Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that lithium carbonate futures are experiencing a downward trend, with a significant bearish sentiment in the market. As of May 20, the main contract for lithium carbonate has dropped to 60,860 yuan/ton [2] - The decline in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to increased cost optimization from industry chain integration and a continuous decrease in raw material prices, leading to weakened cost support for lithium carbonate [2] - Despite favorable macro policies, the lack of substantial demand support has prevented lithium carbonate prices from rebounding [2] Group 2 - Current downstream demand for lithium carbonate remains stable, with April demand recorded at 89,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2,625 tons and a year-on-year growth of 33.9%. May demand is expected to be 88,600 tons [3] - High inventory levels are exerting pressure on the market, with total inventory increasing to 131,900 tons as of May 15, including significant accumulation in upstream smelting plants [3] - The supply side remains relaxed, with upstream production recovering and overseas mineral arrivals increasing, maintaining significant supply pressure despite some production cuts in April and May [2][3] Group 3 - The market outlook for lithium carbonate remains weak, with supply-demand imbalances highlighted. Although supply pressure is expected to ease slightly in May, the downward trend in raw material costs is reducing support for prices [4] - The futures price is anticipated to test the 60,000 yuan/ton level, and if it breaks below this threshold, it may trigger accelerated declines in the market [4] - Overall, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures is expected to trade weakly within the range of 58,000 to 63,000 yuan/ton [4]

2025 年 5 月 20 日 商 品 研 究 资料来源：国泰君安期货、同花顺、Mysteel、SMM、Fastmarkets 【宏观及行业新闻】 | | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | | | 2507合约（收盘价） | 61,180 | -620 | -2,860 | -4,780 | -9,660 | -17,740 | | | | 2507合约（成交量） | 224,064 | -81,532 | -89,870 | 109,526 | 182,140 | 217,886 | ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View - Due to the weak fundamentals of lithium carbonate remaining unimproved, with spot - end transactions mainly between traders and downstream enterprises and lithium salt manufacturers mainly holding prices, in the short term, the lithium carbonate futures price shows a rebound after a long - term decline. However, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged, the visible inventory continues to accumulate, the downstream purchasing willingness has not increased, the ore - end price continues to decline, and the lithium carbonate price remains weak [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 64,700 yuan, up 100 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 63,050 yuan, up 100 yuan [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - Carbonate lithium 2505 closed at 64,780 yuan, up 2.5%; carbonate lithium 2506 at 65,140 yuan, up 2.65%; carbonate lithium 2507 at 65,200 yuan, up 3%; carbonate lithium 2508 at 66,120 yuan, up 2.64%; carbonate lithium 2509 at 66,280 yuan, up 2.57% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 713 yuan, down 1 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 760 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1360 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 6300 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 7340 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - Lithium iron phosphate (power type) average price is 31,445 yuan, up 50 yuan; ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 146,070 yuan, down 10 yuan; ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 116,375 yuan, up 20 yuan; ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 123,325 yuan, down 10 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1650 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 500 yuan, down 1880 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 60 yuan, down 80 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 980 yuan, up 180 yuan [2] Inventory - Total inventory (weekly, tons) is 131,569 tons, down 464 tons; smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 54,852 tons, up 3819 tons; downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 42,156 tons, down 3013 tons; other inventory (weekly, tons) is 34,561 tons, down 1270 tons; registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 36,716 tons, up 272 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 68,000 yuan, and the profit is - 4192 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally and the profit are not clearly presented in a complete form [3] Company News - On May 12, CATL disclosed its H - share prospectus, H - share issue price cap, H - share Hong Kong public offering, etc., and is expected to be listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 20. The issue price range cap of CATL's H - share IPO is HK$263 per share, and a total of 118 million shares are planned to be issued. With the full exercise of relevant rights, the estimated total fundraising is US$4 - 5 billion (about RMB 28.95 - 36.19 billion) [3]

二 〇 二 四 年 度 2025 年 5 月 11 日 碳酸锂：终端需求回落，上游成本快速塌陷， 偏弱震荡 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi020696@gtjas.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：单边回落，在 6.29 万元/吨附近出现空头减仓，基差走强 碳酸锂 LC2507 合约回落，期间减仓企稳，尔后加仓下跌。2507 合约收于 63020 元/吨，周环比下跌 3240 元/吨，2509 合约收于 64300 元/吨，周环比下跌 3360 元/吨，现货周环比下跌 3000 元/吨为 65250 元/吨。SMM 期现基差（2505 合约）走强 240 元/吨至 2230 元/吨，富宝贸易商升贴水报价+360 元 /吨，周环比走强 60 元/吨。2507-2509 合约价差-1280 元/吨，环比+120 元/吨。 供需基本面：终端需求回落，上游成本快速塌陷 供应：本周锂矿价格延续下跌趋势，并且下跌速度进一步加大，国内 SMM 矿价报 725 美元/吨， fastmarkets 最新成交价低至 680 美元/吨，矿端价格回落带动锂价回落。锂矿价格虽持续下跌，但澳洲 矿山企业 ...

