Group 1 - The market sentiment is optimistic, leading to a decline in traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver, with gold trading around $3351.79 per ounce and silver at $37.78 per ounce [1][2] - The U.S. labor market data shows an increase in unemployment claims, indicating a weakening labor market, which typically raises demand for safe-haven assets like gold [2][3] - The expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy are crucial for gold prices, with a high probability of a rate cut in September, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [3] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold is facing resistance at the $3400 level, while silver has seen a pullback after five consecutive days of gains, needing to break above $38.00 to continue its upward trend [4] - The geopolitical landscape remains complex, with ongoing regional conflicts increasing uncertainty in the global economy, which may drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for both gold and silver suggests potential for short-term rebounds, with gold showing signs of trying to gather positive momentum despite recent pressures [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's economic growth in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, laying a solid foundation for achieving annual targets [1][2] - The GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, driven primarily by final consumption expenditure, which contributed 52% to economic growth [2] - The supply side saw industrial production and the demand side experienced a rebound in consumption, while exports showed resilience despite external uncertainties [2] Group 2 - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the main factors driving major asset performance are expected to shift from external to internal [3] - Investment opportunities in the capital market include high-growth sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, AI, military industry, new consumption driven by emotional value demand, and high dividend yield sectors [3] - The bond market may experience fluctuations in the short term due to policy observation, but opportunities may arise in the fourth quarter with potential interest rate cuts by the central bank [3]

在积极政策信号的催动下，人民币再度迎来强势行情。 3月16日，在岸人民币对美元汇率强势升破6.38、6.37、6.36、6.35四道关口，一度走强至6.3421， 日内涨幅最高逾370点，实现去年10月19日以来最大单日涨幅。 同一时间，离岸人民币对美元汇率也节节走高，日内接连收复6.38、6.37两道关口，最高触及 6.3538。 "本周市场焦点无疑是美联储3月议息会议。在美国2月通胀达到40年新高的压力下，不排除美联储 超预期加息50个基点的可能性。"中金研究院研究员李刘阳说。 整体来看，人民币对美元汇率总体仍将保持双向波动态势。"在国际金融市场大幅动荡的情况下， 人民币汇率保持稳定。"央行近日发文称，2018年以来，人民币汇率经受住了重大外部冲击，弹性明显 增强，发挥了调节宏观经济和国际收支自动稳定器作用，保持了在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 数据显示，2018年至2021年，我国外汇市场973个交易日中，人民币对美元汇率中间价有485个交易 日升值，有487个交易日贬值，有1个交易日持平，充分体现了双向浮动的特征。 中信期货研究部张菁分析，后续观察人民币汇率走势仍需要关注多方面因素，包括中国出口、地缘 ...

新华社北京4月16日电（记者陈云富、任军）随着国际金价持续上涨，以人民币计价的黄金价格连创新 高。16日，多家品牌金店足金饰品报价突破每克1000元，市场普遍报价在每克1005元左右，再创历史新 高。 近期市场避险情绪升温，伦敦现货黄金价格16日盘中一度升至每盎司3270美元上方，4月以来，累计上 涨近5%。受到带动，上海黄金交易所现货黄金价格盘中来到每克775元上方，上海期货交易所上市的黄 金期货主力合约一度涨至每克777.36元，均创新高。 日前，高盛、摩根大通、瑞银等多家机构上调黄金价格的预期。分析人士认为，受美国关税政策冲击， 市场对美经济衰退担忧加剧，传统避险资产美国国债大幅震荡，不少投资者将眼光投向黄金。"市场不 确定性较高，加上全球央行持续购金，对金价构成支撑。"贺利氏贵金属中国区交易总监陆伟佳表示。 今年以来，以人民币计价的现货黄金价格已累计上涨约26%，接近去年全年涨幅。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:刘阳】 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 尽管黄金和比特币两种资产在2025年都出现了上涨并屡创新高，但截至上周五，黄金的表现仍然领先。 当天早些时候，在一份美国裁定1公斤和100盎司金条将被征收关税的报告发布后，黄金期货价格一度上 涨，但随后有报道称特朗普政府计划澄清进口金条将被豁免，金价随之收窄了涨幅。 尽管如此，黄金今年的优势可能反映了一个更广泛的趋势，即加剧的地缘政治紧张局势和关税担忧，已 使传统的避险资产比新的替代品更具优势。加密货币的多头们长期以来一直将比特币宣传为"数字黄 金"，认为它最终可能扮演类似的角色。但分析师表示，就目前而言，黄金作为危机对冲工具的悠久传 统正在占据上风。 美国银行资产管理集团的高级投资策略总监Rob Haworth说，"今年，黄金无疑比比特币等加密货币更多 地受益于避险资金的流入。" Currency Research Associates的分析师在上周五的一份报告中写道，从技术角度来看，比特币的短期势 头已转为负面，而黄金则保持积极，这表明未来一周金价有进一步上涨的潜力。 从更长远来看，Castle Funds的总裁兼首席投资官Peter Eberle ...

