证券研究报告 基金双周报：ETF市场跟踪报告 证券分析师 | 陈 瑶 | | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120003 | | --- | --- | --- | | 郭子睿 | | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520070003 | | 任书康 | | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060525050001 | | 研究助理 | | | | 高 | 越 | 一般从业资格编号：S1060124070014 | | 胡心怡 | | 一般从业资格编号：S1060124030069 | 2025年11月23日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 报告摘要 2 ETF市场回顾： • 收益表现与资金流向：截至11月21日，近两周ETF产品整体下跌。国内主要宽基ETF中，上证50跌幅最小，行业与主题产品中，消费主题ETF跌幅最小。近两 周，国内主要宽基ETF中，科创50、中证500、创业板指、中证1000ETF资金净流入额居前，11月21日主要宽基与科技主题ETF大幅净流入。2）近两周，周期、 军工、新能源ETF资金由净流出转为净流入，科技、红利、大制造其他ETF资金加速流入，医药、消费、金融地产ETF资金流入速度放缓。债券ETF方 ...

ETF Market Overview - As of November 7, the performance of ETF products varied, with the CSI 2000 showing the highest increase among major broad-based ETFs, while the new energy theme ETF had the largest increase among industry and thematic products [2][9] - In the past two weeks, major broad-based ETFs such as CSI A500, CSI 2000, and Sci-Tech 50 ETF saw net inflows, while the ChiNext ETF experienced the largest net outflow [2][9] - The recent trend indicates a shift from net inflows to net outflows in cyclical and military industry ETFs, while pharmaceutical ETFs saw accelerated inflows [2][16] ETF Fund Flow Analysis - The cumulative fund flow for broad-based ETFs has shown a trend of outflows turning into inflows and then back to outflows since the beginning of 2025, with A-series ETFs consistently experiencing outflows [10] - Recent net outflows for broad-based ETFs have slowed down, with CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 transitioning from net outflows to net inflows [10][16] - As of November 7, the total number of newly established ETFs in the past two weeks was 16, with a total issuance of 6.53 billion units, of which 13 were stock ETFs and 3 were QDII ETFs [24] Thematic ETF Tracking - In the technology theme ETFs, products tracking the Hang Seng Technology index saw the highest net inflows, while those tracking consumer electronics experienced net outflows [30] - For dividend theme ETFs, products tracking the S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend Index had the highest net inflows, while those tracking the dividend index saw net outflows [32] Popular Thematic ETFs - AI-themed ETFs, which have a high proportion of AI stocks, experienced an average return of -2.99% with a net inflow of 1.56 billion [2] - New energy-themed ETFs had an average return of 7.67% but saw a net outflow of 5.72 billion [2] - The total holdings of ETFs by Central Huijin, Guoxin, and Chengtong reached 391.34 billion units, with a net outflow of 2.11 billion in the past two weeks [2]

Core Insights - The domestic ETF market has seen significant growth in 2025, with total assets increasing by nearly 2 trillion yuan, surpassing 5.7 trillion yuan for the first time [1][2] - The market has shifted focus from broad index ETFs in 2024 to industry-themed ETFs in 2025, driven by sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, AI, chips, banking, and non-ferrous metals [1][2] - Hua Bao Fund has experienced rapid growth in its ETF business, with a 60.80% increase in management scale, reaching 131.49 billion yuan in the first ten months of 2025 [1][2] ETF Market Performance - The total scale of stock ETFs in the market grew by 836.80 billion yuan, marking a 28.98% increase [2] - Hua Bao Fund's stock ETFs expanded to 39, with a management scale increase of 49.72 billion yuan, reaching a historical high of 131.49 billion yuan [2] - As of October 31, 2025, Hua Bao Fund's total ETF scale (including money market ETFs) surpassed 200 billion yuan, reaching 204.73 billion yuan, ranking in the top 10 of the public fund industry [2] Key ETFs and Their Performance - The brokerage ETF (512000) has become a market leader, with a net profit of 182.55 billion yuan for 49 listed brokerages, a 61.87% year-on-year increase [3] - Despite a modest year-to-date increase of 6.05% for the brokerage index, significant capital inflows into the brokerage ETF indicate a potential for valuation recovery [3] - Other notable ETFs include the financial technology ETF (159851) with a net inflow of 53.54 billion yuan, and the banking ETF (512800) with 105.95 billion yuan [3] Growth of High-Value ETFs - The number of ETFs with over 10 billion yuan in scale has increased, with three ETFs surpassing the 10 billion yuan mark in 2025 [4] - Hua Bao Fund now has five stock ETFs in the "billion club," with a combined scale of 106.29 billion yuan [4] - The brokerage ETF (512000) is nearing the 40 billion yuan mark, while the medical ETF (512170) leads its category with a scale of 25.64 billion yuan [4] Investment Returns - The growth in ETF scale is supported by substantial returns, with 23 of Hua Bao Fund's ETFs yielding over 20% returns since the beginning of 2025 [5] - Notable performers include the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Pharmaceutical ETF (520880) with an 83.47% increase and the Entrepreneurial Board AI ETF (159363) with an 80.97% increase [5]

