行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 汽车板块依然受零售较弱、材料涨价影响。我们预计 3 月零售将逐步回暖：影响 1-2 月 零售核心因素 3 个，1）去年递延到今年的消费者有价格观望，2）3 月新车上市带来的 观望，3）补贴程序开启节奏，我们预计 3 月随存量消费者减少、新车上市、补贴通道打 开都将逐步改善。材料涨价方面，我们测算 PHEV 碳酸锂成本同比涨约 1-2k，BEV 2- 4k，经济型存储成本同比涨几百元、高端型 1-3k。市场对材料涨价影响的评估相对线性、 担忧较多，但车企往往会通过一些方式去缓解，此外也要注意到不同类别的车影响不同， 如油车、经济型影响相对偏小：1）供应链降本/分摊、内部降本；2）减配；3）涨价：这 个在今年相对重要，因为续驶里程普遍需要提升，所以 3 月的新车、年改款如何重新定 价（涵盖材料涨价、用量提升），能否让消费者接受合理的价格上涨，会比较关键；4） 低中高配销售结构引导调整。此外，近期 AIDC 和缺电带动潍柴等柴发链大幅上行，成 为汽车板块的新增亮点，我们预计趋势还将持续。 投资建议： 一、数据跟踪 2 月上旬行业折扣率环比下降（油车为主）：折扣率 9.3%，同比+0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market remains cautious, observing the recovery of terminal demand and the impact of policies and costs on profitability, with increased volatility in the non-ferrous sector affecting short-term pricing in the upstream and midstream segments [1] Investment Recommendations - **Complete Vehicles**: Recommended stocks include Geely Automobile, JAC Motors, and BYD. Geely is favored due to its low valuation of over 6 times, with expectations of better-than-expected domestic profitability. JAC's S800 model shows stable order performance, and the company plans to launch 2-3 new models this year [2] - **Auto Parts**: - Robotics sector continues to be a catalyst, with recommendations for Foresight Technology, Minth Group, Top Group, Yinlun Machinery, Haoneng Co., Shuanghuan Transmission, and New Spring Co., with a suggestion to pay attention to Joyson Electronics - AI/Smart Driving is a key area with potential supply order catalysts from policy support and Nvidia's involvement, recommending Horizon Robotics and Hesai Technology, while suggesting to monitor SOTERIA, Black Sesame Technologies, and Pony.ai - Liquid cooling orders are clear, with continued recommendations for Minth Group, Yinlun Machinery, and Lingyun Industrial, and a suggestion to watch Feilong Co. [2] - **Heavy Trucks**: Weichai Power has shown strong performance, reflecting market recognition of its position in AIDC diesel engines and natural gas generators, with continued recommendations. Concerns over short-term shareholder reductions in China National Heavy Duty Truck have dissipated, suggesting a focus on fundamentals [2] Data Tracking - In late January, industry discounts decreased month-on-month, with a discount rate of 9.5%, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year and down 0.1 percentage points month-on-month. The discount amount was 21,541 yuan, up 1,294 yuan year-on-year and down 718 yuan month-on-month [3] - December wholesale and retail sales of passenger vehicles declined year-on-year, with wholesale sales at 2.85 million units, down 8.7% year-on-year and 6.3% month-on-month. Retail sales of domestic passenger vehicles were 2.28 million units, down 16.8% year-on-year but up 13.7% month-on-month [3] Market Performance - The automotive sector saw a decline of 5.12% this week, ranking 28th out of 29 sectors. The overall index performance included a decrease of 0.44% for the Shanghai Composite Index, an increase of 0.08% for the CSI 300, and a decrease of 0.09% for the ChiNext Index. The automotive index's performance included a drop of 5.12% for the automotive sector, 6.70% for parts, 3.64% for passenger vehicles, 1.10% for commercial vehicles, and 3.42% for circulation services [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive sector, indicating a potential rebound in vehicle sales in the first quarter driven by retail and export growth [3][4]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to see a rebound in vehicle sales, particularly in the first quarter, with catalysts from retail and export activities. The focus for auto parts remains on new industries such as intelligent driving, robotics, and liquid cooling technologies [3][4]. - Traditional automotive stocks have shown relative stability in prices, while the robotics sector is expanding into second-tier markets [3]. - The report highlights significant growth in new energy vehicle deliveries, with companies like NIO and Li Auto showing notable month-on-month increases [6][7]. Data Tracking - In early January, the discount rate for traditional vehicles remained stable at 9.6%, with an average discount amount of 22,259 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2,192 yuan [5]. - December saw a decline in wholesale and retail sales of passenger vehicles, with wholesale sales down 8.7% year-on-year and retail sales down 16.8% [5][6]. - New energy vehicle deliveries in December showed a mixed performance, with BYD delivering 420,398 units (down 18.3% year-on-year) while NIO and Li Auto reported significant increases in deliveries [6][7]. Industry News - The report notes that the German government announced subsidies of up to 6,000 euros for families purchasing new electric vehicles to boost the domestic electric vehicle industry [10]. - The report also mentions that