期货研究报告 | 农产品组 行业研究报告 回顾 2025 年的内外糖价走势，市场整体围绕 25/26 榨季全球食糖供应增加预期进行交易，全年呈现出震荡下跌的走势。内盘大方 向跟随外盘，阶段性的价格强弱主要受到国内产销进度及国内政策的影响…… 全球过剩预期增强，内外糖价持续承压 农产品组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 邓绍瑞 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 白旭宇 从业资格号：F03114139 投资咨询号：Z0023055 全球过剩预期增强，内外糖价持续承压 研究院 农产品组 研究员 薛钧元 从业资格号：F03114096 投资咨询号：Z0023045 华泰期货研究院农产品研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 期货研究报告 | 白糖年报 2025-11-30 邓绍瑞 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 白旭宇 010-64405 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 1、基本面：ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应过剩163万吨。DATAGRO:25/26年度全球食糖过剩预 计从之前的280万吨下调至100万吨。Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8 月份预估高出120万吨。StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩370万吨。2025年8月底，24/25 年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨；全国累计销糖1000万吨；销糖率89.6%。2025年10月中 国进口食糖75万吨，同比增加21万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计11.55万吨，同比减少11.05 万吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, putting downward pressure on raw sugar prices. The supply pressure of domestic new crops has increased year-on-year. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will face upward pressure and mainly follow the trend of raw sugar [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Sugar Spot Market - In Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi, the closing price on November 24, 2025, was 5615, with a decline of 60, a basis of 245 against SR01, and a decline of 77 in the basis [4] - In Rizhao, Shandong, the closing price was 5800, with no change, an ascension and discount of 100, a basis of 330 against SR01, and a decline of 17 in the basis [4] 3.2 Domestic Sugar Futures Market - The closing price of SR01 was 5370, with an increase of 17; the closing price of SR05 was 5319, with an increase of 17; the spread between SR01 - 05 was 51, with no change [4] 3.3 Exchange Rate and International Commodity Market - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1236, with a decline of 0.0081; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818, with an increase of 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084, with a decline of 0.0004 [4] - The price of ICE raw sugar main contract was 14.77, with no change; the price of London white sugar main contract was 573, with an increase of 3; the price of Brent crude oil main contract was 62.51, with no change [4] 3.4 Other Data - The domestic white sugar industrial inventory was 2000 (no unit specified) [4] - The profit of Brazilian sugar imported without tariff quota was shown in the range of - 2500 to 1500 (no unit specified) [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar prices in China started a catch - up decline, with spot prices dropping significantly due to the impact of imported sugar. The full - tariff price of imported sugar is around 5100 - 5200, and there is still room for the futures price to fall. After a rapid decline, there may be a rebound. It's advisable to be cautiously bearish, avoid chasing short positions, and consider reducing profitable short positions taken earlier [5]. - Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season, with estimates ranging from 100,000 to 740,000 tons [5]. - The external sugar market is weak, and the profit margin for out - of - quota imported sugar is large, leading to a significant increase in imports in October. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 01 has recently caught up with the decline and reached a new low. Considering the approaching delivery, it is recommended to shift trading to the 05 contract. After a short - term rapid decline, a technical rebound is possible, and short - term short positions can be partially reduced for profit [5]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the sugar market. Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production and the expected supply surplus in the new season, as well as the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of external sugar prices to around 14 cents per pound [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Prompt - For SR2601, the price is 5353, the basis is 317, the import price difference is - 246, and the state reserve inventory is about 7 million tons. For SR2605, the price is 5302, with a change of - 60, the import price after processing of raw sugar (50% tariff) is 5107, the basis is 368, the import price difference is - 195, and the import quota is 1.945 million tons. For SR2609, the price in Liuzhou is 5321, the basis is 349, and the import price difference is - 214. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons, and imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [8]. - Mid - term view: The domestic sugar supply - demand balance sheet shows a gap, but the gap is decreasing in the medium - to - long - term. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 5700. Since January 2025, the tariff on imported syrup has increased, approaching the out - of - quota import tariff of raw sugar. The long - term view is bullish on sugar due to the approval of the cola formula change [8]. - Short - term view: Bullish on sugar. Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global sugar supply and demand forecasts for the 25/26 season from different institutions: ISO predicts a surplus of 163,000 tons; StoneX predicts a surplus of 277,000 tons; Czarnikow has raised the surplus forecast to 740,000 tons; DATAGRO has revised the surplus forecast down from 280,000 to 100,000 tons [5][8]. - As of the end of August 2025, in the 24/25 season, the cumulative sugar production in China was 1.11621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 1 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons, and imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [5][8]. - China's sugar supply - demand balance sheet: In the 25/26 season (November forecast), the sugarcane planting area is 1.439 million hectares, the sugar production is 1.17 million tons, the import volume is 500,000 tons, the consumption is 1.57 million tons, and the export volume is 18,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [36]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.

