业绩预告简述：公司预计2025 年归母净利润为10.6-12.3 亿元，同比增长47.43%到71.07%。预计2025 年 扣非归母净利润为9.5-11.2亿元，同比增长39.16%到64.03%。其中：预计2025Q4 归母净利润4.13-5.83 亿元，同比增长150%到253%；预计2025Q4 扣非归母净利润3.66-5.36 亿元，同比增长130%到237%。 本报告导读： 金价上涨投资金高增，公司投资金业务持续受益黄金税收新政。 投资要点： 投资建议：维持增持评级。金价上涨投资金高增，预测2025-2027年EPS 分别为1.55、1.96、2.17 元，同 比+67.5%/+26.5%/+10.8%，参考可比公司估值，给予2026 年15xPE，给予目标价29.4 元，维持增持评 级。 金价上行，投资金需求强劲，菜百全直营模式受益。金价上行，黄金投资需求表现强劲。根据世界黄金 协会，2025 年四季度，中国市场黄金投资与消费需求（含金饰、金条、金币、黄金 ETF 及工业用金） 总量达274 吨，年同比增长18%，较三季度大幅攀升60%。其中金条金币需求量环比激增61%，同比增 长42%，达11 ...

风险提示：金价持续下行，门店扩张不及预期，行业竞争加剧。 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 16,552 | 20,233 | 29,573 | 38,012 | 41,778 | | (+/-)% | 50.6% | 22.2% | 46.2% | 28.5% | 9.9% | | 净利润(归母) | 707 | 719 | 1,204 | 1,524 | 1,689 | | (+/-)% | 53.6% | 1.7% | 67.5% | 26.5% | 10.8% | | 每股净收益(元) | 0.91 | 0.92 | 1.55 | 1.96 | 2.17 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 18.7% | 18.1% | 25.1% | 26.2% | 24.0% | | 市盈率(现价&最新股本摊薄) | 23.19 | 22.79 | 13.61 | 10.75 | 9.70 | 股票研究 /[Table ...

公 司 研 金价上行投资金高增，持续受益黄金税收新政 菜百股份(605599) 菜百股份 2025 年业绩预告点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 宋小寒(分析师) | 010-83939087 | songxiaohan@gtht.com | S0880524080011 | 本报告导读： 投资要点： 风险提示：金价持续下行，门店扩张不及预期，行业竞争加剧。 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 16,552 | 20,233 | 29,573 | 38,012 | 41,778 | | (+/-)% | 50.6% | 22.2% | 46.2% | 28.5% | 9.9% | ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold has reached a historical high, leading to the discreet removal of "investment gold" from the Shenzhen Shui Bei market, the largest gold and jewelry wholesale market in China [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Changes - Since the announcement of the new gold tax policy in November, the pricing display in the Shui Bei market has undergone multiple adjustments, initially showing separate prices for "investment gold" and "jewelry gold" [1] - Recently, the market no longer distinguishes between "investment gold" and "jewelry gold," and the "investment gold" option has been removed from the pricing screens operated by the Shui Bei Association's app [1] Industry Response - Some merchants in the Shui Bei market have indicated on social media that "there is no longer investment gold in the Shui Bei market" [1] - The new tax policy categorizes gold into investment and non-investment types and encourages investment gold to enter centralized trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange [1]

