美欧撕破脸？特朗普说话很难听，反倒帮了中国一个大忙，欧洲领导人正接棒访华。 刚出炉的美国新版国安战略狠狠扎了欧洲人的心。 这份战略文件长达33页，涉及欧洲的部分，措辞十分犀利，一点面子都不留。 文件说，欧洲现在面临的经济衰退已经是次要问题，更严峻的现实是，欧洲正在面临文明消亡。 这对那些老牌欧洲国家来说，是绝对不能接受的说法。 美国作为欧洲的传统盟友，显然知道哪疼往哪戳。 从特朗普上台到现在，他的言行都在说明一件事，美欧之间的裂痕已经越来越大，在美国眼里，欧洲就是一头"大肥羊"，不割白不割。 美国的关税屠刀高高举起，中国的合作之手也稳稳递出，美国的翻脸无情，让欧洲加速做选择，转向中国。 5号，法国总统马克龙刚结束访华。 8号，德国外长瓦德富尔的专机就已抵达中国，和中方谈关键原材料合作。 之后德国总理默茨还想来一趟中国，而促使他们这么频繁这么着急访华的主要因素，就是美现在汽车、美妆等一些欧洲人引以为傲的产业，正在美国市场咬 牙硬扛。 欧盟委员会12月刚发布的经济报告说得明明白白，2025年欧盟GDP预计增长1.4%，但美国关税的滞后效应会在明年发酵，光汽车和化工两个行业，就可能 让欧元区增长少掉0.5个百分点。 ...

新华社伦敦12月11日电 题：从"不上桌"到"不同行"，美欧关系有点冷 新华社记者吴黎明 华盛顿的初冬寒意渐浓，而跨大西洋关系的温度似乎降得更快。当美国总统特朗普在最新国家安全 战略报告中警告欧洲面临"文明消亡"，德国总理默茨直言要做好"欧美不同行"的准备时，人们不禁意识 到：双方之间的裂痕，正在从战术分歧演变为战略疏离，美欧关系冷得有些彻骨。 还记得，先前美国绕过欧洲直接与俄罗斯就乌克兰危机进行会谈，让欧洲媒体惊呼被安排"坐小孩 那桌"。而今，特朗普政府的国家安全战略报告给欧洲贴上了多重负面标签——经济停滞、监管过度， 甚至整个文明都岌岌可危。曾经亲密的盟友关系，如今却要在"不同行"的警告中重新定位。 特朗普对欧洲的批评从来"不客气"。早在首个任期，他就将欧盟称为"德国的工具"，威胁退出北 约，并与欧洲领导人屡生龃龉。如今重返白宫，特朗普的批评来势更猛。他近期接受美国《政治报》采 访时说：欧洲领导人"软弱"，沉迷于"政治正确"；移民政策正在"摧毁"欧洲；"伦敦已经面目全非""我曾 经热爱巴黎，它现在和以前大不相同了"……这些言论与其国家安全战略报告一脉相承，将欧洲批得体 无完肤。 默茨所说的"不同行"，绝非 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the geopolitical dynamics between the EU and the US, highlighting the EU's willingness to compromise on tariffs in exchange for cooperation against China, which the US has firmly rejected [1][5][9] - The US has imposed high tariffs on over 400 steel and aluminum products, significantly impacting traditional industrial powers in the EU, particularly Germany, France, and Italy [3][5] - The US is leveraging the EU's economic vulnerabilities to reinforce its own digital dominance and strategic interests, demanding concessions from the EU in areas like digital regulations and market oversight [7][9][14] Summary by Sections EU-US Relations - The EU is seeking to alleviate the pressure from US tariffs by proposing cooperation to counter China's economic challenges, but the US has made it clear that tariff negotiations are off the table [5][9] - The US insists that any reduction in tariffs would require the EU to relax regulations on American tech companies, indicating a transactional approach to the relationship [5][7] Economic Impact - The US's imposition of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum products has created significant challenges for the EU, prompting a search for solutions to mitigate the economic fallout [3][5] - The EU's dependency on the US for energy supplies, particularly LNG, has increased due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions, limiting its ability to confront the US directly [9][14] Strategic Implications - The article suggests that the EU's attempts to balance its position between the US and China may lead to a loss of strategic autonomy and internal unity [13][14] - The US's approach reflects a self-interested strategy that prioritizes its own economic and strategic gains over a balanced partnership with the EU [9][14] - The ongoing competition between the US and China presents an opportunity for China to strengthen ties with emerging markets, potentially reducing reliance on Western markets [14]

Core Points - The EU trade ministers' meeting in Brussels emphasized the importance of the US fulfilling the US-EU trade agreement [1] - The EU is urging the US to reduce the 50% tariffs imposed on its steel and aluminum products [1] - The US is requesting the EU to relax regulations in the digital sector, indicating ongoing challenges in implementing the trade agreement [1]

