2025 年 8 月 11 日 行业研究 7 月电解铝产能利用率达 98.4%，续创 2012 年有统计数据以来新高水平 ——金属周期品高频数据周报（2025.8.4-8.10） 要点 流动性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2025 年 6 月为-3.7 个百分点。（1）BCI 中小 企业融资环境指数 2025 年 7 月值为 46.09，环比上月-6.16%；（2）M1 和 M2 增速差与上证指数存在较强的正向相关性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2025 年 6 月为-3.7 个百分点，环比+1.9 个百分点；（3）本周伦敦金现价格环比上 周+1.07%。 基建和地产链条：7 月下旬重点企业粗钢旬度日均产量创年内新低水平。 （1）本周价格变动：螺纹-0.60%、水泥价格指数-0.37%、橡胶-1.71%、焦 炭+3.79%、焦煤+3.55%、铁矿+1.31%；（2）本周全国高炉产能利用率、 水泥、沥青、全钢胎开工率环比分别-0.15pct、+10.00pct、-0.6pct、 -0.08pct；（3）7 月下旬重点企业粗钢旬度日均产量创年内新低水平。 地产竣工链条：钛白粉、平板玻璃毛利润处于低位水平。本周钛白粉、 ...

大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（8.4~8.8） 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜震荡整理，沪铜主力合约微涨0.11%，收报于78490元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价,美 国关税再起波澜，全球不稳定因素仍存。国内方面，消费进入淡季，目前来看下游消费意愿一般。产 业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚需交易为主。库存方面，铜库存LME库存155850吨，上周出现小 幅增加，上期所铜库存较上周增9390吨至81933吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2024供需紧平衡，2025过剩 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | | 中国年度供 ...

Group 1: PMI and Economic Indicators - July manufacturing PMI recorded at 49.3%, remaining below the expansion threshold for four consecutive months, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Construction PMI decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6%, still above the threshold, indicating a slowdown in expansion[3] - Service sector PMI fell by 0.1 percentage points to 50%, indicating stagnation[3] Group 2: Price Trends and Profit Margins - Prices of various commodities increased significantly in July, with coking coal up 32.2%, iron ore up 10.4%, glass up 16.0%, and soda ash up 8.6%[9] - The main raw material purchase price index rose above the threshold for the first time since March, reaching 51.5%, potentially supporting PPI in July[9] - The gap between the main raw material purchase price index and the factory price index widened from 2.2% to 3.2%, indicating potential pressure on corporate profits[9] Group 3: Demand and Inventory Trends - New orders, new export orders, and backlogged orders all declined in July, with new orders down 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%[10] - Raw material inventory index and finished goods inventory index fell to 47.7% and 47.4%, respectively, suggesting a slowdown in production replenishment and active destocking by companies[10] - The production index recorded at 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, reflecting a marginal slowdown in production activities[10] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - Ongoing external trade frictions and internal growth stabilization policies remain key focus areas, with upcoming negotiations on tariff agreements between China and the U.S.[25] - The political bureau meeting emphasized "orderly exit of backward production capacity," which may impact production progress in key industries[28] - Risks include potential unfavorable outcomes from U.S.-China tariff negotiations and slower-than-expected implementation of growth stabilization policies[29]

