Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Zinc ore imports have increased as long - term agreement ores signed by smelters have arrived at ports, and smelters are stockpiling raw materials for winter production. However, domestic zinc ore processing fees have been reduced, sulfuric acid prices have fallen, smelter profits have shrunk significantly, and some smelters are in the red. Although new production capacities are being released, refined zinc output growth is limited. Overseas zinc supply is tight, the SHFE - LME ratio has dropped significantly, the export window has opened, and it is expected to gradually shift to net exports. On the demand side, the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season effect is weak, the real estate sector is a drag, while the automotive and home appliance sectors show some bright spots due to policy support. Downstream demand recovery is insufficient, the market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices, the spot premium is low, but domestic inventories are decreasing, and LME inventories are also decreasing with a high spot premium. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. It is recommended to wait and see or hold a small long position [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract is 22,670 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price difference between the December - January contracts of SHFE zinc is - 40 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,066.5 dollars/ton, up 15.5 dollars. The total SHFE zinc open interest is 228,100 lots, up 1,217 lots. The net position of the top 20 in SHFE zinc is 15,827 lots, up 1,263 lots. SHFE zinc warrants are 69,869 tons, up 601 tons. The SHFE inventory is 100,208 tons (weekly), down 3,208 tons, and the LME inventory is 34,900 tons, up 800 tons [3]. 现货市场 - The SMM 0 zinc spot price is 22,570 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 zinc spot price is 22,420 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is - 100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is 152.26 dollars/ton, up 47.51 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 18,330 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons (monthly), down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons (monthly), up 17,700 tons. The ILZSG global zinc mine production is 1.0976 million tons (monthly), up 21,400 tons. Domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons (monthly), up 34,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 505,400 tons (monthly), up 38,100 tons [3]. Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 22,677.51 tons (monthly), down 2,979.32 tons; refined zinc exports are 2,477.83 tons (monthly), up 2,166.92 tons. Zinc social inventories are 161,800 tons (weekly), down 400 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly sales of galvanized sheets are 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money zinc call options is 12.19% (daily), down 0.46 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money zinc put options is 12.2% (daily), down 0.45 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.37% (daily), down 0.15 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.01% (daily), down 0.31 percentage points [3]. Industry News - In October, China's CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 1.2% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the 6th consecutive month. PPI turned from flat to a 0.1% month - on - month increase in October, the first increase this year, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has postponed the release of the CPI report and suspended offline data collection. China's exports in October decreased 1.1% year - on - year in US dollar terms, while imports increased 1% year - on - year. China's narrow - sense passenger car retail sales in October decreased 0.8% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month, and new - energy vehicle retail sales increased 7.3% year - on - year and decreased 1.3% month - on - month [3].

南华期货锌产业周报 ——11月维持高位震荡，观望出口数据 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月9日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周锌价周初受LME带动，沪锌向上突破，随后维持高位震荡。宏观上，本周宏观情绪偏中性。美国政 府继续停摆，后续降息受数据缺失较难预测，但鲍威尔偏鹰派发言降低降息预期。本周公布的美国ISM制造 业PMI、芝加哥联储失业率等数据显示经济疲软，但ADP数据小幅缓解劳动力担忧。美元指数受流动性紧张 破百，短期维持高位震荡对整体有色上方压制。 基本面上，供给端国内冶炼厂冬储未结束，短期内原料较紧。TC承压运行小幅压制开工意愿，但精炼锌 产量仍处于历史高位，11月环比预计小幅下降。海外精炼锌维持偏紧格局，LME库存继续去库。受外强内弱 格局影响，目前企业皆有一定出口动作，但具体量级待观察。需求端，短期未见合适驱动，维稳为主。 展望未来，基本面上虽仍供强需弱，但受出口窗口打开，以及冶炼利润压缩影响，11月预计有一定改 善。关注宏观数据和供需博弈，偏强震荡为主。 沪锌沪铜期货主力收盘价对比 source： 同 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Shanghai Zinc Industry Daily Report [2] - Report Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Fuhui [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03123381 [3] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0019878 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The macro - economic situation in China shows characteristics of "sluggish industry, weak investment, and tepid consumption", leading to an increased expectation of a new round of policy easing. On the fundamental side, domestic and foreign zinc ore imports have increased, the growth of zinc ore processing fees has slowed, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, giving smelters a large profit margin and increasing production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and the supply growth has accelerated. However, overseas zinc ore is tight, resulting in an expanding import loss, a decrease in imported zinc inflows, and an approaching export window. On the demand side, the downstream market shows a situation of "not prosperous in the peak season", with stable and slightly rising operating rates of processing enterprises. Recently, zinc prices have rebounded, downstream purchases are made on - demand, and the trading atmosphere is dull. Domestically, social inventories are increasing, and the spot premium remains low; overseas, LME inventories are significantly decreasing, and the spot premium is rising, which supports zinc prices. Technically, the position is decreasing, the price is adjusting, the bullish sentiment is weakening, and it faces resistance at MA60. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [3]. Group 4: Market Data Summary Futures Market - Shanghai Zinc Main Contract Closing Price: 22,255 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan [3] - 10 - 11 Month Contract Spread of Shanghai Zinc: - 10 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3] - LME Three - Month Zinc Quote: 2,982 US dollars/ton, up 26 US dollars [3] - Total Shanghai Zinc Positions: 214,604 lots, down 7,147 lots [3] - Net Positions of the Top 20 in Shanghai Zinc: - 11,031 lots, down 3,092 lots [3] - Shanghai Zinc Warehouse Receipts: 52,170 tons, up 799 tons [3] - SHFE Inventory (weekly): 94,649 tons, up 7,617 tons [3] - LME Inventory (daily): 50,150 tons, down 375 tons [3] 现货市场 - SMM 0 Zinc Spot Price: 22,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 Zinc Spot Price: 22,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - ZN Main Contract Basis: - 25 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [3] - LME Zinc Premium (0 - 3): 26.76 US dollars/ton, down 3.41 US dollars [3] - Kunming 50% Zinc Concentrate Factory - delivered Price: 16,970 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [3] - Shanghai 85% - 86% Broken Zinc Price: 15,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - WBMS: Zinc Supply - demand Balance (monthly): - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons [3] - ILZSG: Zinc Supply - demand Balance (monthly): - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons [3] - ILZSG: Global Zinc Mine Production (monthly): 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons [3] - Domestic Refined Zinc Production (monthly): 617,000 tons, down 11,000 tons [3] - Zinc Ore Imports (monthly): 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] Industry Situation - Refined Zinc Imports (monthly): 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons [3] - Refined Zinc Exports (monthly): 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons [3] - Zinc Social Inventory (weekly): 159,600 tons, up 15,500 tons [3] Downstream Situation - Galvanized Sheet Production (monthly): 2,320,000 tons, down 130,000 tons [3] - Galvanized Sheet Sales (monthly): 2,340,000 tons, down 120,000 tons [3] - New Housing Starts (monthly): 352,060,000 square meters, up 48,416,800 square meters [3] - Housing Completions (monthly): 250,340,000 square meters, up 24,673,900 square meters [3] - Automobile Production (monthly): 2,510,000 vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles [3] - Air - conditioner Production (monthly): 19,678,800 units, up 3,476,400 units [3] Option Market - Implied Volatility of Zinc At - the - money Call Options: 15.74%, up 2.41 percentage points [3] - Implied Volatility of Zinc At - the - money Put Options: 15.75%, up 2.41 percentage points [3] - 20 - day Historical Volatility of Zinc At - the - money Options: 6.3%, down 0.01 percentage points [3] - 60 - day Historical Volatility of Zinc At - the - money Options: 11.05%, down 0.01 percentage points [3] Group 5: Industry News - In August, China's social consumer goods retail growth slowed to 3.4%, and the retail growth of household appliances and audio - visual equipment slowed to 14.3%. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with good growth in the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries. From January to August, national fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5%, and manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%. From January to August, real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4.7% year - on - year. The macro - economic situation shows "sluggish industry, weak investment, and tepid consumption", and the expectation of a new round of policy easing is rising [3]. - The US has lowered the import tariff on Japanese cars to 15% starting from 0:01 on September 16, Eastern Time [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests to temporarily observe or go long with a light position at low prices. The macro - level shows that China's manufacturing PMI in August slightly rebounded, and the US core PCE price index in July also rose as expected. Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, and the processing fee for zinc ore has continued to rise. The profit of smelters has been further repaired, and the supply growth has accelerated. The import loss has continued to expand, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, downstream is at the end of the off - season, with stable and rising operating rates of processing enterprises. The domestic social inventory has increased, and the spot premium has stabilized at a low level. The overseas LME inventory has decreased significantly, and the spot premium has risen, supporting the zinc price. Technically, the position has increased while the price is adjusting, and attention should be paid to the support level at 22,000 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,175 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 20 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,814 US dollars/ton, up 27 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 227,829 hands, up 4,138 hands; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 13,578 hands, down 2,168 hands; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 37,957 tons, unchanged; the SHFE inventory is 85,980 tons, up 8,142 tons; the LME inventory is 56,500 tons, down 1,500 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,100 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,140 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 75 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 6.12 US dollars/ton, up 9.42 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,740 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. The global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 617,000 tons, down 11,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. The social zinc inventory is 129,900 tons, up 5,300 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, up 48.4168 million square meters; the housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, up 24.6739 million square meters. The automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6期权市场 - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 11.91%, down 0.17%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 11.87%, down 0.17%. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 5.71%, up 0.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 12.57%, down 0.01% [3] 3.7行业消息 - China's official manufacturing PMI in August slightly rebounded to 49.4, the new order index rose to 49.5, and the non - manufacturing sector accelerated its expansion. The US core PCE price index in July rebounded to 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations. The State Council executive meeting studied the implementation of comprehensive reform pilot projects for the market - based allocation of factors in some regions across the country [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The import volume of zinc mines at home and abroad has increased, the processing fees for zinc mines have continued to rise, and the sulfuric acid price has increased significantly, leading to further restoration of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. With the release of new production capacities and the resumption of previously overhauled capacities, the supply growth has accelerated. The import loss has continued to widen, resulting in a decline in the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, the zinc price has declined, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand at low prices, but the overall trading remains dull. The domestic social inventory has continued to increase, and the spot premium has declined. The LME inventory overseas has decreased significantly, and the LME spot premium has been adjusted downward, which may weaken the support for the domestic zinc price. Technically, the price has adjusted at a low position of open interest, breaking below the MA60. Attention should be paid to the support at 22,000. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,240 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 09 - 10 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,770 dollars/ton, down 7 dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 216,150 lots, an increase of 1,551 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 4,802 lots, an increase of 1,178 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 32,288 tons, unchanged; the SHFE inventory is 76,803 tons, an increase of 10,886 tons; the LME inventory is 72,200 tons, a decrease of 3,650 tons [3]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,230 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,980 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 10.26 dollars/ton, down 1.61 dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,940 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons; the global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons; the zinc mine import volume is 455,900 tons, an increase of 124,900 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, a decrease of 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, an increase of 266.83 tons; the zinc social inventory is 1.149 million tons, an increase of 49,000 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, an increase of 24.6739 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, an increase of 3.4764 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 14.06%, an increase of 0.93%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 14.06%, an increase of 0.93%; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 5.1%, down 0.28%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.35%, an increase of 0.18% [3]. Industry News - The minutes of the Fed's July meeting showed that most people thought inflation was a higher risk than employment and sent a hawkish signal. Most policymakers believed that the upside risk of inflation exceeded the downside risk of employment, but some thought the risks were balanced, and two thought the employment risk was more prominent. The National Energy Administration released the total social electricity consumption in July, which reached 1.02 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments will further standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry and curb low - price disorderly competition [3].

Report Overview - Report Title: Shanghai Zinc Industry Daily Report 2025-08-07 [2] - Analyst: Wang Fuhui [3] - Qualification Number: Futures practice qualification number F03123381, Futures investment consulting practice certificate number Z0019878 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Fundamentally, domestic and foreign zinc ore imports are increasing, zinc ore processing fees are rising, and the sulfuric acid price has increased significantly, leading to further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously shut - down capacities are resuming production, accelerating supply growth. Currently, the import loss continues to widen, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream is in the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, the zinc price has fallen, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase on - demand at low prices, but overall trading remains dull. Domestic social inventories continue to accumulate, and the spot premium has declined. Overseas, LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the strong LME zinc price has driven up the domestic zinc price. Technically, with increased positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is heating up. Attention should be paid to the resistance at the 23,000 mark. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for now or take short - term, light - position long positions. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,580 yuan/ton, a rise of 200 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai zinc was - 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. - The LME three - month zinc quotation was 2,795 US dollars/ton, a rise of 45 US dollars/ton. The total position of Shanghai zinc was 209,722 lots, an increase of 7,676 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 7,961 lots, an increase of 4,545 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts were 13,822 tons, unchanged. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 61,724 tons (weekly), an increase of 2,305 tons. The LME inventory was 89,225 tons (daily), a decrease of 3,050 tons. [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 22,510 yuan/ton, a rise of 180 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 22,660 yuan/ton, a rise of 240 yuan/ton. - The basis of the ZN main contract was - 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) was - 9.79 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.37 US dollars/ton. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming was 17,030 yuan/ton, a rise of 30 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai was 15,900 yuan/ton, a rise of 50 yuan/ton. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance was - 124,700 tons (monthly), a decrease of 104,100 tons. The ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance was - 69,100 tons (monthly), an increase of 10,400 tons. - The global zinc ore production value of ILZSG was 1,007,500 tons (monthly), a decrease of 4,300 tons. The domestic refined zinc production was 628,000 tons (monthly), an increase of 45,000 tons. - The zinc ore import volume was 455,900 tons (monthly), an increase of 124,900 tons. [3] 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume was 35,156.02 tons (monthly), a decrease of 22,615.39 tons. The refined zinc export volume was 483.88 tons (monthly), an increase of 266.83 tons. - The zinc social inventory was 87,300 tons (weekly), an increase of 3,000 tons. [3] 3.5下游情况 - The production of galvanized sheets was 2.32 million tons (monthly), a decrease of 130,000 tons. The sales volume of galvanized sheets was 2.34 million tons (monthly), a decrease of 120,000 tons. - The new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters (monthly), an increase of 71.8071 million square meters. The housing completion area was 225.6661 million square meters (monthly), an increase of 41.8147 million square meters. - The automobile production was 2.8086 million vehicles (monthly), an increase of 166,600 vehicles. The air - conditioner production was 19.6788 million units (monthly), an increase of 3.4764 million units. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option on zinc was 13.27% (daily), a decrease of 0.29%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money put option on zinc was 13.27% (daily), a decrease of 0.29%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option was 8.93% (daily), a decrease of 0.4%. The 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option was 13.33% (daily), a decrease of 0.24%. [3] 3.7 Industry News - Modi is expected to visit China from August 31 to September 1 to attend the SCO Tianjin Summit. - Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on chip products, but companies building or promising to build factories in the US, such as Apple and TSMC, are exempted. - The differences in the US - Japan trade agreement continue, and the US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff on the existing tariff basis. - Fed Governor Cook said the July employment report was "worrying" and might indicate a turning point in the US economy. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the zinc market is currently in a complex situation. On the macro - front, the US June PPI hit a nearly one - year low, and Trump's tariff announcements add uncertainty. Fundamentally, zinc supply growth is accelerating due to increased zinc ore imports, rising processing fees, and improved smelter profits. Demand is in a seasonal slump, with lower processing enterprise operating rates. Zinc prices are in a wide - range adjustment, and both domestic and overseas inventories are rising, putting pressure on zinc prices. Technically, the market is in a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to either wait and see or consider short - selling at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,130 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is 15 yuan, unchanged. - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,701.5 dollars/ton, down 31 dollars. - The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 231,620 lots, down 4,884 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 8,851 lots, down 3,193 lots. - Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 12,161 tons, up 977 tons; the SHFE inventory is 49,981 tons, up 4,617 tons; the LME inventory is 118,600 tons, up 5,200 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,110 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,710 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 20 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 9.95 dollars/ton, down 4.34 dollars. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,900 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. - The global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons. - Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. - Zinc social inventory is 74,400 tons, up 1,900 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. - The new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; the housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters. - Automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 14.9%, down 0.88%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 14.9%, down 0.88%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 8.44%, down 0.78%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 12.74%, down 0.01% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The US June PPI year - on - year increase was 2.3%, significantly lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest since September 2024, with a month - on - month increase of 0%. - Trump said he plans to impose "slightly over 10%" tariffs on at least 100 countries and mentioned possible trade agreements [3]. 3.8观点总结 - On the macro - front, the US June PPI hit a nearly one - year low, and Trump's tariff announcements add uncertainty. - Fundamentally, zinc supply growth is accelerating due to increased zinc ore imports, rising processing fees, and improved smelter profits. Demand is in a seasonal slump, with lower processing enterprise operating rates. - Technically, the market is in a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to either wait and see or consider short - selling at high prices [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report suggests that due to the increase in zinc ore imports and processing fees, along with a significant rise in sulfuric acid prices, smelters' profits are further repaired, increasing production enthusiasm. With the release of new production capacity and the resumption of previously shut - down capacity, supply growth has accelerated. The import window is closed, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream is in the off - season, with a year - on - year decline in the operating rate of processing enterprises. Zinc prices have adjusted widely, and downstream buyers mainly purchase on - demand at low prices. Domestic social inventories are increasing, and the spot premium has dropped to a low level. Overseas LME inventories are rising, increasing pressure on zinc prices. Technically, with declining positions, both long and short positions are cautious, and the price is in a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see or go short lightly at high prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,045 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is 15 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,701.5 dollars/ton, down 31 dollars. The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 231,620 lots, down 4,884 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 8,851 lots, down 3,193 lots. The Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 12,161 tons, up 977 tons. The SHFE inventory is 49,981 tons, up 4,617 tons, and the LME inventory is 118,600 tons, up 5,200 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals Network is 22,050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market is 21,710 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 5 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 9.95 dollars/ton, down 4.34 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,900 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. The global zinc mine production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons. Domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. The social zinc inventory is 74,400 tons, up 1,900 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales of galvanized sheets are 