晨会纪要（2025/10/09） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.10.09） 宏观及策略研究 外汇系列：人民币汇率制度背景和分析框架——宏观经济专题 基金研究 固定收益研究 弱势期关注韧性，把握调整后的配置窗口——信用债四季度投资策略展望 权益市场主要指数全部上涨，公募基金规模再创新高——公募基金周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 纪 1、海内外汇率制度变迁 IMF 将各国汇率制度分为四大类：硬盯住、软盯住、浮动汇率和其他。纵观历史，金本位和布雷顿森林体 系时期的"黄金-美元"本位，均是以黄金类实物资产为"锚"，多数国家汇率制度也主要是采取硬盯住；在 此之后，国家信用主导国际货币体系，美元逐渐成为锚定物，各国汇率制度也随之开始向更加灵活的软盯 住变动。然而，随后的发展并未如预期那样向着更加灵活的浮动汇率制度变动，反而是逐渐向软盯住集中。 可见全球汇率制度的选择除了货币政策独立性以外，还面临着贸易发展、金 ...

Core Insights - The ETF market is experiencing significant growth, prompting traditional active management fund companies to enter the ETF space, indicating a shift in strategic focus [1][2] - Both交银施罗德基金 and 兴证全球基金 have recently filed for their first ETF products, signaling a major strategic transition for these firms known for their active equity investments [1][2] Group 1: Company Developments -交银施罗德基金 has submitted an application for the 中证智选沪深港科技50ETF, which aims to track a newly released technology index focusing on high R&D and high-growth tech companies [2] -兴证全球基金 has filed for its first ETF, the 沪深300质量ETF, which will track the沪深300质量指数, selecting companies with stable profits and high quality from the沪深300 index [2] Group 2: Market Trends - The ETF market has surpassed a scale of 5.47 trillion yuan, growing by 1.83 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year, highlighting the increasing importance of ETFs in the investment landscape [2] - The entry of traditional active management firms into the ETF market is seen as a strategic move to meet the diverse needs of investors and enhance market competitiveness [3]

（文章来源：第一财经） 境内ETF市场持续吸引资金布局。根据最新数据显示，境内ETF总规模约5.5万亿元，已超越日本，是亚 洲最大的ETF市场，其中沪市ETF规模占比超七成。目前，沪市ETF规模达3.9万亿元，其中股票ETF规 模2.6万亿元，债券ETF规模超5300亿元。沪市ETF产品数量超760只，参与账户数约1000万户。 ...

证券研究报告 近一周有 4 只 ETF 产品新启动认购，包括跟踪恒生生物科技、中证 800 自 由现金流、中证卫星产业和上证 580 指数的 ETF。近一周有 7 只 ETF 新成 立，募集总规模 45.77 亿元，其中 1 只跟踪恒生科技指数的 ETF1 日内结募， 募集规模超过 12 亿元，国企红利 ETF 和红利低波 ETF 募集规模小于投资 港股的 ETF。近一周有 5 只 ETF 新申报，其中包括光伏、机器人、芯片设 计主题的 3 只 ETF。 绝对收益 ETF 模拟组合：今年以来上涨 7.47% 金价突破前高，黄金 ETF 获资金流入 华泰研究 林晓明 研究员 2025 年 9 月 28 日│中国内地 ETF 点评 ETF 市场观察：14 只科创债 ETF 上市，黄金 ETF 获资金流入 债券 ETF 方面，2025 年 9 月 24 日，第二批共 14 只科创债 ETF 上市，上 市首日资金净流入超 600 亿元，首日成交额约 775 亿元，当日规模总额超 1000 亿元，其中 5 只 ETF 首日规模超百亿。商品 ETF 方面，海外 SPDR 黄金 ETF 和 iShares 黄金 ETF 的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xingsheng Global Fund has officially entered the ETF market by submitting its first ETF product, the "Xingsheng Global CSI 300 Quality ETF," marking a significant shift from its traditional focus on active equity investment [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Product Launch - The "Xingsheng Global CSI 300 Quality ETF" is currently under review by the regulatory authority as of September 25 [2]. - This ETF aims to track the CSI 300 Quality Index, which reflects the performance of 50 companies with high quality factor scores from the CSI 300 Index [2][3]. - If approved, this ETF will be the first in the industry to track the CSI 300 Quality Index, focusing on high-quality A-share assets [2]. Group 2: Market Context - As of September 26, there are 1,315 ETF products in the market, with a total scale of 5.47 trillion yuan, representing a 46.6% increase from the end of the previous year [1][4]. - The ETF market has been expanding rapidly, becoming a key area for public fund institutions to compete [4]. - The trend of entering the ETF market has been observed among various public fund companies since 2020, with many institutions recognizing the importance of ETFs for growth [4][5]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Challenges - The ETF market is characterized by increasing competition and product homogeneity, making differentiation crucial for latecomers [5]. - Public fund companies are encouraged to develop thematic products in high-growth sectors such as technology, healthcare, and consumer goods, as well as Smart Beta ETFs [5].

