2026年汽车行业景气预测 展望2026年，中性预测下，我们预计批发销量116万辆，同比+1.5%；内销77万辆，同比-5.5%，小幅承 压，其中天然气车/电车/油车分别+25%/+19.3%/-33.4%；出口39-40万辆，同比+18.8%。 乐观预测下，我们预计批发销量125万辆，同比+9.5%；内销83.6万辆，同比+2.7%，小幅增长，其中天 然 气车/电车/油车分别+46.5%/ +29.7%/-32.8%；出口41-42万辆，同比+25%。 2026年重卡出口展望 2026年俄罗斯影响消除，出口加速增长。我们认为，2026年俄罗斯出口有望底部企稳，拖累消除， 非 俄地区中，东南亚/非洲/中东增长主要由当地基建/采矿/资源运输需求驱动，具备持续性，而拉美 市场 中国品牌加大资源投入，预计份额将持续提升。我们保守预计，海关口径下，2026年亚洲/非洲/ 中东出 口同比分别+20%/+30%/+40%，非俄出口合计同比+26%。 价值主线——寻找穿越周期α品种 2026年乘用车总量和新能源销量预期 26年行业受新能源购置税征收5%影响，内需整体预期-3.5% 。 两新政策：截至2025年10月22日商 ...

中国广告协会表示，新修订实施的《中华人民共和国反不正当竞争法》明确规定，经营者不得编造、传 播或者指使他人编造、传播虚假信息或者误导性信息，损害其他经营者的商业信誉、商品声誉。这一规 定为整治涉企网络"黑嘴"提供了新的法律支持，填补了此前相关领域的监管空白。此次"龙哥说电车"案 的判决，厘清了网络言论的边界，让"黑嘴"们明白，网络不是法外之地，任何损害企业合法权益的言论 和行为，都将受到法律的严惩。 中国广告协会认为，整治"黑嘴"需多方协同构建长效机制。网络平台要压实主体责任，完善审核管理、 优化投诉流程，遏制虚假信息；企业要增强维权意识，善用法律武器，同时主动公开信息以打破传言； 网络从业者应摒弃"流量至上"，坚守操守传播真实内容；公众要提升辨别能力，不盲从传播不实信息， 共筑理性网络氛围。 中国广告协会表示，数字经济时代，网络声誉是企业核心竞争力的重要组成。但部分账号为流量私利化 身"黑嘴"，通过编造虚假信息、诋毁产品质量、抹黑企业经营状况等方式恶意攻击企业。此类行为看似 是"言论自由"的宣泄，实则具有极强的破坏性：对企业而言，负面信息会冲击销量、损害信誉甚至引发 经营危机；对市场而言，会扰乱公平竞争、加 ...

jin 2025 年 12 月 19 日 震荡与突围：供给扰动下的再平衡 ---2026 年锡期货行情展望 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 报告导读： 期 货 研 究 所 基本面方面，我们认为 26 上半年处于供需双弱的短缺格局，年中前后随缅甸掸邦第二特区复产面临边际宽松。 供应侧，2026 年总体有可观增量释放，供应面临边际宽松，主要来源于缅甸佤邦复产和印尼增产，同时关注刚果（金） 等非洲产区扰动，上下半年或将面临一定分化，呈现前紧后松的供应格局。缅甸方面，短期内同比减幅或有所收敛， 但上下半年面临分化。刚果（金）方面，冲突预计边际带来 1750 吨左右的减量。印尼锡锭方面，继续维持增长，向全 球市场输送增量。国内锡锭方面，仍需关注缅甸佤邦复产主导的原料供应情况。需求侧，AI 领域增速较快但基数较小， 多数终端需求仍然低迷。 2026 年全球供应为 36.9 万吨，增速为 0.3%，全球总需求为 37.8 万吨，增速为-0.8%。全球供需平衡缺口 0.9 万吨。中国供应约有 18.2 万吨，中国需求约有 18.5 万吨，供需或存在 0.3 万吨的缺口。策略 ...