Report Title - Guoxin Futures' 2026 Investment Strategy Report: Bear Market Continues, Sugar Prices Seeking Bottom [1][2] Core Views - In the 2025/26 season, the global sugar market shifts from shortage to surplus. The market is bearish, but negative factors may be digested in advance. Sugar prices may rebound if the supply fails to meet expectations due to weather issues. Low sugar prices may dampen production willingness next year [2][47] - In the domestic market, sugar production is expected to increase for two consecutive years in the 2025/26 season. Imports are likely to remain high, and consumption is expected to stay stable. Sugar prices are on a downward trend and may reverse when supply contracts [3][48] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review International Market - **High-level oscillation (January - April)**: ICE raw sugar prices rebounded to 20.19 cents/pound at the beginning of the year, supported by India's lower-than-expected production. However, with Brazil's new harvest season and other factors, prices fell [4] - **Trend decline (April - early July)**: ICE raw sugar prices dropped from 18.5 cents/pound to 15.44 cents/pound, driven by Brazil's expected bumper harvest and other factors [4] - **Sideways consolidation (July - early October)**: After breaking below 16 cents/pound, prices rebounded and oscillated. Short-term positives supported prices, such as Brazil's increased ethanol blending ratio [5] - **Bottom-seeking stage (mid-October - end of the year)**: Prices fell again, hitting a five-year low of 14.04 cents/pound in early November, due to increased supply from major producers [5] Domestic Market - **High-level oscillation (January - late April)**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices reached a high of 6198 yuan/ton, supported by good domestic sales data. However, concerns about global supply limited the upside [8] - **Periodic decline (May - June)**: Prices dropped from above 6000 yuan/ton to around 5600 yuan/ton, driven by expectations of increased global supply [8] - **Oscillatory rebound (mid-June - late July)**: Prices rebounded to 5893 yuan/ton, as short-term factors such as reduced Brazilian production and low domestic inventories supported the market [9] - **Bottom-seeking stage (August - end of the year)**: Prices fell below 5400 yuan/ton, pressured by international supply and high domestic imports [9] 2. International Market Analysis Global Supply Shift - In the 2025/26 season, global sugar production may reach the second-highest level on record. Consumption is expected to grow slightly, and most institutions predict a surplus of 40 - 750 tons [10] Brazil - In the 2025/26 season, Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach 4500 tons, a historical second-lowest. The 2026/27 season is expected to be good, with a preliminary estimate of 4200 tons. High inventories and low prices may keep export pressure high [15][18] India - In the 2025/26 season, India's sugar production is expected to increase to 3095 tons. Consumption is expected to reach 2900 tons. The government allows 150 tons of exports, but the possibility is low [20][22] Thailand - In the 2025/26 season, Thailand's sugar production may reach 1100 tons, and exports are expected to exceed 800 tons. However, floods and import bans may affect production and exports [24][28] 3. Domestic Market Analysis Inventory Accumulation - In the 2025/26 season, China's sugar production is expected to be 1170 tons, and consumption is expected to be 1570 tons. The market faces inventory accumulation and remains in a bear market [30] Production Increase - In the 2025/26 season, domestic sugar production is expected to increase to over 1170 tons. Guangxi, Yunnan, and other regions are expected to contribute to the increase, but weather and other factors may affect the final output [32] Import Situation - In the 2025/26 season, imports are likely to remain high, but policy changes need attention. The import of syrup and premixed powder is expected to decline, but "roundabout" imports may occur [36][42] Consumption and Policy - Overall sugar consumption is expected to be stable, supported by consumption stimulus policies. In 2026, relevant policies are expected to continue to play a role [43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the 2025/26 season due to favorable weather in major Asian producing countries, causing ICE raw sugar futures to decline on Wednesday. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures fell 0.04 cents, or 0.30%, to settle at 14.66 cents per pound [2]. - The China Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicts that China's sugar production in the 2025/26 season will reach 11.7 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons from last month's forecast. This is mainly due to a slight increase in the national sugar - cane planting area, good growth of southern sugar - cane, and a slight increase in the sugar content of northern sugar - beets. Currently, 26 sugar mills in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production, with an estimated total output of 1.4 million tons. Five sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, and nine in Guangxi have started production, 17 fewer than the same period last year. Recent continuous rainfall in the production areas has delayed the start of production. However, sugar imports increased significantly in October, and sugar prices are expected to remain low in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract was 5,366 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 402,945 lots, an increase of 14,936 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 7,982, a decrease of 446. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 57,812 lots. The total effective warehouse receipt forecast was 183, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,032 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 5,107 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,222 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan; that of Brazilian sugar was 4,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,555 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan; in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,740 yuan/ton, unchanged; and in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - cane planting area was 1.48 million hectares, an increase of 60,000 hectares. The planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835,090 hectares, a decrease of 12,860 hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 5.49%. The cumulative sales of cane sugar in Guangxi were 6.0229 million tons, an increase of 26.66%. The cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan was 2.4188 million tons, unchanged. Brazil's total sugar exports were 4.205 million tons, an increase of 959,200 tons. The monthly sugar import volume was 750,000 tons, an increase of 200,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume was 3.16 million tons, an increase of 550,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 539,100 tons, an increase of 85,000 tons. The monthly output of soft drinks was 15.917 million tons, a decrease of 1.841 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 7.48%, an increase of 1.05 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options was 7.48%, an increase of 1.06 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility was 7.35%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points, and the 60 - day historical volatility was 7.02%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In October 2025, China imported 35,900 tons of aqueous solutions of cane or beet sugar (HS code 17029011), 1,700 tons of other solid sugars, syrups, artificial honey, and caramel without added flavors or colorants (HS code 17029090), and 29,700 tons of flavored or colored aqueous solutions of cane or beet sugar (HS code 21069061), with a total of 67,300 tons for the three types of syrups. The import of simple solid mixtures of cane sugar, beet sugar, and other sugars with a sucrose content of over 50% (HS code 17029012) was 3,200 tons, and that of mixtures with other food raw materials (HS code 21069062) was 45,000 tons, with a total of 48,200 tons for the two types of premixes. The total import of the above - mentioned various types was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: November 11, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220), Reviewed by Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Group 2: Sugar Market Core View - International ICE raw sugar rose to 14.26 cents/pound due to the expected end of the US government shutdown and high domestic prices in India suppressing exports, but there is a long - term pressure of a 2.8 million - ton global sugar surplus in the 2025/26 season. In the domestic market, new sugar quotes are firm and old sugar inventory clearance support the futures prices, but the expected increase in production, off - season consumption, and sufficient supply limit the upside. The market is watching the breakthrough of the 5,500 yuan/ton resistance level [3]. Price and Spread - Sugar futures prices: SR01 closed at 5,480 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.09% and a weekly decrease of 0.02%; SR03 at 5,442 yuan/ton (0.18% daily, - 0.24% weekly); SR05 at 5,411 yuan/ton (0.11% daily, - 0.37% weekly); SR07 at 5,410 yuan/ton (0.13% daily, - 0.4% weekly); SR09 at 5,404 yuan/ton (0.02% daily, - 0.57% weekly); SR11 at 5,470 yuan/ton (1.11% daily, 1.03% weekly); SB at 14.26 cents/pound (0.92% daily, 0.35% weekly); W at 409.3 (0.84% daily, 0.74% weekly) [4]. - Sugar price spreads: SR01 - 05 was 70 (up 10 daily, 4 weekly); SR05 - 09 was 2 (up 3 daily, 3 weekly); SR09 - 01 was - 72 (down 13 daily, 7 weekly); SR01 - 03 was 43 (up 6 daily, 4 weekly); SR03 - 05 was 27 (up 4 daily, 0 weekly); SR05 - 07 was 2 (0 daily, down 2 weekly); SR07 - 09 was 0 (up 3 daily, 5 weekly); SR09 - 11 was - 7 (down 5 daily, 71 weekly); SR11 - 01 was - 65 (down 8 daily, 64 weekly) [4]. Basis - Nanning - SR01 basis was 285 (down 18 daily, up 34 weekly); Nanning - SR03 was 328 (down 12 daily, up 38 weekly); Nanning - SR05 was 355 (down 8 daily, up 38 weekly); Nanning - SR07 was 357 (down 8 daily, up 36 weekly); Nanning - SR09 was 357 (down 5 daily, up 41 weekly); Nanning - SR11 was 350 (down 10 daily, down 30 weekly). Kunming - SR01 basis was 175 (down 18 daily, down 21 weekly); Kunming - SR03 was 218 (down 12 daily, down 17 weekly); Kunming - SR05 was 245 (down 8 daily, down 17 weekly); Kunming - SR07 was 247 (down 8 daily, down 19 weekly); Kunming - SR09 was 247 (down 5 daily, down 14 weekly); Kunming - SR11 was 240 (down 10 daily, down 85 weekly) [11]. Import Price and Profit - Brazilian import price: Quota - within was 3,947 yuan/ton (down 20 daily, 59 weekly), over - quota was 4,996 yuan/ton (down 26 daily, 77 weekly). Thai import price: Quota - within was 4,002 yuan/ton (down 21 daily, 69 weekly), over - quota was 5,068 yuan/ton (down 27 daily, 90 weekly) [14]. Group 3: Cotton Market Core View - In the short - term, market sentiment may improve due to China - US trade consultations. The new cotton production in southern Xinjiang is lower than expected, and the purchase price is relatively firm. However, the overall domestic new cotton production is still high, and downstream demand is mediocre. Cotton prices lack upward momentum and may fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800 yuan/ton and the subsequent new - season production determination [16]. Price and Spread - Cotton futures prices: Cotton 01 closed at 13,560 yuan/ton (down 20, - 0.15%); Cotton 05 at 13,560 yuan/ton (down 20, - 0.15%); Cotton 09 at 13,735 