Economic Events and Data Summary - Japan's May trade balance will be released at 07:50 [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision at 12:30 [1] - RBA Governor Philip Lowe will hold a press conference at 13:30 [1] - Germany's seasonally adjusted trade balance for May will be published at 14:00 [1] - France's May trade balance will be available at 14:45 [1] - The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June in the U.S. will be released at 18:00 [1] - The New York Fed's one-year inflation expectations for June will be published at 23:00 [1] - The EIA will release its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report at 00:00 the next day [1] - API crude oil inventory data for the week ending July 4 will be available at 04:30 the next day [1]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: Japan's trade balance for May will be released at 07:50 [1] - Key Point 2: The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision at 12:30 [1] - Key Point 3: RBA Governor Philip Lowe will hold a press conference at 13:30 [1] - Key Point 4: Germany's seasonally adjusted trade balance for May will be published at 14:00 [1] - Key Point 5: France's trade balance for May will be available at 14:45 [1] - Key Point 6: The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June in the U.S. will be released at 18:00 [1] - Key Point 7: The New York Fed's one-year inflation expectations for June will be published at 23:00 [1] - Key Point 8: The EIA will release its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report at 00:00 [1] - Key Point 9: The API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 4 will be reported at 04:30 [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the oil processing industry Core Insights - The report indicates a more relaxed fundamental outlook for the oil market, with adjustments in supply and demand forecasts from IEA, EIA, and OPEC for 2025 and 2026 [1][2][3] Supply Overview - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil supply for 2025 to be 10,488.00, 10,434.42, and 10,410.62 million barrels per day respectively, showing increases from 2024 of +182.72, +154.73, and +175.68 million barrels per day [2][32] - For 2026, the supply predictions are 10,603.04, 10,513.81, and 10,505.26 million barrels per day, reflecting increases from 2025 of +115.04, +79.39, and +94.64 million barrels per day [2][32] - The average change in global oil supply for Q2 2025 is forecasted to be +70.56 million barrels per day, a significant increase from previous predictions [2][27] Demand Overview - Global oil demand predictions for 2025 are 10,376.27, 10,352.80, and 10,513.49 million barrels per day from IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, with year-on-year increases of +72.41, +78.67, and +129.49 million barrels per day [2][4] - For 2026, the demand forecasts are 10,450.19, 10,458.75, and 10,641.54 million barrels per day, indicating increases from 2025 of +73.92, +105.95, and +128.05 million barrels per day [2][4] Price Trends - As of July 2, 2025, Brent crude, WTI, Russian ESPO, and Urals crude prices are $69.11, $67.45, $62.59, and $65.49 per barrel respectively, with recent monthly changes of +6.93%, +7.89%, +3.54%, and 0.00% [9][10] - Year-to-date price changes show Brent crude at -8.98%, WTI at -7.77%, Russian ESPO at -13.01%, and Urals at -4.41% [9][10] Inventory Insights - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil inventory changes for 2025 to be +111.73, +81.62, and -102.87 million barrels per day respectively, with an average change of +30.16 million barrels per day [3][27] - For 2026, the inventory changes are forecasted at +152.85, +55.06, and -136.28 million barrels per day, averaging +23.88 million barrels per day [1][27] Related Companies - The report highlights several related companies including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) among others [4]

【美国原油供需情况及全球原油市场动态受关注】当周美国原油产量基本平稳，环比降0.2万桶/日，至 1343.3万桶/日；贝克休斯石油钻井数减6台，处于历史低位，显示页岩油产量增长动力不足。同时，美 国原油进口量环比增97.5万桶/日，出口量大减196.5万桶/日，净进口量显著增加。 需求方面，美国原油 表需小幅下行，但仍高于历史同期均值。炼厂加工量环比小幅增长，整体需求端表现符合旺季预期。 库存上，6月27日当周美国商业库存累库384.5万桶，因净进口量增加；库欣地区去库149.3万桶，需求地 PADD3库存累库504.2万桶。 成品油供应方面，上周炼厂开工率回升0.2%至94.9%，处于较高水平。美 国炼厂检修量低位，预计旺季开工率维持高位。 成品油消费端，表需环比基本平稳，各类油品走势分 化。出行方面，汽油需求大幅下降，航煤基本平稳；工业油品方面，馏分油和丙烷&丙烯表需均小幅上 升。七月暑期旅游旺季，高速行驶里程和坐飞机人数处于高位。 成品油库存方面，汽油累库418.8万 桶，因需求回落、产量增加；馏分燃料油去库171.0万桶，因需求持续走强。 全球原油市场，EIA数据 显示原油小幅累库，旺季需求符合预期。 ...

