2026 年 1 月 3 日 行业研究 4Q25 特斯拉交付低于预期，2026E 以旧换新补贴延续或提振销量 12 月蔚来重回新势力榜首：1）蔚来交付量同比+54.6%/环比+32.7%至 48,135 辆（NIO 品牌同比+54.8%/环比+75.4%至 31,897 辆、乐道品牌同比-13.1%/环 比-21.9%至 9,154 辆）；2）理想交付量同比-24.4%/环比+33.3%至 44,246 辆； 3）小鹏交付量同比+2.2%/环比+2.1%至 37,508 辆。 新年购车优惠陆续推出：特斯拉：国产 Model 3 全系将于 2026/2 交付， Model Y 长续航版本维持 2026/2 交付、后轮驱动版本维持 2026/1 交付，Model YL 将 于 2026/2 交付；Model 3 和 Model Y 延续 5 年 0 息金融政策，Model YL 延续 3 年 0 息金融政策。新势力：1）理想：L6 交付周期维持 1-3 周，MEGA 交付周期 维持 1-4 周，i8 交付周期维持 2-4 周，L9 交付周期维持 1-5 周（vs. 12 月为 3-5 周），L7 和 L8 交付周 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of November 21, ETF products declined overall in the past two weeks. Among domestic major broad - based ETFs, the Shanghai Composite 50 had the smallest decline, and among industry and theme products, the consumption - themed ETF had the smallest decline [2]. - In the past two weeks, among domestic major broad - based ETFs, the Science and Technology Innovation Board 50, CSI 500, ChiNext Index, and CSI 1000 ETFs had the highest net inflows of funds. On November 21, major broad - based and technology - themed ETFs had significant net inflows [2]. - In the past two weeks, funds in cycle, military, and new energy ETFs changed from net outflows to net inflows; funds in technology, dividend, and other large - manufacturing ETFs accelerated their inflows; while the inflow speed of funds in pharmaceutical, consumption, and financial real - estate ETFs slowed down [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 ETF Market Review 3.1.1 Main Types of ETF Fund Flows Overview - In terms of broad - based ETFs, the Science and Technology Innovation Board 50, CSI 500, ChiNext Index, and CSI 1000 ETFs had relatively high net inflows in the past two weeks. For example, the Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 had a net inflow of 90.66 billion yuan in the past two weeks [9]. - Among industry - themed ETFs, technology ETFs had an accelerated inflow of funds in the past two weeks, with a net inflow of 322.73 billion yuan. New energy ETFs changed from net outflows to net inflows, with a net inflow of 28.34 billion yuan [9]. 3.1.2 Cumulative Fund Flows of Main Types of ETFs - For broad - based ETFs, since 2025, the fund trend of major broad - based ETFs has changed from outflows to inflows and then back to outflows. In the past two weeks, the overall funds of major broad - based ETFs turned into net inflows [11]. - For industry and theme ETFs, technology ETFs turned to net inflows since March after a large - scale outflow at the beginning of the year, and the inflow speed accelerated in the past two weeks. Cycle, military, and new energy ETFs changed from net outflows to net inflows [17]. - For bond ETFs, since 2025, credit - bond and treasury - bond ETFs have had the highest net inflows. In the past two weeks, convertible - bond ETFs changed from net outflows to net inflows, and treasury - bond ETFs accelerated their net inflows [17]. 3.1.3 ETF Product Structure Distribution - As of November 21, a total of 13 new ETFs were established in the market in the past two weeks, with a total issuance share of 5.828 billion shares. Among them, 12 were stock ETFs and 1 was a QDII - ETF [26]. - Compared with the end of 2024, the scale of various types of ETFs has increased. The scales of bond ETFs, commodity ETFs, industry + dividend ETFs, QDII - ETFs, and broad - based ETFs increased by 313.15%, 204.80%, 105.82%, 52.50%, and 9.24% respectively [26]. 3.1.4 Fund Manager Scale Distribution - As of November 21, China Asset Management had the largest on - exchange ETF scale, reaching 88.8558 billion yuan. The ETF management scale of E Fund expanded by more than 22 billion yuan compared with a year ago [27]. 3.2 Classification of ETF Tracking 3.2.1 Technology - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Products tracking the Hang Seng Tech Index had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while products tracking semiconductor materials and equipment had net outflows [32]. 3.2.2 Dividend - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Products tracking the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect High - Dividend Low - Volatility Index had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while products tracking the A500 Dividend Low - Volatility Index had net outflows [35]. 3.2.3 Consumption - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Products tracking the S&P 500 Consumer Select Index had a relatively high premium rate. ETFs tracking the Hang Seng Consumption Index had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while products tracking the CSI Tourism Index had net outflows [37]. 