yuan/ton (down 20, - 0.15%); Cotton yarn 01 at 19,855 yuan/ton (down 10, - 0.05%); Cotton yarn 05 was 0 (down 19,860, - 100%); Cotton yarn 09 was 0 (0, - 100%) [17]. - Cotton price spreads: Cotton basis was 1,282 (up 18); Cotton 01 - 05 was 0 (0); Cotton 05 - 09 was - 175 (0); Cotton 09 - 01 was 175 (0); Cotton - yarn spread was 6,280 (up 15); Domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,872 (up 100); Domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 616 (0) [17]. Group 4: Apple Market Core View - The ground trading of new - season late Fuji apples is coming to an end, mainly concentrated in Shandong and Shanxi. The cold - storage warehousing work is in the later stage. In Shandong's Qixia and Zhaoyuan, not all apples have been harvested, there are many buyers, and striped apples are on the market. In terms of warehousing progress, cold - storages in Gansu have started to sell, Shaanxi's warehousing is almost finished, and in Qixia's western towns in Shandong, a large amount of farmers' apples are still being warehoused [20]. Price and Spread - Apple futures prices: AP01 closed at 9,229 yuan/ton (0.76% daily, 4.15% weekly); AP03 at 9,132 yuan/ton (0.43% daily, 2.0% weekly); AP04 at 9,211 yuan/ton (0.29% daily, 1.69% weekly); AP05 at 9,289 yuan/ton (0.31% daily, 1.94% weekly); AP10 at 8,389 yuan/ton (0.35% daily, 2.08% weekly); AP11 at 8,875 yuan/ton (0.85% daily, 1.22% weekly); AP12 at 9,179 yuan/ton (0.75% daily, 4.09% weekly) [21]. - Apple price spreads: AP01 - 05 was - 101 (- 7.34% daily, - 72.70% weekly); AP05 - 10 was 900 (4.77% daily, - 18.18% weekly); AP10 - 01 was - 799 (6.53% daily, 9.45% weekly); Main - contract basis was - 352 (28.47% daily, 214.29% weekly) [22]. Group 5: Red Date Market Core View - New - season red dates are about to enter the concentrated harvest stage. The current new - season production is the core point of market game. There is indeed a production reduction in southern Xinjiang, but the reduction amplitude is difficult to determine. Affected by factors such as moisture and single - date weight, farmers' estimates of production are prone to偏差. In the short - term, red date prices fluctuate greatly under capital game. With the start of the purchase season and production reduction, the downside space may be limited. Attention should be paid to the subsequent commodity rate and purchase situation of new dates [26]. Price Spread - Red date futures spreads: Red date 01 - 05 spread, 05 - 09 spread, and 09 - 01 spread data are presented graphically, showing their historical trends from 2021 - 2025 [27][29].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The global sugar market is under pressure due to increased supply and demand concerns, with ICE raw sugar futures hitting a near - five - year low. In the domestic market, the supply of northern beet sugar will gradually increase in the short term, and the import volume of sugar is expected to exceed 500 tons this year, with significant pressure from later imports. Downstream demand is seasonally declining. However, the futures price is supported by cost, and the price is expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5483 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan; the main contract position is 400,036 lots, down 1562 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 7695, down 100; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 74,205 lots, up 4811 lots [2]. - The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 586, unchanged; the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4135 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4194 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan [2]. - The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 5241 yuan/ton, down 92 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5319 yuan/ton, down 91 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5720 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Nanning is 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou is 5780 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons [2]. - The cumulative national sugar sales volume is 999.98 million tons, up 44.98 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 89.99%, up 1% [2]. - The monthly import volume of sugar is 550,000 tons, down 280,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil is 324.58 million tons, down 49.82 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current Liuzhou sugar price (within quota) is 1410 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1351 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current Liuzhou sugar price (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 304 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 226 yuan/ton, up 87 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 53.91 million tons, up 8.5 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1591.7 million tons, down 184.1 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.85%, down 1.32%; that of put options is 7.85%, down 1.37% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.68%, down 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.1%, down 0.16% [2]. Industry News - China has suspended the import of all syrups and premixes from October 27 due to syrup quality issues announced by the Thai Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives [2]. - ICE raw sugar futures hit a near - five - year low on Monday, with the most actively traded March contract down 0.51 cents or 3.40% to 14.46 cents per pound [2]. Other Information - In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, 26 sugar mills in Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production, with an expected total output of about 1.4 million tons [2]. - In September 2025, China's sugar import volume was 550,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 280,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%; from January to September 2025, the cumulative sugar import volume was 3.