【现货】 截至11月19日收盘，主流矿粉现货价格：日照港（600017）PB粉+0元/吨至795元/吨，卡粉+0元至892.0 元/吨。 【期货】 以收盘价统计，铁矿主力合约-0.5（-0.06%），收于791.5元/吨，铁矿远月2605合约-2.5(-0.33%)收于 755，1-5价差走强至36.5，SGX铁矿掉期价格+0.20美元/吨（+0.19%）至104.45美元/吨。 【基差】 截至11月19日，日均铁水产量236.88万吨/日，环比+2.66万吨/日；高炉开工率82.81%，环比-0.32%；高 炉炼铁产能利用率88.8%，环比+0.99%；钢厂盈利率38.96%，环比-0.87%；进口矿日耗292.63万吨/日， 环比3.93万吨/日。 【供给】 截至11月19日，上周全球发运环比上升，到港量下降。全球发运3516.4万吨，周环比+477.4万吨。47港 口到港量2268.9万吨，周环比-472.3万吨。全国9月进口量11632.6万吨，月环比+110.1万吨。 【库存】 截至11月19日，港口库存小幅去库，日均疏港量环比回升，钢厂进口矿库存环比上升。45港库存 15114.45万吨，环比-1 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 11 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 弱势 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA60 一线压力 | 供需格局未改善，上行驱动不强 | 说明： ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 铁矿石供需格局变化不大，钢厂复产带来矿石终端消耗回升，但钢厂盈利状况不佳，且钢市产业 矛盾未解，需求改善空间有限，利好效应不强。与此同时，国内港口矿石到货延续回落，但海外矿商 发运则是大幅增加并重回年内高位，按船期推算后续到货将触底回升，外矿供应积极，相应 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to continue to fluctuate. The demand for iron ore has improved, but its sustainability is questionable, and the supply remains at a high level. The upward driving force is not strong. The relatively positive factor is the switching of the arbitrage logic of black varieties. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the steel mill production situation [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening". It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals have not improved, and the upward movement of the ore price is questionable [1] Market Driving Logic - There have been changes in both the supply and demand sides of iron ore. Steel mills have resumed production, and the terminal consumption of ore has increased slightly. However, the industrial contradictions in the steel market remain unresolved, and the room for improvement in ore demand is questionable. At the same time, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has declined from a high level, and the shipments of overseas miners have continued to decrease, but both are still at the highest levels of the year. The domestic ore production has stabilized, and the pressure on ore supply has not receded [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of Iron Ore 2601 are expected to be oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line. The fundamental situation is weak, and the ore price is under pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively. The reference view is to focus on the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the fundamental performance is weak, causing the ore price to be under pressure [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. Inventory has continued to increase. Steel mills have resumed production, and the terminal consumption of ore has slightly increased. However, the industrial contradictions in the steel market have not been alleviated, and the room for improvement in ore demand is limited, with a weak positive effect. Meanwhile, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has declined from a high level, and the shipments from overseas miners have continued to decrease, but both are still at a high level for the year. The domestic ore production has stabilized, and the supply pressure of ore has not subsided. Currently, although the demand for iron ore has improved, the supply remains at a high level. The fundamental situation of the ore market is still weak, which is likely to suppress the ore price. The relatively positive factor is the switching of the arbitrage logic, and the short - term trend will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mills' hot metal production has started to decline, the arrival level this month has decreased, the overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories have decreased, and there will be policies to reduce crude steel production, while the trade war has eased, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis shows that the spot - converted prices of Rizhao Port PB powder and Brazilian Blend are at a premium to futures, being bullish [2]. - Port inventories are 15,272.93 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, being neutral [2]. - The price is below the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is downward, being bearish [2]. - The net long position of the main iron ore contract has changed from short to long, being bullish [2]. - With the expected decrease in domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans, the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Factors Affecting Iron Ore Bullish factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories have decreased [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The downstream steel prices are rising and can bear high - priced raw materials [6]. Bearish factors - Future shipment volumes will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. 3.2. Market Indicators - **Iron ore port spot prices**: Not elaborated on in the provided content - **Iron ore basis**: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to the futures price is 825 with a basis of 49; Rizhao Port Brazilian Blend spot converted to the futures price is 846 with a basis of 70, and the spot is at a premium to the futures [2]. - **Iron ore import profit**: Not elaborated on in the provided content - **Iron ore shipment volume**: Future shipment volumes will increase [6]. - **Iron ore port and steel mill inventories**: Port inventories are 15,272.93 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year [2]. - **Iron ore arrival and clearance volumes**: Not elaborated on in the provided content - **Iron ore daily consumption**: Not elaborated on in the provided content - **Steel enterprise production situation**: Steel mills' hot metal production has started to decline [2]. - **Iron ore daily port transactions and steel mills' daily hot metal**: Not elaborated on in the provided content

Market Review - Iron ore futures for the main contract 2601 experienced a slight increase, closing at 769.5 yuan with a rise of 0.13% [1] Fundamental Summary - Australian iron ore producers exported 62 million tons of iron ore through two major ports in Western Australia in September, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, indicating a shift in export market structure with reduced shipments to China and increased exports to Northeast Asia [2] - Vale reported a total iron ore production of 94.4 million tons for Q3 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.9% and a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. Total sales reached 86 million tons, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.21% and a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [2] - BHP's Q3 2025 report indicated a production of 70.2 million tons of iron ore from its Pilbara operations, showing a quarter-on-quarter decline of 9.3% and a year-on-year decline of 1.9% [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Everbright Futures, both Australian and Brazilian shipments have seen slight recoveries, while other countries also show increased shipments. However, iron and steel production decreased slightly, and steel mill profitability continues to decline, with rebar inventory pressures persisting. The overall sentiment in the black commodity market is weak, although iron ore demand remains high, providing significant price support [3] - Zhengxin Futures noted that a potential visit by U.S. officials to China in early 2026 has led to a minor rebound in commodity prices, but weak demand for finished steel and continuous accumulation of port inventories are limiting the rebound in iron ore prices. The supply-demand structure for iron ore has slightly improved, with market attention on the accelerated progress of the West Moudou project, which may lead to increased supply [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The iron ore market's fundamentals are weakening, with high - valued ore prices under pressure to run weakly, and attention should be paid to steel performance [2] - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and intraday trends are weakly oscillating, the medium - term trend is oscillating, and it is necessary to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, and the reference is to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the demand expectation is weakening and the ore price is under pressure [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is continuously weakening. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline. The supply pressure is increasing due to high port arrivals, high miner shipments, and the recovery of domestic ore supply. The demand downside pressure is fermenting, and the high - valued ore price is under pressure [2]