Core Points - Canada has announced a reduction in tariffs on imports from China following a visit by Foreign Minister Anand, marking a shift in diplomatic relations after a period of trade tensions [1][3] - The Canadian government is reassessing its relationship with China, especially in light of increasing protectionism from the United States, which has led to significant economic impacts on Canadian industries [1][5] Group 1: Trade Relations - The trade relationship between Canada and China has been strained due to high tariffs imposed by Canada on Chinese electric vehicles and steel products, which prompted retaliatory measures from China [1][3] - Canada is the largest exporter of canola, with over half of its exports going to China, and the closure of the Chinese market has severely impacted Canadian farmers [3][5] Group 2: Economic Impact - The trade tensions have resulted in a decline of over 8% in manufacturing output and nearly a one-third reduction in agricultural exports in Canada during the first half of the year [5] - High inflation rates in Canada, coupled with rising energy and food prices, have created significant political pressure on the government to adjust its trade policies [5] Group 3: Policy Shift - The Canadian government is moving from a "freeze" to a "restart" in its policy towards China, indicating a willingness to recalibrate relations and enhance cooperation in various sectors [3][6] - Public opinion in Canada has shifted, with support for tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles dropping from over 60% to less than half, providing a social basis for policy adjustment [5][6] Group 4: International Context - The changing international landscape, characterized by unilateralism and trade protectionism, is prompting middle powers like Canada to seek strategic balance, with China being a key partner in this context [8] - The recognition that cooperation with China is necessary rather than risky is growing among Canadian industries and public opinion [8]

Core Viewpoint - Canada is recalibrating its international relations, particularly with China, in response to increasing pressure from the United States, showcasing a strategic balancing act to protect its national interests [1][3][5]. Group 1: Diplomatic Moves - Canadian Foreign Minister Anand's visit to China signals a desire to restart cooperation in key areas such as trade, agriculture, and energy, indicating a shift towards a closer economic relationship with China [1][3]. - The Canadian government has implemented tariff reductions on steel and aluminum products to alleviate domestic economic pressures, reflecting a strategic pivot towards China as a vital market [1][3]. Group 2: Response to U.S. Pressure - The Canadian leadership's friendly policy towards China is a direct response to the increasing pressure from the U.S., particularly regarding steel and aluminum tariffs that have severely impacted Canada's economy [3][5]. - Prime Minister Carney's strong stance against Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu represents a challenge to U.S. influence and indicates Canada's attempt to assert its independence in the international arena [3][5]. Group 3: Strategic Considerations - Canada's recent diplomatic actions are a calculated response to both internal and external challenges, reflecting the survival strategies of smaller nations in the context of great power competition [5][7]. - The ongoing negotiations between Canada and China regarding agricultural products may face significant challenges, especially if U.S. interference occurs, highlighting the complexities of Canada's position [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The effectiveness of Canada's "two-sided" strategy in balancing relations with both the U.S. and China remains uncertain, as historical precedents suggest that such approaches can lead to unforeseen consequences [5][7]. - The ability of Canada to maintain economic stability while navigating the geopolitical landscape between the U.S. and China will be a critical area to monitor in the future [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of President Trump's sudden announcement to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, which is expected to create substantial market volatility and uncertainty in trade negotiations between the U.S. and China [4][8]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, U.S. stock markets experienced a sharp decline, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.71%, the Nasdaq falling 3.56%, and the Dow Jones decreasing by 1.9%. This marked the largest single-day drop since April [6]. - Investors shifted towards safe-haven assets, leading to a significant sell-off in risk assets such as oil and metals. Bitcoin saw a drop of over 10%, while WTI crude oil fell more than 5%, nearing its yearly low. Gold prices surged above $4000 per ounce, and the VIX index rose over 30% in a single day [6]. Interpretation of Events - The announcement of the 100% tariff is viewed as a "black swan" event that exceeded market expectations and is likely to have a profound short-term impact on the market. The future market dynamics will depend on the direction of subsequent negotiations [8]. Reasons for the Tariff Increase - The immediate reason for the tariff increase is China's stricter regulations on rare earths and related technologies. Additionally, it is seen as a strategy to strengthen the U.S. negotiating position ahead of the APEC meeting at the end of October [12]. Future Tariff War Outlook - The article suggests that the Trump administration's tariff policy aims to leverage tariffs to gain economic advantages. The likelihood of maintaining a complex tariff structure with rates of 30% or higher remains high, especially given the pressures from agricultural states and inflation concerns [14]. Industry-Specific Tariff Rates - Various industries will face different tariff rates, including: - Steel and aluminum products: 50% - Automotive parts: 25% - Kitchen cabinets and related products: 50% - Soft furniture: 30% - Brand and patented drugs: 100% [13]. Market Impact Analysis - The market is expected to react with a risk-averse trading style, with significant sell-offs in previously high-performing assets. The upcoming week may see continued volatility as investors digest the implications of the tariff announcement and await China's response [16]. - Two potential scenarios are outlined: 1. **Escalation of Tariffs (40%)**: This could lead to a global economic downturn, increased inflation, and a shift towards recessionary conditions, negatively impacting U.S. stocks and risk assets while benefiting safe-haven assets like gold [19]. 2. **Negotiation Easing (60%)**: If negotiations progress positively, market sentiment may shift back to a focus on interest rate cuts, benefiting risk assets and potentially stabilizing the domestic market [20].

