证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 08 17 年 月 日 银行 本周聚焦—25Q2 银行经营数据&货币政策执行报告： 利润降幅收窄，信贷结构持续优化 一、25Q2 银行业主要监管指标 1）利润增速降幅收窄：25H1 商业银行累计净利润 1.24 万亿，同比下降 1.2%，较 25Q1 降幅收窄 1.1pc，其中非息收入占比较 25Q1 继续提升 0.8pc 至 25.8%，银行或通过出售部分存量债券以兑现收益。上半年国有 大行、股份行、城商行、农商行利润增速分别为 1.1%、-2.0%、-1.1%、 -7.9%，国有大行、股份行、城商行利润增速相较一季度均有改善，其中 城商行改善幅度最大，达 5.6pc。 2）规模增长提速：25Q2 商业银行资产同比增速为 8.88%，较 25Q1 提升 1.7pc，国有大行、股份行、城商行、农商行资产增速分别为 10.4%、5.0%、 10.2%、5.5%，国有大行资产增速较 25Q1 提升 3.1pc，主要受去年低基 数效应影响。 3）息差略微下降：25Q2 商业银行净息差为 1.42%，环比下降 1bp，息差 降幅较小，或主要得益于今年以来 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the banking sector, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [24]. Core Insights - The introduction of new VAT regulations on bond interest income is expected to favor older bonds, as they remain exempt from VAT, thus enhancing their attractiveness and potentially driving up their prices [2][3]. - The banking sector's dividend yield is projected to be around 3.8% in 2025, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of approximately 1.7%, highlighting the advantages of high-dividend assets in a declining interest rate environment [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic allocation within the banking sector, particularly focusing on state-owned banks and select regional banks with strong asset quality and dividend policies [8]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report notes a decline in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.94% and the ChiNext Index down by 0.74% during the week of July 28 to August 3, 2025 [7]. - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was 11,292.71 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 7.96% compared to the previous week [7]. Bond Market Impact - The new VAT regulations apply only to newly issued government bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds, while existing bonds continue to enjoy tax exemptions, making them more favorable for banks [2]. - The proportion of government and policy financial bonds held by major banks exceeds 70%, indicating a strong focus on these assets [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy focusing on high-dividend banks, particularly large state-owned banks and stable joint-stock banks like China Merchants Bank and CITIC Bank [8]. - It also highlights the potential for improved return on equity (ROE) in undervalued joint-stock banks, recommending attention to banks like Shanghai Pudong Development Bank [8]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key banks, with recommendations for several banks based on their projected performance [9]. - For instance, China Merchants Bank is expected to have an EPS of 5.86 yuan in 2025 with a PE ratio of 7.58, indicating a strong investment case [9].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking sector Core Insights - The banking wealth management market showed stable growth in the first half of 2025, with a total scale of 30.67 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.53% [1] - Cash management products continued to decline, with a scale of 6.4 trillion yuan, down 14.55% year-on-year, attributed to lower deposit rates and regulatory policies [1] - The market share of wealth management companies increased, with 32 companies holding 89.61% of the market by the end of Q2 2025, up 1.8 percentage points from the end of the previous year [2] - The asset allocation in wealth management products shifted, with a decrease in credit bond allocation and a notable increase in public fund allocation, which rose to 4.2% [3] - The average annualized yield of wealth management products was 2.12%, a decrease of 53 basis points compared to 2024, indicating a low-interest-rate environment [4] - The proportion of sales through parent banks has decreased to around 65%, as companies expand their distribution channels [5][8] Summary by Sections 1. Wealth Management Market Overview - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total scale of wealth management products reached 30.67 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.53% [1] - Cash management products saw a significant decline, with a scale of 6.4 trillion yuan, down 14.55% year-on-year [1] 2. Market Structure - The market share of wealth management companies increased to 89.61%, reflecting a concentration of market power among leading firms [2] 3. Asset Allocation - The allocation to credit bonds decreased, while public funds saw a significant increase, indicating a shift in investment strategy [3] 4. Yield Trends - The average annualized yield of wealth management products fell to 2.12%, continuing a downward trend since 2023 [4] 5. Distribution Channels - The share of sales through parent banks has decreased to approximately 65%, as firms diversify their distribution strategies [5][8] 6. Sector Outlook - The banking sector is expected to benefit from policy catalysts, with specific banks like Ningbo Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and others highlighted as potential investment opportunities [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [25]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in social financing scale, with June's new social financing reaching 4.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion yuan, and a social financing stock growth rate of 8.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [2][6]. - New RMB loans in June amounted to 2.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 110 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily driven by strong short-term loans, especially from enterprises [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the banking sector's configuration opportunities, suggesting that overall positions in banks are likely to increase due to medium to long-term capital inflows and public fund reforms [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Overview - In June, the new social financing scale was 4.