Core Viewpoint - The stock of Giant Bio (02367) has dropped over 4%, currently trading at 58.9 HKD with a transaction volume of 272 million HKD, following allegations regarding the quality of its collagen products [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Huaxi Bio has officially responded to the controversy surrounding Dr. Hao Yu, revealing that it has conducted tests on related products in collaboration with multiple third-party testing agencies, which indicated that the recombinant collagen content did not meet standards [1] - Huaxi Bio has submitted dozens of test reports to the National Medical Products Administration, highlighting the seriousness of the findings [1] - In May, beauty blogger Dr. Hao Yu accused Giant Bio's product "Collagen Stick" of having a recombinant collagen content of only 0.0177%, significantly below the 0.1% non-trace addition standard, and lacking the core amino acid glycine [1] Group 2: Company Responses - Giant Bio quickly denied the allegations, asserting that its products comply with regulations and that internal testing results exceed the 0.1% standard [1] - On June 1, Huaxi Bio publicly supported Dr. Hao Yu, indicating a division in the industry regarding the quality of Giant Bio's products [1] - Following a series of exchanges, on June 23, Giant Bio acknowledged that its existing quality standards, testing methods, and labeling have shown limitations in certain aspects [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the beauty and personal care industry, highlighting the resilience of domestic brands and the impact of new consumption trends [2]. Core Insights - The beauty and personal care sector experienced a robust recovery in H1 2025, with a retail sales growth of 2.9%, reversing the previous decline due to favorable consumption policies and improved income expectations [5][6]. - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with top local brands now competing closely with international counterparts, indicating a significant shift in consumer preferences [10][11]. - The report categorizes companies into three groups based on performance: those with strong brand matrices benefiting from multi-brand strategies, those capitalizing on consumer trends like domestic brands and collagen products, and those showing signs of strategic improvement [20][23]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The beauty market is projected to grow steadily, with a forecasted retail sales decline of 1.1% in 2024, followed by a recovery in H2 2025 [5][6]. - The domestic market share is expected to increase, with local brands achieving significant breakthroughs in both skincare and makeup segments [10][11]. Company Performance - **Cosmetics Sector**: - Major companies like Up Beauty and Proya reported revenue growth of 17.3% and 7.2% respectively in H1 2025, with net profits increasing by 30.6% and 13.8% [20][21]. - Other notable performers include Marubi and Water Sheep, with revenue growth of 30.8% and 9.0% respectively [21][22]. - **Personal Care Sector**: - Companies like Ruibin and Zhenjia showed remarkable growth, with Ruibin's revenue increasing by 67.6% and Zhenjia's by 157.11% in H1 2025 [5][20]. - **Medical Aesthetics Sector**: - Companies like Aimeike and Langzi reported mixed results, with Aimeike's revenue declining by 21.6% while Langzi's net profit surged by 64.1% [20][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies with strong brand matrices and low PE multiples, such as Up Beauty and Proya, as well as those benefiting from the Douyin traffic boost like Marubi and Water Sheep [20][24]. - It also suggests focusing on high-value segments and innovative products from brands like Ruibin and Furuida, and highlights opportunities in the maternal and infant sector with companies like Shengbeila and Haiziwang [20][24].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company Water Sheep Co., Ltd. [14] Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has underperformed the market, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index declining by 2.5% from September 12 to September 19, 2025 [3][4] - The upcoming Double 11 shopping festival is expected to drive significant growth for domestic brands, with recommendations to focus on strong alpha stocks [9][10] - Water Sheep Co., Ltd. is highlighted for its dual business model of proprietary and CP brands, with stable revenue projections of 4-5 billion yuan from 2021 to 2024 and an expected gross margin of 63.01% in 2024 [10][11] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has shown weaker performance compared to the market, with specific indices declining [3][4] - The Shenwan Cosmetics Index fell by 2.6%, while the Shenwan Personal Care Index decreased by 0.6% [4][6] Upcoming Events - The Double 11 shopping festival preparations are in full swing, with domestic brands like Up Beauty and Proya launching new products to capture market share [9] - Key influencers are negotiating promotional strategies to enhance sales during the festival [9] Company Focus: Water Sheep Co., Ltd. - Water Sheep Co., Ltd. is positioned as a leading tech-driven beauty company with a stable revenue forecast and improving profit margins [10][11] - The company has a well-structured brand matrix and is expanding its high-end product lines, with significant growth in its proprietary brands [11][12] - Expected net profits for Water Sheep Co., Ltd. are projected to be 258 million, 331 million, and 398 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating substantial growth [14] Market Trends - The Chinese beauty market is witnessing a shift towards domestic brands, with significant market share gains for local players [27] - The overall retail sales of cosmetics showed a growth of 5.1% in August 2025, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [18][21] International Recognition - Chinese beauty brands performed notably at the IFSCC conference, showcasing their advancements in cosmetic science and securing significant awards [22][24]