海南风光 拍摄：鹿宇宸 11月1日，黄金税收新政实施 12月18日，海南自贸港全岛封关运作 "规范""转型""海南机遇" 成为高频词 勾勒出黄金珠宝产业 在变革中 寻找新动能、拥抱新市场的清晰路径 税收新政 推动行业规范发展新格局 "2025年11月1日发布的黄金税收新政，是中国黄金行业自2002年以来最重大的税制变革。"中国黄金集团黄金珠宝股份有限公司总会计师吴义东指出："财 政部、国家税务总局近期发布的一系列黄金税收新政，其核心为'通过税收杠杆，明确区分黄金的投资属性与非投资属性'。这宣布了黄金行业增值税模糊 时代的终结，同时开启了双轨制的监管新局面。" 中国黄金产品 吴义东举例分析了新政对企业的影响："会员单位通过交易所购入了标准黄金，开展销售金条等投资性业务，可以按照13%抵扣进项税，但是非会员单位 只能按照6%扣除率抵扣进项税，税负相差7%。"他认为，这使得交易所的会员单位更具税收优势，同时，"购买方只能取得普通销售发票，因为抵扣链断 裂了，会影响后续的投资性产品的流通，从而能够有效压缩利用票面虚开骗税和套利的灰色空间"。对于终端消费者感受明显的金价变化，他分析指出， 对非投资性用途的黄金，新政策下 ...

2025.12.19 本文字数：2187，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 宋婕 税改新政执行后，多家头部金饰品牌店员曾表示，涨价只是早晚的问题。 "有预感金价会在调税之后再涨一波，但没想到涨这么多。而且这次金价要涨，是大家一起涨。"近日， 有消费者向第一财经记者表示，早在黄金税率调整后，他就有预感金饰价格要再涨一波，如今靴子终于 落地。 水贝和周大福先后调价，涨10%以上 近日，周大福天猫官方旗舰店发布提示称，受市场因素影响，部分商品即将提价。有周大福门店店员告 诉第一财经记者，他们较早收到通知，几乎所有定价款式（即消费者口中的"一口价金饰"）都要涨价， 涨幅15%左右。早在前几天，他们就有告知部分在近期有购金计划的客户这一信息，当时预计的涨价时 间节点，就是在12月19日。 老铺黄金店员曾向第一财经记者表示，老铺黄金的产品"不跟大盘金价走但也只会涨价""持有是不会亏 的"。11月时，周大福店员也向第一财经记者表示过，税改政策之后周大福一口价一直没涨，"涨价只是 早晚的问题。" 事实上，头部金饰品牌在有意强化高端品牌形象。周大福等头部品牌的此次涨价，是成本压力与主动品 牌战略共同作用的结果，其深层逻辑远 ...

"有预感金价会在调税之后再涨一波，但没想到涨这么多。而且这次金价要涨，是大家一起涨。"近日，有消费者向第一财经记者表示，早在黄金税率调整 后，他就有预感金饰价格要再涨一波，如今靴子终于落地。 水贝和周大福先后调价，涨10%以上 前者传导合规成本给消费者，后者强化金饰保值增值心智。 税改新政执行后，多家头部金饰品牌店员曾表示，涨价只是早晚的问题。 近日，周大福天猫官方旗舰店发布提示称，受市场因素影响，部分商品即将提价。有周大福门店店员告诉第一财经记者，他们较早收到通知，几乎所有定价 款式（即消费者口中的"一口价金饰"）都要涨价，涨幅15%左右。早在前几天，他们就有告知部分在近期有购金计划的客户这一信息，当时预计的涨价时间 节点，就是在12月19日。 12月18日，以性价比取胜的水贝，悄然隐去了"投资金价"的显示。无论是线下市场大屏，还是线上小程序，都不再区分"投资金"和"首饰金"，黄金价格显示 为"首饰金"价格，即商户口中的"含税价"。所谓"含税金价"与近期的"投资金价"相比，价差百余元，涨幅约在11%至13%。在水贝从只显示金价，到区分显 示"投资金"与"首饰金"，再到隐去"投资金"只显示单一金价，也就一个多 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent adjustments in the banking precious metals business indicate a shift towards enhanced risk control and cost management, with banks focusing on cleaning up inactive accounts and promoting standardized products [1][2][4]. Group 1: Adjustments in Banking Precious Metals Business - Several banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and China Construction Bank, have announced the cleaning of long-term inactive accounts in personal precious metals business at the Shanghai Gold Exchange [1][3]. - ICBC will transfer the balances of inactive margin accounts to settlement accounts and close related business functions starting December 19, 2025 [2]. - Other banks, such as China CITIC Bank and Industrial Bank, have also announced similar measures to clean up inactive accounts or halt their personal precious metals business [3]. Group 2: Risk Control and Cost Management - Banks are enhancing risk control and liquidity management by clearing high-risk, long-idle deferred delivery accounts and promoting low-risk standardized products like accumulated gold [4]. - Experts predict that more small and medium-sized banks will follow suit, gradually reducing their proprietary gold business and shifting towards agency sales and standardized products [4]. Group 3: Marketing of Standardized Products - As the 2026 Spring Festival approaches, banks are ramping up marketing efforts for gold products, offering promotional activities for physical gold and accumulated gold [5][6]. - ICBC has launched a promotional campaign reducing the handling fee for accumulated gold from 0.5% to 0.2% [5]. - Other banks, such as China Merchants Bank, are also promoting gold products with significant returns, while advising investors to be cautious of market volatility [6].

