthroughs in silicon battery efficiency and improvements in energy density for storage systems, which are driving deeper decarbonization of the energy sector [7]

Company Overview - Tongwei Co., Ltd. was established in 1995 and is headquartered in Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China, controlled by Tongwei Group Co., Ltd. It has developed into a key national enterprise in agricultural industrialization, a major global producer of aquatic feed, high-purity crystalline silicon, and a leading manufacturer of crystalline silicon solar cells [2] - As of December 2024, the company operates over 200 subsidiaries worldwide, employs nearly 60,000 people, and has an annual feed production capacity exceeding 10 million tons. The annual production capacity of high-purity silicon exceeds 900,000 tons, with solar cell capacity exceeding 150 GW and module capacity over 90 GW. The company has developed 56 photovoltaic power stations based on the "fishing-solar integration" model, with a cumulative installed capacity of 4.67 GW [2] Supply Chain Management - Tongwei Co., Ltd. views supply chain management as a core pillar of sustainable development, aiming to create an equal, respectful, transparent, and collaborative environment to promote environmentally friendly, socially inclusive, and well-governed development goals [3] - The company strictly adheres to domestic laws such as the Environmental Protection Law and Labor Law, as well as international standards like RBA Code of Conduct and ILO conventions. By 2024, the signing rate of social responsibility commitment letters and compliance letters among major raw material suppliers in the photovoltaic manufacturing sector reached 100%, achieving full compliance coverage [3] ESG Risk Management - The company has established an ESG risk management mechanism throughout the supplier lifecycle, including key indicator audits for environmental management and labor rights during the admission phase, implementing a "zero tolerance clause" for non-compliance. During the cooperation period, a dual-dimensional tracking system for EHS and ESG is employed to dynamically monitor sustainable development performance [3] - For non-compliance issues, a closed-loop management process is executed, requiring a "7-day rectification plan submission + 3-month improvement deadline," ensuring that ESG risks in the supply chain are controllable and traceable throughout the process [3] Certification and Compliance - Tongwei Co., Ltd. has built a full-process traceability capability from photovoltaic modules to silicon mines, verified by independent third-party audits (STS Senergy, TÜV Rheinland). The company became the first to pass TÜV Rheinland's audit with an A-level or above rating across all processes, with the highest AA-level certification for modules, wafers, rods, and silicon materials [4] - In the field of conflict mineral management, the company strictly follows the UN Global Compact and OECD guidelines, actively promoting suppliers to complete the CMRT conflict mineral survey to ensure the legality and compliance of raw material sources from the outset [4] Sustainable Development Initiatives - In 2025, at the German Photovoltaic Exhibition, Tongwei Co., Ltd. officially launched the "Global Sustainable Partner Program," aimed at global suppliers, channel partners, end customers, industry associations, and certification bodies, focusing on green supply chain collaboration, information platform integration, and public welfare cooperation to build a long-term win-win green development ecosystem [4] Expert Commentary - Experts highlight Tongwei Co., Ltd.'s outstanding performance in supply chain responsibility, noting the establishment of an internal management mechanism for supply chain traceability, which has achieved traceability capabilities from components to silicon mines. The signing rate of social responsibility commitment letters among major raw material suppliers in the photovoltaic manufacturing sector has reached 100%, demonstrating strong supply chain management capabilities [5]

Group 1 - The core process of metallization in photovoltaic cell production is crucial for current extraction, impacting conversion efficiency, cost, and long-term reliability [2][5] - The main metallization techniques include contact methods (such as screen printing) and non-contact methods (like laser transfer and copper plating) [3][5] Group 2 - The evolution of silicon cell metallization has transitioned from vacuum deposition in the 1940s-50s to multi-layer deposition and copper/nickel plating in the 60s-70s, driven by aerospace demands [4] - Since the 1980s, screen printing with silver and aluminum pastes has dominated, but rising silver prices and increased competition have led to the emergence of copper as a cost-reducing alternative [5] Group 3 - Challenges in the industrialization of copper pastes include oxidation due to copper's reactivity, which can compromise electrical conductivity [6] - Solutions to prevent copper oxidation involve using protective gases to limit oxygen exposure and applying protective coatings on copper particles [6]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **perovskite solar cell industry** and its advancements compared to traditional silicon solar cells (referred to as "金规" or "gold standard") [1][9][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Production Progress**: The perovskite production lines are gradually being established, although the overall progress is slower than initially expected. The industry is still making continuous advancements, particularly with the help of AI in material research [1][2]. 2. **Efficiency Improvements**: - Perovskite cells are approaching their theoretical efficiency limits, with laboratory efficiencies reaching 27.7% and commercial efficiencies around 25-26%. The theoretical maximum for perovskite cells is 33.7% [2][10]. - Multi-junction (叠层) perovskite cells are recognized as a promising technology, with potential efficiencies exceeding 30% [3][10]. 3. **Cost Competitiveness**: The cost of perovskite modules is currently low, with prices around 0.6 yuan per watt, while traditional silicon modules are priced between 1-2 yuan per watt [3][4]. 4. **Market Demand**: The overall demand for solar energy is expected to grow at a rate of 5-10% annually, indicating a stable market for both perovskite and silicon technologies [9]. 5. **Stability Concerns**: Stability issues associated with perovskite cells have been largely addressed, with many leading manufacturers successfully testing their products in outdoor conditions over several years [5][29]. 6. **Production Capacity**: The industry is witnessing the establishment of gigawatt-scale production lines, with several companies, including 京东方 and 极电光, already operational [4][18]. 7. **Future Outlook**: The perovskite industry is expected to see significant growth in production capacity and efficiency over the next few years, with projections indicating a potential for costs to drop below 0.8 yuan per watt as production scales up [6][37]. Additional Important Insights - **Technological Advancements**: The transition from traditional silicon cells to perovskite technology is marked by the development of multi-junction cells, which combine perovskite with silicon to enhance efficiency [20][24]. - **Market Segmentation**: Perovskite cells are positioned to compete in niche markets due to their advantages in low-light conditions and flexibility, making them suitable for applications like building-integrated photovoltaics [22][13]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies involved in perovskite production, such as 杭州科林 and 巨石化学, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their established production capabilities [45][48]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, focusing on the advancements and future potential of the perovskite solar cell industry.

