Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The cotton market presents a complex situation. The spot trading of domestic cotton is sluggish with low inventory and few offers, and the spot sales basis is mostly stable. The purchase price of seed cotton is temporarily stable, but farmers are hesitant. The domestic cotton - textile enterprise market has general spot trading, with cotton yarn prices fluctuating slightly and the sales of cotton - cloth weakening. The ICE cotton futures declined due to the strengthening dollar, and the market is awaiting the US Department of Agriculture's weekly sales report data [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,555 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.11% and a night - session closing price of 13,520 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.26%. CY2511 closed at 19,860 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.02% and a night - session closing price of 19,765 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.48%. ICE cotton futures (December contract) closed at 66.14 cents/pound with a decline of 0.71%. The trading volume and positions of CF2601 decreased, while the positions of CY2511 increased [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 3,716, a decrease of 199 compared to the previous day, and the effective forecast remained unchanged at 12. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts and effective forecasts were both 0 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,827 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.10% compared to the previous day; the price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,540 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.10% compared to the previous day. The prices in Shandong and Hebei decreased. The 3128B index was 15,062 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47% compared to the previous day. The international cotton index (M:CNCottonM) was 74.21 cents/pound, an increase of 0.62% compared to the previous day. The price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count remained unchanged, and the arrival price increased by 0.05% [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 compared to the previous day's spread. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The spot trading of domestic cotton is cold, with low inventory and few offers. The spot sales basis is mostly stable. The purchase price of seed cotton is temporarily stable, but the actual trading volume at the lower price of 6.1 - 6.2 yuan/kg is small, and farmers are observing. The price for 2024/25 Dongjiang Hami machine - picked 3129/29B with less than 3.5 impurities is mostly CF01 + 900 - 1000, with a small number of lower quotes at 850 - 900 for inland warehouse self - pick - up [2] - **Domestic Cotton - Textile Enterprises**: The spot trading atmosphere of the pure - cotton yarn market is average. The price of pure - cotton yarn fluctuates slightly in the short term, and the market is waiting for the price guidance after the new cotton is listed. The sales of the cotton - cloth market are average, and the transactions are continuously weakening. The sales of medium - and low - count yarn cards are sustainable, while the prices of regular plain and twill fabrics are under pressure. The quoted price of cotton - cloth is stable, and the actual order price is negotiated according to the quantity [2] - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures declined again due to the strengthening dollar, and the market is paying attention to the US Department of Agriculture's weekly sales report data [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - New cotton listing pressure weighs on cotton futures prices [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,610 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.80%, and the overnight closing price was 13,575 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.26%. The trading volume was 429,911 lots, an increase of 103,594 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 737,548 lots, an increase of 26,552 lots. The closing price of CY2511 was 19,675 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.30%, and the overnight closing price was 19,665 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.05%. The trading volume was 12,216 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 16,034 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. The closing price of ICE Cotton No. 12 was 66.25 cents/pound with a decline of 0.08% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 4,096, a decrease of 136 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 12, unchanged from the previous day. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,882 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan or 0.80% from the previous day. The price of Nanjang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,595 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan or 0.68% from the previous day. The price in Shandong was 15,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan or 0.29% from the previous day. The price in Hebei was 15,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan or 0.33% from the previous day. The 3128B index was 15,224 yuan/ton, a decrease of 59 yuan or 0.39% from the previous day. The international cotton index M was 73.86 cents/pound, a decrease of 1 cent or 0.85% from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,705 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan or 0.24% from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 21,433 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan or 0.01% from the previous day [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day's spread, and the spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading was sluggish, with low inventory and few offers. The basis for spot sales was mostly stable. Recently, the purchase price of seed cotton was slightly weaker. The price of hand - picked cotton with about 39 - 40% lint and less than 12% moisture in Xinjiang was 7.15 - 7.35 yuan/kg, and the price of machine - picked cotton was 6.1 - 6.25 yuan/kg. The sales basis of 2024/25 Nanjang Kashgar machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with less than 3.5% impurities was mostly CF01 + 1300 - 1400 for inland self - pick - up [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The sentiment in the pure - cotton yarn market further weakened, and prices declined slightly in some areas. Some autumn and winter orders were replenished, and the inventory of spinning mills decreased to some extent, but the decline rate was slower than in previous years, and overall demand this year was lower than in previous years. The sales of all - cotton grey fabric market weakened in some areas, with small - order deliveries maintained. There were also small - order transactions recently, but large orders did not appear [2]. - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures continued to decline slightly yesterday, affected by the decline in crude oil and other agricultural products, but the decline narrowed [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity values is in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points as expected, but due to overly dovish expectations, commodities and stocks fell after the rate cut. Entering the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, the operating rates of the downstream industry chain are gradually increasing but still lower than the same period in previous years. With no new supply, the current domestic cotton inventory is at a historically low level, but there are expectations of increased production in the long - term. Short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The price of US cotton futures rose and then fell this week. As of Friday, the December contract of US cotton futures closed at 66.3 cents per pound, down 0.46 cents per pound from the previous week, a decline of 0.69%. The spread between December and March of US cotton weakened slightly, at -2 cents per pound, down 0.09 cents per pound from the previous week. Domestically, the price of Zhengzhou cotton fell. As of Friday, the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,720 yuan per ton, down 140 yuan per ton from the previous week, a decline of 1.01%. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 15,319 yuan per ton, down 71 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis strengthened, at 1,528 yuan per ton, up 161 yuan per ton from the previous week. The spread between January and May of Zhengzhou cotton weakened slightly, at 15 yuan per ton, down 25 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. - **Industry Information**: As of the week of September 19, the spinning mill operating rate was 66.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous week and down 5.8 percentage points from the same period last year; the weaving mill operating rate was 37.9%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous week and down 14.5 percentage points from the same period last year. The weekly commercial cotton inventory was 1.14 million tons, 520,000 tons less than the same period last year. In August 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons. From January to August 2025, China imported 590,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 2.05 million tons [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: After the Fed's rate cut, short - term commodities and stocks fell. The current fundamentals show that although the operating rates of the downstream industry chain are increasing, they are still lower than in previous years. The domestic cotton inventory is low, but there are expectations of increased production in the long - term. Short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate [9]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: On September 19, 2025, the basis was 1,528 yuan per ton, the spread between January and May of Zhengzhou cotton was 15 yuan per ton, the spinning immediate profit was -1,107 yuan per ton, the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread was 203 yuan per ton, and the FC index M with 1% tariff was 13,457 yuan per ton, and with sliding - scale duty was 14,258 yuan per ton. The short - term cotton price may continue to fluctuate [10]. 2. Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, the basis trend of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, US cotton contract spreads, and external market spreads, to show the spread trends of different periods and varieties [24][26][28] 3. Domestic Market Situation - **Production and Imports**: The report shows the data and trends of China's cotton processing, import volume, US exports to China, and cotton yarn imports through various charts [38][40][43][45] - **Downstream Operations**: It presents the operating rates of spinning and weaving mills, national sales progress, cotton inventory, and spinning mill raw material and finished - product inventory through charts [48][50][53][55] 4. International Market Situation - **US Market**: The report shows the US cotton planting situation, production, yield, planting area, export signing progress, export shipping volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio through various charts [59][61][63][67][69] - **Brazilian Market**: It presents Brazil's cotton planting area, yield, export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio through charts [72][75][78] - **Indian Market**: The report shows India's cotton planting area, yield, consumption, import and export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio through charts [80][83][86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, with the upcoming seed - cotton purchase, the expected purchase price is 6.2 - 6.5 yuan/kg. The Zhengzhou cotton futures face significant hedging pressure above 14,000 yuan/ton, while there is insufficient motivation for hedging below 13,000 yuan/ton. The "Golden September and Silver October" in consumption is lackluster, and the downstream profits are poor, so the cotton price is expected to turn weak. [53] - Internationally, the cotton price has risen and then fallen. The impact of the US dollar interest - rate cut is not positive. However, the expected 3 interest - rate cuts in the US in 2025 by mainstream institutions may boost the cotton market later. The USDA's monthly supply - demand report has little impact on the market. The US cotton export data has improved, and the consumption provides some support, so the cotton price is expected to fluctuate. [53] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis - **Futures Price Trends**: Zhengzhou cotton futures weakened this week with a weekly decline of 1.01%, while ICE cotton futures fluctuated slightly with a weekly increase of 0.03% [11] - **Spot Prices**: This week, the cotton price index rose. The 3128 index increased by 62 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index increased by 70 yuan/ton [16] - **Cotton Imports**: In August, 70,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons [21] - **Cotton Inventory**: At the end of August, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 338,500 tons compared with the first half of August [25] - **Downstream Inventory**: In August, the yarn inventory was 26.58 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.35 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 33.87 days, a year - on - year increase of 4.11 days [30] - **Yarn Prices**: This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S and C32S increased by 20 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the price of JC40S increased by 60 yuan/ton [35] - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts**: This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 567, with 4438 warehouse receipts and 12 valid forecasts, totaling 4450 [41] - **US Cotton Exports**: As of September 11, the net sales of US upland cotton for the current year increased by 186,100 bales, and the net sales for the next year were 19,000 bales [44] - **US Weather**: The total area in drought (D1 - D4) in the US is 34.2%, with different drought levels covering different percentages of the country [50] 3.2后市展望 - Domestic cotton is expected to turn weak, while international cotton is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, with attention to be paid to macro - level changes [53]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in cotton futures prices on the ICE, with a current price of 66.83 cents per pound, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.13% [1] - On September 18, the opening price for U.S. cotton was 67.21 cents per pound, with a closing price of 66.91 cents per pound, marking a decline of 0.52% [2] - The latest data from the CFTC indicates an increase in on-call unpriced sell orders to 50,420 contracts and a rise in unpriced buy orders to 114,730 contracts as of September 12 [2] Group 2 - The China Cotton Association projects a 1.8% year-on-year increase in national cotton planting area to 44.823 million acres for 2025, with favorable weather conditions contributing to improved crop yields [2] - The total cotton production in China is expected to reach 7.216 million tons, an 8.3% increase year-on-year, with an upward adjustment of 321,000 tons from the previous estimate, marking the highest output since 2013 [2] - On September 18, the average price for 3128 grade cotton delivered nationwide was 15,150 yuan per ton, a decrease of 110 yuan per ton, while the price for 32s pure cotton yarn remained stable at 21,509 yuan per ton [2]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年9月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC9月报：25/26年度产量2550万吨，消费2550万吨。USDA9月报：25/26年度产 量2562.2万吨，消费2587.2万吨，期末库存1592.5万吨。海关：8月纺织品服装出口265.4亿 美元，同比下降5%。7月份我国棉花进口5万吨，同比减少73.2%；棉纱进口11万吨，同比增加 15.38%。农村部9月25/26年度：产量636万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库存822万 吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价15300，基差1405（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the cotton industry is "oscillation", and the trading strategy suggests "wait - and - see" for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The old crop inventory shortage has been priced in, and the new crop's weak reality of a bumper harvest is being priced. Spinning capacity is in excess, and the high operating rate keeps the industrial demand for cotton firm. The national commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, while the national industrial inventory remains at a high level. The basis of Zhengzhou cotton has been oscillating this week, and the 1 - 5 month spread of Zhengzhou cotton has been stable. Xinjiang spinning has a slight loss, and inland spinning has a serious loss. The yarn - cotton price spread is running at a low level. The current absolute price of cotton is at a neutral - to - low level in the past four years. Domestically, the increasing domestic demand policies are beneficial for the long - term demand of domestic cotton, while internationally, the Sino - US trade negotiation is in a short - term deadlock, and the extension of the tariff exemption period has a negative impact on sentiment. In the short term, the demand side performs averagely, and the supply side remains loose, so the market may oscillate within a range [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bearish. The old crop inventory shortage has been priced, and the new crop's weak reality of a bumper harvest is being priced [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. Excess spinning capacity and a high operating rate keep the industrial demand for cotton firm [3] - **Inventory**: Neutral. The national commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, and the national industrial inventory remains at a high level [3] - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. This week, the basis of Zhengzhou cotton oscillated, with the Xinjiang double - 28 spot basis at 1000 - 1200, and the 1 - 5 month spread of Zhengzhou cotton was stable [3] - **Profit**: Bearish. Xinjiang spinning has a slight loss, inland spinning has a serious loss, and the yarn - cotton price spread is running at a low level [3] - **Valuation**: Bullish. The current absolute price is at a neutral - to - low level in the past four years [3] - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. Domestically, increasing domestic demand policies are beneficial for the long - term demand of domestic cotton, while internationally, the Sino - US trade negotiation is in a short - term deadlock, and the extension of the tariff exemption period has a negative impact on sentiment [3] - **Investment View**: Oscillation. In the short term, the demand side performs averagely, and the supply side remains loose, so the market may oscillate within a range [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait - and - see; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see [3] 3.2 Cotton Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Upstream Planting - The cotton planting area is expected to increase. The national cotton planting area in the first survey of 2025 is 4159.9 million mu, with a year - on - year increase of 1.88%, and the Xinjiang cotton planting area is 3678.8 million mu, with a year - on - year increase of 3.18% [8][9] - The cotton yield per mu in 2025 is estimated to be 149.9 kg nationwide and 158.5 kg in Xinjiang [10] 3.2.2 Mid - stream Inventory - The accumulation of finished product inventory has slowed down. Data on the raw material and finished product inventories of weaving and spinning mills are presented in the form of time - series charts [18][19][21] 3.2.3 Mid - stream Factory Load - The operating rate is declining. The operating rates of pure - cotton yarn mills and all - cotton grey fabric mills are presented in the form of time - series charts [25][26][27] 3.2.4 Mid - stream Spinning Mill Profit - Spinning mills are in the red. The immediate spinning profit and the yarn - cotton spot price spread are presented in the form of time - series charts [29][30][32] 3.2.5 Downstream Inventory - The downstream inventory is at a seasonal high. The inventories and finished product inventories of textile and clothing enterprises above the designated