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion yuan, and the social financing stock growth rate reached 8.9% [2][6]. - New RMB loans totaled 2.24 trillion yuan in June, with a year-on-year increase of 110 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in short-term loans [6][7]. Credit and Financing Trends - The report notes that credit has reversed its weakening trend from the second quarter, supported mainly by short-term loans to enterprises and improvements in household short-term loans [6][7]. - The increase in M1 growth rate to 4.6% in June and M2 growth rate rising to 8.3% reflects enhanced liquidity in the market [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the banking sector for investment, highlighting the ongoing mid-term investment value of major banks and the potential for absolute returns from banks with high dividend yields and strong asset quality [6][7]. - Specific banks to watch include state-owned large banks and stable joint-stock banks like China Merchants Bank and CITIC Bank, as well as regional banks with high provisioning coverage [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the banking sector, suggesting that certain stocks may benefit from policy catalysts and cyclical recovery [3]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that while tariff policies may cause short-term impacts on exports, long-term domestic policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, promoting consumption, and enhancing social welfare are expected to support economic growth [3]. - The banking sector is anticipated to benefit from these policies, with specific banks such as Ningbo Bank, Postal Savings Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Changshu Bank being recommended for investment [3]. - The report also emphasizes the potential for continued dividends from banks like Shanghai Bank, China Merchants Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Chongqing Bank, which are showing positive fundamental changes [3]. Summary by Sections Credit Growth - As of the end of May 2025, the overall loan growth rate in China was 6.6%, with household and corporate loans growing at 3.0% and 8.5% respectively [1]. - Provinces such as Sichuan, Jiangsu, and Anhui led in credit growth, with growth rates exceeding 9% [1][2]. - Corporate loans in Sichuan, Jiangsu, and Shandong showed impressive growth rates of 13.8%, 13.6%, and 13.4% respectively [2]. Key Data Tracking - The average daily trading volume in the stock market was 14,415.38 billion yuan, a decrease of 453.04 billion yuan from the previous week [4]. - The balance of margin financing and securities lending increased by 1.12% to 1.85 trillion yuan [5]. - The issuance of non-monetary funds decreased significantly, with a total of 53.28 billion yuan issued this week, down 273.46 billion yuan from the previous week [5]. Interest Rate Market Tracking - The issuance scale of interbank certificates of deposit was 2,435.10 billion yuan, a decrease of 4,828.40 billion yuan from the previous week [6]. - The average interest rate for interbank certificates of deposit was 1.62%, down 2 basis points from the previous week [10]. - The average yield on 10-year government bonds remained stable at 1.64% [10]. Sector Performance - The banking sector's performance is closely monitored, with specific stocks showing varying degrees of growth and decline [30]. - The report includes detailed charts tracking the performance of various financial stocks and their respective movements [30][36].

Market Performance - On July 1, A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.39% to 3457.75 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.11%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.24% [1] - The total trading volume in A-shares reached 1.5 trillion yuan [1] Banking Sector Insights - Bank stocks regained momentum, with Suzhou Bank rising over 5%, and both China Construction Bank and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank increasing by over 2% to reach new highs [1] - Among 42 banks listed, 39 are expected to distribute cash dividends in 2024 that exceed the previous year, with an overall increase in dividend payouts by 18.6 billion yuan [1] ETF Performance - Various banking ETFs, including Bank AH Preferred ETF and Bank ETF Index Fund, saw gains of over 1%, with year-to-date increases exceeding 16% [1] - Specific performance data for banking ETFs includes: - Bank AH Preferred ETF: +1.70% (YTD +23.70%) - Bank ETF Index Fund: +1.65% (YTD +17.33%) - Bank ETF: +1.52% (YTD +16.97%) [2] Fund Inflows - In June, there was a net inflow of funds into banking ETFs, with Bank ETF receiving 3.377 billion yuan, Bank ETF Tianhong 736 million yuan, and Bank AH Preferred ETF 411 million yuan [5][7] - The total net inflow into banking stocks reached 104.35 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 3.2% of the current free float market value of banks [9] Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest that the banking sector is benefiting from policy catalysts and that cyclical stocks may present alpha opportunities [10] - Specific banks to watch include: - For cyclical strategies: Ningbo Bank, Postal Savings Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Changshu Bank - For dividend strategies: Shanghai Bank, China Merchants Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Chongqing Bank, and others showing positive fundamental changes [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for bank stocks despite recent short-term corrections [4]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to maintain its performance due to the relative advantage of dividend yields, stable earnings, and predictable dividends. The average dividend yield for major state-owned banks is 4.07%, with a significant spread of 2.42% over the 10-year government bond yield, placing it in the 49.10th percentile over the past decade [1][17]. - The report highlights that the insurance sector is likely to increase its allocation to high-dividend bank stocks, especially with anticipated reductions in preset interest rates for insurance products [1]. - The report anticipates a stable profit growth for banks, with a projected profit growth rate of 2.35% for listed banks in 2024, supported by substantial unrealized gains from self-owned bonds and a robust provisioning coverage ratio of 238% as of Q1 2025 [3][7]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - The banking index experienced a nearly 3% decline on June 27, 2025, but the overall market sentiment remains positive due to the sector's dividend yield advantages and stable earnings [1]. Section 2: Fund Flows - Since the beginning of 2025, southbound funds have significantly increased their allocation to Hong Kong bank stocks, with a net inflow of approximately 680 billion yuan, of which 146.2 billion yuan is directed towards bank stocks [2]. Section 3: Earnings Stability - Historical data indicates that the banking sector has low earnings volatility, with profits showing stable positive growth. The report emphasizes the importance of unrealized gains from bond investments and strong provisioning as key factors supporting profit stability [3][7][8]. Section 4: Sector Outlook - The report suggests that while short-term export impacts may arise from tariff policies, long-term domestic policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and boosting consumption will benefit the banking sector. Specific banks such as Ningbo Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and China Merchants Bank are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [9]. Section 5: Key Data Tracking - The report includes various financial metrics, such as the average daily trading volume of stocks at 14,868.42 billion yuan and a margin balance of 1.83 trillion yuan, indicating active market engagement [10].