这篇文章将聚焦非专业投资者都能参考的资产配置思路。我将全球可投资资产分为三类：与中国经济高 度相关的资产；与美国经济高度相关的资产；与中美经济都不怎么相关的资产。 一、房地产、股票与黄金 我之所以推荐把资产分成这三大类别，源于对全球格局的观察——当今世界的经济版图，基本由中国与 美国两股力量主导。 两国之间既有深度的经济联系，又存在激烈的竞争关系，呈现此消彼长的格局。争夺全球霸主地位是一 场长期博弈，两者将会长期对垒。 我们无法断言中国必胜美国，尽管身为中国人自然希望这一刻到来，但投资上不能被情绪驱动。中国相 关的资产，必须要配置一部分。但美国的科技与金融实力同样强大，必须承认并尊重。 2021年中国房地产触顶、美国深陷疫情时，"东升西降"一度成为投资圈的流行判断，但很快在2022年偃 旗息鼓。 本文来自微信公众号：投资人黄海 （ID：haivcconsumer），作者：黄海，头图来自：AI生成 日常生活中，不少朋友会私下向我们咨询投资建议——手中有一笔资金，该如何配置？ 美国依然是一个强大的经济体。虽然已不复1990年代的巅峰，但体量与实力仍不可小觑。2025年初，随 着DeepSeek的横空出世，中国资产 ...

Group 1 - Gold futures prices have reached a record high of $3,491.30 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 30.8% [5] - Bitcoin has seen a year-to-date increase of 24.6%, but it has declined by 5.4% from its historical high of $123,165.67 on July 14 [5] - The S&P 500 index has risen by 8.6% this year, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has only increased by 3.8% [5] Group 2 - Central banks globally have accelerated gold purchases due to geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and macroeconomic uncertainties [2] - Traditional safe-haven assets like gold are preferred over newer alternatives like Bitcoin, which lacks a long history as a reserve asset [2] - The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX.US) has surged by 71% year-to-date, while the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD.US) has increased by 29% [6]

白银、钯金等品种的同步上涨，也反映出贵金属板块整体的资金流入趋势。白银价格触及自7月25日以 来的高点38.11美元/盎司，钯金涨幅更是达到1.7%，至1151.31美元。这种联动行情表明，资金在避险情 绪的驱动下，不仅青睐传统的黄金，也在布局工业属性与贵金属属性兼备的品种，以实现风险对冲与潜 在收益的平衡。 8月8日亚洲交易时段，现货黄金在3400美元/盎司附近交投，延续了前一日的涨势。此前，美国总统特 朗普宣布的新一轮关税正式生效，加之最新就业数据强化了市场对美联储年内降息的预期，使得投资者 的避险情绪明显升温。现货黄金周四一度触及自7月23日以来的最高水平3392.65美元，期金结算价则升 至3453.7美元，白银、钯金等贵金属亦出现不同程度上涨。 在宏观环境的交汇作用下，黄金市场的上涨逻辑清晰可见。首先，关税的落地加剧了投资者对全球贸易 环境不确定性的担忧，这不仅可能影响企业盈利和跨境投资，还可能引发全球供应链的再调整。在这种 背景下，部分资金倾向于增持无信用风险的避险资产，而黄金无疑是首选之一。 不过值得注意的是，当前金价已接近近期高位，而其背后的驱动力在很大程度上依赖于政策预期与宏观 事件的持续性 ...