Group 1 - The core technology of the company is "yeast-based low-immunity recombinant collagen production" [1] - The company has been deeply engaged in the biotechnology field for 25 years, with 186 patents and patent applications [3] - The collaboration with Northwest University on "yeast-based low-immunity recombinant collagen and its applications" won the "2024 China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation Technology Invention Award First Prize" and was recognized as "internationally leading" by experts [3] Group 2 - The company is perceived not only as a cosmetics manufacturer but also as a high-tech enterprise with global market potential [3] - International journalists expressed strong interest in the company's production processes and products, highlighting the blend of science, beauty, and health [5] - The company showcased popular skincare products, leading to interest in further reporting and potential collaborations from foreign journalists [5] Group 3 - The "Walk Through China: Meet Shaanxi" event is organized by various Chinese associations and aims to showcase the unique charm and strong development of Shaanxi [7]

Summary of Jinbo Biological Conference Call Company Overview - Jinbo Biological primarily focuses on medical beauty products, with injectable collagen being the main revenue contributor. The Weimi Beauty 4mg product accounts for nearly 80% of sales, while future growth relies on high-end products like Kenaite and 10mg variants [2][4]. Key Financial Insights - Jinbo Biological reported a revenue of 860 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 42%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 390 million yuan, up approximately 27%. However, the second quarter saw a slowdown in growth, with a net profit growth rate of 7.4% and a 2.3 percentage point impact from asset impairment losses, leading to an overall net profit decline of about 9.7% [3]. Product Structure and Market Strategy - The company’s product structure is heavily weighted towards medical beauty, particularly injectable collagen. The 4mg Weimi Beauty product has a high penetration rate and transparent pricing, ranging from several hundred yuan at the factory level to around 2000 yuan at retail. Jinbo plans to increase the proportion of high-end products like 8mg, 10mg, and 12mg to drive revenue growth [4][6]. Strategic Planning in Medical Aesthetics - Jinbo Biological aims to deepen OEM collaborations with leading medical beauty institutions to enhance customer flow and loyalty. These institutions typically use the 4mg product for customer acquisition but may partner with other manufacturers for lower-margin products [5][6]. Future Development Directions - In the next 1-2 years, existing products will remain the main growth drivers. The company has launched two new support-type products this year, with the gel product expected to reach a scale of 1 billion yuan within three years, targeting the high-end market. The factory price is several thousand yuan, with retail prices potentially exceeding 10,000 yuan [7]. Competitive Landscape - Jinbo Biological is currently the only manufacturer of recombinant collagen but faces potential new entrants by the end of this year or early next year. However, these new players will require time for team building and market promotion, providing Jinbo with a strategic opportunity. The competition in the animal collagen market is limited, with established manufacturers like Changchun Botai and Taiwan Shuangmei having unclear expansion plans [8]. Profit Forecast - The forecast for Jinbo Biological's net profit attributable to shareholders is approximately 1 billion yuan in 2025, 1.42 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.75 billion yuan in 2027. The price-to-earnings ratio is expected to narrow to below 30 times in 2026 and further to below 25 times in 2027. There is optimism regarding the continuation of improvement trends in the third and fourth quarters [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.79 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decline of 7.05%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 110 million yuan, down 15.2% year-on-year [2][4] - In Q2 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 910 million yuan, a decrease of 11.