4月26日，作为锂电产业的核心原材料，碳酸锂期货主力合约继周初跌破7万元大关后，进一步跌至 6.784万元(吨价，下同)。数据显示，今年以来碳酸锂期货跌幅达到14%。 上海钢联新能源事业部锂业分析师郑晓强表示，目前整体锂矿供应持续放量，且海内外盐湖提锂产能也 在同步扩张，预计碳酸锂价格后续还会震荡走低。 价格再创新低 2020年，全球新能源浪潮席卷而来，碳酸锂价格从4万元疯狂涨至60万元。2023年7月21日，碳酸锂期货 在广期所上市，当时上市开盘价高达21.8万元。然而，仅过两年时间，碳酸锂期货价格就从20万元跌至 目前不足7万元，跌幅高达68%。 忧虑，进一步抑制了需求。据Mysteel不完全统计，截至4月中旬，港口和国内锂矿石库存为6.85万吨， 环比上涨0.15万吨。 4月以来，美国政府的对等关税政策冲击锂电市场。对于我国锂电产业而言，今年的多轮关税新政，加 上美国已生效的对中国电池产品征收3.4%的基础关税，以及301条款25%的关税，使中国动力电池与储 能电池短期内对美出口综合税率从132.4%/114.9%飙升至153.4%/135.9%。 美国是中国锂电池出口的最大市场，受关税政策及贸易打压影 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate has been on a downward trend. In May, demand remains stable as the slight increase in power demand is offset by the decline in energy storage demand. Supply is expected to increase slightly as some smelters resume production, leading to an expansion of the surplus and a potential new high in inventory. The price is likely to test the support level of 65,000 yuan, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [4][77]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review and Outlook - **Price Trend**: After reaching a high of 81,000 yuan before the Spring Festival, the price of lithium carbonate has dropped by 15%, with the lowest point below 68,000 yuan. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival in April, it gapped down and then fluctuated weakly, reaching a minimum of 67,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Demand Side**: Sino - US tariffs have affected the US new - energy vehicle market and supply chain, potentially damaging the orders of ternary cathode factories with high export ratios in China. The procurement of lithium carbonate for energy storage due to the "531" rush has ended in March, and energy storage orders are weakening. In April, cathode factories' production increased slightly month - on - month, but their purchasing was restrained [3]. - **Supply Side**: In April, production first increased and then decreased. Some smelters conducted annual maintenance, and some reduced production due to a lack of (low - price) ores or losses. The price of Australian ores has fallen below $800/ton, and the market expects it to drop to $750/ton. Although domestic supply in April may be lower than the previous production plan, it still increased by thousands of tons compared to March [3]. - **Inventory and Market Conditions**: SMM social inventory increased slightly despite production cuts, indicating weak demand. The price volatility has decreased, reducing the arbitrage opportunities. The spot basis has strengthened, and holders are more inclined to sell spot goods [4]. - **Outlook for May**: Demand remains stable as the slight increase in power demand is offset by the decline in energy storage demand. Supply will increase as some smelters resume production, and the surplus will expand, with inventory expected to first decrease and then increase, reaching a new high [4]. 2. Market Tracking - **Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread Changes**: After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival in April, the price gapped down and fluctuated weakly. The volatility has decreased, reducing the arbitrage opportunities for cross - period and spot - futures traders. The spot basis has strengthened, and holders are less willing to register warehouse receipts [10]. - **Upstream Lithium Ore Price and Import Profit and Loss Trends**: The price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased by $20/ton (3.2%), and the price of mica ore decreased by 180 yuan/ton (10.2%). Smelter production cuts have forced upstream mines to lower prices, leading to a spiral decline in lithium salt and lithium ore prices [19]. - **Downstream Cathode Material Price Trends**: Tariffs have little impact on China's new - energy vehicle exports but affect the export of energy storage systems and lithium batteries. Some ternary cathode material enterprises in China have suspended raw material procurement to deal with potential risks [22]. 3. Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **April: Weak Seasonal Features with Slight Growth** - **New - Energy Vehicles**: From April 1 - 20, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China reached 478,000, a 20% year - on - year increase but an 11% month - on - month decrease. The global new - energy vehicle market in 2025 (January - February) showed a slowdown in growth in Europe and the US. China's new - energy vehicle exports increased significantly from January - March, and the news of the EU potentially replacing tariffs with a minimum price may boost exports to Europe [34][35]. - **Energy Storage**: The "531" rush for energy storage procurement has ended, and the demand for lithium carbonate has weakened. After the Sino - US tariff increase in April, some enterprises suspended exports and renegotiated prices. The market has different views on future demand [45]. - **Cathode Factories**: The production of power and energy storage cells in China from January - March increased significantly year - on - year. In May, the production of ternary cathode materials is expected to increase by about 1,000 tons, while the demand for lithium iron phosphate may decline as the increase in power demand is offset by the decrease in energy storage demand [50][51]. - **May: Slight Increase in Lithium Carbonate Supply** - **Lithium Ore Price and Cost**: Third - party institutions predict that the ore price will fall to below $750/ton. The cost of large integrated mines is decreasing, and African mines are the most profitable source of outsourced ores. The logistics cost of African mines is expected to decline [58]. - **Domestic Smelters**: In April, at least 6 smelters planned or carried out maintenance and production cuts, affecting a production volume of over 5,000 tons. In May, more than half of the enterprises undergoing annual maintenance will resume production, and some small and medium - sized enterprises are waiting for the ore price to fall. The import volume of lithium carbonate in May is expected to increase, and the total domestic supply will increase slightly [63][64]. - **Excess Re - Expands, Price Fluctuates Weakly**: In April, the weekly inventory increased, indicating weak demand. As of April 24, the SMM social inventory of lithium carbonate was 131,800 tons, and it is expected to reach a new high in May. The supply pressure will become more apparent from May, and the price of the main contract 2507 may test the support level of 65,000 yuan. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [77].