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 270,000 tons or 9.4% [2]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicts that China's total sugar import volume this year will exceed 5 million tons, and the pressure of later import volume is still significant [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The international raw sugar price has fallen below 16 cents again, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar futures have been oscillating downward, hitting a two - year low. With the approaching end of the domestic consumption peak season and a significant increase in sugar imports, the main contract 01 of Zhengzhou sugar futures is generally in a weak oscillating trend [6][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review The document does not contain content related to the previous day's review. 3.2 Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: The ISO predicts a global sugar supply gap of 231,000 tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. Conab estimates Brazil's central - southern sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 40.6 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons; in July, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,940 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 479 yuan, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [7]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectations**: The international raw sugar price has fallen below 16 cents again, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar futures have been oscillating downward, hitting a two - year low. With the approaching end of the domestic consumption peak season and a significant increase in sugar imports, the main contract 01 of Zhengzhou sugar futures is generally in a weak oscillating trend [6][10]. 3.3 Today's Focus The document does not contain content related to today's focus. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Balance**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. The ISO predicts a supply gap of 231,000 tons; Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 4.7 million tons; StoneX predicts a surplus of 1.21 million tons; Green Pool predicts a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 million tons; USDA predicts a 4.7% year - on - year increase in global sugar production and a 1.4% increase in consumption in the 25/26 season, with a surplus of 11.397 million tons [5][10][36]. - **Domestic Data**: China's sugar production, sales, import, and consumption data are as follows: in the 24/25 season, cumulative sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons. The domestic sugar consumption is expected to be 15.9 million tons in the 25/26 season [5][37]. - **Price**: The international raw sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound in the 25/26 season, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [37]. 3.5 Position Data The main position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton global sugar supply gap in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. Conab estimates Brazil's central - southern 25/26 sugar production at 40.6 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous estimate. As of July 2025, China's 24/25 sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, sales were 9.5498 million tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons, and 159,800 tons of syrup and premixes, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons, with a neutral overall situation [5]. - The basis of Liuzhou spot sugar is 435 (01 contract), showing a premium over the futures, which is bullish [5]. - As of the end of July in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.61 million tons, which is bullish [7]. - The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below it, which is bearish. The main position is bearish, with a reduction in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear, also bearish [7]. - The international raw sugar re - reached 16 cents in the night session. The domestic futures main contract 01 has support near the 5500 mark, and there may be a technical rebound after consecutive declines [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided in the content. 2. Daily Hints - Fundamental factors: The global sugar supply and demand situation is complex. Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season, with some predicting a supply surplus and others a small gap. China's domestic sugar consumption is good, and the inventory has decreased. The tariff on imported syrup has increased since January 2025 [5][8][10]. - Market indicators: The basis shows a premium, the inventory situation is favorable, but the technical indicators and main positions are bearish. The international raw sugar price has rebounded, and the domestic futures may have a technical rebound [5][6][7]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the content. 4. Fundamental Data - Global supply and demand: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton gap, while Czarnikow predicts a 470,000 - ton surplus, StoneX predicts a 121,000 - ton surplus, etc. [5][10][36]. - China's supply and demand: In 2025, China's sugar production, sales, imports, and consumption data are as follows: As of July, the 24/25 season's cumulative sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 9.5498 million tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In July, 740,000 tons of sugar were imported, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons, and 159,800 tons of syrup and premixes were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons. The 25/26 China's sugar supply and demand balance table shows that production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption is 15.9 million tons, and imports are 5 million tons [5][10][38]. 5. Position Data - The main position is bearish, with a reduction in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear [7].