证券研究报告 | 2025年12月28日 基金周报 中国 ETF 市场总规模突破 6 万亿，基金销售子公司再迎扩容 核心观点 金融工程周报 上周市场回顾。上周 A 股市场主要宽基指数全线上涨，中证 500、创业 板指、中小板指收益靠前，收益分别为 4.03%、3.90%、3.88%，上证 综指、沪深 300、科创 50 收益靠后，收益分别为 1.88%、1.95%、2.85%。 从成交额来看，上周主要宽基指数成交额均有所上升。行业方面，上周 有色金属、国防军工、基础化工收益靠前，收益分别为 6.45%、6.39%、 5.41%，商贸零售、银行、煤炭收益靠后，收益分别为-1.31%、-0.89%、 -0.89%。 截至上周五，央行逆回购净回笼资金 348 亿元，逆回购到期 4575 亿元， 净公开市场投放 4227 亿元。除 10 年期外，不同期限的国债利率均有所 下行，利差扩大 7.43BP。 上周共上报 77 只基金，较上上周申报数量有所增加。申报的产品包括 1 只 REITs，2 只 QDII，8 只 FOF，易方达中证全指红利质量 ETF、前海 开源上证科创板 100ETF、天弘创业板新能源 ETF、鹏 ...

Market Overview - In the week of December 15-19, 2025, gold prices increased while domestic equity market indices experienced fluctuations, with the ChiNext index showing a significant decline [4] - The retail trade, non-bank financial, and beauty care sectors saw the highest gains, while the electronics, power equipment, and machinery sectors faced the largest declines [4] Fund Issuance - A total of 40 new funds were established in the domestic market this week, with a combined issuance of 18.321 billion units. This includes 8 bond funds, 14 equity funds, 11 mixed funds, 3 FOF funds, and 4 money market funds [5] Fund Performance Tracking - The long-term thematic fund indices showed that financial and real estate theme funds performed well, while TMT theme funds experienced a net value decline. As of December 19, 2025, the net value changes for various thematic funds were as follows: financial and real estate (2.17%), national defense and military industry (1.75%), cyclical (1.68%), consumption (0.92%), industry rotation (-0.32%), industry balance (-0.65%), new energy (-1.66%), pharmaceuticals (-1.85%), and TMT (-2.02%) [6] ETF Market Tracking - This week, stock ETFs saw significant inflows, with various broad-based ETFs receiving increased investments. The median return for stock ETFs was -0.33%, with a net inflow of 55.232 billion yuan. Hong Kong stock ETFs had a median return of -2.06% and a net inflow of 12.373 billion yuan [7][8] - Broad-based ETFs experienced a total inflow of 33.739 billion yuan, while TMT theme ETFs saw an inflow of 6.652 billion yuan [8] ESG Financial Products Tracking - This week, 31 new green bonds were issued, totaling 18.530 billion yuan. The cumulative issuance of green bonds in the domestic market reached 5.15 trillion yuan, with 4,427 bonds issued [9] - The domestic market currently has 211 ESG funds with a total scale of 149.677 billion yuan. The median net value changes for various ESG fund types were: active equity (-1.35%), passive equity index (-0.54%), and bond ESG funds (0.06%) [9]

- The report mentions the performance of enhanced index funds, including the Ping An CSI 300 Quantitative Enhanced A fund, which achieved an excess return of 2.01% last week relative to its benchmark[5][41][43] - The Great Wall CSI 500 Enhanced A fund delivered an excess return of 0.84% last week, while the Changxin CSI 1000 Enhanced A fund achieved an excess return of 1.47% during the same period[5][41][43] - The Huixintong Guozheng 2000 Enhanced A fund performed best among the Guozheng 2000 Enhanced Index funds, with an excess return of 0.69% last week[5][41][43] - Over the past year, the best-performing enhanced index fund in the CSI 300 category was the E Fund CSI 300 Select Enhanced A fund, with an excess return of 13.34%[42][43] - In the CSI 500 category, the Penghua CSI 500 Enhanced A fund achieved the highest excess return of 17.85% over the past year[42][43] - The Huixintong CSI 1000 Enhanced A fund delivered the best performance in the CSI 1000 category, with an excess return of 25.83% over the past year[42][43] - The Huixintong Guozheng 2000 Enhanced A fund also led the Guozheng 2000 category, with an excess return of 30.78% over the past year[42][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of November 21, ETF products declined overall in the past two weeks. Among domestic major broad - based ETFs, the Shanghai Composite 50 had the smallest decline, and among industry and theme products, the consumption - themed ETF had the smallest decline [2]. - In the past two weeks, among domestic major broad - based ETFs, the Science and Technology Innovation Board 50, CSI 500, ChiNext Index, and CSI 1000 ETFs had the highest net inflows of funds. On November 21, major broad - based and technology - themed ETFs had significant net inflows [2]. - In the past two weeks, funds in cycle, military, and new energy ETFs changed from net outflows to net inflows; funds in technology, dividend, and other large - manufacturing ETFs accelerated their inflows; while the inflow speed of funds in pharmaceutical, consumption, and financial real - estate ETFs slowed down [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 ETF Market Review 3.1.1 Main Types of ETF Fund Flows Overview - In terms of broad - based ETFs, the Science and Technology Innovation Board 50, CSI 500, ChiNext Index, and CSI 1000 ETFs had relatively high net inflows in the past two weeks. For example, the Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 had a net inflow of 90.66 billion yuan in the past two weeks [9]. - Among industry - themed ETFs, technology ETFs had an accelerated inflow of funds in the past two weeks, with a net inflow of 322.73 billion yuan. New energy ETFs changed from net outflows to net inflows, with a net inflow of 28.34 billion yuan [9]. 