Market Overview - Major indices experienced a rebound this week (August 4-8, 2025), with A-shares showing an overall increase, specifically the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.11%, Shenzhen Component Index by 1.25%, and ChiNext Index by 0.48% [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%, contributing to a cautious market sentiment [1] - The manufacturing PMI for July remained below the growth line, indicating a decline in demand, while the market showed a preference for conservative investments, with value sectors outperforming growth sectors [1] ETF Performance - Gold-related ETFs saw significant gains, with the Gold Stock ETF (159562) and Gold Stock ETF (517400) rising over 9%, driven by signals of potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1] - The average increase for all ETFs in the market was 1.24%, with commodity ETFs performing particularly well, up by 1.77% [1] Fund Trends - There was a substantial net inflow of 10.767 billion yuan into the ETF market during the week, indicating high market activity [4] - Cross-border ETFs continued to perform strongly, with inflows reaching 9.841 billion yuan, while bond ETFs also attracted over 6.5 billion yuan [4][7] Bond ETF Activity - Bond ETFs experienced significant inflows amid rising risk aversion, with specific funds like Silver Hua Daily ETF (511880) and Short-term Bond ETF (511360) each seeing inflows exceeding 1.6 billion yuan [7][8] - The Short-term Bond ETF (511360) achieved a weekly trading volume exceeding 118.18 billion yuan, leading the market [8] Upcoming ETF Listings - Four new ETFs are set to launch next week, including the E Fund CSI A50 Enhanced Strategy ETF (512030), which aims to reflect the performance of the largest 50 companies in various sectors [9] - The Penghua National Robot Industry ETF (159278) will track the National Robot Index, focusing on core segments of the robotics industry [9][10] Industry Insights - The global gold mining companies are expected to see a continued increase in profit per ounce, with a projected tax-pre profit of $1,546 per ounce in 1H25, a 63% increase from 2024 [2] - The implementation of the "High-Quality Development Implementation Plan for the Gold Industry (2025-2027)" is anticipated to further enhance the growth potential of gold companies [2]

【要闻速递】 摘要周五（8月8日）欧洲时段，现货黄金重启升势，再次站上3400美元关口上方，美国对进口金条加征 关税，贸易紧张局势升温引发市场对全球经济前景的担忧，从而提升了对黄金的避险需求。 周五（8月8日）欧洲时段，现货黄金重启升势，再次站上3400美元关口上方，美国对进口金条加征关 税，贸易紧张局势升温引发市场对全球经济前景的担忧，从而提升了对黄金的避险需求。 分析师指出，在政治经济不确定性加剧、货币政策转向宽松的背景下，黄金作为传统避险资产的价值持 续凸显。主要贸易伙伴正积极寻求新的贸易协议，而投资者则通过增持黄金来对冲潜在风险。 【技术分析】 凌晨收盘前现货黄金冲高突破3400关口延续多头强势3396一线收盘，日线再次收于中阳线的形态，而早 间开盘3402一线，最高冲击3409一线快速回落于3381附近后再度上行，目前黄金价格仍然维持于3390一 线上方整理，目前短线内的整体趋势比较明朗，一直是处于震荡上行的局面，早间的回撤也刚好触及到 了日线的5日线的位置3380附近，此位置也是关系到后期多头能否蓄力继续上攻的点位之一，而目前对 于欧盘的走势也相当重要，而一旦欧盘金价继续突破上方压制的话，则美盘很 ...