3.2.4 Pharmaceutical - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - ETFs tracking the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drugs had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while products tracking the CSI Traditional Chinese Medicine Index had net outflows [40]. 3.2.5 Large - Manufacturing - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Products tracking the Robot Index had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while products tracking the CSI National Defense Index had net outflows [43]. 3.2.6 QDII ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Products tracking the Hang Seng Tech Index had the highest net inflows of funds in the past two weeks, while ETF products tracking the Hang Seng Index had net outflows [46]. 3.3 Popular - Themed ETF Tracking 3.3.1 AI - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - AI - themed products performed poorly in the past two weeks, with an average return rate of - 7.70%. Products tracking cloud computing had the smallest decline. Since 2025, funds have had an overall net inflow, and in the past two weeks, the net inflow of funds was 9.172 billion yuan [57]. 3.3.2 Robot - Themed ETF Tracking in the Past Two Weeks - Robot - themed products performed poorly in the past two weeks, with an average return rate of - 7.30%. Products tracking the Robot Index had the smallest decline. Since February 2025, funds have shown a rapid inflow trend, and in the past two weeks, the net inflow of funds was 3.556 billion yuan [61].

Market Overview - The bull market has lasted for a year, with major indices showing significant gains: the North Exchange 50 Index increased by 158%, the Sci-Tech 50 Index rose by 118%, and the ChiNext Index gained 103.49% [1] - Over 1,400 stocks in the A-share market have doubled in price, representing more than 26% of the 5,324 stocks listed, with notable sectors including electronics, machinery, power equipment, computers, and automobiles [1] Fund Performance - A total of 1,276 fund products have doubled in value, with the top 10 performing funds all being actively managed, indicating the strength of fund managers [2] - The best-performing fund, Debon Xinxing Value, achieved a return of 279.93%, with themes including CPO (4 funds), North Exchange (3 funds), and robotics (3 funds) [2][3] Underperforming Funds - Among over 20,000 funds, only 216 reported negative returns, with the worst performer being Dongcai Value Qihang C, which declined by 10.78% [4] - Notably, seven of the worst-performing funds belong to GF Fund, all managed by the same manager, Wang Mingxu [5] Investment Insights - The analysis suggests that during a bull market, holding onto key investments without frequent trading is a wise strategy, as significant profits are made through holding rather than trading [8] - Investors are encouraged to focus on market conditions rather than personal returns when making decisions [8] - Common investment pitfalls include selling too early or buying into losing positions, emphasizing the need for a well-defined strategy [8] - Maintaining a consistent presence in the market allows investors to better navigate fluctuations and refine their trading systems [8]

ETF Market Overview - As of September 19, the overall performance of ETF products in the past two weeks has been good, with the Sci-Tech 50 showing the highest increase among major broad-based ETFs, while technology sector ETFs had the largest gains among industry and thematic products [3][10] - In the past two weeks, major broad-based ETFs, except for the ChiNext Index, experienced net outflows, with the Sci-Tech 50 ETF having the largest net outflow [3][10] Fund Flow Analysis - In the past two weeks, the military industry ETF shifted from net inflow to net outflow, while funds accelerated into dividend, pharmaceutical, large manufacturing, financial real estate, and new energy ETFs, with inflow speeds for cyclical, consumer, and technology ETFs slowing down [16] - For bond ETFs, there was a significant inflow into credit bond ETFs, while convertible bonds, short-term financing, and government bond ETFs shifted from net inflow to net outflow, with policy financial bonds experiencing accelerated net outflows and local government bonds seeing slowed net inflows [16] ETF Product Structure - As of September 19, a total of 27 new ETFs were established in the past two weeks, with a total issuance of 48.362 billion units, consisting of 14 pure bond ETFs and 13 stock ETFs [19] - Compared to the end of 2024, the scale of various ETFs has increased, with bond ETFs, commodity ETFs, industry + dividend ETFs, QDII ETFs, and broad-based ETFs increasing by 237.50%, 111.89%, 94.45%, 46.09%, and 11.03% respectively [19] Thematic ETF Tracking - In the past two weeks, products tracking semiconductor-related indices, such as the China-Korea Semiconductor, performed well, while funds tracking the National