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore futures have experienced a significant decline, with the main contract dropping by 3% to 774 yuan per ton on October 14 [1] Group 1 - The main contract for iron ore futures has seen a day-to-day decrease of 3% [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The iron ore market shows limited improvement in fundamentals, and the high - valued ore price has weak upward drivers. The price is expected to continue high - level oscillations before the holiday, and attention should be paid to the change in positions [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be oscillatory, while the intraday trend is expected to be weakly oscillatory. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA10 line. The core logic is the limited improvement in fundamentals and high - level oscillations of ore prices [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand sides of iron ore have changed. Steel mill production is stable, terminal consumption remains high, and ore demand is fair, which supports the ore price. However, contradictions in the downstream steel market are accumulating, restocking is nearing completion, and the positive effect of demand is weak. - Domestic port arrivals have risen as expected, miner shipments have declined from the high level, overseas supply is relatively high, and domestic mine supply has recovered, increasing the supply pressure. - Overall, ore demand is fair but expected to weaken, supply is rising, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to deteriorate, resulting in weak upward drivers for high - valued ore prices [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily decline of 0.25%, and the volume and open interest increased. The supply of rebar continued to shrink while the demand rebounded from a low level, but the downstream situation did not improve, and the strength of the peak season was still in doubt. With cost increase as a relative positive factor, the steel price is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil declined with a daily decline of 0.89%, and the volume and open interest increased. The demand for hot-rolled coil showed weakening resilience, while the supply remained at a high level, the supply-demand pattern was weakening, and the inventory increased again. With cost increase and production restrictions as relative positive factors, the price is expected to show a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [6]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a high level with a daily decline of 0.12%, the volume increased and the open interest decreased. Supported by pre-holiday stockpiling, the ore price remained at a high level, but the demand resilience was weakening, and the supply was increasing. The fundamentals did not improve, and the upward driving force of the high-valued ore price was limited. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Dynamics - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, adjusting the federal funds rate target range from 4.25% - 4.50% to 4.0% - 4.25%, releasing a loose signal to cope with economic downside risks [8]. - In August 2025, China's excavator output was 27,590 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. From January to August 2025, the output was 245,556 units, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. The production of tractors showed different trends, with large, medium, and small tractors having different year - on - year changes [9]. - In August 2025, China exported 563 million tons of steel plates, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 4.808 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In August, China exported 163 million tons of steel bars, a year - on - year increase of 51.0%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 1.225 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.2% [10]. Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price was 3,210 yuan, down 20 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,210 yuan, down 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,298 yuan, down 8 yuan. For hot - rolled coil, the Shanghai price was 3,400 yuan, down 20 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,330 yuan, down 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,445 yuan, down 12 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,040 yuan, down 20 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,130 yuan, unchanged [11]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 790 yuan, down 5 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 798 yuan, unchanged. The Australian sea freight was 10.60 yuan, unchanged; the Brazilian sea freight was 23.98 yuan, up 0.12 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 105.45 yuan, down 0.27 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 105.60 yuan, down 0.30 yuan [11]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,147 yuan, with a decline of 0.25%, the highest price was 3,176 yuan, the lowest price was 3,123 yuan, the trading volume was 1,727,718 lots, an increase of 485,624 lots, and the open interest was 1,999,684 lots, an increase of 36,313 lots [15]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,354 yuan, with a decline of 0.89%, the highest price was 3,400 yuan, the lowest price was 3,345 yuan, the trading volume was 661,851 lots, an increase of 160,913 lots, and the open interest was 1,412,324 lots, an increase of 20,862 lots [15]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 800.0 yuan, with a decline of 0.12%, the highest price was 809.0 yuan, the lowest price was 797.0 yuan, the trading volume was 308,247 lots, an increase of 53,979 lots, and the open interest was 533,529 lots, a decrease of 936 lots [15]. Relevant Charts - There are charts showing the weekly changes in rebar inventory, hot - rolled coil inventory, hot - rolled inventory total (steel mills + social inventory), national 45 - port iron ore inventory, 247 - steel - mill iron ore inventory, 247 - sample steel - mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, 87 - independent electric - furnace operating rate, domestic mine iron concentrate inventory, 247 - steel - mill profitable steel - mill ratio, 75 - building - material independent electric - arc - furnace steel - mill profit and loss situation [17][24][31] 后市研判 - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern has improved with supply contraction and demand rebound, but the downstream situation is still poor, and the peak - season strength is doubtful. With cost increase as a positive factor, the steel price is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [39]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern is weakening with increasing supply and weakening demand. With cost increase and production restrictions as positive factors, the price is expected to show a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [39]. - For iron ore, supported by pre - holiday stockpiling, the ore price remains at a high level, but the demand resilience is weakening and the supply is increasing. The fundamentals have not improved, and the upward driving force of the high - valued ore price is limited. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [40].