价格指数虽从69.7降至64.8，扩张幅度有所放缓，但仍显著高于疫情后平均水平，表明商品通胀压力依 然存在。值得注意的是，进口指数自4月份以来延续收缩，自有库存与客户库存也处于收缩区间。这显 示美国企业为规避关税而提前抢购和囤货的浪潮已经结束，下半年中国对美出口可能因此承压。 最新数据显示，美国经济正面临日益严峻的滞涨风险。2025年7月，美国服务业采购经理人 指数（PMI）扩张几乎停滞，制造业PMI更是跌至近一年新低，双双指向经济活动放缓与通 胀压力并存的复杂局面。在此背景下，美联储在第三季度将陷入保就业与降通胀的两难境 地。 服务业扩张几乎停滞，物价走高就业收缩 美国7月服务业PMI从6月的50.8降至50.1，大幅低于市场预期的51.5，显示服务业扩张步伐几乎停滞。 根据历史经验，服务业PMI超过48.6预示经济扩张，而本月数据对应的年化GDP增速仅为0.5%。商业活 动指数和新订单指数均明显放缓，反映出市场需求的显著走弱。 更令人担忧的是，服务业物价指数从6月的67.5升至7月的69.9，接近2022年末的水平，显示服务业通胀 压力在关税和移民政策影响下持续升高。与此同时，就业指数从47.2降至46. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the macro - aspect, copper prices declined from a high level this week, with COMEX copper plummeting 24% in a single week, fully closing the nearly $3000 price gap with LME copper in the past six months. Overseas non - farm data was worse than expected, and previous data was significantly revised down, increasing market expectations of US economic pressure. The Fed maintained the interest rate, and Powell's slightly hawkish stance responded to Trump's administration's pressure for rate cuts. Tariffs are gradually affecting demand. In China, the "anti - involution" movement - driven price increase has ended, but policy continuity will continue, and more implemented policies need attention. - In terms of industrial fundamentals, COMEX copper's pricing of a 50% tariff in its price is unsustainable. The US domestic and export copper trade attractiveness has decreased, affecting COMEX copper positions. After the 50% tariff on downstream primary copper products and exemption for refined copper, the $3000 price gap between US and international copper prices has rapidly converged. The flow of the US's 20 - year high copper inventory and the resulting demand shock will put pressure on international copper prices, and weak demand will be reflected in LME inventory accumulation [5][89]. Summary by Directory Macro - aspect - **PMI**: In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI of the US and Europe declined. The euro - zone's July manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, with Germany at 49.2% and France at 48.4%. The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 3.4 percentage points month - on - month. China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. New orders and new export orders both declined, and demand sub - indicators dropped faster [14]. - **Price Performance**: During the "anti - involution" movement in July, domestic commodities generally rose, but copper prices were subdued. If the 50% copper tariff is implemented, price pressure will increase. Domestic macro - policies are driving, but overseas expectations are still insufficient, with rate - cut expectations priced in for September. The Fed's independence has been repeatedly challenged, and the market is still tracking US economic data, with the latest manufacturing PMI significantly dropping below the boom - bust line [15]. Industrial Fundamentals - **Copper Concentrate Supply** - **Global Production**: In December 2024, global copper mine production was 2.096 million tons, up 4.96% year - on - year, and 22.835 million tons for the whole year, up 2.54%. In 2025 May, it was 2.006 million tons, up 6.14% year - on - year, and 9.524 million tons from January to May, up 3.27%. In May 2025, the global refined copper market had a surplus of 97,000 tons [23]. - **China's Imports**: In December 2024, China imported 2.522 million tons of copper concentrate, up 12.3% month - on - month and 1.7% year - on - year, and 28.114 million tons for the whole year, up 2.1%. In June 2025, imports continued to decline. In May, imports were about 2.3497 million tons, up only 1.77% year - on - year, and 14.7543 million tons from January to May, up 6.4% [27]. - **TC**: On August 1, the SMM imported copper concentrate index was - $42.09 per dry ton, up $0.54 from the previous period. The SMM nine - port copper concentrate inventory was 521,600 physical tons, down 39,300 physical tons from the previous period. The 2025 long - term copper concentrate processing fee benchmark was set at $21.25 per ton and 2.125 cents per pound [31]. - **Refined Copper Production**: In July 2025, China's electrolytic copper production increased by 39,400 tons month - on - month, up 3.47% and 14.21% year - on - year. From January to July, cumulative production increased by 820,800 tons, up 11.82%. In August, due to supply shortages, production is expected to decrease by 6,000 tons month - on - month, down 0.51%, but increase by 154,800 tons year - on - year, up 15.27% [37]. - **Refined Copper Imports and Exports**: In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper, up 6.49% year - on - year, and exported 457,500 tons, up 63.86%. In 2025 from January to June, imports were 1.6461 million tons, down 8.6%, and exports were 307,900 tons, up 1.97% [43]. - **Scrap Copper Supply**: In December 2024, China imported 217,500 tons of copper scrap, up 25% month - on - month and 9% year - on - year, and 2.25 million tons for the whole year, up 13.26%. In June 2025, imports were 183,200 physical tons, down 1.06% month - on - month but up 8.06% year - on - year. From January to June, imports were 1.1454 million tons, down 0.5% [48]. - **Scrap - to - Refined Copper Price Spread**: The weekly operating rate of recycled copper rods was 29.96%, up 0.67 percentage points from last week and 11.52 percentage points year - on - year. The average price spread between scrap and refined copper rods was $654 per ton this week, narrowing by $321. Due to weak terminal consumption, the inventory of recycled copper rod sample enterprises increased by 700 tons to 5,950 tons [51]. - **Consumption - end** - **Power and Grid Investment**: In 2024 from January to December, power investment was 1.168722 trillion yuan, up 12.14%, and grid investment was 608.258 billion yuan, up 15.26%. In 2025 from January to June, power investment was 363.5 billion yuan, up 5.9%, and grid investment was 291.1 billion yuan, up 14.6% [52]. - **Wire and Cable**: No specific data on wire and cable consumption was provided, only related charts. - **Air - conditioners**: In 2024 from January to December, air - conditioner production was 265.9844 million units, up 9.7%. In 2025 from January to June, production was 163.2961 million units, up 5.5%, with a decline in monthly production and a slowdown in year - on - year growth as the industry entered the off - season [57]. - **Automobiles**: In 2025 from January to June, automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million units, up 12.5% and 11.4% respectively. New energy vehicle production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million units, up 41.4% and 40.3% respectively, accounting for 44.3% of total vehicle sales [62]. - **Real Estate**: In 2024 from January to December, real - estate completion area was 737 million square meters, down 27.7%, and new construction area was down 23%. In June 2025, the completion area was 226 million square meters, down 14.3%, and new construction area was down 20%, with the "guaranteeing housing delivery" policy showing initial results [65]. Other Elements - **Inventory**: As of August 1, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 474,000 tons, an increase of 82,900 tons. LME copper inventory increased by 48,500 tons to 141,800 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 12,000 tons to 72,500 tons, and COMEX copper inventory increased by 46,500 tons to 259,700 tons. As of July 31, the domestic bonded - area inventory was 81,100 tons, an increase of 8,200 tons [71]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Position**: As of July 29, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 37,347 contracts, an increase of 3,657 contracts. Non - commercial long positions were 74,650 contracts, with only a 25 - contract increase, and non - commercial short positions were 37,303 contracts, a decrease of 3,632 contracts [73]. - **Premium and Discount**: As of August 1, LME copper was at a spot discount of - $49.25 per ton, returning to a large - discount pattern. The domestic spot maintained a premium, but the term structure flattened, indicating weak demand. The market was in a supply - and - demand double - weak pattern, with transactions mainly for rigid demand [83]. - **Basis**: As of August 1, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper average price and the continuous third - month contract was 310 yuan per ton [85]. Strategy - Domestic copper positions remain low, and after the sharp decline of COMEX copper, most positions have left. The multi - empty game at the current price level is not intense. More attention should be paid to LME copper variables. After taking profit on the near - month short call options, it is recommended to increase far - month put option positions at low prices. In the important time window of August - September, copper prices will face downward pressure, and attention should be paid to inventory and capital flow changes [6][90].