Core Viewpoint - The recent joint report by the International Strategic Research Center and the Council on Foreign Relations criticizes the current U.S. trade policies, particularly escalating tariffs, which are pushing the economy towards a cliff, threatening both economic foundations and global influence [2][11]. Summary by Sections Tariff Implementation and Effects - The U.S. began imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum products in 2018, with rates of 25% and 10%, affecting neighboring countries like Canada and Mexico, leading to retaliatory tariffs and increased logistics costs [4]. - The trade volume between the U.S. and Mexico is projected to be $840 billion in 2024, and with Canada at $762 billion, the tariffs have strained relationships and increased operational costs for businesses [4]. Impact on China and Specific Industries - The first round of tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods began in July 2018, with subsequent rounds increasing the total to $360 billion by May 2019, significantly impacting the technology sector and causing price increases for American households [6]. - American families are estimated to spend an additional $1,300 annually due to these tariffs, while farmers, particularly soybean producers, have faced losses amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars [6]. Supply Chain Disruptions - The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated existing supply chain issues, particularly in the automotive industry due to chip shortages, leading to factory shutdowns [8]. - The Phase One trade agreement signed in January 2020 aimed to alleviate some tariffs but has faced implementation challenges, with many tariffs remaining in place [8]. Economic Consequences and Global Relations - The report highlights that the U.S. trade war has not only failed to reduce trade deficits but has also damaged relationships with allies, leading to increased tensions and a loss of trust [11]. - The tariffs are described as an "invisible tax" on the public, with businesses increasingly shifting production overseas, as seen with companies like Harley-Davidson [13]. Long-term Implications - The report warns that the U.S. is losing its global leadership position due to these trade policies, which undermine economic security and innovation [13]. - The long-term economic costs of these tariffs are expected to outweigh any short-term political gains, with potential negative impacts on sectors like technology and agriculture [11][13].

Group 1 - Canada imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum products, aligning with the US's Indo-Pacific strategy, but underestimated China's retaliatory measures [3] - China initiated an anti-dumping investigation against Canadian canola seeds, leading to a 75.8% deposit requirement on all Canadian canola companies, effectively closing the Chinese market to Canadian canola [3][5] - The impact on Canadian farmers is severe, with over 90% of canola previously exported to China now stuck in warehouses, affecting the livelihoods of thousands [5][7] Group 2 - Canada sought assistance from the US but faced continued tariffs on its products, including potential 250% tariffs on lumber and dairy, exacerbating its economic challenges [7] - Canadian Prime Minister expressed willingness to mend relations with China, indicating a shift in diplomatic strategy, but actual policy changes regarding tariffs have not yet occurred [7][9] - China has diversified its canola imports, purchasing from Australia and other countries, indicating that Canada may lose its market share permanently if relations do not improve [9]

Group 1 - Canadian officials, including the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, are planning visits to China to discuss trade issues and seek to improve relations after previous tensions [3][5][20] - The Canadian government previously imposed high tariffs on Chinese products, including a 100% tariff on electric vehicles and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, which led to a significant drop in exports [5][7] - China's response included an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian canola and a temporary anti-dumping deposit of 75.8%, impacting Canada's agricultural sector significantly [7][9] Group 2 - The Canadian canola industry, heavily reliant on exports to China, faced severe losses due to previous trade disputes, with estimates of $2.35 billion lost between 2019 and 2020 [9][11] - Domestic pressure in Canada is mounting, with calls from farmers and agricultural exporters for the government to reverse tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to avoid further restrictions from China [11][14] - The current Canadian administration's mixed signals in foreign policy have led to economic repercussions, highlighting the need for a more consistent approach to international relations [13][14] Group 3 - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of sincerity and respect for mutual interests in rebuilding trust, indicating that mere diplomatic visits without concrete actions will not suffice [11][20] - Historical context shows that Canada has previously faced backlash from the U.S. while trying to balance its relations with China, complicating its trade policies [18][20] - The article suggests that Canada must demonstrate genuine commitment to cooperation through actions, such as lifting unreasonable tariffs, rather than relying solely on verbal assurances [20]