Market Overview - As of July 3, Iran has suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, raising concerns about geopolitical instability and leading to an increase in international oil prices. NYMEX crude futures for August rose by $2.00 to $67.45 per barrel, a 3.06% increase; ICE Brent futures for September rose by $2.00 to $69.11 per barrel, a 2.98% increase [1] Key Information - In the first five months of 2025, China's crude oil imports from the Middle East accounted for 42.5%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year and down 5.6 percentage points from the five-year average. Conversely, imports from the Asia-Pacific region rose to 15.0%, an increase of 4.0 percentage points year-on-year and up 6.3 percentage points from the five-year average. Imports from South America accounted for 10.1%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the five-year average [2] - Shandong independent refineries operated at a crude distillation capacity of 50.74%, down 0.74 percentage points from the previous week. Specific operations included maintenance at Hualian, while Changyi's crude distillation unit was operational, and other secondary units remained idle [2] - Ecuador's state-owned oil pipeline company OCP has preemptively closed its crude oil pipeline to construct a new bypass due to accelerated erosion issues. Meanwhile, Petroamazonas is repairing pipelines along a new route, with leakage issues under control [2] - Polish refiner Orlen has ceased purchasing Russian crude oil for its Litvinov refinery in the Czech Republic, marking the end of its last contract with Rosneft [2] Production and Investment - Mexico's oil production is expected to drop to levels not seen since the late 1970s, with an average daily output of 1.62 million barrels from January to May 2024, the lowest since 1979. June exports fell to a historic low of 529,000 barrels per day due to declining production and reduced output from the Dos Bocas refinery [3] - Argentine energy company Pampa Energia announced a $426 million investment to build an oil and gas processing plant in the Vaca Muerta shale region, located in the Neuquén province, with plans for production to commence next year [3] Price Dynamics - Overnight oil price increases were primarily driven by geopolitical events and trade developments, although fundamental factors limited the extent of the price rise. Iran's suspension of cooperation with the UN nuclear agency raised concerns about supply disruptions, increasing risk premiums. Additionally, a trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on exports to Vietnam, boosted demand expectations. However, OPEC+ production increases have been fully priced in, and U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 3.8 million barrels, contrary to analyst expectations of a 1.8 million barrel decrease. Gasoline demand fell to 8.6 million barrels per day, below the healthy summer threshold of 9 million barrels, raising concerns about consumption fatigue [4] Outlook - The recommendation is to maintain a wait-and-see approach, with WTI resistance levels at [67,68], Brent pressure at [69,70], and SC at [510,520]. Options trading may capture volatility opportunities, for reference only [5]

美国能源信息署（EIA）：美国上周EIA原油库存增加385万桶，彭博用户预计减少400万桶、分析师预 期减少269.200万桶，之前一周下降583.6万桶。 ...

美国至6月27日当周EIA原油库存、库欣原油库存、战略石油储备库存将于十分钟后公布。 ...

美国石油协会（API）数据显示，6月27日当周，美国API原油库存 +68万桶，之前一周 -427.7万桶。 ...

Key Points - The article highlights important financial data and events to be monitored on July 2, 2025, including U.S. API crude oil inventory and Eurozone unemployment rate [1] - It lists specific times for the release of various economic indicators, such as U.S. Challenger job cuts and ADP employment figures [1] - The article emphasizes the significance of EIA crude oil inventory data, including Cushing and strategic petroleum reserve inventories, which are crucial for understanding market dynamics [1]

Economic Data and Events - Key focus on economic events and data on July 1, including China's June Caixin Manufacturing PMI at 09:45 [1] - The UK Nationwide House Price Index month-on-month change at 14:00 [1] - France's June Manufacturing PMI final value at 15:50 [1] - Germany's June Manufacturing PMI final value and seasonally adjusted unemployment rate at 15:55 [1] - Eurozone's June Manufacturing PMI final value at 16:00 [1] - UK's June Manufacturing PMI final value at 16:30 [1] - Eurozone's June CPI at 17:00 [1] - US June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value at 21:45 [1] - US June ISM Manufacturing PMI, May JOLTs job openings, and May construction spending month-on-month change at 22:00 [1] - API crude oil inventory for the week ending June 28 at 04:30 the next day [1]