Core Viewpoint - The entry of Xingzheng Global Fund into the 5.4 trillion yuan ETF market signals a significant move by a major public fund company, with the submission of its first ETF product, the Xingzheng Global CSI 300 Quality ETF, to the regulatory authority [2][4]. Group 1: ETF Market Overview - The Chinese ETF market has seen rapid growth, with a total of 1,318 ETF products reaching a scale of 5.46 trillion yuan as of September 24, marking a 46.4% increase from the end of last year [8]. - The ETF market has attracted numerous public fund companies, indicating a trend towards active participation in this sector [10]. Group 2: Xingzheng Global Fund's ETF Product - Xingzheng Global Fund's ETF will track the CSI 300 Quality Index, which was launched on March 18 this year and includes 50 companies selected for their stable operations and strong profitability [6]. - As of September 25, the CSI 300 Quality Index has risen by 4.99% this year, with top-weighted stocks including Kweichow Moutai and Huya Medical [6]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The ETF market is becoming increasingly competitive, with many fund companies entering the space, but there are still opportunities for differentiation through innovative and niche products [11]. - The shift from "scale expansion" to "quality enhancement" in the ETF market suggests that focusing on specific demands and innovative products may provide competitive advantages [11].

Report Overview - Report Title: "科技及高制板块交易最热，金融板块资金流入最多——ETF市场周报2025.09.19" [2] - Report Date: September 21, 2025 [2] - Analysts: Li Qianyun, Xiong Jingyan [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The ETF market has 1312 products with a total scale of 53110.15 billion yuan. Stock - type ETFs dominate in quantity and scale. In the A - share market, the technology and high - end manufacturing sectors have the highest trading heat, while the financial sector has the most capital inflows. In the Hong Kong and global markets, the technology sector in the Hong Kong market has the highest trading heat, and the technology sector in the Hong Kong market also has the most capital inflows [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 ETF Market Overview - **ETF Quantity Distribution**: There are 1312 ETFs in the market, with a total scale of 53110.15 billion yuan. Stock - type ETFs are the most numerous (1036) and have a scale of 35295.63 billion yuan, accounting for 66.46% of the market scale. Among stock - type ETFs, theme - index ETFs are the most numerous (483) with a scale of 7127.91 billion yuan [9] - **ETF Tracking Index**: In the A - share market, the top three indices with the highest current valuations among the 30 indices with the highest ETF tracking scale are Kechuang 100, Kechuang Chip, and Kechuang 50. In the Hong Kong and global markets, the top three indices with the highest current valuations among the 20 indices with the highest ETF tracking scale are Nasdaq Technology Market - Cap Weighted, Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drugs, and Nasdaq 100. For A - share broad - based indices, the weekly changes of CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are - 0.44%, 0.32%, and 0.21% respectively. The index with the highest weekly increase is Kechuang Semiconductor Materials and Equipment (7.49%), and the index with the highest weekly decrease is Hong Kong Stock Connect Non - Banking (- 6.39%) [5][12][13] 3.2 Equity ETF Valuation - **A - share Market ETF Valuation Overview**: Among the 30 indices with the highest ETF tracking scale in the A - share market, the top three indices with the highest current valuations are Kechuang 100, Kechuang Chip, and Kechuang 50, with current PEs of 277.17, 203.14, and 176.49 respectively. The indices with the highest 3 - year valuation quantiles are ChiNext 50, CNI Chip, and Kechuang Chuangye 50 [17] - **Hong Kong and Global Market ETF Valuation Overview**: Among the 20 indices with the highest ETF tracking scale in the Hong Kong and global markets, the top three indices with the highest current valuations are Nasdaq Technology Market - Cap Weighted, Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drugs, and Nasdaq 100, with current PEs of 37.53, 37.18, and 36.88 respectively. The indices with the highest 3 - year valuation quantiles are S&P 500 Net Total Return, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index [19] 3.3 A - share Market ETF - **A - share Market ETF Sector Overview**: In the A - share market, the technology and high - end manufacturing sectors have the highest trading heat, with a daily average trading volume of 394.82 billion yuan. The financial sector has the most capital inflows (116.52 billion yuan), and the large - medical sector has the most capital outflows (6.24 billion yuan) [23] - **A - share Market ETF Trading Heat**: The ETF with the highest trading heat is Huaxia SSE STAR Market 50 ETF, with a daily average trading volume of 63.32 billion yuan, tracking the Kechuang 50 index. The top ten ETFs in terms of daily average trading volume involve sectors such as Kechuang & Chuangye, large - cap, technology and high - end manufacturing, and finance. The ETF with the largest increase in trading heat is Harvest