the Chinese government is implementing policies to promote the replacement of old vehicles and appliances, which is expected to enhance the automotive market [10][30]. - Geely's new MPV model, the Galaxy V900, was launched with a price range of 269,800 to 329,800 yuan, featuring advanced AI capabilities [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive sector, suggesting that the sector is expected to bottom out and presents a good opportunity for early investment in the upcoming year [3]. Core Insights - Traditional vehicle stocks continue to show weak performance, which is anticipated as the market awaits clarity on 1Q policies and retail trends. The report suggests that the current moment is a favorable time for positioning [3]. - The report highlights significant interest in the intelligent driving sector, particularly with L3 level autonomous driving vehicles, which are expected to gain traction in 2026 due to potential policy and standard implementations [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the automotive sector's recovery, particularly focusing on companies like Geely and JAC, which are expected to benefit from high-end product strategies and international expansion [5]. Data Tracking - In early December, the discount rate for vehicles decreased slightly, with an average discount amount of 22,156 yuan, down 1,238 yuan from the previous month. The discount rate was reported at 9.7%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points month-on-month [5]. - In October, wholesale vehicle sales reached 2.96 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.5% and a month-on-month increase of 3.6%. However, retail sales fell to 2.09 million units, down 9.2% year-on-year and 6.4% month-on-month [5]. - In November, BYD's delivery volume was 480,186 units, showing a significant month-on-month increase of 8.7%, while traditional automaker Geely's sales reached 310,000 units, up 24.0% year-on-year [6][26]. Industry News - On December 15, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology approved two L3 level autonomous driving vehicle models from Changan Automobile and BAIC Blue Valley [9][32]. - The report notes that the automotive sector's performance index increased by 0.09% this week, ranking 9th out of 29 sectors [10]. - The report mentions that the retail market for narrow passenger vehicles is expected to reach approximately 2.3 million units in December, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 3.4% but a year-on-year decline of 12.7% [34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive industry [2]. Core Insights - Global light vehicle sales in October reached approximately 7.9 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% and a month-on-month increase of 0.5%. However, overseas sales totaled about 4.77 million units, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.4% and a month-on-month decline of 1.5% [2]. - North American sales were 1.56 million units, down 5.0% year-on-year but up 1.1% month-on-month. European sales were approximately 1.48 million units, up 2.9% year-on-year but down 7.5% month-on-month. In contrast, Chinese sales reached 3.13 million units, up 7.6% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month [2]. - The report anticipates that overseas light vehicle sales will reach 55.88 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, and 56.14 million units in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry: Sales, Exchange Rates, Freight - Global light vehicle sales data indicates a mixed performance across regions, with North America and Europe facing declines while China shows growth [2][5]. - The report highlights the impact of exchange rates and freight costs on the automotive industry, noting a downward trend in the CCFI (China Container Freight Index) [24]. 2. Market Competition - The competitive landscape is analyzed, showing the market shares of major automotive groups, including Toyota, Volkswagen, and BYD, with a focus on their performance in the global market [28][29]. - The report also discusses the dynamics of the global new energy vehicle market, emphasizing the growth of companies like BYD and Tesla [33][34]. 