3.1.2 Cumulative Fund Flows of Main Types of ETFs - For broad - based ETFs, since 2025, the fund trend of major broad - based ETFs has changed from outflows to inflows and then back to outflows. In the past two weeks, the overall funds of major broad - based ETFs turned into net inflows [11]. - For industry and theme ETFs, technology ETFs turned to net inflows since March after a large - scale outflow at the beginning of the year, and the inflow speed accelerated in the past two weeks. Cycle, military, and new energy ETFs changed from net outflows to net inflows [17]. - For bond ETFs, since 2025, credit - bond and treasury - bond ETFs have had the highest net inflows. In the past two weeks, convertible - bond ETFs changed from net outflows to net inflows, and treasury - bond ETFs accelerated their net inflows [17]. 3.1.3 ETF Product Structure Distribution - As of November 21, a total of 13 new ETFs were established in the market in the past two weeks, with a total issuance share of 5.828 billion shares. Among them, 12 were stock ETFs and 1 was a QDII - ETF [26]. - Compared with the end of 2024, the scale of various types of ETFs has increased. The scales of bond ETFs, commodity ETFs, industry + dividend ETFs, QDII - ETFs, and broad - based ETFs increased by 313.15%, 204.80%, 105.82%, 52.50%, and 9.24% respectively [26]. 3.1.4 Fund Manager Scale Distribution - As of November 21, China Asset Management had the largest on - exchange ETF scale, reaching 88.8558 billion yuan. The ETF management scale of E Fund expanded by more than 22 billion yuan compared with a year ago [27]. 3.2 Classification of ETF Tracking 3.2.1 Technology - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Products tracking the Hang Seng Tech Index had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while products tracking semiconductor materials and equipment had net outflows [32]. 3.2.2 Dividend - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Products tracking the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect High - Dividend Low - Volatility Index had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while products tracking the A500 Dividend Low - Volatility Index had net outflows [35]. 3.2.3 Consumption - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Products tracking the S&P 500 Consumer Select Index had a relatively high premium rate. ETFs tracking the Hang Seng Consumption Index had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while products tracking the CSI Tourism Index had net outflows [37]. 3.2.4 Pharmaceutical - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - ETFs tracking the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drugs had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while products tracking the CSI Traditional Chinese Medicine Index had net outflows [40]. 3.2.5 Large - Manufacturing - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Products tracking the Robot Index had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while products tracking the CSI National Defense Index had net outflows [43]. 3.2.6 QDII ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Products tracking the Hang Seng Tech Index had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while ETF products tracking the Hang Seng Index had net outflows [46]. 3.3 Popular - Themed ETF Tracking 3.3.1 AI - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - AI - themed products performed poorly in the past two weeks, with an average return rate of - 7.70%. Products tracking cloud computing had the smallest decline. Since 2025, funds have had an overall net inflow, and in the past two weeks, the net inflow of funds was 9.172 billion yuan [57]. 3.3.2 Robot - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Robot - themed products performed poorly in the past two weeks, with an average return rate of - 7.30%. Products tracking the Robot Index had the smallest decline. Since February 2025, funds have shown a rapid inflow trend, and in the past two weeks, the net inflow of funds was 3.556 billion yuan [61].