SSE STAR Market Chip ETF, with a daily average trading volume increase of 9.11 billion yuan, tracking the Kechuang Chip index [27][29] - **A - share Market ETF Fund Flow**: The ETF with the most capital inflows is Cathay CSI All - China Securities Company ETF, with an inflow of 43.69 billion yuan, tracking the securities company index. The top ten ETFs in terms of inflow involve sectors such as finance, technology and high - end manufacturing, large - cap, and consumption. The ETF with the most capital outflows is Huaxia SSE STAR Market 50 ETF, with an outflow of 41.2 billion yuan, tracking the Kechuang 50 index [32] - **A - share Market ETF Share Growth**: By sector, the sector with a relatively high ETF share growth rate is the home appliance sector, while the sector with a relatively high reduction rate is the computer sector [34] 3.4 Hong Kong and Global Market ETF - **Hong Kong and Global Market ETF Overview**: In the Hong Kong and global markets, the technology sector in the Hong Kong market has the highest trading heat, with a daily average trading volume of 492.24 billion yuan. The technology sector in the Hong Kong market has the most capital inflows (99.43 billion yuan), and the large - cap sector in the Hong Kong market has the most capital outflows (4.84 billion yuan) [38] - **Hong Kong and Global Market ETF Trading Heat**: The ETF with the highest trading heat is E Fund CSI Hong Kong Securities Investment Theme ETF, with a daily average trading volume of 133.59 billion yuan, tracking the Hong Kong Securities index. The top ten ETFs in terms of daily average trading volume involve sectors such as finance, large - medical, and technology. The ETF with the largest increase in trading heat is Huaxia Hang Seng Internet Technology Industry ETF, with a daily average trading volume increase of 28.89 billion yuan, tracking the Hang Seng Internet Technology Industry index [41][45] - **Hong Kong and Global Market ETF Fund Flow**: The ETF with the most capital inflows is Fullgoal CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF, with an inflow of 30.92 billion yuan, tracking the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet index. The top ten ETFs in terms of inflow involve sectors such as technology, finance, and resources. The ETF with the most capital outflows is Huatai - Peregrine Hang Seng Technology ETF, with an outflow of 6.1 billion yuan, tracking the Hang Seng Technology index [47] 3.5 Industry Crowding Tracking - This week, the home appliance sector has the highest crowding degree, followed by the food and beverage, non - banking finance, and power and public utilities sectors. Compared with last week, the consumer services sector has a relatively large increase in crowding degree, while the steel sector has a decrease. The crowding degree of the consumer services sector is at a high level in the past year, reaching the 88.68% quantile. The crowding degrees of the power equipment and new energy, computer, and comprehensive finance sectors are historically low [52] 3.6 WTS ETF Recommendation - The screening rule is that the WTS AI model scores the indices, selects those with a score above 0.8, then finds the corresponding ETFs, selects those with a daily average trading volume of more than 30 million yuan in the recent 30 days, and selects the ETFs with a lower IOPV premium rate for the same index [55]

Market Overview - The equity market saw all major indices rise last week, with the Sci-Tech 50 increasing by 5.48% and both the Small and Medium-sized Board Index and the CSI 500 rising over 3% [3] - Among the 31 first-level industries, 26 experienced gains, with the top five performing sectors being electronics, real estate, agriculture, media, and non-ferrous metals; the bottom five were comprehensive, banking, oil and petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, and leisure services [3] Public Fund Market - The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice to further promote the regular application and recommendation of real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the infrastructure sector [4] - The average increase for equity funds was 2.28%, while fixed income plus funds rose by 0.16%, with a positive return ratio of 54.51%; pure bond funds saw an average decline of 0.15% [4] - The overall equity fund position was measured at 78.29% as of September 12, 2025, an increase of 1.25 percentage points from the previous period [4] ETF Market - The ETF market experienced a net inflow of 4.434 billion yuan last week, with cross-border ETFs seeing a net inflow of 18.693 billion yuan, while stock ETFs had a net outflow of 5.382 billion yuan [5] - The average daily trading volume in the ETF market reached 439.932 billion yuan, with a daily turnover rate of 10.20% [5] - Major inflow themes included brokerages, batteries, and Hong Kong innovative pharmaceuticals, while broad-based funds continued to see outflows [5] Fund Issuance - A total of 55 new funds were issued last week, an increase of 11 from the previous period, with 39 newly established funds, up by 1 [6] - The total amount raised by new funds was 21.794 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.779 billion yuan from the prior period [6]