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 57.25 million yuan, down 16.1% year-on-year [2][4] - The cosmetics business, particularly the Yilian brand, showed steady growth, while the Aier Doctor brand is undergoing a phase of adjustment [10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the cosmetics, pharmaceutical, and raw materials segments generated revenues of 1.09 billion, 210 million, and 180 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -7.7%, -13.9%, and +4.2% [10] - The Yilian brand achieved a revenue of 550 million yuan, a growth of 23.8% year-on-year, while the Aier Doctor brand saw a revenue decline of 30% to 450 million yuan [10] - The overall gross profit margin slightly improved, with a net profit margin of 6%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [10] Business Segments - The Yilian brand's growth was supported by the announcement of a global spokesperson, leading to a 43% increase in the spray product line [10] - The Aier Doctor brand is in a brand adjustment phase, with new product launches expected to drive future growth [10] - The raw materials business showed stability, with sales of hyaluronic acid reaching 120 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.4% [10] Future Outlook - The company is expected to focus on its main brands, with the Yilian brand showing strong momentum and the Aier Doctor brand undergoing necessary adjustments [10] - The company anticipates improvements in profitability due to optimized channel structures and enhanced gross margins in the raw materials segment [10] - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 0.24, 0.29, and 0.34 yuan per share respectively [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the cosmetics industry [3] Core Insights - The cosmetics industry is experiencing stable growth with a slight improvement in growth rates, while profitability continues to show differentiation among companies [11][16] - The average revenue growth rate for the cosmetics industry in Q1 and Q2 of 2025 was -8.4% and -2.1%, respectively, indicating a slight improvement in the second quarter [16] - Online sales channels, particularly Tmall and Douyin, have shown a year-on-year growth of 13.1% in the first half of 2025, reflecting a recovery in consumer demand [11] Summary by Sections Cosmetics: Stable Growth and Business Adjustments - The cosmetics industry showed a year-on-year growth of 3.1% and 2.6% in Q1 and Q2 of 2025, respectively, with a significant improvement compared to the -1.1% growth in 2024 [11] - The industry is characterized by a slight improvement in growth rates, with the overall growth falling into a stable range [11] Revenue: Differentiation Among Brands - The average revenue growth for the brand segment was 0.4% and 6.5% in Q1 and Q2 of 2025, respectively, indicating stronger resilience compared to upstream and downstream segments [16] - Mid-sized brands like Maogeping and Shangmei have achieved good growth amidst a stable industry backdrop, while leading companies like Proya continue to grow steadily [16] Gross Margin Trends - The average gross margin for the brand segment increased by 1.6 percentage points in the first half of 2025, driven by improved business structures and effective price control by certain brands [21] - Specific brands like Water Sheep and Beitaini have seen significant improvements in gross margins due to product upgrades and price management strategies [21] Product Innovation: Focus on Core Series and Efficacy Expansion - Brands are focusing on upgrading core product lines and expanding efficacy categories, particularly in sunscreen and whitening, with increased competition expected [25] - New product launches include Proya's whitening series and Beitaini's anti-aging products, indicating a trend towards enhancing product offerings [25] Sales Expenses: Rising Industry Rates - The average sales expense ratio for brands in the first half of 2025 was 44.7%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7 percentage points, influenced by rising competition and platform costs [31] - The narrowing of gross sales margins indicates ongoing pressure on profitability across the industry [31]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the regulatory actions taken against the "Big Mouth Doctor" account for spreading misleading information about companies, particularly targeting Juzi Biological, which faced significant market backlash due to allegations of product falsification [3][4][6]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Actions - The National Internet Information Office announced the second batch of typical cases in the "Clear and Optimized Business Network Environment" campaign, which included the banning of the "Big Mouth Doctor" account for distorting company information and disrupting market order [3][6]. Incident Overview - In May, the "Big Mouth Doctor" account published a report alleging that Juzi Biological's product, Kefu Mei, was fraudulent, claiming it could not detect collagen [4][5]. - Juzi Biological responded with multiple statements asserting the accuracy of their products and the inaccuracy of the claims made by the "Big Mouth Doctor" [5][6]. Market Impact - The controversy led to a significant drop in Juzi Biological's stock price, with a reported decline of 10% over two days [6]. - The incident occurred during the "618" shopping festival, raising concerns about potential consumer backlash and its impact on sales [9]. Company Performance - Despite the controversy, Juzi Biological's financial performance remained strong, with a revenue increase from 2.375 billion to 5.539 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, and net profit rising from 1 billion to 2.062 billion yuan [8]. - The company reported a revenue of 3.113 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%, with Kefu Mei contributing significantly to this growth [9]. Industry Context - The collagen market in China is projected to grow rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate of 44.93%, reaching an estimated market size of 219.38 billion yuan by 2030 [10]. - Competitors in the beauty industry, such as Marubi and L'Oreal, are also increasing their investments in this segment, indicating a competitive landscape [10].