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) to close "three-no" customer gold trading functions reflects a tightening trend in the gold trading business among major banks due to market risk volatility, tax compliance pressures, and changes in investor demand structure [1][2]. Group 1: ICBC's Adjustments - ICBC announced the closure of gold trading functions for customers with no positions, no inventory, and no debts but still holding funds in their accounts, effective December 19 [1]. - Customers are required to withdraw their funds, and the bank will terminate related business agreements, while existing positions will not be affected [1]. - This move aims to enhance account management efficiency and reduce the risk of idle customer funds, aligning with regulatory requirements for fund safety and transparency [2]. Group 2: Industry-Wide Trends - Other banks, including Everbright Bank, China Construction Bank, and Postal Savings Bank, have also taken similar actions to tighten personal gold trading services [2]. - Postal Savings Bank announced the cessation of related services, requiring customers to close positions by October 31, while Citic Bank and Ningbo Bank have also initiated account clean-ups for inactive customers [2]. - The tightening of these services is attributed to the high risk and volatility in the gold market, as well as the low entry barriers for leveraged products, making it difficult for banks to verify customer investment capabilities [2]. Group 3: Brand Gold Sales Exit - Following the implementation of new gold tax regulations, Hengfeng Bank announced it will cease brand gold sales starting December 22, marking the first bank to exit this business since the new policy [3]. - The new tax regulations have increased operational complexity and risk for banks, prompting some to withdraw from brand gold sales due to compliance pressures [3]. - Despite significant price increases in precious metals this year, the volatility has led to a decline in brand gold sales, with expectations that more banks may follow suit in exiting this market segment [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments by major banks in China regarding personal precious metals trading reflect a cautious approach towards market risks, with several banks tightening their management of such businesses to protect investor interests [1][3][7]. Group 1: Bank Adjustments - On December 15, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) announced enhanced management for personal precious metals trading, urging clients with idle accounts to withdraw funds by December 19 [1][4]. - Other banks, including Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and several regional banks, have also followed suit, indicating a broader trend of reducing personal precious metals business [1][6][7]. - The adjustments are part of a larger industry trend, with banks closing accounts that have had no trading activity for extended periods, reflecting a shift in risk management strategies [7][8]. Group 2: Market Context - The tightening of personal precious metals trading comes in the wake of a new tax policy implemented in October, which distinguishes between investment and non-investment gold, increasing compliance costs for banks [11][12]. - The new tax regulations require banks to track the use of physical gold more stringently, leading to operational challenges, particularly for smaller banks [11][12]. - The demand for gold has shifted towards more liquid financial products like ETFs, which offer lower costs and greater convenience compared to physical gold investments [12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The global gold market has seen significant price increases, with a reported rise of over 60% in 2025, driven by economic expansion and geopolitical uncertainties [12]. - Looking ahead to 2026, the gold market is expected to experience a dynamic balance of various forces, with ongoing structural demand from investors and central banks potentially supporting prices, while economic recovery and interest rate changes may exert downward pressure [12].