Core Insights - The domestic ETF market has seen significant growth in 2025, with total assets increasing by nearly 2 trillion yuan, surpassing 5.7 trillion yuan for the first time [1][2] - The market has shifted focus from broad index ETFs in 2024 to industry-themed ETFs in 2025, driven by sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, AI, chips, banking, and non-ferrous metals [1] - Hua Bao Fund has experienced rapid growth in its ETF business, with a 60.80% increase in management scale, reaching 131.49 billion yuan in the first ten months of 2025 [2][6] ETF Market Performance - The total scale of stock ETFs in the market grew by 836.80 billion yuan, marking a 28.98% increase [2] - Hua Bao Fund's stock ETFs expanded to 39, with a management scale increase of 49.72 billion yuan, reaching a historical high of 131.49 billion yuan [2] - As of October 31, 2025, Hua Bao Fund's total ETF scale (including money market ETFs) surpassed 200 billion yuan, reaching 204.73 billion yuan, ranking in the top 10 of the public fund industry [2] Sector Highlights - The brokerage sector has become a favorite among investors, with the brokerage ETF (512000) reflecting strong performance, as the net profit of 49 listed brokerages reached 182.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.87% [5] - Despite a modest year-to-date increase of 6.05% for the brokerage index, it remains undervalued, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [5] - The financial technology ETF (159851) has also attracted significant inflows, with 5.35 billion yuan in net inflows in 2025 [5][6] Investment Trends - Hua Bao Fund's stock ETFs have seen cumulative net inflows of 33.66 billion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, setting a new record [6] - The top five ETFs, referred to as the "Five Flowers," have become indicators of market sentiment towards related sectors [6] - The number of ETFs with over 10 billion yuan in scale has increased, with the banking ETF (512800), financial technology ETF (159851), and Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) all surpassing this threshold [9] Performance of Underlying Indices - Among the indices tracked by Hua Bao Fund's ETFs, 23 have returned over 20% since the beginning of 2025, with 7 indices exceeding 50% [12] - Notable performers include the Hong Kong Innovative Pharmaceuticals ETF (520880) with an 83.47% increase, and the AI ETF (159363) with an 80.97% increase [12][18]

上证报中国证券网讯（记者 王彭）11月3日，ETF市场涨跌不一。其中，中韩半导体ETF上涨4.62%，光 伏ETF龙头上涨4.55%，影视ETF、光伏ETF指数基金、游戏ETF等多只产品均涨逾3%。科创信息ETF、 黄金股ETF、黄金股票ETF等产品跌逾2%。 华泰柏瑞中证光伏产业ETF基金经理李茜和李沐阳在基金三季报中表示，四季度光伏行业盈利修复有望 加速，政策引导的产能整合与硅料"收储"方案若落地，将强化供需平衡。需求端关注国内集中式项目年 底抢装及海外圣诞采购潮，钙钛矿、BC技术迭代红利向设备环节扩散。 汇添富中证光伏产业ETF基金经理董瑾在基金三季报中表示，光伏装机需求长期仍有望持续增长。当前 板块景气度仍处于筑底阶段，在"反内卷"措施的推动下，随着产能逐步出清、产业链价格企稳，行业景 气度将有望回暖。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 对于黄金未来表现，华安基金发表公开观点表示，黄金近期在短期过热后的调整已逐渐趋于充分，利空 事件也靴子落地，后续建议投资者仍以大类资产配置为出发点，以分散风险、稳健投资理念参与黄金投 资，在低位时可适当布局。展望后市，美联储降息周期有望延续，美债信用下行和去美元化下全球央 ...

