市场策略丨深度报告 [Table_Title] A 股增量资金空间测算：居民存款与机构资金潜 力展望——"重估牛"系列之资金篇（三） %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 随着 A 股逐渐走出结构性"慢牛"行情，居民存款、险资等资金面有望对 A 股市场提供中长期 流动性支撑。根据我们测算，到 2030 年，居民部门资产再配置预计带来 5.4~12.0 万亿元入市 资金，其中存款"搬家"部分贡献约 3.5~6.2 万亿元，资产再配置部分贡献约 1.9~5.7 万亿元， 而中长期资金的保险资金有望在未来 9 个季度累计增配股票与基金约 4.5~6.5 万亿元；展望 2026 年，一级市场、主动型基金、ETF 基金及私募等其他渠道有望为 A 股市场贡献约 6.0~9.6 万亿元的增量资金。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 李巍东 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 24 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 微观增量资金 ...

Core Insights - Recent surge in share buybacks by multiple A-share listed banks indicates a strong confidence from various funding sources in the banking sector [1] Group 1: Share Buybacks by Bank Executives - Local commercial banks' board members and senior management have become the main force behind the share buybacks, demonstrating confidence in their own banks [2] - Qilu Bank disclosed that its board and senior management plan to buy back shares from September 16 to December 31, with a total buyback amount of approximately 3.15 million yuan, accounting for 90% of the planned buyback amount [2] Group 2: Significant Share Purchases by Major Shareholders - Xiamen Bank announced that its board and senior management have cumulatively bought back 254,400 shares for a total of 1.6857 million yuan, completing their buyback plan [5] - Qingdao Bank's major shareholder, Guoxin Chanin Holdings, increased its stake by acquiring 243 million H-shares from September 15 to November 5, amounting to 957 million yuan, thus becoming the largest shareholder with a 19.17% stake [5][6] Group 3: Insurance Capital Involvement - Insurance funds have significantly increased their allocation to the banking sector since the third quarter, with Ping An Life raising its stake in Postal Savings Bank to 16.01% after investing approximately 7.068 million HKD [8] - China Ping An also announced an increase in its holdings of Postal Savings Bank H-shares, raising its stake from 6.09% to 17.01% after investing about 3.441 million HKD [8] - Other insurance companies have also made notable investments in various banks, indicating a trend of insurance capital favoring the banking sector due to its high dividend characteristics [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the insurance sector, recommending several companies including China Life, New China Life, Ping An, PICC, China Pacific Insurance, and AIA, while suggesting to pay attention to China Taiping [5][70]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, A-share insurance companies saw a significant profit increase of 68%, with investment performance contributing 79% to the pre-tax profit increment. The total net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters reached CNY 426 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33.5% [3][11][12]. - The new business value (NBV) continued to show strong growth, with a year-on-year increase ranging from 18% to 77% among listed insurance companies, driven by preemptive product demand due to expected interest rate cuts [3][31]. - The insurance premium growth exhibited differentiation, with property insurance companies showing varied premium growth rates, influenced by structural optimization and operational strategies [4][45]. Summary by Sections Profit Performance - A-share insurance companies reported a total net profit of CNY 263.7 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 68.3% [8][11]. - The profit structure showed that investment performance accounted for 79.2% of the pre-tax profit increment, with insurance service performance contributing 22.6% [12][24]. Liability Side - The NBV growth remained robust, with the first three quarters showing a year-on-year increase of 14.2% to CNY 557.8 billion, and Q3 alone saw a 38.7% increase [3][35]. - The cost of risk (COR) continued to improve, indicating effective cost management among leading insurers [4][45]. Asset Side - Investment returns showed significant improvement, with total investment income for the first three quarters reaching CNY 886.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36% [24][57]. - The FVOCI equity assets increased by CNY 92.5 billion, reflecting a strong performance in the equity market [3][62]. Investment Analysis - The report highlights a positive outlook for the insurance sector, driven by ongoing capital market participation and external environment improvements, suggesting a potential revaluation of the sector [5][70].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the banking sector, while suggesting a reduction in exposure to the power equipment and non-ferrous metals sectors [3][4]. Core Insights - The insurance funds have continued to increase their holdings in banks despite a low interest rate environment, while reducing their positions in power equipment and non-ferrous metals [3]. - As of October 2025, the new money investment yield for insurance funds is estimated at 2.77%, showing a recovery of nearly 10 basis points from the bottom [6][17]. - The total market value of insurance funds' holdings in A-shares reached 6,510 billion yuan, with a notable presence in 633 A-share companies [60][62]. Summary by Sections Insurance Fund Allocation Trends - Insurance funds are increasingly allocating to stocks, with a significant rise in stock investment proportion to 8.8% by the end of Q2 2025, reflecting an 8.9% increase from the previous quarter [18][20]. - The total stock investment by insurance companies reached 6,406 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [20]. Sector Performance and Holdings - In Q3 2025, the banking sector had the highest market value held by insurance funds at 3,165.2 billion yuan, followed by public utilities and transportation [62]. - The report highlights that 26 out of 28 sectors experienced growth, with TMT and new energy sectors showing significant strength [59]. Key Stock Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Xinhua Insurance, China Life, China Property Insurance, China Ping An, AIA, China Taiping, and China Pacific Insurance as potential investment opportunities [5]. Changes in Holdings - In Q3 2025, insurance funds increased their holdings in 11 sectors, including banking, communication, steel, computing, and food and beverage [69]. - Conversely, they reduced their positions in 18 sectors, notably in power equipment, non-ferrous metals, transportation, coal, and electronics [6]. Regulatory Environment - The report notes that regulatory measures are encouraging long-term capital to enter the market, with insurance funds being a focal point of this initiative [28]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has mandated that from 2025, 30% of new insurance premiums should be allocated to A-share investments [32].