ETF Market Overview - As of November 7, the performance of ETF products varied, with the CSI 2000 showing the highest increase among major broad-based ETFs, while the new energy theme ETF had the largest increase among industry and thematic products [2][9] - In the past two weeks, major broad-based ETFs such as CSI A500, CSI 2000, and Sci-Tech 50 ETF saw net inflows, while the ChiNext ETF experienced the largest net outflow [2][9] - The recent trend indicates a shift from net inflows to net outflows in cyclical and military industry ETFs, while pharmaceutical ETFs saw accelerated inflows [2][16] ETF Fund Flow Analysis - The cumulative fund flow for broad-based ETFs has shown a trend of outflows turning into inflows and then back to outflows since the beginning of 2025, with A-series ETFs consistently experiencing outflows [10] - Recent net outflows for broad-based ETFs have slowed down, with CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 transitioning from net outflows to net inflows [10][16] - As of November 7, the total number of newly established ETFs in the past two weeks was 16, with a total issuance of 6.53 billion units, of which 13 were stock ETFs and 3 were QDII ETFs [24] Thematic ETF Tracking - In the technology theme ETFs, products tracking the Hang Seng Technology index saw the highest net inflows, while those tracking consumer electronics experienced net outflows [30] - For dividend theme ETFs, products tracking the S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend Index had the highest net inflows, while those tracking the dividend index saw net outflows [32] Popular Thematic ETFs - AI-themed ETFs, which have a high proportion of AI stocks, experienced an average return of -2.99% with a net inflow of 1.56 billion [2] - New energy-themed ETFs had an average return of 7.67% but saw a net outflow of 5.72 billion [2] - The total holdings of ETFs by Central Huijin, Guoxin, and Chengtong reached 391.34 billion units, with a net outflow of 2.11 billion in the past two weeks [2]

Core Insights - The domestic ETF market has seen significant growth in 2025, with total assets increasing by nearly 2 trillion yuan, surpassing 5.7 trillion yuan for the first time [1][2] - The market has shifted focus from broad index ETFs in 2024 to industry-themed ETFs in 2025, driven by sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, AI, chips, banking, and non-ferrous metals [1][2] - Hua Bao Fund has experienced rapid growth in its ETF business, with a 60.80% increase in management scale, reaching 131.49 billion yuan in the first ten months of 2025 [1][2] ETF Market Performance - The total scale of stock ETFs in the market grew by 836.80 billion yuan, marking a 28.98% increase [2] - Hua Bao Fund's stock ETFs expanded to 39, with a management scale increase of 49.72 billion yuan, reaching a historical high of 131.49 billion yuan [2] - As of October 31, 2025, Hua Bao Fund's total ETF scale (including money market ETFs) surpassed 200 billion yuan, reaching 204.73 billion yuan, ranking in the top 10 of the public fund industry [2] Key ETFs and Their Performance - The brokerage ETF (512000) has become a market leader, with a net profit of 182.55 billion yuan for 49 listed brokerages, a 61.87% year-on-year increase [3] - Despite a modest year-to-date increase of 6.05% for the brokerage index, significant capital inflows into the brokerage ETF indicate a potential for valuation recovery [3] - Other notable ETFs include the financial technology ETF (159851) with a net inflow of 53.54 billion yuan, and the banking ETF (512800) with 105.95 billion yuan [3] Growth of High-Value ETFs - The number of ETFs with over 10 billion yuan in scale has increased, with three ETFs surpassing the 10 billion yuan mark in 2025 [4] - Hua Bao Fund now has five stock ETFs in the "billion club," with a combined scale of 106.29 billion yuan [4] - The brokerage ETF (512000) is nearing the 40 billion yuan mark, while the medical ETF (512170) leads its category with a scale of 25.64 billion yuan [4] Investment Returns - The growth in ETF scale is supported by substantial returns, with 23 of Hua Bao Fund's ETFs yielding over 20% returns since the beginning of 2025 [5] - Notable performers include the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Pharmaceutical ETF (520880) with an 83.47% increase and the Entrepreneurial Board AI ETF (159363) with an 80.97% increase [5]

