2026 年 2 月 8 日 总量研究 ——2026 年 2 月 8 日利率债观察 要点 7D OMO 降息的预期在升温 1、7D OMO 降息的预期在升温 近段时间，市场中对 7D OMO 降息的预期有所升温。这主要是不少投资者"判 断"2 月 4 日 3M 买断式逆回购的边际中标利率已降至 1.4%。鉴于当前 7D OMO 利率也为 1.4%，而 3M 和 7D 的央行资金利率之间通常会有一定的期限利差， 因此一些投资者认为本次 3M 买断式逆回购利率的下行将倒逼 7D OMO 降息。 实际上，买断式逆回购和 MLF 操作采用的是固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中 标的方式，边际中标利率由市场化形成，不具有政策利率的属性。人民银行加大 流动性投放力度，买断式逆回购和 MLF 的量给得足一些，那么自然其边际中标 利率就容易低一些。所以，买断式逆回购边际中标利率的下降与 7D OMO 降息 之间并无必然的联系，或至少说是没有直接的联系。 进一步讲，买断式逆回购和 MLF 操作数量的确定在主观上是为了调控 CD 等货 币市场利率，在客观上又会影响到工具本身的边际中标利率。因此，对于大多数 投资者而言，关注可以实时获 ...

每经AI快讯，周五(2月6日)欧市尾盘，法国10年期国债收益率本周累涨2.2个基点，意大利10年期国债收 益率累涨1.0个基点，西班牙10年期国债收益率累涨1.0个基点，希腊10年期国债收益率累涨0.6个基点。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds generally declined. The yields to maturity of 2 - 7Y bonds dropped by about 2 - 3bp, and the yields to maturity of 10Y and 30Y bonds decreased by about 2.9 and 3.6bp respectively to 1.80% and 2.22%. Treasury bond futures strengthened across the board, with the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL rising by 0.05%, 0.05%, 0.10%, and 0.58% respectively. In the short term, multiple positive factors may drive the bond market to strengthen slightly, but the market's expectations of pre - holiday reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts have cooled, and the downward space for yields is limited. It is expected that interest rates will continue to fluctuate within a range. [9][100] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The trading volumes of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all increased, while the open interests all decreased. The main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures rose by 0.05%, 0.05%, 0.10%, and 0.58% respectively. [13][30] 3.2 News Review and Analysis - **Key News**: The "14th Five - Year Plan"'s first central No. 1 document was released, focusing on rural revitalization. The central bank carried out 800 billion yuan of 3 - month repurchase operations and increased the roll - over of 10 billion yuan. There were important phone calls between China and the US leaders, emphasizing issues such as the Taiwan issue. In the US, the government's partial shutdown ended, but the employment market showed weakness, with a significant increase in the number of initial jobless claims and a sharp decline in job vacancies. Iran and the US held nuclear - issue negotiations. [33][34][35] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Price Difference Changes**: The yield spread between 10Y and 5Y and the spread between 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts widened; the yield spread between 10Y and 1Y, the spread between TF and TS main contracts, the 10 - year contract inter - period spread, and the 5 - year contract inter - period spread narrowed; the 30 - year contract inter - period spread, the 2 - year contract inter - period spread, and the spread between TF and TS main contracts fluctuated. [43][49][53] - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T - bond futures main contract decreased. [66] - **Interest Rate Changes**: Overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all declined, and the DR007 weighted average rate fell back to around 1.46% and fluctuated. The yields of treasury bond cash bonds generally declined, with the 10Y and 30Y yields to maturity falling by about 2.9 and 3.6bp respectively. The Sino - US 10 - year treasury bond yield spread narrowed, while the 30 - year treasury bond yield spread widened. [68][73] - **Central Bank Open - Market Operations**: This week, the central bank conducted 1.0055 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases in the open market, with 1.7615 trillion yuan due, and increased the roll - over of 10 billion yuan in repurchase, resulting in a net withdrawal of 65.6 billion yuan. [79] - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the bond issuance was 169.9266 billion yuan, the total repayment was 42.3261 billion yuan, and the net financing was 127.6005 billion yuan. [83] - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.9590, with a cumulative increase of 88 basis points this week. The spread between the RMB offshore and on - shore exchange rates narrowed. The yield of the 10 - year US treasury bond declined, and the VIX index rose significantly. The 10 - year treasury bond yield declined, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly. [89][92][97] 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In January, the prosperity levels of China's manufacturing and service industries both declined, and the manufacturing PMI returned to the contraction range, but the industrial structure continued to improve. The profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased year - on - year in December, and the annual profits achieved positive growth. The unexpected decline in the January PMI data indicates that the current fundamentals are still in a weak recovery state, and the endogenous driving force of the economy needs to be further boosted. [100] - **Overseas Situation**: The US employment market remains weak, with the number of job vacancies in December dropping to the lowest level since 2020 and the number of layoffs increasing slightly. The market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts have cooled. [100] - **Market Outlook**: The central bank restarted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation to maintain a loose liquidity environment. The market risk appetite has declined significantly, and some funds have flowed into the bond market. In the short term, multiple positive factors may drive the bond market to strengthen slightly, but the downward space for yields is limited, and it is expected that interest rates will continue to fluctuate within a range. [100]

