螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/9/30 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人 不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,072.00 | -25↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1873832 | -52807↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -132445 | +38386↑ RB1-5合约价差(元/吨) | -56 | +2↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 291546 | +15608↑ HC2601-RB2601合约价差(元/吨) ...

免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,097.00 | -17↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1926639 | -49906↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -170831 | +50336↑ RB1-5合约价差(元/吨) | -58 | -1↓ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 275938 | -2412↓ HC2601-RB2601合约价差(元/吨) | 192 | -7↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,290.00 | -10↓ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,374 | -10↓ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,320.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,220.00 | 0.00 | | | RB 主力合约基差 (元/吨) | 193.0 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,109.00 | -14↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1867674 | +88845↑ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -201324 | +14583↑ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -47 | 0.00 | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 242840 | +8223↑ HC2601-RB2601合约价差(元/吨) | 233 | +7↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,250.00 | -10↓ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,333 | -10↓ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,280.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,210.00 | -10↓ | | | RB 主力合约基差 (元/吨) | 141.00 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the RB2601 contract decreased with increasing positions. In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing market demand. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar increased, with a capacity utilization rate of 48.35%. Market sentiment was weak, and downstream buyers mainly purchased on - demand, while inventory continued to rise. Overall, the steel market was mixed, with significant technical pressure, and the mainstream positions increased short positions, leading to weak futures prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were operating at low levels. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,115.00 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the position volume was 1,633,714 lots, up 203,931 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 211,528 lots, down 27,137 lots. The RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 76 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. The RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 211,538 tons, up 12,041 tons. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 188 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,270.00 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,354 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,290.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,220.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 155.00 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 120.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 760.00 yuan/wet ton, down 18.00 yuan. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,590.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,950.00 yuan/ton, down 40.00 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 137.63 million tons, down 821,800 tons. The coke inventory of sample coking plants was 397,100 tons, up 3,300 tons. The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.1012 million tons, up 4,300 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.18%, down 0.16 percentage points. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.00%, down 0.27 percentage points. The billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.2836 million tons, up 122,700 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of rebar from sample steel mills was 2.2056 million tons, up 59,100 tons. The capacity utilization rate of rebar from sample steel mills was 48.35%, up 1.30 percentage points. The inventory of rebar in sample steel mills was 1.6962 million tons, down 49,100 tons. The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.5377 million tons, up 212,600 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 70.83%, unchanged. The domestic crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, down 353,000 tons. The monthly output of Chinese rebar was 1.658 million tons, up 140,000 tons. The net export volume of steel was 939,000 tons, up 18,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The National Real Estate Climate Index was 93.34, down 0.25. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 1.60%, down 1.20 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 12.00%, down 0.80 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 3.20%, down 1.40 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.38731 billion square meters, down 5.41 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, down 4.842 million square meters. The unsold housing area was 40.536 million square meters, up 285,000 square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - Since August, 13 domestic steel mills have released maintenance information. Shougang Jingtang plans to shut down a 5500m³ blast furnace from August 31 to September 3, about 48,000 tons of hot metal production will be affected. Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.2%, down 0.16 percentage points from the previous week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.02%, down 0.23 percentage points from the previous week; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4013 million tons, down 6,200 tons from the previous week [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On Tuesday, the RB2510 contract continued to decline. Macroscopically, Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing macro - policy implementation efficiency, responding to market concerns, and stabilizing market expectations while boosting effective investment. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased slightly. High - temperature and rainy weather affected demand, inventory continued to increase, and apparent demand declined. Overall, rebar demand was weak in the off - season, and tariff disturbances affected market sentiment again, with low downstream purchasing enthusiasm and weak overall transactions. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were moving downward. The operation suggestion was to be bearish in a volatile market, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price was 3,126.00 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan; the position was 1,608,694 lots, down 1,199 lots - RB contract's top 20 net position was - 108,548 lots, up 12,257 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 82 yuan/ton, unchanged - RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 135,449 tons, up 15,137 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 290 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,320.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,405 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,280.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan - The RB main contract basis was 194.00 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread was 170.