Group 1 - The non-bank financial sector has reported better-than-expected performance in Q3, with several companies announcing profit increases for the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - Xinhua Insurance expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company to be between 29.986 billion and 34.122 billion yuan, an increase of 9.306 billion to 13.442 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 45% to 65% [1] - China Life anticipates a net profit of approximately 156.785 billion to 177.689 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of about 52.262 billion to 73.166 billion yuan compared to 2024, indicating a year-on-year growth of about 50% to 70% [1] Group 2 - As of the end of 2024, the balance of insurance fund utilization reached 33.26 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.08%, outpacing the average growth rate of the asset management industry [2] - The asset allocation structure is increasingly favoring standard products, with bond allocation rising to 50.7% and stock allocation increasing to 8.3% [2] - Insurance companies are actively increasing their equity asset allocation in the context of a recovering capital market, with China Life's stock and fund allocation growing by approximately 36% compared to the same period last year [2] Group 3 - As of October 20, 2025, the latest scale of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial ETF reached 20.778 billion yuan, with net inflows of 9.62 billion yuan over the past five trading days [3] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial ETF is the first and only ETF tracking the Hong Kong non-bank index, with over 60% of its allocation in insurance stocks [3] - The ETF selects up to 50 listed companies that meet the non-bank financial theme from the Hong Kong Stock Connect securities range to reflect the overall performance of these companies [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank financial sector, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the industry [5][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong performance in the non-bank financial sector, with significant growth in both the brokerage and insurance segments, driven by favorable market conditions and policy expectations [5][6]. - It emphasizes the potential for policy announcements during the upcoming Financial Street Forum, which could further support market stability and growth [5][6]. - The report notes that the insurance sector is expected to outperform, with several companies already issuing profit increase announcements for the third quarter of 2025 [5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,514.23, with a decline of 2.22% over the week, while the non-bank index fell by 1.34% [8]. - The brokerage sector index decreased by 3.13%, whereas the insurance sector index increased by 3.65% [8]. Non-Bank Financial Data - As of October 17, 2025, the 10-year government bond yield was 1.82%, reflecting a decrease of 1.37 basis points [12]. - The average daily trading volume for the stock market was reported at 21,931.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.76% week-on-week [14]. Key Company Announcements - New China Life Insurance reported a projected net profit increase of 45% to 65% for the first three quarters of 2025, with expected profits between 299.86 billion yuan and 341.22 billion yuan [33][34]. - China Pacific Insurance also announced a projected net profit increase of 40% to 60% for the same period, driven by favorable market conditions [35]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading brokerage firms with strong competitive positions, such as GF Securities and CITIC Securities, as well as insurance companies with high growth potential like China Life and New China Life [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-bank financial industry, highlighting the potential for growth and investment opportunities [3]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the strong performance of non-bank financial institutions in Q3 2025, with significant profit increases expected for major players like New China Life and China Pacific Insurance [4][36]. - It notes the anticipated release of new policies during the 2025 Financial Street Forum, which could further support the market [4][15]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: strong comprehensive capabilities of leading institutions, firms with high earnings elasticity, and those with robust international business competitiveness [4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,514.23 with a decline of 2.22%, while the non-bank index closed at 1,977.98, down 1.34% [7]. - The brokerage sector saw a decline of 3.13%, while the insurance sector increased by 3.65% [7]. Non-Bank Industry Insights - In September 2025, new deposits from residents reached 2.96 trillion yuan, while non-bank institutions saw a decrease of 1.06 trillion yuan in new deposits [4]. - The report highlights the significant increase in new A-share accounts, indicating continued interest in equity markets [4]. Key Company Announcements - New China Life reported a projected net profit increase of 45% to 65% for Q3 2025, with expectations of a total profit of 299.86 billion to 341.22 billion yuan for the first three quarters [34]. - China Pacific Insurance also anticipates a net profit increase of 40% to 60% for the same period, driven by a stable economic environment and improved investment returns [36]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks of leading brokerages such as GF Securities, CITIC Securities, and Huatai Securities due to their strong market positions and growth potential [4]. - For insurance companies, it suggests focusing on undervalued stocks with high elasticity, including China Life, New China Life, and China Pacific Insurance [4].

