Core Points - The Japanese government approved a comprehensive economic plan worth 21.3 trillion yen to support the economy and consumers affected by inflation, marking the largest stimulus since the pandemic [1][2] - The plan includes 17.7 trillion yen in general account spending, 2.7 trillion yen in tax cuts, and 900 billion yen in special account spending, with a significant focus on addressing rising inflation [1][3] - Inflation has exceeded the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 43 consecutive months, with real wages declining for over two years, making cost of living a primary concern for voters [2][5] Economic Measures - The plan allocates 2 trillion yen for local priority support subsidies, allowing local governments to determine the use of funds, including 400 billion yen for rice vouchers and shopping coupons [1][2] - An additional 500 billion yen is designated to subsidize residents' electricity and gas bills for the first three months of the following year [1] Debt and Market Concerns - The economic plan requires parliamentary approval and is expected to rely heavily on debt financing, with anticipated government bond issuance exceeding 6.69 trillion yen from the previous year [3][4] - Concerns about public debt expansion have intensified, with the 10-year government bond yield nearing 1.8%, the highest since 2008, and the 30-year yield surpassing 3.3% [3][4] Expert Opinions - Some economists argue that while large-scale fiscal stimulus is necessary to prevent economic stagnation, there are worries that injecting substantial funds into an already inflation-pressured market could exacerbate inflation [5][6] - Critics highlight that temporary measures like rice vouchers may not address the root causes of inflation and could delay necessary structural reforms [5][6]

智通财经APP注意到，市场对日本新任首相高市早苗的热情已然消退：过去一周东京上市公司市值蒸发约1270亿美元，日元和政府债券亦大幅下跌。 虽然消费者有理由为她开启疫情以来最大规模额外支出计划而欢呼，但投资者却担心日本可能正在透支财力。他们同时还担忧，日本央行短期内加息以抑制 通胀的可能性正在降低。 一些大型资产管理公司已开始瞄准日本债务市场的弱点，而日元则持续低迷，自10月初高市早苗赢得自民党总裁之位以来，日元已成为兑美元表现最差的主 要货币。 突显政府面临挑战的是，交易员周五基本上无视了财务大臣片山皋月的警告，她提醒投机者当局可能会干预汇市以支撑本币。 "市场对日本官员的言论正在变得不敏感，"澳大利亚国民银行外汇策略师罗德里戈·卡特里尔表示，并补充说日元正变成一种"玩物"。"有坚实的宏观理由证 明日元走弱是合理的。" 在股市，风险已超出与刺激措施相关的紧张情绪。周五日本股市被席卷亚洲的跌势波及，科技股遭遇重挫。 在上月高市早苗掌权时上涨后，包含日本许多大型出口商和科技公司的日经225指数本周收跌3.5%。更广泛的东证指数下跌1.8%。 纵观东京所有上市公司，本周市值损失约20万亿日元，相当于1270亿美元。 ...

环球时报消息，据美国彭博社11月21日报道，德意志银行警告称，日本首相高市早苗的大规模财政支出计 划，已导致日本国债和日元汇率同步大跌，反映出市场担忧该计划将恶化日本财政状况，引发外界对资本 外逃失控的担忧，并让人联想起2022年特拉斯出任首相时英国爆发的国债市场危机。 日本首相高市早苗（左）与英国前首相特拉斯（资料图）图源：外媒 报道称，日本政府即将公布新冠疫情以来最大规模的支出刺激计划，规模或将高达21.3万亿日元（约合人 民币9610亿元），远超市场预期。因此，日本10年期国债收益率已升至数十年来的最高位，30年期国债收 益率已升至3.35%以上，而本月初约为3%。日元汇率跌至今年1月以来最低水平，逼近可能触发日本央行 干预的区间。而在日本央行维持"鸽派"立场背景下，市场担心大规模支出措施将进一步恶化日本政府财政 状况。 德意志银行全球外汇研究主管乔治·萨拉维洛斯警告，如果日本国内对政府和日本央行维持低通胀承诺的信 心丧失，购买日本国债的理由将不复存在，随之将可能导致更具破坏性的资本外逃。 编辑：吴思 责编：王光建 审核：杨四海 萨拉维洛斯将当前相关市场动向与2022年英国的"特拉斯风暴"作类比。当时， ...

