2026.02. 05 作者 | 第一财经 蔡真 方圆 一家是深圳水贝的贵金属原料商，一家是甘肃的国资企业，两家现相隔数千公里的公司，却卷入了同一场兑付危机。 作为近几年深圳水贝最具影响力的贵金属商之一，深圳市杰我睿珠宝有限公司（下称"杰我睿"）因大规模兑付困难而引发震动。第一财经调查穿透后发 现，甘肃兰州的一家国资企业，通过合资成立企业的方式，与杰我睿发生联系，并共同从事黄金、白银交易业务。双方的合作，还被杰我睿当作对外宣 传的背书。 杰我睿原为水贝地区黄金原料交易商，从上游供货方采购、回收黄金原料，向下游小商户供货。近年来，杰我睿业务逐步转向贵金属零售，并向散户开 放黄金预定价交易，也因此扩大了风险敞口。 早在国资进入前，杰我睿的风险已经暴露。国资与之合作，到底出于什么考虑？杰我睿及其实控人张志腾，又是如何发家、崛起的？ 公开信息显示，三家平台中，"杰我睿珠宝"侧重于无实物约价回收、贵金属寄存和首饰销售，"龙冶金"专注于全款及低预定价的贵金属购买，其注册主 体为深圳市龙冶金业有限公司，"金城金世界"则以黄金首饰与金条销售为主。 根据用户提供的操作录屏，上述三个平台的账户余额与贵金属存货（即"料"）可实现内 ...

专题：水贝金店杰我睿爆雷：涉案金额超百亿，申请500元提款需等82年 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 杰我睿的起落故事，夹杂着混乱的关联方和地方国资身影。 一家是深圳水贝的贵金属原料商，一家是甘肃的国资企业，两家现相隔数千公里的公司，却卷入了同一场兑付危机。 作为近几年深圳水贝最具影响力的贵金属商之一，深圳市杰我睿珠宝有限公司（下称"杰我睿"）因大规模兑付困难而引发震动。第一财经调查穿透后发现， 甘肃兰州的一家国资企业，通过合资成立企业的方式，与杰我睿发生联系，并共同从事黄金、白银交易业务。双方的合作，还被杰我睿当作对外宣传的背 书。 杰我睿原为水贝地区黄金原料交易商，从上游供货方采购、回收黄金原料，向下游小商户供货。近年来，杰我睿业务逐步转向贵金属零售，并向散户开放黄 金预定价交易，也因此扩大了风险敞口。 早在国资进入前，杰我睿的风险已经暴露。国资与之合作，到底出于什么考虑？杰我睿及其实控人张志腾，又是如何发家、崛起的？ 国资现身 第一财经了解到，杰我睿主要有三家核心运营平台。多位用户反映，他们主要通过"杰我睿珠宝"及其关联线上平台"龙冶金"和"金城金世界"进行黄金交易。 ...