Chip Index experienced net outflows [25][28] - The AI-themed ETFs, which have a high proportion of AI stocks, had an average return of 6.67% in the past two weeks, with a net outflow of 1.557 billion yuan [3] - The robotics-themed ETFs showed an average return of 8.30% in the past two weeks, with a net inflow of 8.473 billion yuan [3] Fund Manager Scale Distribution - As of September 19, Huaxia Fund had the largest ETF on-market scale at 863.966 billion yuan, while E Fund's ETF management scale expanded by over 370 billion yuan compared to one year ago [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for several companies in the high-end manufacturing sector, particularly those involved in robotics [5]. Core Insights - The market is currently experiencing a strong upward trend driven by positive news flow, particularly in the robotics sector, with the Wind Robotics Index rising by 18.2% in September [1]. - There is a notable divergence between current valuations and financial conditions, suggesting that while the market remains optimistic, the potential for correction exists as the sector approaches previous highs [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the robotics theme, indicating that short-term trading strategies should include profit-taking rather than simple holding [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The robotics theme stocks have shown strong performance, with significant gains in various companies, such as Hanwei Technology up 27.5% and Wolong Electric up 39.8% [1]. - The report notes that many high-end manufacturers have not yet surpassed their March peaks, indicating potential for further gains [2]. Financial Analysis - The financial conditions of robotics manufacturers have shown resilience, with actual order acquisition and technological advancements driving recent market increases [2]. - The report highlights that the current market valuation may not be sustainable without further financial improvements, as the sector is experiencing high premiums [2][3]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term prospects for the robotics industry remain positive, driven by strong policy support, talent influx, and significant R&D investments [3]. - The report suggests that the emergence of fully autonomous humanoid robots and a new robotics industry could occur in the future, although current applications are limited to industrial and logistics sectors [3].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple robotics-themed ETFs have shown strong performance, indicating growing investor interest in the robotics sector [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - E Fund Robotics ETF (159530) increased by 1.8% with a trading volume exceeding 800 million [1] - Penghua Robotics ETF (159278) and the Robotics 50 ETF (159559) both rose by over 1.5% [1]

Group 1 - The current market is in a period of policy dividend release and industrial transformation, with significant characteristics of volume fluctuations and hot topic rotations [1][3] - Short-term focus can be on the film and entertainment sector (performance catalysts + summer consumption), AI computing power industry chain (chip supply recovery + domestic substitution), innovative pharmaceuticals (optimized collection policies), and robotics themes for trading opportunities [1][3] - The A-share communication industry leads with a 1.76% increase, driven by Nvidia's resumption of H20 chip supply to China and rising expectations for domestic computing power industry chain [2][3] Group 2 - The A-share market shows mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.13% to 3500.62 points, while the Shenzhen Component, ChiNext Index, and STAR Market Index show increases of 0.11%, 0.36%, and 0.39% respectively [2] - The Hong Kong stock market remains stable, with the Hang Seng Index up by 0.28% to 24658.55 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 0.61% to 5464.40 points, indicating a focus on technology and healthcare sectors [2][3] - The durable consumer goods index dropped by 5.38%, reflecting market caution regarding consumer profit-taking pressures and the recovery strength of the real estate chain [3] Group 3 - Mid-term recommendations suggest focusing on the pan-technology sector, capturing AI-driven computing power, applications, and data elements as the main line [3] - New consumption sectors should pay attention to domestic brands catering to Generation Z needs, interactive entertainment, and smart home products [3] - Investors are advised to be cautious of traditional cyclical industry fluctuations and high valuation risks, prioritizing targets with clear industrial logic, strong policy support, and solid performance backing [3]