Group 1 - The National Cyberspace Administration of China announced the second batch of typical cases in the "Clear and Optimized Business Network Environment" campaign, addressing multiple accounts involved in coercing companies, distorting information, and malicious defamation [1] - The account "Big Mouth Doctor" was identified as having a commercial interest relationship with a beauty product company and was found to have published misleading evaluation information affecting market competition [1] - The incident involving "Big Mouth Doctor" and the accusations against Juzhi Biotechnology's product led to significant market discussions and scrutiny [2][3] Group 2 - Juzhi Biotechnology's product "Kefumei" faced allegations of false advertising, which the company refuted by stating that all products passed regulatory checks and were verified through a three-step quality control process [2][3] - Following the controversy, Juzhi Biotechnology's stock price experienced a decline of 10% over two days, indicating the impact of the trust crisis on the company's market performance [3] - The company's revenue increased significantly from 2.375 billion yuan in 2021 to 5.539 billion yuan in 2024, with net profit rising from 1 billion yuan to 2.062 billion yuan during the same period [4] Group 3 - Juzhi Biotechnology's major product, "Kefumei," accounted for 79% and 82% of total revenue in 2023 and 2024, respectively, highlighting its importance to the company's financial health [4] - The company reported a revenue of 3.113 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%, with net profit rising by 20.2% to 1.182 billion yuan [5] - In contrast, Huaxi Biotechnology, which previously supported "Big Mouth Doctor," reported its worst interim results since listing, with a revenue decline of 19.57% [5] Group 4 - The collagen protein market in China is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 44.93%, reaching a market size of 219.38 billion yuan by 2030, indicating strong future growth potential [6] - The market for repair-focused cosmetics is expected to reach approximately 180 billion yuan in 2024, positioning it among the top three efficacy segments in the industry [6]

Company Overview - The company has organized a post-performance NDR communication, indicating that short-term event impacts are gradually dissipating, with self-broadcasting continuing to show healthy and strong growth. Brand acquisition and influencer marketing are gradually recovering, suggesting that the upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival may further restore brand momentum [1][2] - The company is recognized as a leader in collagen products, with a strong outlook for future growth, and is advised to strategically position itself for the recovery opportunities during the Double Eleven season [1] Short-term Performance - In the first half of the year, the company optimized its self-broadcasting matrix and strengthened product selection strategies, maintaining good growth despite short-term event impacts. Monitoring data shows that the brand "可复美" achieved over 50% GMV growth in self-broadcasting and product card sales on Douyin during July and August, with repurchase rates remaining high, indicating limited impact on loyal customers [1] - Influencer marketing faced significant short-term impacts but is gradually recovering, with "可复美" achieving approximately 23% market share in influencer marketing during the industry off-peak period of July and August, showing a rebound from the event impact phase [1][2] Product Development - The company has successfully expanded its brand audience and product efficacy through single product cultivation since its listing. The foundational R&D and enhanced market insights have led to continuous improvement in the product development chain. The "可复美" brand has established multiple product lines, including collagen repair series and focus series, with the collagen repair series performing well in the first half of the year [2] - The core products of the "可丽金" brand also showed strong online growth, indicating a solidified market presence. The company's ability to cultivate single products is expected to continue supporting long-term brand growth [2] Upcoming Opportunities - As the Double Eleven shopping season approaches, the recovery of influencer marketing is expected to drive brand momentum back on track. The company maintains communication with top influencers, which has yielded positive results. Increased influencer marketing frequency is anticipated to boost marketing efforts and accelerate brand acquisition [2] - The company has made positive progress in obtaining certifications for three types of medical devices since the beginning of the year, which is expected to contribute to incremental growth in the future [2] Financial Forecast - The company maintains a profit forecast of 2.5 billion to 3.2 billion CNY for 2025-2026, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E ratio of 21x for 2025 and 17x for 2026. The company maintains an outperform rating and a target price of 82 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 50% [2]