文 | 顾远山 编辑 | 顾远山 该来的，终究还是来了。 从美国政府释放出对华恶意开始，那个试图讨好美国的欧盟便心甘情愿的当起了美国的对华马前卒。 从2024年以各种上不得台面的借口，对我国电车征收不合道理的临时反补贴税；到2025年中旬又以无耻 的理由限制我国企业参与超500万欧元医疗器械的公共招标；等到了2025年12月更是以所谓的网络攻击 为由，对无辜中企展开制裁…… 一次又一次充满恶意的针对，已然让中欧关系紧张到了一种前所未见的地步。 而在这一次，我方也不会再对欧洲有半点的手软。 本文信源来自权威报道【外交部】【农业部】【央广网】【中国新闻网】【长江云新闻】 【京报网】（详细信源附在文章末尾）。为提升文章可读性，细节可能存在润色，请理智阅 读，仅供参考! 中方对欧加税，绝非表面那么简单 随着欧洲联盟对我国的所作所为愈发的得寸进尺，忍无可忍的我国，也终于开始对整个欧洲重拳出击。 就在12月16日，我国商务部官宣了一则重磅消息，从12月17日开始，我国将合理合法且合情地依照法律 法规，对那些原产于欧洲的进口猪肉和副产品征收4.9%——19.8%范围内的反倾销税，持续时间更是长 达五年。 纵然我国的反倾销税 ...

在拥有诸多车企的德国、法国等的游说下欧盟对于禁售燃油车的目标已有所动摇，毕竟德国、法国是欧 盟的两大支柱，外媒传出的消息指欧盟很可能会修改碳排放目标，将从原来的要求碳排放降低100%改 为降低90%，而有了开始就有可能进一步降低碳排放目标。 导致欧盟改变主意很可能在于欧洲汽车行业已深刻认识到它们恐怕已无法抵御中国电车的进攻，尤其是 在电车的关键部件--电池方面，欧洲屡屡受挫，导致欧洲发展电动汽车可能受制于亚洲企业。 欧洲曾联合发起了一家电池企业Northvolt，但是在诸多欧洲车企的呵护下最终Northvolt倒闭了，原因在 于Northvolt的锂电池技术存在缺陷，更重要的是成本方面竞争不过亚洲厂商，特别是中国的电池企业。 据了解2024年全球前十大动力电池企业之中，有六家都是中国电池企业，另外四家分别是日本的松下、 韩国的SK、LG和三星SDI，而且中国电池企业占据绝对优势，其中前两大动力电池企业都是中国企 业，这两家中国动力电池企业合计就占有全球动力电池市场55%的份额。 在现有的锂电池技术上，欧洲无法立足，连被视为未来的电池技术--固态电池也未必占据优势，如今日 本和中国的电池厂商都是加速固态电池的商 ...