3. Export Situation of Automotive and Parts Companies - The report provides insights into the export performance of domestic automotive manufacturers, highlighting the monthly growth rates of narrow passenger vehicle exports [39][40]. - It lists companies with significant overseas revenue, indicating their reliance on international markets [42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the coming quarters [5]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to stabilize in Q4 2025, with potential upward movement in Q1 2026, driven by policy direction, profit expectations, and valuation adjustments [1]. - Recent retail performance has been subdued due to the impact of trade-in incentives, and the Guangzhou Auto Show has had limited effect on new car sales [1]. - The report highlights the rebound of state-owned enterprises in vehicle manufacturing, influenced by catalyst factors [1]. Data Tracking - In late November, the discount rate for vehicles increased slightly to 10.1%, with a month-on-month rise of 0.1 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 1.6 percentage points [3]. - October wholesale vehicle sales reached 2.96 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.5% and a month-on-month increase of 3.6% [3]. - Retail sales in October were 2.09 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9.2% and a month-on-month decline of 6.4% [3]. Market Performance - The automotive sector saw a weekly increase of 3.33%, ranking 11th among sectors [9]. - The overall market indices also showed positive movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.40% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 4.54% [9]. Industry News - As of October 2025, the automotive industry reported a profit of 389.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, with total revenue reaching 8,877.8 billion yuan [29]. - The inventory level for passenger vehicles at the end of October was 3.41 million units, indicating a seasonal increase in stock [29]. - New energy vehicle company Li Auto announced plans to release AI-powered accessories, indicating a trend towards integrating advanced technology in vehicles [29].

Core Viewpoint - In October, the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.93 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 7% and a month-on-month increase of 4%, with retail sales estimated at 2.34 million units, up 3% year-on-year and 6% month-on-month. The effects of trade-in programs remain significant, and exports continue to grow, with October wholesale sales reaching a historical high for the month [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - October wholesale sales of passenger vehicles were 2.93 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 7% and a month-on-month increase of 4%. Retail sales are estimated at 2.34 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 3% and a month-on-month increase of 6% [2]. - The penetration rate of electric vehicles (EVs) reached 55% in October, with wholesale sales of 1.62 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 18% and a month-on-month increase of 8% [2]. - The wholesale sales of domestic car manufacturers reached 2.14 million units in October, with a year-on-year increase of 12% and a month-on-month increase of 8%, accounting for 73.1% of total sales [2]. Group 2: Inventory and Pricing - In October, exports totaled 570,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 23% and a month-on-month increase of 3%, leading to an increase in channel inventory of approximately 30,000 units [3]. - The industry discount rate in late October slightly increased, with an overall discount rate of 9.6%, up 0.1 percentage points month-on-month [2]. Group 3: Yearly Outlook - For Q4, retail sales are expected to reach 7.73 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 6%, while wholesale sales are projected at 8.67 million units, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1%. The total retail sales for the year are expected to be 24.23 million units, up 6.7% year-on-year, and wholesale sales at 29.61 million units, up 8.6% year-on-year [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - As the year ends, various brands are gradually implementing policies to phase out purchase tax incentives, with expectations that Q4 sales will be less impacted than previously anticipated. The sector is expected to see a recovery as the impact of policy changes diminishes [5]. - Recommended stocks for investment include Geely Automobile and BYD, with a focus on Geely's valuation being in single digits for the coming year. Additionally, JAC Motors is highlighted for its strong product cycle and favorable pricing after recent adjustments [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [70]. Core Insights - In October, the wholesale sales of narrow passenger vehicles reached 2.93 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7% and a month-on-month increase of 4% [2]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 55%, with wholesale sales of electric vehicles at 1.62 million units, marking an 18% year-on-year increase [8]. - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in companies such as Geely Automobile and BYD, with a focus on Geely's low valuation for the upcoming year [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In October, the production of narrow passenger vehicles was 2.95 million units, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase and a 4% month-on-month increase [2]. - The report estimates that retail sales for October