Core Insights - The ETF market in China continues to expand, with significant growth potential observed in both Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [2][4] - As of September 2025, the total number of ETFs in the Shanghai market reached 760, with a total market value of 40,003.11 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.65% increase from the previous period [2] - In the Shenzhen market, there are 555 ETFs with a total market value of 16,255.16 billion yuan and a total share of 9,648.33 million [2] ETF Holdings by Brokerage Firms - The leading brokerages in the Shanghai ETF market are China Galaxy Securities and Shenwan Hongyuan, holding 22.75% and 16.74% of the market share respectively, together accounting for 39.49% [4][5] - Other notable brokerages include Guotai Junan Securities (8.04%), CITIC Securities (6.87%), and China Merchants Securities (4.74%) [5][6] ETF Trading Volume Rankings - In September, CITIC Securities topped the Shanghai market with an 11.24% share of ETF trading volume, surpassing Huatai Securities, which held 11.09% [8][9] - Year-to-date, Huatai Securities maintains the highest cumulative trading volume share at 11.01% [8][9] Active Trading Accounts - In terms of active trading accounts, Huatai Securities leads with a 10.29% share, followed closely by Dongfang Caifu Securities at 9.94% [15] Market Maker Support - The number of market makers providing liquidity for ETFs has increased, with 21 primary market makers and 12 general market makers servicing 812 fund products as of September [15]

Core Insights - The ETF market in China is experiencing significant growth, with a total market value of 56,258.27 billion yuan as of September 2025, reflecting a 7.65% increase from the previous period [3][4] - Major brokerage firms are showing strong competition in the ETF space, with a "duopoly" emerging between China Galaxy Securities and Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, which together hold 39.49% of the market share in the Shanghai market [3][4] Market Overview - As of September 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange has 935 fund products, of which 760 are ETFs, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange has 841 fund products with 555 ETFs [3] - The total market value of ETFs in the Shanghai market is 40,003.11 billion yuan, and in the Shenzhen market, it is 16,255.16 billion yuan, with a total share of 9,648.33 billion units [3] Brokerage Performance - In terms of ETF holdings, China Galaxy Securities leads the Shanghai market with a 22.75% market share, followed by Shenwan Hongyuan Securities at 16.74% [4] - Guotai Junan Securities has seen a significant increase in its market share to 8.04%, surpassing CITIC Securities, which holds 6.87% [4] Trading Activity - In September, CITIC Securities topped the Shanghai market in ETF trading volume with an 11.24% share, while Huatai Securities followed closely with 11.09% [5][6] - Year-to-date, Huatai Securities maintains the highest cumulative trading volume at 11.01% [6] Client Engagement - In September, Huatai Securities led in the number of trading accounts for ETFs in the Shanghai market with a 10.29% share, followed by Dongfang Caifu Securities at 9.94% [10] - The active participation of non-traditional brokerage firms, such as Hongyu Information Services, highlights the growing interest in ETF trading among investors [7] Market Infrastructure - The number of market makers providing liquidity for ETFs has increased, with 21 primary market makers and 12 general market makers servicing 812 fund products as of September [11]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47% to 3839.76 points, with a weekly high of 3931.05 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 4.99% to 12688.94 points, reaching a high of 13405.51 points [1] - The ChiNext Index dropped by 5.71% to 2935.37 points, with a peak of 3124.83 points [1] - In global markets, the Nasdaq Composite rose by 2.14%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.56%, and the S&P 500 gained 1.7% [1] - In the Asia-Pacific region, the Hang Seng Index fell by 3.97%, and the Nikkei 225 decreased by 1.05% [1] ETF Market Performance - The median weekly return for stock ETFs was -4.14% [2] - The highest weekly return among scale index ETFs was 0.28% for the China Asset Management SSE 50 ETF [2] - The highest weekly return among industry index ETFs was 5.26% for the Huabao CSI Bank ETF [2] - The top five stock ETFs by weekly return included multiple bank-focused ETFs, with the Huabao CSI Bank ETF leading at 5.26% [3][5] ETF Liquidity - Average daily trading volume for stock ETFs decreased by 11.7%, while average daily trading volume increased by 17.3% [6] ETF Fund Flows - The top five stock ETFs by fund inflow included the Huabao CSI Bank ETF with an inflow of 1.186 billion yuan [9] - The top five stock ETFs by fund outflow included the Penghua CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme ETF with an outflow of 771 million yuan [10] ETF Financing and Margin Trading - The financing balance for stock ETFs decreased from 47.3024 billion yuan to 46.9206 billion yuan [11] - The highest financing buy amount was for the Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF, totaling 705 million yuan [11] ETF Market Size - The total market size for ETFs reached 55,239.08 billion yuan, a decrease of 851.69 billion yuan from the previous week [14] - Stock ETFs accounted for 36,092.2 billion yuan, representing the largest category within the ETF market [14][16] ETF Issuance and Establishment - No new ETFs were issued last week, but one new ETF, the GF CSI Satellite Industry ETF, was established [17] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities expects stable performance in bank Q3 reports, with a positive trend in interest margins and stable non-performing loan generation [17] - Haitong Securities notes that the bank sector is relatively insulated from external shocks, presenting a potential opportunity for allocation [17]