Core Viewpoint - Ping An Insurance and its subsidiary Ping An Life have invested approximately HKD 173 million in H-shares of China Merchants Bank and Postal Savings Bank since October, indicating a strategic move to capitalize on the recent market corrections in the banking sector [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Details - Ping An and its subsidiary Ping An Life have increased their holdings in China Merchants Bank H-shares by approximately 2.99 million shares, investing around HKD 139 million, resulting in a holding ratio of about 17% [3]. - Additionally, they have acquired approximately 6.42 million shares of Postal Savings Bank H-shares, investing around HKD 34.41 million, which brings their holding ratio to approximately 17.01% [3]. Group 2: Market Context - The banking sector has experienced a decline of over 10% since July, with both China Merchants Bank and Postal Savings Bank H-shares seeing significant drops [4]. - The current external uncertainties in the global market have made financial sectors, particularly banks and insurance, preferred defensive assets for investors [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The trend of insurance capital increasing equity asset allocation is expected to continue, with banks remaining a focal point due to their high dividend yields [5]. - Research indicates that insurance capital is likely to further increase its holdings in bank stocks, particularly favoring large banks and those with regional advantages [5].

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing a resurgence, with significant gains in bank stocks and ETFs, indicating a positive market sentiment towards the industry [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 16, the bank sector has shown strength, with the bank ETF (512800) rising over 1% and achieving six consecutive days of gains, with a trading volume exceeding 400 million yuan in less than half a day [1]. - A total of 42 bank stocks in the A-share market mostly showed positive performance, with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank leading with an increase of over 2% [3]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Insurance capital has been actively buying bank stocks this year, driven by a low interest rate environment and policies encouraging long-term funds to enter the market [5]. - The bank ETF (512800) has seen a net inflow of 3.893 billion yuan over the past five days, reaching a new historical high in total assets of 18.496 billion yuan [5][7]. Group 3: ETF Characteristics - The bank ETF (512800) tracks the CSI Bank Index and includes 42 listed banks, making it an efficient investment tool for tracking the overall performance of the banking sector [7]. - The bank ETF remains the largest and most liquid among the 10 bank ETFs in A-shares, with an average daily trading volume exceeding 700 million yuan this year [7].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance sector in A-shares has shown strong performance, with New China Life Insurance leading the gains, reflecting a positive market sentiment and potential for valuation and earnings growth in the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On October 14, the A-share insurance sector rose significantly, with New China Life Insurance's stock price increasing by 5.34% to close at 65.5 yuan per share, resulting in a market capitalization of 204.33 billion yuan [1]. - Other major insurers also saw stock price increases, with China Pacific Insurance up 3.09% and China Life Insurance up 2.07% [1]. - The positive performance in A-shares also influenced Hong Kong-listed insurance stocks, with New China Life Insurance (HK) rising by 2.75% [1]. Group 2: Earnings Forecast - New China Life Insurance projected a net profit increase of 45% to 65% for the first three quarters of 2025, estimating a profit range of 29.986 billion to 34.122 billion yuan [2]. - The company expects its net profit excluding non-recurring items to grow by 40% to 60%, with an estimated range of 28.998 billion to 33.141 billion yuan [2]. - The growth is attributed to a focus on enhancing the value and quality of insurance business, optimizing asset allocation, and responding to the call for insurance capital to enter the market [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The insurance sector has been encouraged to increase equity investments, with policies aiming for large state-owned insurance companies to allocate 30% of new premiums to A-shares starting in 2025 [4]. - As of mid-2023, the total investment balance of insurance companies exceeded 36 trillion yuan, with a notable increase in stock investments [4]. - The shift towards equities is driven by the need to improve investment yields in a low-interest-rate environment, with a focus on balancing risk and return through diversified investment strategies [5][6].