根据《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》及配套指引，本资料仅面向华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿对本资料进行任何形式的转发。若您不 是华创证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿订阅、接收或使用本资料中的信息。 本资料难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。感谢您的理解与配合。 摘 要 受补贴政策退坡预期影响，市场当前对汽车明年周期下行的悲观预期较为充分，我们认为销量表现可能好于市场预期，投资机会围绕预期修复、个股 alpha，以及零部件的智驾/机器人/液冷板块行情来布局。 销量展望： 预计2026年零售+1.0%、批发+4.6%，其中电车批发+8%、油车批发+1%，库存微增20万辆（按年末），出口686万辆/+21%。相较于市场更悲观的销量预 期，我们销量展望更为乐观，来源在于：1）4Q25销量低于预期，部分需求会顺延至明年，降低25年基数、抬高26年尤其26Q1需求；2）对政策托底持积 极预期。 竞争展望： 整车角度，经济型和高端型品牌头部格局已基本成型，二线品牌进一步放量难度加大，价格端主要体现：1）行业进入"被动加库"的价格压力提升；2）反 内卷的政策指引减缓价格压力。零部件角度，则主要考虑电车增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of Kunshan Zero's Jia New Energy Vehicle Sales Service Co., Ltd. indicates a growing trend in the new energy vehicle sector, reflecting increased market activity and investment in electric vehicle sales and related services [1] Company Summary - Kunshan Zero's Jia New Energy Vehicle Sales Service Co., Ltd. has been registered with a capital of 3 million RMB [1] - The company is represented by Chang Qingsong, indicating a local leadership presence [1] Industry Summary - The company’s business scope includes a wide range of activities related to new energy vehicles, such as: - Sales of new energy vehicles and electric vehicles - Retail of automotive parts and accessories - Operation of electric vehicle charging infrastructure and sales of charging stations - Sales of plug-in hybrid engines and second-hand vehicle brokerage [1] - Additional services offered include vehicle assessment, tire sales, towing and rescue services, battery parts sales, and small passenger vehicle rental [1] - The company is positioned to operate in a rapidly evolving market, focusing on sustainable transportation solutions and infrastructure development [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [70]. Core Insights - In October, the wholesale sales of narrow passenger vehicles reached 2.93 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7% and a month-on-month increase of 4% [2]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 55%, with wholesale sales of electric vehicles at 1.62 million units, marking an 18% year-on-year increase [8]. - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in companies such as Geely Automobile and BYD, with a focus on Geely's low valuation for the upcoming year [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In October, the production of narrow passenger vehicles was 2.95 million units, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase and a 4% month-on-month increase [2]. - The report estimates that retail sales for October were approximately 2.34 million units, showing a 3% year-on-year increase [8]. Sales Performance - The wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in October were 1.62 million units, with a penetration rate of 55%, which is a 5 percentage point increase year-on-year [8]. - The report indicates that the wholesale sales of domestic car manufacturers reached 2.14 million units in October, a 12% year-on-year increase [8]. Pricing and Inventory - The industry discount rate slightly increased in late October, with an average discount rate of 9.6%, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point increase month-on-month [8]. - The total inventory is estimated to be around 3.1 million units, with fuel vehicle inventory at approximately 850,000 units, indicating a higher overall inventory compared to the same period last year [8]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the fourth quarter will see a seasonal inventory reduction, with retail sales expected to reach 7.73 million units, a 6% year-on-year increase, while wholesale sales are projected to be 8.67 million units, a 1% year-on-year decrease [8]. - Potential catalysts for recovery in the automotive sector include better-than-expected retail sales post-Spring Festival and improved export performance [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the electric vehicle (EV) market, highlighting that while the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached a record high of 57.8% in September, the growth rate is slowing down, indicating a shift towards a more competitive landscape between electric and gasoline vehicles [5][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In October, the EV retail penetration rate is expected to continue rising, potentially surpassing 60% by year-end [5]. - The article suggests that the EV market is entering a phase of stock competition, where competition among manufacturers is intensifying, making it difficult for all players [7][10]. - The article emphasizes that the EV market is currently constrained by two major factors: entrenched consumer perceptions and deteriorating business models [8][20]. Group 2: Consumer Perception - Consumer skepticism towards EVs remains strong, with many expressing concerns about safety and reliability, which are difficult to change [14][16]. - The article notes that recent accidents involving EVs have further eroded consumer trust, making it challenging for manufacturers to reassure potential buyers [14][16]. - The article highlights that the perception of EVs being heavily reliant on government subsidies is prevalent, with consumers feeling that the market is not yet level between EVs and gasoline vehicles [17][18]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Major players like Tesla and BYD have seen a decline in profitability, with Tesla's net profit dropping by 29% and BYD's by 32.6% in the last quarter, attributed to increased competition and rising operational costs [25][26]. - The article points out that the overall profitability of the automotive industry is declining, with the profit margin dropping from 9.0% in 2014 to 4.3% in 2024, indicating a challenging environment for manufacturers [33]. - Porsche's significant drop in operating profit by 99% in the first nine months of the year is cited as an example of the financial strain faced by companies in the transition to electric vehicles [26][29]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article mentions the upcoming reduction in EV purchase subsidies, which will test the market's ability to sustain itself without government support [18]. - The "Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0" emphasizes a dual approach of promoting both electric and gasoline vehicles, indicating ongoing competition in the market [36]. - The article concludes that for EVs to achieve true success, they must overcome the challenges posed by entrenched perceptions and a deteriorating business model [38].

Core Points - The China International Import Expo (CIIE) has demonstrated a strong "magnetic effect" over the past eight years, attracting more exhibitors and showcasing new products and technologies [1][2] - This year's expo features over 600 new exhibitors, including 290 Fortune Global 500 companies, indicating a growing interest in the Chinese market [1] - The event has introduced 461 new products, technologies, and services, with over 200 expected to be global debuts, highlighting innovation and opportunities for collaboration [1] - Participation from least developed countries has increased by 23.5%, with 163 companies attending, reflecting China's commitment to inclusive growth [1] - The expo serves as a platform for cultural exchange, with 155 countries and regions participating, allowing for a deeper understanding of global markets [2] - A follow-up event, the "Small CIIE," will take place from December 19 to 21, providing an opportunity for consumers to purchase featured products from the expo [2] - The CIIE is positioned as a bridge connecting the Chinese economy with the global economy, with expectations for continued growth and expansion [2]