Macro and Strategy Research - The report discusses the evolution of exchange rate systems globally, categorizing them into four types: hard peg, soft peg, floating exchange rates, and others. It highlights that the choice of exchange rate systems is influenced by various constraints, including trade development and financial stability, alongside monetary policy independence [3] - The Chinese yuan's exchange rate mechanism is based on market supply and demand, referencing a basket of currencies, and follows a managed floating exchange rate system. This system has evolved through four stages, balancing government guidance and market demand while ensuring financial stability [3][4] Yuan Exchange Rate Analysis Framework - A "3+1" framework is established for analyzing the yuan's exchange rate from long, medium, and short-term perspectives, incorporating institutional regulation. Long-term factors focus on purchasing power parity, interest rate parity, and behavioral equilibrium exchange rate models. Medium-term factors emphasize the impact of the balance of payments, while short-term factors consider market sentiment and investor psychology [4] - The People's Bank of China plays a crucial role in stabilizing the foreign exchange market through various counter-cyclical adjustment measures to prevent market volatility and herd behavior [4] Yuan Exchange Rate Model Prediction - The report constructs a prediction model for the yuan's spot exchange rate using key indicators such as the US-China 2-year bond yield spread, PMI export orders, and the US dollar index. The model shows a good fit with an R^2 of 0.92, indicating a strong predictive capability for exchange rate turning points, although it notes limitations during periods of policy changes and external shocks [4] Fixed Income Research - The report indicates that the issuance guidance rates for credit bonds have generally increased, with a change of -13 basis points from the end of Q2 2025 to the end of Q3 2025. The total issuance scale in Q3 2025 saw a slight decrease, with corporate bonds and medium-term notes experiencing reduced issuance, while short-term financing bonds and targeted tools saw increases [6][7] - The credit bond market showed a slight increase in transaction volume in Q3 2025, with corporate bonds and medium-term notes seeing decreased transaction amounts. The overall yield on credit bonds has been on the rise, particularly in September [7] - The report suggests that despite market fluctuations, the conditions for a comprehensive bear market in credit bonds are insufficient, and a long-term downward trend in yields is anticipated. The strategy recommends increasing allocations during adjustments, focusing on the trend of interest rate bonds while considering individual bond coupon values [7][8] Fund Research - The report notes that all major equity market indices rose, with the largest increase in the Sci-Tech 50 index, which rose by 6.47%. The report also highlights that the public fund scale reached a new high [10][11] - In the ETF market, there was a net inflow of 103.12 billion yuan, with bond ETFs receiving the most significant inflow due to the establishment of new Sci-Tech bond ETFs. The average daily trading volume in the ETF market reached 476.15 billion yuan [11][12]

Core Insights - The ETF market is experiencing significant growth, prompting traditional active management fund companies to enter the ETF space, indicating a shift in strategic focus [1][2] - Both交银施罗德基金 and 兴证全球基金 have recently filed for their first ETF products, signaling a major strategic transition for these firms known for their active equity investments [1][2] Group 1: Company Developments -交银施罗德基金 has submitted an application for the 中证智选沪深港科技50ETF, which aims to track a newly released technology index focusing on high R&D and high-growth tech companies [2] -兴证全球基金 has filed for its first ETF, the 沪深300质量ETF, which will track the沪深300质量指数, selecting companies with stable profits and high quality from the沪深300 index [2] Group 2: Market Trends - The ETF market has surpassed a scale of 5.47 trillion yuan, growing by 1.83 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year, highlighting the increasing importance of ETFs in the investment landscape [2] - The entry of traditional active management firms into the ETF market is seen as a strategic move to meet the diverse needs of investors and enhance market competitiveness [3]