杰我睿原为水贝地区黄金原料交易商，从上游供货方采购、回收黄金原料，向下游小商户供货。近年来，杰我睿业务逐步转向贵金属零售，并向散户开放黄 金预定价交易，也因此扩大了风险敞口。 早在国资进入前，杰我睿的风险已经暴露。国资与之合作，到底出于什么考虑？杰我睿及其实控人张志腾，又是如何发家、崛起的？ 国资现身 一家是深圳水贝的贵金属原料商，一家是甘肃的国资企业，两家现相隔数千公里的公司，却卷入了同一场兑付危机。 作为近几年深圳水贝最具影响力的贵金属商之一，深圳市杰我睿珠宝有限公司（下称"杰我睿"）因大规模兑付困难而引发震动。第一财经调查穿透后发现， 甘肃兰州的一家国资企业，通过合资成立企业的方式，与杰我睿发生联系，并共同从事黄金、白银交易业务。双方的合作，还被杰我睿当作对外宣传的背 书。 第一财经了解到，杰我睿主要有三家核心运营平台。多位用户反映，他们主要通过"杰我睿珠宝"及其关联线上平台"龙冶金"和"金城金世界"进行黄金交易。 公开信息显示，三家平台中，"杰我睿珠宝"侧重于无实物约价回收、贵金属寄存和首饰销售，"龙冶金"专注于全款及低预定价的贵金属购买，其注册主体为 深圳市龙冶金业有限公司，"金城金世界"则以黄金首 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that the increase in gold prices is driving a surge in investment gold, benefiting the company's investment gold business due to new gold tax policies [1][3] Group 2 - The company maintains a buy rating, forecasting EPS for 2025-2027 to be 1.55, 1.96, and 2.17 yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 67.5%, 26.5%, and 10.8% respectively. A target price of 29.4 yuan is set based on a 15x PE for 2026 [2] - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 to be between 1.06 billion and 1.23 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47.43% to 71.07%. The non-recurring net profit is projected to be between 950 million and 1.12 billion yuan, with a growth of 39.16% to 64.03% [2] - For Q4 2025, the company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 413 million to 583 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 150% to 253%. The non-recurring net profit for the same quarter is expected to be between 366 million and 536 million yuan, with a growth of 130% to 237% [2] Group 3 - The demand for investment gold is strong due to rising gold prices, with the World Gold Council predicting that China's total gold investment and consumption demand will reach 274 tons in Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18% and a significant quarter-on-quarter rise of 60% [3] - The demand for gold bars and coins surged, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 61% and a year-on-year growth of 42%, reaching 119 tons. For the entire year of 2025, Chinese investors are expected to purchase a total of 432 tons of gold bars and coins, marking a 28% increase from 2024 and setting a new annual record [3] - The company benefits from a direct sales model, which allows it to maintain price advantages under the new gold tax policy, potentially capturing investment gold demand from other brands [3]

风险提示：金价持续下行，门店扩张不及预期，行业竞争加剧。 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 16,552 | 20,233 | 29,573 | 38,012 | 41,778 | | (+/-)% | 50.6% | 22.2% | 46.2% | 28.5% | 9.9% | | 净利润(归母) | 707 | 719 | 1,204 | 1,524 | 1,689 | | (+/-)% | 53.6% | 1.7% | 67.5% | 26.5% | 10.8% | | 每股净收益(元) | 0.91 | 0.92 | 1.55 | 1.96 | 2.17 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 18.7% | 18.1% | 25.1% | 26.2% | 24.0% | | 市盈率(现价&最新股本摊薄) | 23.19 | 22.79 | 13.61 | 10.75 | 9.70 | 股票研究 /[Table ...