Core Insights - Deutsche Bank warns that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's large-scale fiscal spending plan has led to a significant drop in both Japanese government bonds and the yen, raising concerns about the worsening fiscal situation in Japan and potential capital flight [1][2] Group 1: Fiscal Spending Plan - The Japanese government is set to announce its largest fiscal stimulus plan since the COVID-19 pandemic, potentially reaching 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 961 billion RMB), which exceeds market expectations [1] - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield has risen to its highest level in decades, while the 30-year yield has surpassed 3.35%, up from about 3% earlier this month [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The yen has fallen to its lowest level since January, nearing a threshold that could trigger intervention from the Bank of Japan [1] - Concerns are mounting that the large-scale spending measures will further deteriorate Japan's fiscal health, especially as the Bank of Japan maintains a dovish stance [1] Group 3: Historical Comparisons - The current market dynamics are being compared to the "Truss storm" in the UK in 2022, where a proposed tax cut plan led to investor panic and a collapse in the bond market, resulting in the pound hitting a 37-year low [2]

据美国彭博社11月21日报道，德意志银行警告称，日本首相高市早苗的大规模财政支出计划，已导致日本国债和日元汇率 同步大跌，反映出市场担忧该计划将恶化日本财政状况，引发外界对资本外逃失控的担忧，并让人联想起2022年特拉斯出 任首相时英国爆发的国债市场危机。 日本首相高市早苗（左）与英国前首相特拉斯（资料图）图源：外媒 德意志银行全球外汇研究主管乔治·萨拉维洛斯警告，如果日本国内对政府和日本央行维持低通胀承诺的信心丧失，购买日 本国债的理由将不复存在，随之将可能导致更具破坏性的资本外逃。 萨拉维洛斯将当前相关市场动向与2022年英国的"特拉斯风暴"作类比。当时，时任英国首相特拉斯提出的减税计划引发投 资者恐慌，几乎摧毁了英国债券市场，英镑兑美元汇率跌至37年最低点。特拉斯上任仅40多天就辞职，成为英国历史上 的"最短命"首相。 责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 报道称，日本政府即将公布新冠疫情以来最大规模的支出刺激计划，规模或将高达21.3万亿日元（约合人民币9610亿 元），远超市场预期。因此，日本10年期国债收益率已升至数十年来的最高位，30年期国债收益率已升至3.35%以上，而 本月初约为3%。日元汇率跌至今 ...

Group 1 - Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks on Taiwan and historical issues are seen as detrimental to regional stability and Japan's own interests [1] - Takaichi's policies are perceived as neglecting public welfare while aligning closely with the U.S., aiming for military expansion despite high inflation in Japan, which may lead to risks of yen depreciation and economic instability [1] - Criticism from mainstream media, the public, and opposition parties suggests that her rhetoric is inciting war and undermining trust with neighboring countries, raising concerns about her administration's future [1] Group 2 - The Japanese tourism industry is facing significant challenges due to a surge in cancellations of Chinese tourist bookings, with cancellations reaching 70% of overall orders within two days [3] - Hokkaido, a key destination for Chinese tourists, is experiencing a notable decline in visitor numbers, impacting local businesses such as hotels and tour services [3][4] - Predictions indicate that the cancellation of Chinese tourist bookings could lead to a reduction in Japan's tourism revenue by approximately 1.79 trillion yen (about 11.5 billion USD) over the next year, potentially decreasing Japan's GDP by 0.29% [4] Group 3 - The cancellation of the trilateral cultural minister meeting between China, Japan, and South Korea is attributed to rising tensions following Takaichi's comments, with China condemning her statements as harmful to regional cooperation [5] - The Nikkei 225 index fell by 2.4% to 48,625.88 points, marking a weekly decline of 3.48%, with significant drops in major stocks, particularly in the AI sector [5] Group 4 - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that the central bank must consider the impact of a weak yen on import costs and inflation, suggesting potential tightening of monetary policy to support the yen [7] - Concerns are raised about the volatility in the Japanese market, which is perceived as more alarming than recent fluctuations in the U.S. stock market, with warnings of potential capital flight if investor confidence wanes [7]

大跌之时别恐慌！ 昨晚，美股尾盘大跳水，今早亚太股市全线暴跌。虚拟币市场更是发出强烈的空头指引。A股和港股开盘，也是大幅杀跌。全球流动性似乎出现了问题。 从根源上看，美联储的预期管理和日本国债市场动荡，是本轮全球市场杀跌的主要源头。就这刚刚，这两大变量皆出现了有利于市场演绎的积极信号。 全线杀跌 若从外围寻找本轮杀跌之根源，无非就是美联储降息预期下降和日本国债持续杀跌。但今天早上，这两大变量都出现了一些积极转变。 从美国的方向来看，虽然，摩根士丹利周四撤销了其关于美联储将在12月会议上降息25个基点的预测，但今天早上，美国财长贝森特表示，美联储发出了很多 信号，其中一些令人困惑。美联储应该关注数据，美联储应该继续推进降息周期。美股三大期指也是全线反弹。 | 名称 ▼ | 月 ▼ | | | 、 | | | 时间 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | = US 30 | | 45,958.50 | 45,986.00 | 45,717.30 | +206.20 | +0.45% | 10:16:02 9 | | = US 500 | | ...