每日经济新闻 国债ETF（511010）跟踪的是5年国债指数（000140），以反映中国市场中长期国债的整体表现。基本 面较弱的状态下，国债收益率或仍有一定的下行空间，建议投资者关注十年国债ETF（511260）、国债 ETF（511010）。 中原证券指出，债市方面，10年期与30年期国债收益率预计区间震荡，需等待降准或降息等实质性宽松 政策落地。在利率走势方面，2026年1月国债期货市场迎来小幅反弹，十年期主力合约上涨0.45%，超 长端的30年期国债期货涨幅略高，达0.48%。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 ...

Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.38% to 112.170, the 10-year main contract up by 0.08% to 108.320, the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.07% to 105.910, and the 2-year main contract gaining 0.04% to 102.434 [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds generally declined, with the 10-year policy bank bond "25国开15" yield down by 1.19 basis points to 1.9470%, the 10-year government bond "25附息国债16" yield down by 0.40 basis points to 1.8090%, and the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债06" yield down by 0.95 basis points to 2.2415% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 1,185 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the bid and winning amount [2] - Additionally, a 3,000 billion yuan 14-day reverse repurchase operation was conducted using a fixed quantity and multi-price bidding method [2] - On that day, 3,540 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 645 billion yuan [2] - The interbank market remains stable but slightly loose, with the weighted average rate of DR001 slightly rising and staying around 1.32% [2] - The central bank's net injection scale in January has already exceeded that of a rate cut, with expectations for a buyout-style reverse repurchase operation next week [2] Operational Suggestions - The central bank's restart of the 14-day reverse repurchase has boosted market sentiment, leading to a general decline in yields, with the 10-year and 30-year government bonds approaching 1.8% and 2.24% respectively [3] - The 10-year bond may face resistance around the 1.8% level, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through this level, as well as the issuance situation of the 30-year bond [3] - A single strategy is currently advised to remain on the sidelines, while a curve strategy should focus on flattening in the short term [3] - Given the upcoming Spring Festival, investors are advised to arrange for position transfers in advance to prevent liquidity shortages after the holiday [3]

每经AI快讯，2月6日，日本30年期国债收益率下行6个基点至3.505%。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周四（2月5日）欧市尾盘，德国10年期国债收益率跌1.7个基点，报2.843%；两年期德债 收益率大致持平，报2.095%；30年期德债收益率跌2.3个基点，报3.501%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the movements in European bond yields, specifically noting declines in various countries' long-term bond yields [1] Group 2 - The French 10-year government bond yield decreased by 0.1 basis points, while the 2-year yield remained stable, and the 30-year yield fell by 0.8 basis points [1] - Italy's 10-year government bond yield also saw a decline of 0.1 basis points [1] - Spain's 10-year government bond yield dropped by 0.8 basis points, and Greece's 10-year yield decreased by 0.7 basis points [1]

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury bonds closed higher, with short and mid-term bonds leading the gains, driven by weaker-than-expected labor market indicators and supportive factors from the UK central bank's dovish policy statement and a sell-off in the US stock market [1][3]. Labor Market Indicators - Three labor market indicators released in the morning session were weaker than expected, including Challenger layoffs, weekly initial jobless claims, and JOLTS job openings, which contributed to the rise in Treasury bonds [1][3]. UK Central Bank Influence - The UK central bank maintained its interest rates, but the voting result was close at 5 to 4, indicating a potential for further rate cuts, which led to a steepening of the UK bond yield curve and a dovish repricing in interest rate swaps [5]. Treasury Yield Movements - The 2 to 5-year Treasury yields fell by at least 8 basis points, while the 10-year Treasury yield approached 4.21%, declining by over 7 basis points on the day [4][5]. - The implied rate cut by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year expanded to approximately 55 basis points, up from 49 basis points at the previous close [5]. Swap Spread Trends - Long-end swap spreads continued to narrow, with indications that positions for widening spreads are still being deleveraged, and the 30-year spread reached its lowest level since mid-December [6]. Current Yield Rates - As of 3:11 PM Eastern Time, the yield rates were as follows: 2-year at 3.4833%, 5-year at 3.7516%, 10-year at 4.2098%, and 30-year at 4.8633%, with the spread between 5 and 30-year yields at 110.99 basis points and between 2 and 10-year yields at 72.45 basis points [2][6].

Group 1 - The 20-year Japanese government bond yield decreased by 3.0 basis points to 3.150% on February 5 [1]