Group 1 - The perovskite battery sector has seen significant stock price increases, with a sector index rise of 3.74% from July 6 to July 8, and a cumulative increase of 7.48% over the past seven trading days [1] - Perovskite tandem batteries have surpassed the efficiency limits of single-junction cells, with theoretical efficiency limits of 33% for single-junction perovskite cells and over 40% for perovskite tandem cells, compared to 28.7%, 28.5%, and 29.1% for TOPCon, HJT, and IBC cells respectively [1][2] - The perovskite battery technology is entering the industrialization phase, with leading companies establishing GW-level production lines, and at least three such lines expected to be operational by 2025 [2][3] Group 2 - Perovskite batteries offer multiple advantages over traditional silicon cells, including higher theoretical conversion efficiency, lower production costs, better stability in various environmental conditions, and diverse application fields [2] - The market for perovskite battery equipment is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2026 and could surpass 900 billion yuan by 2030 [2] - Companies like LONGi Green Energy and Shenzhen Jiejia Weichuang Energy Equipment Co., Ltd. are actively involved in the research and development of perovskite solar cell technologies, with LONGi having achieved a conversion efficiency of 34.85% for its perovskite and silicon experimental cells [3][4]

Summary of Perovskite Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The perovskite solar cell industry is experiencing significant advancements, with laboratory efficiencies reaching 27% and leading manufacturers achieving module efficiencies exceeding 18%-19% [1][2][4] - Current mass production efficiency stands at approximately 26.36%, with expectations for tandem module efficiencies to surpass 30% [1][2][4] Key Points Efficiency and Cost - Perovskite solar cells have a theoretical efficiency limit of 30.3%, while current laboratory efficiencies are at 27% [4] - The cost of perovskite modules is below 0.8 yuan per watt, compared to approximately 0.6 yuan per watt for crystalline silicon [1][2][4] - The potential for higher efficiency and aesthetic appeal positions perovskite cells favorably in the market [2][4] Production Capacity and Market Development - Major companies like BOE and Jidian Energy are set to launch gigawatt-level production lines in the second half of the year, with additional lines expected from companies like GCL and CATL in the following year [1][2][3] - By 2030, the production capacity of perovskite cells is projected to reach 40-50 gigawatts, corresponding to a market space of nearly 400 billion yuan [2][28] Stability and Reliability - Stability issues that previously hindered perovskite cells have largely been resolved, with leading manufacturers accumulating three to four years of operational experience through outdoor testing [1][3][17] - Current outdoor station performance shows that perovskite cells can outperform equivalent crystalline silicon cells by over 10% in weak light conditions [19][20] Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite advancements, the industry faces challenges such as high costs for key equipment and the need for time to achieve large-scale production [5][28] - The investment for gigawatt-level production lines is currently estimated at 700-1,000 million yuan, but costs are expected to decrease to below 500 million yuan as technology improves [5][28] Additional Insights Market Dynamics - The perovskite solar cell production process is shorter and more efficient than that of crystalline silicon, allowing for faster scaling [22] - The materials market, including glass and encapsulation materials, is projected to reach hundreds of billions of yuan, with FTO glass alone expected to have a market space of 80-90 billion yuan by 2030 [29] Company Developments - Companies such as GCL, CATL, and others are actively pursuing advancements in perovskite technology, with GCL planning to launch its first gigawatt-level production line this year [30][32] - The A-share market is seeing increasing involvement in the perovskite sector, with companies like Jin Jing Technology and Yao Pi leading in FTO glass production [31][34] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on the entire perovskite supply chain, from battery components to equipment and materials, with particular attention to leading manufacturers and emerging companies in the sector [34]