Group 1 - Insurance capital frequently purchases bank stocks, with Ping An Life increasing its holdings in China Merchants Bank H-shares to 647 million shares, accounting for over 14% of the total H-shares [1] - The A-share market sees a collective rise in bank stocks, with Minsheng Bank and Zheshang Bank rising over 3%, while several other banks reach historical highs [1] - Various bank ETFs have shown strong performance, with China Merchants Bank ETF up over 18% year-to-date, and other bank ETFs also exceeding 10% gains [1][3] Group 2 - As of June 6, the average dividend yield for listed banks is 4.14%, with state-owned banks yielding between 4.3% and 5%, and several city commercial banks exceeding 4.5% [5] - The dividend distribution schedule has been advanced this year, with many banks completing their annual dividend distributions earlier than in previous years [5] Group 3 - The banking sector has experienced a recovery since the end of 2023, with a cumulative increase of 55%, driven primarily by valuation recovery and high dividend yields [6] - New funding drivers for the banking sector include insurance capital favoring high-dividend banks, estimated incremental funds of 200 billion yuan from insurance premiums, and potential increases from public fund reforms [6] Group 4 - The banking sector is expected to benefit from expansionary policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, with specific banks like Ningbo Bank and Postal Savings Bank highlighted for their potential [7] - The dividend strategy remains sustainable, with banks such as Shanghai Bank and Jiangsu Bank being noted for their positive fundamentals [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [7] Core Insights - The average dividend yield for listed banks is 4.14% as of June 6, 2025, with state-owned banks yielding between 4.3% and 5% [2][3] - The dividend payout ratios for several banks have increased compared to 2023, indicating a positive trend in shareholder returns [1][2] - The banking sector is expected to benefit from expansionary policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, which may enhance investment opportunities [3] Summary by Sections Dividend Distribution - As of June 6, 2025, 11 banks have completed their annual dividend distributions, with notable early payouts in April and May, compared to previous years [1] - Some banks have increased their annual dividend payout ratios, such as Ningbo Bank (+6.4%), Xi'an Bank (+7.3%), and others [1] Sector Performance - The banking sector is projected to benefit from government policies aimed at economic stabilization, with specific banks like Ningbo Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and others highlighted as potential investment opportunities [3] - The report emphasizes the stability of bank profits and the long-term value of dividends, making the sector attractive for medium to long-term investments [2] Key Data Tracking - The average daily trading volume for stocks reached 12,089.75 billion yuan, reflecting an increase from the previous week [4] - The balance of margin financing and securities lending increased by 0.13% to 1.81 trillion yuan [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is witnessing a strong performance in bank stocks, driven by favorable regulatory changes and increased interest from institutional investors, particularly public funds and insurance companies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Bank stocks in the A-share market have shown resilience, with Qingdao Bank rising nearly 4% and several other banks, including Hu'nong Commercial Bank and Xiamen Bank, increasing over 2% [1]. - Multiple bank ETFs have also seen gains, indicating a positive sentiment towards the banking sector [1]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes and Fund Flows - The implementation of new public fund regulations is expected to increase the allocation of funds to bank stocks, as the performance benchmarks for funds are likely to align more closely with the index weight of banks [1]. - As of the end of 2024, the proportion of bank holdings in actively managed equity funds is only 3.35%, significantly lower than the 13.67% weight of banks in the CSI 300 index [1]. Group 3: Insurance Capital Inflow - Insurance companies are being encouraged to increase their equity investments, with bank stocks being a preferred choice due to their defensive characteristics and stable dividends [2]. - The increase in insurance companies' holdings in bank stocks is expected to provide additional capital inflow into the banking sector [2]. Group 4: Investment Strategies and Outlook - Analysts suggest that the long-term investment value of bank stocks remains strong, with high dividend yields and solid asset quality providing a favorable risk-reward profile [2][3]. - The ongoing economic structural transformation is anticipated to enhance the fundamentals and valuations of banks with solid customer bases and excellent risk control [3]. - The stability of bank earnings is expected to continue, supported by robust asset quality and sufficient provisions, which will help maintain resilience in the banking sector [3].