were approximately 2.34 million units, showing a 3% year-on-year increase [8]. Sales Performance - The wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in October were 1.62 million units, with a penetration rate of 55%, which is a 5 percentage point increase year-on-year [8]. - The report indicates that the wholesale sales of domestic car manufacturers reached 2.14 million units in October, a 12% year-on-year increase [8]. Pricing and Inventory - The industry discount rate slightly increased in late October, with an average discount rate of 9.6%, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point increase month-on-month [8]. - The total inventory is estimated to be around 3.1 million units, with fuel vehicle inventory at approximately 850,000 units, indicating a higher overall inventory compared to the same period last year [8]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the fourth quarter will see a seasonal inventory reduction, with retail sales expected to reach 7.73 million units, a 6% year-on-year increase, while wholesale sales are projected to be 8.67 million units, a 1% year-on-year decrease [8]. - Potential catalysts for recovery in the automotive sector include better-than-expected retail sales post-Spring Festival and improved export performance [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment recommendation for the automotive sector, anticipating a recovery in 2025 [1][2]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced moderate growth in Q3, with weak performance from car manufacturers and overall mild growth in automotive parts. The report highlights potential catalysts for recovery in 2025, including better-than-expected retail sales post-Spring Festival, improved export performance, and favorable policies [1][5]. Data Tracking - In late October, the discount rate for vehicles increased by 9.6%, with a slight month-on-month rise of 0.1 percentage points. The average discount amount was 21,782 yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 398 yuan [3][4]. - The report tracks various automotive raw material prices, noting significant changes in lithium carbonate, aluminum, copper, palladium, and rhodium prices [6][28]. Market Performance - The automotive sector saw a weekly increase of 0.69%, ranking 15th out of 29 sectors. The report details the performance of various indices, with the automotive parts sector rising by 1.13% and commercial vehicles by 4.41% [8][31]. Industry News - Key developments include the call for a phased exit of vehicle purchase tax reductions, the cessation of vehicle replacement subsidies in Shenzhen, and the launch of new models by various manufacturers [29][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [72][74]. Core Insights - In September, the wholesale volume of narrow passenger cars reached 2.84 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17% and a month-on-month increase of 16%. The wholesale volume was 2.8 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 12% and a month-on-month increase of 13% [2][8]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached a record high of 54% in September, with wholesale sales of 1.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 22% and a month-on-month increase of 17% [8][10]. - The report anticipates that the automotive market will continue to experience strong sales in the fourth quarter, driven by the early continuation of the vehicle trade-in policy and the expected seasonal inventory reduction [8][10]. Summary by Sections Sales - The report indicates that the wholesale sales of passenger cars in September were 2.8 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12% and a month-on-month increase of 13%. The retail sales for the same month are estimated at approximately 2.13 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 1% [8][10]. - The report highlights that the penetration rate of NEVs has surpassed 54%, marking a significant increase in the market share of electric vehicles [8][10]. Inventory - The report notes that the total inventory in the automotive market is currently around 3.1 million units, with fuel vehicle inventory at approximately 900,000 units. This indicates that overall inventory levels are higher than the same period last year, although fuel vehicle inventory is lower [8][10]. Pricing - The report mentions that the discount rate in the automotive industry has increased to 10.1% in late September, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points [8][10]. - The average discount rate has been gradually relaxing, indicating a trend towards more competitive pricing in the market [8][10]. Market Competition - The report identifies key players in the automotive sector, recommending companies such as Jianghuai Automobile, Geely Automobile, and BYD, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming quarters [8][10].