公 司 研 金价上行投资金高增，持续受益黄金税收新政 菜百股份(605599) 菜百股份 2025 年业绩预告点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 宋小寒(分析师) | 010-83939087 | songxiaohan@gtht.com | S0880524080011 | 本报告导读： 投资要点： 风险提示：金价持续下行，门店扩张不及预期，行业竞争加剧。 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 16,552 | 20,233 | 29,573 | 38,012 | 41,778 | | (+/-)% | 50.6% | 22.2% | 46.2% | 28.5% | 9.9% | ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold has reached a historical high, leading to the discreet removal of "investment gold" from the Shenzhen Shui Bei market, the largest gold and jewelry wholesale market in China [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Changes - Since the announcement of the new gold tax policy in November, the pricing display in the Shui Bei market has undergone multiple adjustments, initially showing separate prices for "investment gold" and "jewelry gold" [1] - Recently, the market no longer distinguishes between "investment gold" and "jewelry gold," and the "investment gold" option has been removed from the pricing screens operated by the Shui Bei Association's app [1] Industry Response - Some merchants in the Shui Bei market have indicated on social media that "there is no longer investment gold in the Shui Bei market" [1] - The new tax policy categorizes gold into investment and non-investment types and encourages investment gold to enter centralized trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new gold tax policy, effective from November 1, 2025, marks the most significant tax reform in China's gold industry since 2002, aiming to clarify the investment and non-investment attributes of gold through tax leverage, thus ending the ambiguous era of value-added tax in the industry [3][5]. Tax Policy Impact - The new tax policy allows member units of exchanges to deduct input tax at a rate of 13% for investment-related gold purchases, while non-member units can only deduct at 6%, creating a 7% tax burden difference [5]. - The overall tax burden for non-investment gold has increased, leading to higher retail prices for consumers, which explains the perception of increased gold prices among the public [5]. Industry Transformation - Leading companies view the new tax policy as an opportunity for high-quality development, with a focus on regulatory compliance and transparency in the market [7]. - The policy is expected to drive the gold retail market from a rough development model to a more regulated and high-quality operational model [7]. Globalization Opportunities - The upcoming implementation of the Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18 is seen as a significant opportunity for the gold and jewelry industry to break through development bottlenecks and expand globally [8]. - The proportion of duty-free goods entering Hainan is expected to increase from over 20% to more than 70%, providing substantial cost savings for consumers purchasing gold in duty-free shops [8]. Strategic Initiatives - Companies like China Gold Group are implementing strategies to leverage the advantages of both Hainan and Hong Kong, establishing international headquarters and managing global supply chains [8]. - Chow Tai Fook is also utilizing Hainan as a strategic point for cross-border trade and industry aggregation, with strong sales performance in its duty-free stores [9]. Financial Support and Infrastructure - Financial institutions are adapting to support the gold industry, with banks like ICBC and CCB developing specialized financial services to meet diverse enterprise needs [10]. - The Hainan Free Trade Port is positioned as a testing ground for innovative financial services, presenting both opportunities and challenges for financial institutions [10]. Competitive Landscape Changes - The competition logic in the gold and jewelry industry is shifting from reliance on raw material prices to focusing on consumer experience, product innovation, craftsmanship, and cultural significance [12]. - Companies are increasingly integrating technology to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience, with Chow Tai Fook developing AI tools to improve decision-making and streamline operations [12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent tax reform has led to significant price increases in gold jewelry, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Shui Bei adjusting their prices by over 10% due to market factors and increased procurement costs [3][6][7]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Chow Tai Fook announced a price increase of approximately 15% on its fixed-price gold jewelry, with expectations of further increases following the tax reform [3]. - Shui Bei has stopped displaying "investment gold prices," opting instead to show a single "inclusive tax price," resulting in a price difference of over 100 yuan, with increases of about 11% to 13% [5]. - Some popular products have seen price increases exceeding 30%, indicating a strategic shift towards higher-margin products [6]. Group 2: Strategic Shifts - Major brands are focusing on enhancing their high-end image and profitability by shifting their product offerings towards high-margin fixed-price items, which integrate craftsmanship, design, and brand premium [6][7]. - The tax reform has increased procurement costs, necessitating price adjustments to maintain and expand profit margins in a volatile market [7]. - The transition in Shui Bei's market reflects a move away from a low-price model towards a value-based competition, emphasizing product design and innovation [10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The new tax policy has significantly impacted Shui Bei, as merchants can no longer sell gold jewelry based on market gold prices, leading to a mandatory increase in prices by about 7% for non-investment gold [9]. - There are reports of merchants facing severe penalties for non-compliance with invoicing regulations, indicating a tightening of market management [9]. - Shui Bei's transformation is characterized by a focus on value competition, innovation in business models, and diversification into non-gold categories to mitigate risks and meet consumer demands [10].

Core Insights - The recent tax reform has led to an anticipated increase in gold jewelry prices, with consumers expecting a price hike following the adjustment in tax rates [1][2] - Major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Shui Bei have announced price increases of over 10%, with Chow Tai Fook's price hike expected to be around 15% [2][6] - The shift in pricing strategy reflects a broader trend among leading jewelry brands to enhance their high-end image and profitability through strategic adjustments in product pricing [6][7] Pricing Strategy Adjustments - Chow Tai Fook and Shui Bei have both raised prices significantly, with Chow Tai Fook's price increase being a proactive strategic adjustment aimed at optimizing product structure and ensuring profit margins in a volatile market [6][7] - The price of "one-price" jewelry, which is more profitable for brands, has seen increases that exceed the rise in gold prices, indicating a deliberate strategy to leverage pricing power for higher margins [6][7] Market Dynamics and Compliance - The new tax policy has imposed a 7% tax increase on non-investment gold products, significantly impacting the pricing strategies of retailers like Shui Bei, which can no longer sell gold jewelry at market prices [10] - The compliance requirements have led to a reduction in the previously common practice of selling gold at lower investment prices, pushing the market towards a more regulated pricing structure [10][11] Transformation and Innovation - Shui Bei is undergoing a transformation from a low-price model to a value-driven approach, focusing on product design and craftsmanship to counteract cost pressures [11] - The introduction of services like "old-for-new" exchanges and the diversification into non-gold products such as silver and gemstones are emerging as new growth areas for retailers [11]