Domestic News - Roma's employee reported that the company has notified a complete halt in operations and production, with salaries only paid up to June [1] International News - The EU aims to reach a "principle agreement" with the Trump administration by July 9, rather than a comprehensive deal [2] - The U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs in June, exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1% [2] - Nvidia is set to become the highest-valued company in history [2]

Group 1 - The Indonesian Minister expressed a desire for more favorable tariff agreements compared to Vietnam [1]

Domestic News - The 16th meeting of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee concluded, passing the newly revised Public Security Administration Punishment Law and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law [2] - The Ministry of Commerce spokesperson stated that China will approve export applications for controlled items that meet conditions, while the U.S. will correspondingly lift a series of restrictive measures against China [2] International News - Trump announced the cessation of all work related to lifting sanctions on Iran, indicating potential airstrikes if Iran continues its enrichment activities [3] - The U.S. Senate rejected a proposal to limit Trump's military action authority against Iran [3] - Trump has terminated all trade negotiations with Canada [3] - The EU and the U.S. are reportedly confident in reaching a tariff agreement before the end of July [3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin suggested that trade negotiations may conclude before September, hinting at a possible extension of the negotiation deadline [3] Economic Indicators - The central bank held its second-quarter meeting, recommending an increase in the intensity of monetary policy adjustments [4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is rigorously investigating financial fraud cases, holding accomplices accountable for the first time [4] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges plan to adjust the price fluctuation limit for risk-warning stocks on the main board to 10% [4] - From January to May, the total profit of large-scale industrial enterprises in China reached 27,204.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% [4] - From January to May, the total operating revenue of state-owned and state-controlled enterprises fell by 0.1% year-on-year, with total profits down by 2.8% [4] Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices both reached new highs [4] - OPEC+ is considering a significant increase in oil production [4] - Federal Reserve's Kashkari expects two rate cuts starting in September, with tariff impacts becoming evident [4] - Russia plans to reduce military spending and is preparing for new negotiations with Ukraine, remaining open to talks with the U.S. [4] - U.S. consumer spending unexpectedly declined in May, with moderate inflation rising, leading traders to increase bets on three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. President Trump stated that the deadline for the tariff agreement on July 9 can be extended or shortened, indicating flexibility in negotiations [1] Group 1 - The potential for extending or shortening the tariff agreement deadline suggests ongoing discussions and possible changes in trade policy [1]

Domestic News - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges plan to adjust the price fluctuation limit for risk-warning stocks on the main board to 10% [1] - The State Council, chaired by Li Qiang, reviewed the implementation of the national science and technology conference spirit and approved the draft of the Rural Road Regulations [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is strictly investigating financial fraud cases and will hold accomplices accountable for the first time [1] - The People's Bank of China held its second-quarter meeting on June 23, suggesting an increase in the intensity of monetary policy regulation and a flexible approach to policy implementation based on economic and financial market conditions [1] - The National Internet Information Office released the third edition of the "Data Export Security Assessment Declaration Guidelines," clarifying the conditions and processes for extending the validity of data export security assessment results [1] - The 12th round of negotiations for the second phase of the China-South Korea Free Trade Agreement took place in South Korea from June 23 to 27, with positive progress made on cross-border service trade, investment, financial services, and negative list market access [1] - Li Auto expects to deliver approximately 108,000 vehicles in the second quarter of 2025, down from its previous delivery outlook of 123,000 to 128,000 vehicles [1] International News - Russia plans to reduce military spending, indicating potential shifts in defense-related industries [2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices both reached new highs, reflecting strong performance in the U.S. stock market [2] - The EU and the U.S. are confident in reaching a tariff agreement before the July deadline, which could impact trade-related sectors [2] - Bessent indicated that trade negotiations may conclude before September, suggesting a possible extension of the negotiation deadline [2] - Federal Reserve's Kashkari anticipates two interest rate cuts starting in September, with tariff impacts potentially delaying further cuts [2] - U.S. consumer spending unexpectedly declined in May, while inflation showed a moderate increase, leading traders to increase bets on three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 [2]

市场消息：欧盟和美国有信心在7月最后期限前达成关税协议。 ...

欧元兑美元维持0.2%的涨幅，报1.1720。欧盟和美国相信，他们能赶在7月截止日期之前达成关税协 议。 ...

Group 1 - The potential non-farm employment growth in the U.S. is expected to decline significantly from over 100,000 jobs per month to less than 10,000 by the end of next year, leading to a reduction in the potential economic growth rate from slightly above 2% to 1.4-1.6% [1] - The average monthly job creation in the private sector over the past two years has been approximately 172,000, indicating a stark contrast with the anticipated future potential growth [1] - The Bank of Japan's bond purchase plan lacks long-term guidance, creating ongoing market uncertainty regarding the scale of bond purchases post-April 2027 [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's economic projections reveal the highest level of divergence in interest rate paths for 2025 in the past decade, with a median expectation of two rate cuts (50 basis points) but a range from no cuts to a 75 basis point reduction [2] - The disparity between the most common and second most common predictions for interest rate changes has reached 50 basis points, the largest difference in ten years, indicating fundamental disagreements among policymakers on balancing inflation control and economic growth [2] - Despite downgrades in the U.S. credit rating by major agencies, foreign investment in U.S. Treasury bonds remains strong due to the lack of reliable alternatives and the relatively high yields offered [2] Group 3 - Key factors influencing the global market include the potential for tariff agreements among countries, fluctuations in the dollar's exchange rate, and rising risks associated with the U.S. deficit [3] - There is an expectation that major countries may reach partial consensus on tariff issues and extend grace periods while implementing specific industry tariff measures [3] - The U.S. deficit risk is anticipated to rise, which may keep U.S. Treasury yields between 4% and 5% [3]

韩国产业通商资源部：美国与韩国贸易部长重申致力于早日达成关税协议。 ...

日本首相石破茂：不能为了仓促达成关税协议而损害日本的国家利益。 ...