Group 1: Fund Research - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board performed outstandingly, with the Communication and Electronics sectors leading the industry [3] - The major indices in the equity market continued to rise, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by 13.31% and the ChiNext Index rising over 5% [3] - All 31 first-level industries in the Shenwan classification saw gains, with the top five sectors being Communication, Electronics, Comprehensive, Computer, and Beauty Care [3] Group 2: Company Research - Aima Technology (603529) - Aima Technology reported a revenue of 13.031 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.04%, and a net profit of 1.213 billion yuan, up 27.56% [9] - The company's gross margin and net margin improved to 19.25% and 9.49%, respectively, with significant growth in operating cash flow, which increased by 123.03% to 2.586 billion yuan [9][12] - Aima's product development strategy focuses on differentiation by addressing market demand and consumption scenarios, leading to a diverse product portfolio [12] Group 3: Company Research - Tuosida (300607) - Tuosida's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1.086 billion yuan, a decline of 36.98%, with a net profit of 29 million yuan, down 19.75% [16] - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation, focusing on product business growth, with industrial robot revenue increasing by 22.55% and CNC machine tool revenue rising by 83.74% [16] - The company anticipates a turnaround in profitability as it continues to divest from low-margin project-based businesses [17] Group 4: Industry Research - Light Industry Manufacturing & Textile Apparel - The price of packaging paper has strengthened, with corrugated paper and boxboard prices rising by 180 yuan/ton and 25 yuan/ton, respectively, since the end of July [6][8] - The performance of companies benefiting from the "old-for-new" policy, such as soft home furnishings and electric two-wheelers, showed significant growth in their mid-year reports [8] - The light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the CSI 300 Index by 1.36 percentage points, while the textile and apparel sector lagged by 1.67 percentage points [7][8]

TMX Group (TMXX.F) FY Conference Summary Company Overview - TMX Group operates key global markets, clearinghouses, and data analytics platforms within the capital market space [1][2] Core Industry Insights - Over 40% of TMX Group's revenues are derived from Global Insights, with aspirations to exceed 50% in the long term [6][8] - The company aims to grow recurring revenue to more than two-thirds of total revenue [7] - TMX Group is focused on expanding revenue outside of Canada while maintaining its core Canadian operations [7][8] Global Insights Strategy - Global Insights includes businesses like Trayport, TMX Verify, and TMX DataLinks, which are expected to grow at high single to double-digit rates [8] - TMX Verify has been performing well, consistently meeting high growth expectations since its acquisition [12][13] - The ETF market is experiencing significant growth, with TMX Verify positioned to leverage this trend [14][17] TMX Verify Performance - TMX Verify has successfully addressed client needs for custom index and benchmark capabilities, particularly in the U.S. and Canada [11][12] - The digital distribution network of TMX Verify is crucial for helping investment managers gain traction [20][22] - Recent acquisitions in Europe, including Index Research and ETF Stream, are expected to enhance TMX Verify's capabilities and market presence [25][27] Trayport Overview - Trayport serves as a digital trading platform for brokers and traders, facilitating price discovery and trade execution across various asset classes [30][31] - Subscriber growth remains strong, with significant expansion into the U.S. and Japan markets [34][35] - The addition of premium services like charting and analytics is driving further growth for Trayport [36] Derivatives Market Insights - The Montreal Exchange has seen a growth rate of 17% in 2024, with expectations for continued growth despite recent volatility [39][41] - The company is developing new products to sustain growth in the derivatives market [40] Tokenization and Digital Assets - TMX Group is monitoring developments in tokenization and digital assets, with plans to adopt these technologies as market structures evolve [42][44] - The company aims to be a fast follower in Canada, leveraging its clearinghouses for security and robustness in the tokenization process [47][48] U.S. ATS Development - The U.S. ATS is focused on enhancing order execution quality, with ongoing discussions about expanding features based on client feedback [50][52] IPO Market Outlook - The IPO market is currently experiencing cyclical lows, but TMX Group anticipates a recovery aligned with U.S. market trends [54][56] - The company has diversified its business, achieving record results despite low capital formation activity [59][60] Conclusion - TMX Group is strategically positioned for growth through its diversified offerings, focus on recurring revenue, and expansion into new markets and technologies. The company remains optimistic about future opportunities in both the domestic and international capital markets.