德意志银行全球货币研究主管George Saravelos指出，高市早苗的支出刺激计划已导致日本国债和日元汇率暴跌，引发了人们对无序资本 外逃的担忧，这正让人联想起2022年那场几乎摧毁英国债券市场的动荡。 行情数据显示，日元汇率与日本国债本月几乎同步大跌。其中，美元兑日元周四一度触及157.89，刷新了今年1月以来的最高位，逼近可能 触发日本央行干预的区间。自从9月以来，日元已在G10货币中领跌；与此同时，日本10年期国债收益率本周早些时候也进一步跃升至了17 年来的最高位。 不少业内人士表示，日本债汇市场的"双杀"危局，反映出市场担忧日本新首相高市早苗的巨额刺激计划将恶化该国财政状况。 Saravelos对此就深感忧虑，他将当前相关市场的动向与2022年英国遭遇的"特拉斯风暴"危机相提并论——当时，时任英国首相的特拉斯提出缺乏资 金支持的减税计划令投资者惊慌，导致英镑暴跌至37年低点，英国国债市场几乎崩溃…… Saravelos在最新评论中指出："令人担忧的是，日元和日本国债名义价格长期走势均开始与任何公允价值衡量标准脱钩，且日内相关性正在 加速增强。" 他警告称， "若日本国内对政府和日本央行低通胀承诺 ...

日本金融市场正上演一场"股债汇三杀"的风暴。德银发出警告称，当前日本市场的动荡比近期美国股市的波动更令人担忧，让人联想到2022年几 乎摧毁英国债市的危机，一场潜在的资本外逃风险正在积聚。 市场动荡在周四加剧。日经225指数低开低走，跌幅一度接近3%。个股方面，软银股价大跌11%，创下近期新低；铠侠股价盘中一度重挫16%。 与此同时，日元汇率跌至今年1月以来的最低水平，逼近可能引发日本央行干预的警戒线。 法国兴业银行全球策略师Albert Edwards也表达了类似的担忧，他将日本长期债券收益率的攀升形容为"极少被投资者重视的重大警示信号"。分 析师们警告，如果投资者对日本政府和央行维持低通胀的承诺失去信心，抛售日本资产的理由将变得充分，可能引发更具破坏性的资本外流。 债券市场同样承压，30年期日本国债收益率已升至数十年来的高位。 这一系列连锁反应的核心，源于市场对日本新政府财政政策的深切忧虑。据报道，日本政府计划推出自疫情以来最大规模的财政支出方案。德银 货币研究全球主管George Saravelos表示，这项庞大的刺激计划，叠加日本央行持续的鸽派立场，正引发市场对日本财政状况恶化的担忧，并动摇 投资者对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The $20 billion aid plan from the U.S. to Argentina is seen as a controversial move that primarily benefits hedge funds heavily invested in Argentine assets, rather than the Argentine economy itself [1][2][9]. Group 1: U.S. Aid and Market Reactions - Argentina's recent midterm election results, where President Milei's party secured 41% of the votes and 64 seats in the House, have provided a crucial endorsement for his aggressive austerity policies, easing concerns for U.S. officials [1][4]. - Following the election, the Argentine peso appreciated by approximately 4%, and the 2046 U.S. dollar-denominated government bonds rose by 11 cents to about 67 cents, while the benchmark Merval index surged by 22% [4][6]. - U.S. mutual funds and ETFs hold about $5 billion in Argentine sovereign debt, with major players like Pimco, Fidelity, and BlackRock heavily invested [1][5]. Group 2: Criticism of the Aid Mechanism - Critics, including economist Paul Krugman, have labeled the aid as a "scam" designed to bail out hedge funds, suggesting that U.S. taxpayer money is merely propping up the peso to allow these funds to sell their Argentine assets at inflated prices [2][8]. - The U.S. Treasury is still deliberating on the collateral that Argentina can provide to protect U.S. taxpayers from potential losses, delaying the disbursement of the aid [2][7]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Future Prospects - Investors are optimistic about the potential for a rebound in Argentine assets, with some already increasing their positions in Argentine pesos and dollar-denominated bonds ahead of the elections [5][6]. - If President Milei can successfully implement his economic turnaround plans, mutual funds and hedge funds could see even greater returns on their investments [6][11]. - The aid is intended to stabilize Argentina's fiscal situation and may help replenish dwindling foreign exchange reserves needed for upcoming debt repayments [10].