美联储米兰：量化宽松政策在过去可能被过度使用了。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's new Prime Minister, Sanna Takashi, is set to establish a multi-year fiscal target to allow for more flexible spending, signaling a shift away from strict fiscal consolidation commitments amid ongoing economic challenges such as aging population, rising prices, and high government debt [1][2]. Fiscal Policy Changes - Takashi has abandoned the idea of using annual basic fiscal surplus as a target for fiscal consolidation, opting instead for a multi-year approach, which some market participants interpret as paving the way for increased fiscal spending [2]. - The current government aims to achieve a basic fiscal surplus by the end of the fiscal year 2026, but previous administrations have repeatedly postponed this goal due to extensive spending plans [2][3]. - Takashi has not ruled out the possibility of reducing Japan's consumption tax, reinforcing expectations that her government will prioritize economic stimulus over improving deteriorating public finances [2]. Economic Stimulus Plans - The Japanese government is drafting an economic strategy focused on three pillars: addressing living costs and inflation, crisis management investment, and strengthening defense and diplomatic capabilities [4]. - The proposed economic measures may include tax incentives for 17 key industries, including artificial intelligence and semiconductors, to stimulate investment, although there are concerns about the broad scope of these sectors [4][5]. - The scale of the economic stimulus plan is under scrutiny, with expectations that it may exceed the approximately 13.9 trillion yen (about 641.72 billion RMB) budget for the fiscal year 2024 [4]. Structural Economic Challenges - Japan faces significant structural economic issues, including an aging population, which accounts for over 29% of the population aged 65 and older, leading to decreased consumption capacity and market demand [7]. - Rising prices have created financial strain on urban residents, impacting public trust in the government and presenting a political challenge for Takashi's administration [7]. - Japanese companies have struggled with innovation, particularly in technology sectors like the internet and artificial intelligence, falling behind competitors from the US and China [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the suspension of RMB futures trading on the London Metal Exchange is part of a strategic move to undermine the RMB's pricing power, coinciding with the U.S. government's upcoming quantitative easing policy and the formation of a key minerals alliance among ten countries [1][3][7] Group 2 - The U.S. economy is facing significant challenges, including government shutdowns affecting over 30 million people, large-scale layoffs in Wall Street and Silicon Valley, and liquidity issues in bank margin accounts, making quantitative easing a potential solution to reverse the situation [3][5] - The London Metal Exchange's sudden announcement to halt RMB and other non-USD currency futures trading cites "insufficient liquidity and low trading activity," despite data showing that RMB-denominated copper futures had an average daily trading volume of 357,000 contracts in 2024, increasing to 482,000 contracts in the first half of 2025, indicating that the liquidity claim is questionable [5][7] Group 3 - The U.S. aims to leverage quantitative easing to raise global metal prices and eliminate the RMB pricing system from the market, thereby reinforcing the dollar's dominance in key mineral pricing [7] - To counter this situation, it is crucial for major global buyers to reduce reliance on a single currency and actively promote a diversified currency settlement system, enhancing cooperation with other economies in key mineral sectors and exploring new pricing mechanisms [7]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing declines in various asset classes including cryptocurrencies, gold, and both US and AH stocks [1] - The SOFR-IORB spread is highlighted as a key indicator for assessing market recovery; a failure to narrow quickly may necessitate urgent repurchase activities and quantitative easing policies [2] - Predictions suggest that the government shutdown will be resolved around mid-November, specifically between November 10 and November 15, which could restore liquidity and lead to asset recovery [2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the government will reopen within two weeks, which would restore liquidity and facilitate asset recovery [2] - A bold prediction indicates that the government shutdown will be resolved by November 15, with a subsequent 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, potentially leading to a favorable market environment during the holiday season [2]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing significant volatility, with recent declines raising concerns about the end of the gold bull market, as analysts draw parallels to historical price movements [1][3][5]. Price Movements - On October 28, gold prices fell below $3,900, marking a decline of over 10% from the high of $4,381 on October 20 [1]. - The current price drop mirrors the historical patterns observed in 2011, where gold prices also experienced sharp declines after reaching significant highs [5][19]. Technical Analysis - Technical analyst Torsten warns that gold prices may continue to decline to around $3,500 in November, citing historical trends where gold prices have retreated significantly after breaking the 200-week moving average [3][17]. - Historical data indicates that gold has never experienced ten consecutive weeks of price increases, suggesting a potential for a downturn after the recent nine-week rally [5][16]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is showing signs of panic, similar to the reactions seen in 2011 when gold prices fell below key psychological levels [6][11]. - In 2025, the Gold Cycle Indicator reached an extreme level, indicating market overbuying, which often precedes a market correction [12][14]. Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, including U.S.-China trade conflicts and instability in the Middle East, are contributing to the volatility in gold prices, similar to the conditions in 2011 [11][9]. - The potential easing of geopolitical tensions, such as the recent ceasefire agreements, could temporarily reduce the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [12][11]. Central Bank Actions - Central banks are continuing to increase their gold reserves, with China adding 28.04 tons in the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a long-term trend of "de-dollarization" [16]. - The ongoing demand from central banks is expected to provide a structural support for gold prices, contrasting with the more volatile retail investor sentiment [16][14]. Future Projections - Analysts predict that if historical patterns repeat, gold prices could drop to around $3,500 by the end of November, reflecting a potential 20% decline from recent highs [17][19]. - Support levels for gold prices are identified at $4,180-$4,150, with a critical support level at $4,100, which aligns with historical technical significance [19].