2025 年 8 月 6 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 Economic Perspectives - PMI 预警滞涨风险 美国 7 月服务业 PMI 扩张几乎停滞，商业活动和订单需求明显放缓，就业收缩幅 度扩大，物价大幅走高。制造业 PMI 跌至近一年新低，新订单指数小幅反弹但延 续收缩，就业收缩幅度创近 1 年新高，物价扩张幅度放缓但仍显著高于疫情后平 均水平，进口指数、自有库存和客户库存连续收缩，显示企业为规避关税而提前 抢购和囤货浪潮已经结束。数据公布后，市场对全年降息幅度预期下降 5 个基点 至 58 个基点。第 3 季度美联储将面临保就业和降通胀的两难，一方面就业市场加 速走弱，另一方面关税对通胀影响进一步显现，CPI 增速可能反弹。鲍威尔曾在 7 月记者会上表示即使新增就业降至 0，只要失业率保持平稳，仍会判定就业市场 保持稳健。这番表态可能会在 8 月底的 Jackson Hole 美联储年度经济政策研讨会 上被更新，届时鲍威尔可能给出降息指引。我们预计第 3 季度失业率可能仅小幅 上升，通胀有所反弹，美联储 9 月可能保持利率不变，10 月和 12 月可能各降 ...

近期呈现小幅上行态势，且仓单数量也有所增加，这清晰地反映出整体需求的放缓。尽管铅蓄电池行业即 将迎来旺季，但从目前库存数据来看，需求尚未有效拉动库存去化。若本周需求端依然无法发力，国内库 存或将继续累积，对铅价形成一定压制。综上所述，沪铅整体供应本周继续走平，需求逐步走弱，叠加反 内卷炒作，操作上逢低布局多单。 沪铅产业日报 2025-08-06 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16855 | 80 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 1975.5 | 12 | | | 09-10月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | 5 | 15 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 105235 | -7502 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -3127 | -1591 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 58656 | -351 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 63283 | 29 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 272975 | -1250 | ...

Pre-market futures are in the green across major indexes this morning, but experiencing a bit of choppiness. The Dow and S&P 500 are both up mere single-digits at this hour, off the early-morning highs, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq stays up +70 points presently. The small-cap Russell 2000, after a +2% up-day yesterday, remains in the green by +0.40%.Friday’s jobs-report-related selloff was for the most part remedied in Monday trading, and now there will be a lookout for a new catalyst higher. Lucky for us, Q ...

But first, breaking economic data just crossing the tape. Rick Santelli has that for us. Hi Rick. Hi Lesie.Indeed, we had S&P Global final reads for July. Now we're having ISM service sector PMIs. These are fresh first time look at July.Expecting 51 a halfish on the headline comes in light 50.1% sequentially lower and light expectations. the weakest since well just a couple months ago, May of this year. If you look at prices paid, it's going in the wrong direction.69.9% following 67.5%, well above expectati ...

July 31, 2025 04:23 AM GMT China Economics | Asia Pacific July PMI Affirms Softening Growth Key Takeaways July PMI echoes rising growth pressure: July mfg. PMI pointed to weaker demand, with softer new orders (down 0.8ppt to 49.4) and new export orders (down 0.6ppt to 47.1). Meanwhile, production softened (down 0.5ppt to 50.5) on weaker demand and upstream production controls linked to anti-involution. Non-manufacturing activities also weakened, led by construction (down 2.2ppt notably) partly due to advers ...