Core Insights - The domestic ETF market has seen significant growth in 2025, with total assets increasing by nearly 2 trillion yuan, surpassing 5.7 trillion yuan for the first time [1][2] - The market has shifted focus from broad index ETFs in 2024 to industry-themed ETFs in 2025, driven by sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, AI, chips, banking, and non-ferrous metals [1] - Hua Bao Fund has experienced rapid growth in its ETF business, with a 60.80% increase in management scale, reaching 131.49 billion yuan in the first ten months of 2025 [2][6] ETF Market Performance - The total scale of stock ETFs in the market grew by 836.80 billion yuan, marking a 28.98% increase [2] - Hua Bao Fund's stock ETFs expanded to 39, with a management scale increase of 49.72 billion yuan, reaching a historical high of 131.49 billion yuan [2] - As of October 31, 2025, Hua Bao Fund's total ETF scale (including money market ETFs) surpassed 200 billion yuan, reaching 204.73 billion yuan, ranking in the top 10 of the public fund industry [2] Sector Highlights - The brokerage sector has become a favorite among investors, with the brokerage ETF (512000) reflecting strong performance, as the net profit of 49 listed brokerages reached 182.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.87% [5] - Despite a modest year-to-date increase of 6.05% for the brokerage index, it remains undervalued, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [5] - The financial technology ETF (159851) has also attracted significant inflows, with 5.35 billion yuan in net inflows in 2025 [5][6] Investment Trends - Hua Bao Fund's stock ETFs have seen cumulative net inflows of 33.66 billion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, setting a new record [6] - The top five ETFs, referred to as the "Five Flowers," have become indicators of market sentiment towards related sectors [6] - The number of ETFs with over 10 billion yuan in scale has increased, with the banking ETF (512800), financial technology ETF (159851), and Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) all surpassing this threshold [9] Performance of Underlying Indices - Among the indices tracked by Hua Bao Fund's ETFs, 23 have returned over 20% since the beginning of 2025, with 7 indices exceeding 50% [12] - Notable performers include the Hong Kong Innovative Pharmaceuticals ETF (520880) with an 83.47% increase, and the AI ETF (159363) with an 80.97% increase [12][18]

Group 1: ETF Market Performance - The ETF market showed mixed results on November 3, with the China-Korea Semiconductor ETF rising by 4.62% and the leading photovoltaic ETF increasing by 4.55% [1] - Several products, including the film ETF, photovoltaic index fund, and gaming ETF, saw gains of over 3%, while products like the Sci-Tech Information ETF and gold stock ETFs fell by more than 2% [1] Group 2: Photovoltaic Industry Insights - Fund managers from Huatai-PineBridge indicated that the profitability recovery in the photovoltaic industry is expected to accelerate in Q4, with potential policy-driven capacity consolidation and silicon material "stockpiling" plans enhancing supply-demand balance [1] - The demand side is focused on the year-end rush for domestic centralized projects and the overseas Christmas procurement wave, with benefits from perovskite and BC technology iterations spreading to the equipment sector [1] - According to Dong Jin from Huatai-PineBridge, long-term growth in photovoltaic installation demand is anticipated, with the current sector still in a bottoming phase; industry conditions are expected to improve as capacity gradually clears and prices stabilize [1] Group 3: Gold Investment Outlook - Huaan Fund expressed that the recent adjustment in gold, following a short-term overheating, is nearing completion, with negative events now resolved; investors are advised to focus on asset allocation to diversify risks and invest steadily [2] - Looking ahead, the potential continuation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, along with declining U.S. debt credit and global central banks maintaining gold purchases, supports the long-term rationale for gold investment [2]