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; the housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters. The automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 15.78%, down 0.79 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 15.78%, down 0.79 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.44%, down 0.78 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 12.74%, down 0.01 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - In the US, the CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, slightly exceeding the expected 2.6%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, remaining below expectations for five consecutive months. The EU trade commissioner said there are still significant differences in some key areas. The Central Urban Work Conference was held, stating that China's urbanization is shifting from a rapid growth stage to a stable development stage [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, the zinc ore processing fee has continued to rise, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released continuously, and the supply growth has accelerated. Currently, the import window is closed, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, zinc prices have been widely adjusted, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase at low prices. The domestic social inventory has increased slightly, but the expectation of favorable policies in the real estate market has increased, and the spot premium has been adjusted upwards. Overseas, the LME zinc premium has risen, and the inventory has continued to decline, driving up domestic prices. Technically, the increase in positions and price indicates stronger long - positions, and the price has stood above the MA60. It is recommended to wait and see or go long with a light position [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,120 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 75 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,719 US dollars/ton, up 36 US dollars; the total position of Shanghai zinc is 250,347 lots, down 3,271 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 18,212 lots, up 8,912 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 8,950 tons, up 1,001 tons; the SHFE inventory is 45,364 tons, up 1,731 tons; the LME inventory is 108,500 tons, down 2,100 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,400 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,250 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is 40 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 9.88 US dollars/ton, up 12.17 US dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,840 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons; the global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons; the social zinc inventory is 69,800 tons, up 6,200 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money zinc call options is 14.27%, down 0.72 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money zinc put options is 14.27%, down 0.72 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 7.53%, down 1.06 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.01%, down 1.45 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - China's CPI in June increased by 0.1% year - on - year, the core CPI reached a 14 - month high, and the PPI decline widened to 3.6%. Trump announced that from August 1st, the US will impose tariffs on products from multiple countries. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China in June increased by 26.7% year - on - year [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The zinc price is running weakly. The downstream is in the off - season, the processing enterprise's operating rate has decreased year - on - year, the downstream consumption is gradually weakening, the inventory shipment speed has slowed down, and the domestic social inventory is stable. However, the overseas LME zinc premium has risen, and the inventory has continued to decline, driving up the domestic price. Technically, the position has decreased, both long and short sides are cautious, the price has broken below the MA10 support, and attention should be paid to the 22,000 mark. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,090 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,735.5 dollars/ton, down 2.5 dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 261,401 lots, down 1,332 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 15,031 lots, down 6,186 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 8,071 tons, up 825 tons [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 45,364 tons (weekly), up 1,731 tons; the LME inventory is 112,325 tons (daily), down 350 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,270 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,050 yuan/ton, down 470 yuan [3]. - The basis of the main ZN contract is 180 yuan/ton; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 21.64 dollars/ton, up 0.35 dollars [3]. - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,100 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% broken zinc in Shanghai is 15,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons (monthly), down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons (monthly), up 10,400 tons [3]. - The global zinc mine production (monthly) is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production (monthly) is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume (monthly) is 455,900 tons up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume (monthly) is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume (monthly) is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons [3]. - The social zinc inventory (weekly) is 63,600 tons, up 2,000 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 14.79% (daily), down 0.34 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 14.79% (daily), down 0.35 percentage points [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.57% (daily), up 1.16 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 14.96% (daily), up 0.2 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - US President Trump said that the US government will issue notices of new tariff rates to countries without trade agreements from July 4, with rates ranging from 10% to 70%, and plans to implement them officially from August 1. The upper limit of 70% is much higher than the 50% announced in April [3]. - Data from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing showed that the global manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, rising month - on - month for two consecutive months. The index is still in the contraction range, but the continuous small increase reflects that the global economic recovery has picked up [3].