交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2026年1月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 1、基本面：ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应过剩163万吨。DATAGRO:25/26年度全球食糖过剩预 计从之前的280万吨下调至100万吨。Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8 月份预估高出120万吨。StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩370万吨。2025年10月底，25/26 年度本期制糖全国累计产糖88.3万吨；全国累计销糖9.16万吨；销糖率10.37%。2025年11月中国 进口食糖44万吨，同比减少9万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计11.44万 ...

2025 年 12 月 29 日 白糖：市场氛围偏强 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 15.17 | -0.13 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 9 | -86 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5360 | 10 | 59 价差（元/吨） | -6 | 2 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5285 | 16 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 75 | -6 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：贵金属等大幅上涨，商品氛围偏强。截至 12 月 15 日，25 /26 榨季印度食糖产量同比增加 28.3%。巴西 11 月出口 330 万吨，同比减少 9 万吨。中国 11 月进口食糖 44 万吨（-9 万吨）。关注中国糖浆 和预拌粉进口政策变化。 期 货 研 究 期货研究 国内市场：CAOC 预计 25/26 榨季国内食糖产量为 1170 ...

加3家。不过11月食糖进口量环比、同比均减少，进口糖进度明显放缓，海关总署公布的数据显示，2025年 数据来源第三方(同花顺、wind)，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 11月份，我国食糖进口量为44万吨，环比减少31万吨或41.3%，同比下滑18.2%。但外盘价格反弹，短期 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 糖价跟涨为主。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 白糖产业日报 2025-12-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖周报（12.15-12.19） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 本周回顾： 白糖本周继续创出新低，价格加速下跌。05主力到达5000关口附近，关注能否止跌反弹。 ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应过剩163万吨。DATAGRO:25/26年度全球食糖过剩预计从之前的 280万吨下调至100万吨。Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8月份预估高 出120万吨。StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩370万吨。2025年10月底，25/26年度本期制 糖全国累计产糖88.3万吨；全国累计销糖9.16万吨；销糖率10.37%。2025年11月中国进口食糖44 万吨，同比减少9万吨；10月进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计11.55万吨，同比减 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监会许可【2012】31号 入 期 ITG国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 客 服 热 线 官 方 网 站 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 市 市 肃 有 译 风 ITG国贸期货 白糖数据日报 | 1 | | | 农产品中心 | 期货从业资格证号 | | 投资咨询证号 | 2025/12/3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 谢威 | F03087820 | | Z0019508 | | | | | 地区 | 2025/12/2 | 涨跌值 | 升贴水 | 与2601基差 | 涨跌值 | | 国 | 广西 | 南宁仓库 | 5565 | -20 | 0 | 183 | 3 | | | 山东 | 日照 | 5750 | 0 | 100 | 268 | 23 | | 数 盘 | | SR01 | 5382 | -23 | | | | | 据 面 | | SRO5 | 5316 | -17 | SR01-05 | ୧୧ | -6 | | | 人 ...

期货研究报告 | 农产品组 行业研究报告 回顾 2025 年的内外糖价走势，市场整体围绕 25/26 榨季全球食糖供应增加预期进行交易，全年呈现出震荡下跌的走势。内盘大方 向跟随外盘，阶段性的价格强弱主要受到国内产销进度及国内政策的影响…… 全球过剩预期增强，内外糖价持续承压 农产品组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 邓绍瑞 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 白旭宇 从业资格号：F03114139 投资咨询号：Z0023055 全球过剩预期增强，内外糖价持续承压 研究院 农产品组 研究员 薛钧元 从业资格号：F03114096 投资咨询号：Z0023045 华泰期货研究院农产品研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 期货研究报告 | 白糖年报 2025-11-30 邓绍瑞 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 白旭宇 010-64405 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with different institutions having varying forecasts for the surplus volume. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar has a short - term technical rebound trend, and considering the approaching delivery of the 01 contract, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract, with an intraday trading idea of slightly bullish and oscillating. [4][5][9] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: ISO predicts a global sugar surplus of 163 tons in the 25/26 season, DATAGRO reduces the surplus forecast to 100 tons, Czarnikow raises it to 740 tons, and StoneX predicts a surplus of 370 tons. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 1116.21 million tons, cumulative sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons, and imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons. [4] - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price is 5610, and the basis for the 05 contract is 285, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. [6] - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons. [6] - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average. [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position has increased, and the main trend is bearish. [6] - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors include increased global sugar production, a global surplus in the new season, the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of foreign sugar prices to around 14 cents per pound, and increased import impact. [7] - **Expectation**: Foreign sugar has started a short - term rebound, and domestic Zhengzhou sugar has slightly rebounded. Considering the approaching delivery of the 01 contract, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract, and there may be a short - term technical rebound trend, with an intraday trading idea of slightly bullish and oscillating. [5][9] 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **25/26 Season Supply - Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply - demand balance in the 25/26 season. For example, ISO predicts a surplus of 163 tons, StoneX predicts a surplus of 277 tons, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 740 tons, and Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 420 tons. [4][9][34] - **China's Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024/25 to 2025/26 (November forecast), the sugar production is expected to increase from 9.96 million tons to 11.7 million tons, consumption will be around 15.7 - 15.9 million tons, and the balance will change from a deficit of 940,000 tons to a surplus of 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is predicted to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton. [36] - **Import Cost of Processed Raw Sugar**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imports was about 5086 yuan per ton, with considerable import profits. [42] 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, putting downward pressure on raw sugar prices. The supply pressure of domestic new crops has increased year-on-year. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will face upward pressure and mainly follow the trend of raw sugar [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Sugar Spot Market - In Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi, the closing price on November 24, 2025, was 5615, with a decline of 60, a basis of 245 against SR01, and a decline of 77 in the basis [4] - In Rizhao, Shandong, the closing price was 5800, with no change, an ascension and discount of 100, a basis of 330 against SR01, and a decline of 17 in the basis [4] 3.2 Domestic Sugar Futures Market - The closing price of SR01 was 5370, with an increase of 17; the closing price of SR05 was 5319, with an increase of 17; the spread between SR01 - 05 was 51, with no change [4] 3.3 Exchange Rate and International Commodity Market - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1236, with a decline of 0.0081; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818, with an increase of 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084, with a decline of 0.0004 [4] - The price of ICE raw sugar main contract was 14.77, with no change; the price of London white sugar main contract was 573, with an increase of 3; the price of Brent crude oil main contract was 62.51, with no change [4] 3.4 Other Data - The domestic white sugar industrial inventory was 2000 (no unit specified) [4] - The profit of Brazilian sugar imported without tariff quota was shown in the range of - 2500 to 1500 (no unit specified) [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar prices in China started a catch - up decline, with spot prices dropping significantly due to the impact of imported sugar. The full - tariff price of imported sugar is around 5100 - 5200, and there is still room for the futures price to fall. After a rapid decline, there may be a rebound. It's advisable to be cautiously bearish, avoid chasing short positions, and consider reducing profitable short positions taken earlier [5]. - Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season, with estimates ranging from 100,000 to 740,000 tons [5]. - The external sugar market is weak, and the profit margin for out - of - quota imported sugar is large, leading to a significant increase in imports in October. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 01 has recently caught up with the decline and reached a new low. Considering the approaching delivery, it is recommended to shift trading to the 05 contract. After a short - term rapid decline, a technical rebound is possible, and short - term short positions can be partially reduced for profit [5]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the sugar market. Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production and the expected supply surplus in the new season, as well as the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of external sugar prices to around 14 cents per pound [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Prompt - For SR2601, the price is 5353, the basis is 317, the import price difference is - 246, and the state reserve inventory is about 7 million tons. For SR2605, the price is 5302, with a change of - 60, the import price after processing of raw sugar (50% tariff) is 5107, the basis is 368, the import price difference is - 195, and the import quota is 1.945 million tons. For SR2609, the price in Liuzhou is 5321, the basis is 349, and the import price difference is - 214. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons, and imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [8]. - Mid - term view: The domestic sugar supply - demand balance sheet shows a gap, but the gap is decreasing in the medium - to - long - term. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 5700. Since January 2025, the tariff on imported syrup has increased, approaching the out - of - quota import tariff of raw sugar. The long - term view is bullish on sugar due to the approval of the cola formula change [8]. - Short - term view: Bullish on sugar. Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global sugar supply and demand forecasts for the 25/26 season from different institutions: ISO predicts a surplus of 163,000 tons; StoneX predicts a surplus of 277,000 tons; Czarnikow has raised the surplus forecast to 740,000 tons; DATAGRO has revised the surplus forecast down from 280,000 to 100,000 tons [5][8]. - As of the end of August 2025, in the 24/25 season, the cumulative sugar production in China was 1.11621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 1 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons, and imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [5][8]. - China's sugar supply - demand balance sheet: In the 25/26 season (November forecast), the sugarcane planting area is 1.439 million hectares, the sugar production is 1.17 million tons, the import volume is 500,000 tons, the consumption is 1.57 million tons, and the export volume is 18,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [36]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.