Core Insights - The ETF market in China continues to expand, with significant growth potential observed in both Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [2][4] - As of September 2025, the total number of ETFs in the Shanghai market reached 760, with a total market value of 40,003.11 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.65% increase from the previous period [2] - In the Shenzhen market, there are 555 ETFs with a total market value of 16,255.16 billion yuan and a total share of 9,648.33 million [2] ETF Holdings by Brokerage Firms - The leading brokerages in the Shanghai ETF market are China Galaxy Securities and Shenwan Hongyuan, holding 22.75% and 16.74% of the market share respectively, together accounting for 39.49% [4][5] - Other notable brokerages include Guotai Junan Securities (8.04%), CITIC Securities (6.87%), and China Merchants Securities (4.74%) [5][6] ETF Trading Volume Rankings - In September, CITIC Securities topped the Shanghai market with an 11.24% share of ETF trading volume, surpassing Huatai Securities, which held 11.09% [8][9] - Year-to-date, Huatai Securities maintains the highest cumulative trading volume share at 11.01% [8][9] Active Trading Accounts - In terms of active trading accounts, Huatai Securities leads with a 10.29% share, followed closely by Dongfang Caifu Securities at 9.94% [15] Market Maker Support - The number of market makers providing liquidity for ETFs has increased, with 21 primary market makers and 12 general market makers servicing 812 fund products as of September [15]

Core Insights - The ETF market in China is experiencing significant growth, with a total market value of 56,258.27 billion yuan as of September 2025, reflecting a 7.65% increase from the previous period [3][4] - Major brokerage firms are showing strong competition in the ETF space, with a "duopoly" emerging between China Galaxy Securities and Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, which together hold 39.49% of the market share in the Shanghai market [3][4] Market Overview - As of September 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange has 935 fund products, of which 760 are ETFs, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange has 841 fund products with 555 ETFs [3] - The total market value of ETFs in the Shanghai market is 40,003.11 billion yuan, and in the Shenzhen market, it is 16,255.16 billion yuan, with a total share of 9,648.33 billion units [3] Brokerage Performance - In terms of ETF holdings, China Galaxy Securities leads the Shanghai market with a 22.75% market share, followed by Shenwan Hongyuan Securities at 16.74% [4] - Guotai Junan Securities has seen a significant increase in its market share to 8.04%, surpassing CITIC Securities, which holds 6.87% [4] Trading Activity - In September, CITIC Securities topped the Shanghai market in ETF trading volume with an 11.24% share, while Huatai Securities followed closely with 11.09% [5][6] - Year-to-date, Huatai Securities maintains the highest cumulative trading volume at 11.01% [6] Client Engagement - In September, Huatai Securities led in the number of trading accounts for ETFs in the Shanghai market with a 10.29% share, followed by Dongfang Caifu Securities at 9.94% [10] - The active participation of non-traditional brokerage firms, such as Hongyu Information Services, highlights the growing interest in ETF trading among investors [7] Market Infrastructure - The number of market makers providing liquidity for ETFs has increased, with 21 primary market makers and 12 general market makers servicing 812 fund products as of September [11]