ETF Market Overview - The performance of ETFs has been generally positive in the last two weeks, with the exception of the Sci-Tech 100 and Sci-Tech 50 ETFs. The largest gains were seen in ETFs tracking the Hang Seng Index and the CSI 2000, while the manufacturing sector ETFs showed the highest increase among industry and thematic products [3][11]. - In terms of fund flows, major broad-based ETFs experienced significant net inflows, particularly the CSI 300 and the SSE 50 ETFs. After a substantial outflow at the beginning of the year, technology ETFs have shifted to net inflows since March, although the inflow rate has slowed in the last two weeks [3][11]. Fund Flow Analysis - As of April 25, 2025, a total of 15 new ETFs were launched, with a combined issuance of 8.99 billion shares, all of which are stock ETFs. Compared to the end of 2024, the scale of various ETFs has increased, with commodity ETFs, bond ETFs, industry + dividend ETFs, QDII ETFs, and broad-based ETFs rising by 120.33%, 38.17%, 14.44%, 7.58%, and 1.14% respectively [21][22]. - The cumulative fund flow for broad-based ETFs has shown a trend of inflows since early April 2025, particularly for the CSI 300, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000 ETFs, with the CSI 300 ETF seeing a net inflow exceeding 130 billion [12][14]. Thematic ETF Performance - The technology-themed ETFs have shown strong performance, particularly those tracking the new exchange's Southeast Asia Technology Index, with overseas technology ETFs outperforming domestic ones. In terms of fund flows, ETFs tracking the Hang Seng Technology Index have seen significant net inflows, while those tracking 5G communications have experienced outflows [27][28]. - The healthcare-themed ETFs have also performed well, with those tracking innovative drug indices seeing notable gains. However, funds have shifted from inflows to outflows for medical, military, dividend, and consumer ETFs in the last two weeks [16][28]. ETF Product Structure - The structure of newly launched ETFs indicates a growing trend towards thematic and sector-specific investments, with a notable increase in the issuance of stock ETFs. The overall market for ETFs is expanding, reflecting a shift in investor preferences towards diversified and thematic investment strategies [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the machinery equipment industry as of March 12, 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for February is reported at 50.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued expansion in the manufacturing sector [6][21]. - Domestic demand remains weak, but there is a notable improvement in overseas demand, particularly in specific sub-sectors such as injection molding machines, machine tools, air compressors, and industrial control equipment [6][13]. - The general equipment index increased by 15.1% from January to February, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 by approximately 16% [9]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The general equipment index rose by 15.1% from January 1 to February 28, 2025, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite by 16 percentage points and the CSI 300 by about 16.2 percentage points [9]. - Sub-sectors such as reducers, industrial control, and industrial robots saw substantial gains, driven by themes related to robotics [9]. Demand Tracking - The demand for general equipment shows structural differences, with leading companies in weaker sub-sectors beginning to see order improvements. Domestic demand is stabilizing while overseas demand is on the rise [13]. - High demand is noted in the injection molding machine, machine tool, air compressor, and industrial control sectors, while demand in cutting tools, forklifts, industrial robots, and reducers remains stable [13]. Data Review - Key macroeconomic indicators include: - February manufacturing PMI at 50.2%, with production and new order indices at 52.5% and 51.1%, respectively [21]. - January social financing increased by 7.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.0% [22]. - Fixed asset investment in January showed a cumulative year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with manufacturing and infrastructure both at 9.2% [22]. - Exports for January-February totaled 539.9 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [22]. Related Companies - Notable companies in the cutting tools sector include Huari Precision (688059), Oke Yi (688308), and Zhongtung High-tech (000657) [31]. - In the machine tool sector, key players include Haitan Precision (601882) and Nuwei CNC (688697) [31]. - Forklift manufacturers such as Anhui Heli (600761) and Hangcha Group (603298) are highlighted [32]. - Injection molding machine companies include Yizhiming (300415) and Haitian International (1882.HK) [33].