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 764.00 yuan/wet ton, down 12.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,535.00 yuan/ton, unchanged - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 3,050.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan - The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 13,819.27 million tons, up 107.00 million tons; the sample coking plant's coke inventory was 39.05 million tons, down 5.31 million tons - The sample steel mill's coke inventory was 609.78 million tons, down 9.52 million tons; the Tangshan billet inventory was 112.52 million tons, down 2.84 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.57%, down 0.20%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.24%, up 0.17% - The sample steel mill's rebar output was 220.45 million tons, down 0.73 million tons; the sample steel mill's rebar capacity utilization rate was 48.33%, down 0.16% - The sample steel mill's rebar inventory was 172.26 million tons, up 4.06 million tons; the 35 - city rebar social inventory was 414.93 million tons, up 26.45 million tons - The independent electric arc furnace steel mill's operating rate was 71.88%, unchanged; the domestic crude steel output was 7,966 million tons, down 353 million tons - China's rebar monthly output was 1,658 million tons, up 140 million tons; the steel net export volume was 939.00 million tons, up 18.00 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.34, down 0.25; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 1.60%, down 1.20% - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 12.00%, down 0.80%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 3.20%, down 1.40% - The cumulative value of housing construction area was 638,731 million square meters, down 5,410 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 35,206 million square meters, down 4,842 million square meters - The commercial housing unsold area was 40,536.00 million square meters, up 285.00 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - In July 2025, China's excavator output was 24,732 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. From January to July 2025, China's excavator output was 205,299 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.1% - In July 2025, China's rebar output was 1,518.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 11,338.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the RB2510 contract fluctuated widely. The global manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the Asian manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month but remaining above 50% for three consecutive months. The weekly output of rebar increased significantly this period, with a capacity utilization rate of 48.49%. Inventories continued to rise, and apparent demand turned from decline to increase. Overall, steel mills have good profits, production enthusiasm has increased, the macro - expectation is positive, and with the strong operation of coking coal, there is cost - side support. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels. The operation suggestion is to go long on dips and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,231.00 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the position volume was 1,628,167 lots, down 24,402 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 59,090 lots, up 34,080 lots. The RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 73 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan. The RB warehouse receipt at the SHFE was 93,491 tons, up 4,235 tons. The HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 209 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,487 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 169.00 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 100.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 773.00 yuan/wet ton, down 1.00 yuan. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,535.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,250.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 3,090.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 136.579 million tons, down 1.3248 million tons. The coke inventory of sample coking plants was 462,800 tons, down 35,200 tons. The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.2678 million tons, down 132,200 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, down 0.56 percentage points. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.22%, up 4.34 percentage points. The billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.1536 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar from sample steel mills was 2.2118 million tons, up 101,200 tons. The capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills for rebar was 48.49%, up 2.22 percentage points. The inventory of rebar in sample steel mills was 1.682 million tons, up 60,500 tons. The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.8848 million tons, up 43,400 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, up 1.04 percentage points. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1.688 million tons, up 30,000 tons. The net export volume of steel products was 938,400 tons, up 17,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.60, down 0.11. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.02 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 303.64 million square meters, down 71.81 million square meters. The inventory of commercial housing for sale was 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2]. Industry News - According to customs data on August 7, in July 2025, China's steel exports were 9.836 million tons, an increase of 158,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%. From January to July, the cumulative steel exports were 67.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. In July, China's steel imports were 452,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8%. From January to July, the cumulative steel imports were 3.476 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7%. The actual rebar output this period was 2.2118 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 101,200 tons; the steel mill inventory was 1.682 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,500 tons; the social inventory was 3.8848 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,400 tons; the total inventory was 5.5668 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 103,900 tons; the apparent demand was 2.1079 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 73,800 tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core View On Wednesday, the RB2510 contract fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The China Iron and Steel Association's meeting focused on "controlling production capacity, countering involution, strengthening collaboration, and promoting transformation." In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased slightly, with a low capacity utilization rate of 46.27%. The apparent demand declined, and inventory increased. Overall, the steel market is in the off - season with falling demand, but positive macro - expectations and rising coal and coke prices provide cost support. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows a low - level rebound. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,234 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the position was 1,652,569 lots, down 56,263 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 93,170 lots, up 89 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 75 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 89,256 tons, up 893 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 217 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,390 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,477 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,400 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 156 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 120 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 774 yuan/wet ton, down 4 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,535 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 136.579 million tons, down 1.3248 million tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory was 462,800 tons, down 35,200 tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory was 6.2678 million tons, down 132,200 tons; the Tangshan billet inventory was 1.1102 million tons, up 41,000 tons. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, down 0.56 percentage points [2] Industry Situation - The sample steel mill rebar output was 2.1106 million tons, down 9,000 tons; the rebar capacity utilization rate was 46.27%, down 0.20 percentage points; the sample steel mill rebar inventory was 1.6215 million tons, down 35,200 tons; the 35 - city rebar social inventory was 3.8414 million tons, up 111,700 tons. The independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate was 69.79%, up 1.04 percentage points; the domestic crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons; the Chinese rebar monthly output was 1.688 million tons, up 30,000 tons; the steel net export volume was 921,000 tons, down 89,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.60, down 0.11; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.02 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 303.64 million square meters, down 71.81 million square meters; the commercial housing inventory was 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2] Industry News - The new "C50 Wind Direction Index" shows that the market expects government bonds to support an increase in new social financing in July, with the substitution effect potentially causing the new loan scale to turn negative, but the growth rate remains high. In late July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.8 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.982 million tons, a 7.4% daily decline; 20.41 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.856 million tons, a 4.5% daily decline; and 23 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.091 million tons, a 0.5% daily increase [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Monday, the RB2510 contract decreased with reduced positions. Macroscopically, Politburo member and Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27th to 30th. Previously, steel prices rose due to positive expectations, but after the double - coke limit - down, market optimism faded and spot trading weakened. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows DIFF and DEA adjusting downward with an enlarged green bar. The operation strategy is to be bearish in a volatile market, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,248 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan; the position volume is 1,935,881 lots, down 62,771 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 5,938 lots, down 14,774 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread is - 41 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - The RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 84,440 tons, down 3,587 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread is 149 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,430 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) is 3,518 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan [2]. - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,470 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) is 3,340 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - The basis of the RB main contract is 182 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan; the spot spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 50 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 774 yuan/wet ton, down 5 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,315 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 3,090 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 137.9038 million tons, up 51,700 tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 498,000 tons, down 56,200 tons [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.4 million tons, up 9,100 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 1.0692 million tons, up 33,000 tons [2]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.78%, down 0.14 percentage points [2]. - The output of rebar at sample steel mills is 2.1196 million tons, up 29,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills is 46.47%, up 0.64 percentage points [2]. - The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.6567 million tons, down 74,300 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 3.7297 million tons, up 28,100 tons [2]. - The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 68.75%, up 5.21 percentage points; the monthly output of crude steel in China is 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of Chinese rebar is 1.688 million tons, up 30,000 tons; the net export volume of steel is 9.21 million tons, down 890,000 tons [2]. 3.5下游情况 - The national real - estate climate index is 93.60, down 0.11; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion is 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points [2]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion is - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points [2]. - The cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.02 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 303.64 million square meters, down 71.81 million square meters [2]. - The unsold area of commercial housing is 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2]. 3.6行业消息 - On July 27th, coke prices in markets such as Weifang, Binzhou, Dezhou, Jining, Zaozhuang, Heze, Rizhao, Tai'an, and Linyi are planned to increase. The price of tamping wet - quenched coke will increase by 50 yuan/ton, the price of tamping dry - quenched coke will increase by 55 yuan/ton, and the price of top - charged coke will increase by 75 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on July 28th [2]. - According to Mysteel research, last week, steel mill overhauls decreased compared with the previous week, and the scale of resumption of production expanded. This week's output may increase, and it is estimated that the output affected by production line overhauls this week is 133,800 tons [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the RB2510 contract increased in price with reduced positions. Macroscopically, steel enterprises in central and western regions strengthen self - discipline in production control, meeting the requirements of breaking the "involution" put forward by the central government and enhancing industry self - discipline. There are positive expectations for supply, and combined with the strong upward movement of furnace materials, the cost side supports the relatively strong operation of rebar futures prices. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar continues to decline, and the capacity utilization rate drops to 45.83%; the apparent demand for rebar declines, and the total inventory ends its continuous decline. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are operating at a high level. The operation suggestion is to conduct bullish trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,307.00 yuan/ton, up 83 yuan; the position volume of the RB main contract is 2,024,507 lots, down 71,405 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 24,665 lots, down 19,656 lots; the spread between the RB10 - 1 contract is - 60 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 86,534 tons, unchanged. The spread between the HC2510 - RB2510 contract is 170 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight, yuan/ton) is 3,420.00 yuan, up 50 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight, yuan/ton) is 3,508 yuan, up 51 yuan. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight, yuan/ton) is 3,450.00 yuan, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight, yuan/ton) is 3,330.00 yuan, up 50 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract is 113.00 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the spot spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 30.00 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 783.00 yuan/wet ton, down 6.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei (market price; yuan/ton) is 1,265.00 yuan, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (ex - tax, yuan/ton) is 2,240.00 yuan, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei is 3,120.00 yuan/ton, up 60.00 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 137.8521 million tons, up 193,200 tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 554,200 tons, down 43,500 tons. The inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.3909 million tons, up 11,200 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 1.0362 million tons, up 60,900 tons. The blast furnace operation rate of 247 steel mills is 83.48%, up 0.35 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.92%, up 1.05 percentage points [2] 3.4产业情况 - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills is 2.0906 million tons, down 76,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills is 45.83%, down 1.66 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.731 million tons, down 77,800 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 3.7016 million tons, up 106,700 tons. The operation rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 63.54%, up 3.12 percentage points; the monthly output of domestic crude steel is 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars is 1.688 million tons, up 30,000 tons; the net export volume of steel is 921,000 tons, down 89,000 tons [2] 3.5下游情况 - The national real estate climate index is 93.60, down 0.11. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment completion is 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion is - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.02 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 303.64 million square meters, down 71.81 million square meters. The unsold area of commercial housing is 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2] 3.6行业消息 - In June, the total export volume of domestic steel billets was 1.1757 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.33% and a year - on - year increase of 280.19%. From January to June, the total export volume of domestic steel billets was 5.8922 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 300.31%. On the morning of July 19, the groundbreaking ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held in Nyingchi City, Tibet Autonomous Region. The project will build 5 cascade hydropower stations with a total investment of about 12 trillion yuan [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On Monday, the RB2510 contract increased in price with higher trading volume. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that a stable growth work plan for ten key industries including steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals is about to be introduced. The weekly output of rebar continued to decline, with the capacity utilization rate dropping to 45.83%. During the consumption off - season, terminal demand was average, social inventory increased significantly, and the total inventory ended its consecutive decline. Overall, the apparent demand for construction steel decreased during the off - season, but positive policy expectations in the macro - aspect, combined with rising furnace materials, supported the upward movement of rebar futures prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were rising. The operation strategy is to conduct bullish trading while paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,224 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan; the trading volume was 2,095,912 lots, up 20,122 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 5,009 lots, down 3,976 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 53 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 86,534 tons, down 897 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 170 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,370 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,456 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,260 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 146 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 70 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 789 yuan/wet ton, up 12 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 3,060 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 137.8521 million tons, up 193,200 tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 554,200 tons, down 43,500 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.3909 million tons, up 11,200 tons; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, up 0.35 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.92%, up 1.05 percentage points; the inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.0362 million tons, up 60,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills was 2.0906 million tons, down 76,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 45.83%, down 1.66 percentage points; the inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.731 million tons, down 77,800 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.7016 million tons, up 106,700 tons; the operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 63.54%, up 3.12 percentage points; the monthly output of domestic crude steel was 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese rebar was 16.88 million tons, up 300,000 tons; the monthly net export volume of steel was 9.21 million tons, down 890,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.60, down 0.11; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment was 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points; the cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.02 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 303.64 million square meters, down 71.81 million square meters; the inventory of commercial housing for sale was 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2]. Industry News - On July 21, 2025, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year and above LPR was 3.5%. On July 19, the groundbreaking ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [2].