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates again during the upcoming meeting on October 28-29, with a probability of 97.3% for a 25 basis point cut, as indicated by the latest Beige Book report and comments from Fed officials [1][5]. Economic Conditions - The latest Beige Book indicates a slight decline in overall consumer spending, while employment levels remain stable across regions. However, many employers are reducing staff through layoffs or natural attrition due to weak demand and ongoing economic uncertainty [2][4]. - The report highlights that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are contributing to rising overall inflation, with businesses struggling to balance absorbing costs versus passing them on to consumers [3][4]. Employment Market - The Beige Book notes that while the overall employment level is stable, many regions report increased layoffs or natural attrition. This is attributed to weak demand, persistent economic uncertainty, and increased investment in artificial intelligence [4][6]. - Some companies are finding it easier to recruit, while others still face challenges in hiring, indicating a mixed labor market [4]. Consumer Spending - Recent consumer spending has shown a slight decline, although luxury goods and travel expenditures from high-income groups remain strong. In contrast, middle and low-income groups are increasingly relying on discounts and promotions [4]. Federal Reserve Officials' Comments - Fed Governor Stephen Miran emphasized the need for a rate cut due to increased economic uncertainty from trade tensions, suggesting that the current policy has become more restrictive than previously thought [6]. - Miran supports the idea of two more rate cuts by the end of the year and has previously advocated for a larger cut of 50 basis points rather than just 25 [6]. Market Expectations - Financial markets are betting heavily on a rate cut in October, with only a 2.7% chance of maintaining the current rate and a 94.2% chance of cumulative cuts of 50 basis points by December [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates again during the meeting on October 28-29, with a probability of 97.3% for a 25 basis point cut, as indicated by the latest economic conditions report and comments from Fed officials [2][8]. Economic Conditions - The latest Beige Book report shows a slight decline in overall consumer spending, while employment levels remain stable across regions. However, many employers are reducing staff through layoffs or natural attrition due to weak demand and ongoing economic uncertainty [4][6]. - The report, based on information collected until October 6, highlights the importance of the Beige Book in analyzing future monetary policy trends, especially amid delays in key economic data due to government shutdowns [5]. Inflation and Tariffs - The report indicates that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are contributing to rising overall inflation, with businesses struggling to balance absorbing costs versus passing them on to consumers. The term "tariff" appeared 64 times in the latest report, down from 100 times in August [6]. - Some companies are maintaining prices to remain competitive, while others have fully passed on higher import costs to consumers [6]. Labor Market Insights - The Beige Book notes that while the overall employment level is stable, many regions report increased layoffs or natural attrition, driven by weak demand, persistent economic uncertainty, and increased investment in artificial intelligence [6]. - Companies still hiring report that recruitment has become relatively easier, although some sectors continue to face labor shortages [6]. Consumer Spending Trends - Recent consumer spending has shown a slight decline, with high-income groups still spending robustly on luxury goods and travel, while middle- and low-income groups are increasingly relying on discounts and promotions [6]. Federal Reserve Officials' Comments - Fed officials, including Stephen Miran, emphasize the need for a rate cut due to increased economic uncertainty from trade tensions, suggesting that the current policy has become more restrictive than previously thought [8][9]. - Miran supports the idea of two more rate cuts by the end of the year, indicating that a reduction of up to 1.25 percentage points is realistic [9].

Group 1 - ShuoBeide expects a net profit growth of 1258.39% to 1313.24% year-on-year for the first three quarters [1] - Sanhua Intelligent Control denies rumors of receiving a large order for robots [1] Group 2 - In September, China's social financing increased by 3.53 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans of 1.29 trillion yuan [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to increase the scale of private charging facility construction [2] - By the end of 2027, the National Development and Reform Commission aims to build 28 million charging facilities to meet the charging needs of over 80 million electric vehicles [2] - Guangdong Province's pig-to-grain price ratio has entered a warning zone for excessive decline [2] - Cloudwalk, a hotel delivery robot company, saw a 53.77% increase in dark trading, earning 2570 HKD per hand [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, emphasizes the need for the Federal Reserve to exercise caution in using quantitative easing (QE), likening it to the careful use of antibiotics. She does not advocate for the Fed to reduce its balance sheet or abandon the ample reserves system, highlighting that QE reform is a critical consideration for the next Federal Reserve Chair [1]. Group 1 - The Federal Reserve should be cautious in implementing quantitative easing policies [1] - There is no support for reducing the Fed's balance sheet or abandoning the ample reserves system [1] - QE reform is an important factor for the next Federal Reserve Chair to consider [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Yellen, emphasizes the need for the Federal Reserve to exercise caution in using quantitative easing (QE), likening it to the careful use of antibiotics. The next Federal Reserve chair should consider reforms to QE as a significant factor [1] Group 1 - Yellen does not advocate for the Federal Reserve to reduce its balance sheet or abandon the ample reserves system [1] - The reform of quantitative easing is highlighted as an important consideration for the next Federal Reserve chair [1]