Report Title - Guoxin Futures' 2026 Investment Strategy Report: Bear Market Continues, Sugar Prices Seeking Bottom [1][2] Core Views - In the 2025/26 season, the global sugar market shifts from shortage to surplus. The market is bearish, but negative factors may be digested in advance. Sugar prices may rebound if the supply fails to meet expectations due to weather issues. Low sugar prices may dampen production willingness next year [2][47] - In the domestic market, sugar production is expected to increase for two consecutive years in the 2025/26 season. Imports are likely to remain high, and consumption is expected to stay stable. Sugar prices are on a downward trend and may reverse when supply contracts [3][48] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review International Market - **High-level oscillation (January - April)**: ICE raw sugar prices rebounded to 20.19 cents/pound at the beginning of the year, supported by India's lower-than-expected production. However, with Brazil's new harvest season and other factors, prices fell [4] - **Trend decline (April - early July)**: ICE raw sugar prices dropped from 18.5 cents/pound to 15.44 cents/pound, driven by Brazil's expected bumper harvest and other factors [4] - **Sideways consolidation (July - early October)**: After breaking below 16 cents/pound, prices rebounded and oscillated. Short-term positives supported prices, such as Brazil's increased ethanol blending ratio [5] - **Bottom-seeking stage (mid-October - end of the year)**: Prices fell again, hitting a five-year low of 14.04 cents/pound in early November, due to increased supply from major producers [5] Domestic Market - **High-level oscillation (January - late April)**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices reached a high of 6198 yuan/ton, supported by good domestic sales data. However, concerns about global supply limited the upside [8] - **Periodic decline (May - June)**: Prices dropped from above 6000 yuan/ton to around 5600 yuan/ton, driven by expectations of increased global supply [8] - **Oscillatory rebound (mid-June - late July)**: Prices rebounded to 5893 yuan/ton, as short-term factors such as reduced Brazilian production and low domestic inventories supported the market [9] - **Bottom-seeking stage (August - end of the year)**: Prices fell below 5400 yuan/ton, pressured by international supply and high domestic imports [9] 2. International Market Analysis Global Supply Shift - In the 2025/26 season, global sugar production may reach the second-highest level on record. Consumption is expected to grow slightly, and most institutions predict a surplus of 40 - 750 tons [10] Brazil - In the 2025/26 season, Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach 4500 tons, a historical second-lowest. The 2026/27 season is expected to be good, with a preliminary estimate of 4200 tons. High inventories and low prices may keep export pressure high [15][18] India - In the 2025/26 season, India's sugar production is expected to increase to 3095 tons. Consumption is expected to reach 2900 tons. The government allows 150 tons of exports, but the possibility is low [20][22] Thailand - In the 2025/26 season, Thailand's sugar production may reach 1100 tons, and exports are expected to exceed 800 tons. However, floods and import bans may affect production and exports [24][28] 3. Domestic Market Analysis Inventory Accumulation - In the 2025/26 season, China's sugar production is expected to be 1170 tons, and consumption is expected to be 1570 tons. The market faces inventory accumulation and remains in a bear market [30] Production Increase - In the 2025/26 season, domestic sugar production is expected to increase to over 1170 tons. Guangxi, Yunnan, and other regions are expected to contribute to the increase, but weather and other factors may affect the final output [32] Import Situation - In the 2025/26 season, imports are likely to remain high, but policy changes need attention. The import of syrup and premixed powder is expected to decline, but "roundabout" imports may occur [36][42] Consumption and Policy - Overall sugar consumption is expected to be stable, supported by consumption stimulus policies. In 2026, relevant policies are expected to continue to play a role [43]