size are presented in the form of time - series charts [34][35][36] 3.2.6 Import and Export - Domestic cotton and cotton yarn import data are presented in the form of time - series charts. US cotton exports to different countries show different trends: exports to China and Pakistan are at a low level, exports to Vietnam have increased significantly year - on - year, and relevant data are presented in the form of time - series charts [39][41][50] 3.3 Cotton Capital - related Data 3.3.1 Zhengzhou Cotton Basis - The basis is oscillating at a high level. The basis of Zhengzhou cotton 09 and 01 contracts is presented in the form of time - series charts [63][64][65] 3.3.2 Zhengzhou Cotton Spread - The 09 - 01 and 01 - 05 spreads of Zhengzhou cotton are presented in the form of time - series charts [67] 3.3.3 Zhengzhou Cotton Position - The position of the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract is rapidly declining. The position data of the 09 and 01 contracts are presented in the form of time - series charts [69][70][72] 3.3.4 Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipt - The virtual - to - real ratio of the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract is rapidly declining. The total number of warehouse receipts and forecasts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the 09 contract are presented in the form of time - series charts [74][75] 3.3.5 Management Fund's Net Long Position in US Cotton - The net long position, long - position proportion of management funds in US cotton futures and options are presented in the form of time - series charts [81][83][84] 3.3.6 US Cotton Month Spread - The US cotton 12 - 03 month spread shows a "Deep Contango" pattern, and relevant data are presented in the form of time - series charts [86][87]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is currently in a neutral state, with the 2025/26 production and consumption estimated by ICAC at 25.5 million tons each, and by USDA at 25.392 million tons and 25.688 million tons respectively. The expected end - of - period inventory by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 8.23 million tons. The market shows mixed signals, with the basis being bullish, inventory bearish, and the market trend uncertain [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include reduced Sino - US tariffs and lower commercial inventory year - on - year, along with increased expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season. Bearish factors are the postponed trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. - As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market has significant differences. With new cotton about to be listed, the hedging pressure is increasing. The main 01 contract on the futures market continues to fluctuate around 14,000 [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different estimates for the 2025/26 cotton production, consumption, and inventory. For example, ICAC estimates production and consumption at 25.5 million tons each; USDA estimates production at 25.392 million tons, consumption at 25.688 million tons, and end - of - period inventory at 16.093 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a 0.1% year - on - year decrease. China's cotton imports in July were 50,000 tons, a 73.2% year - on - year decrease, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a 15.38% year - on - year increase. The Ministry of Agriculture estimates 2025/26 production at 6.25 million tons, imports at 1.4 million tons, consumption at 7.4 million tons, and end - of - period inventory at 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,446 yuan, with a basis of 1,446 yuan for the 01 contract, indicating a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's estimated end - of - period inventory for the 2025/26 period in August is 8.23 million tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, but the overall position is still long, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Expectations**: As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season arrives, the market has significant differences. With new cotton about to be listed, the hedging pressure is increasing, and the main 01 contract continues to fluctuate around 14,000 [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In August, the total global cotton production was 25.392 million tons, a 2% year - on - year decrease; consumption was 25.688 million tons, a 0.4% year - on - year increase; and end - of - period inventory was 16.093 million tons, a 2.4% year - on - year decrease [10][11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 period, global production is estimated at 25.9 million tons, a 1.6% year - on - year increase; consumption is 25.6 million tons, basically unchanged; end - of - period inventory is 17.1 million tons, a 1.6% year - on - year increase; and global trade volume is 9.7 million tons, a 3.9% year - on - year increase. The price forecast for the Cotlook A index is between 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [12]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Data for China**: For the 2025/26 period, the estimated production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and end - of - period inventory is 8.23 million tons. The domestic average price of 3128B cotton is expected to be between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [14]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trading of domestic cotton spot is sluggish, with a shortage of high - quality spot inventory. Spinning mills only make purchases based on rigid demand, and most sales basis of cotton spot remain stable [2]. - The trading in the domestic pure - cotton yarn market is average. Downstream customers report insufficient new orders and mainly make rigid - demand purchases. Prices are generally stable, with most spinning mills holding firm on prices and some offering promotional discounts. The market is highly concerned about subsequent orders in September and the marginal changes in the downstream [2]. - The ICE cotton futures declined yesterday due to concerns about the listing pressure of new US cotton crops and the strengthening of the US dollar [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2601 closed at 14,045 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.14%, and its night - session closing price was the same as the previous day. The trading volume was 338,147 lots, a decrease of 347,135 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 710,163 lots, a decrease of 5,361 lots [1]. - CY2511 closed at 19,995 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decrease of 0.12%, and its night - session closing price was 20,020 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.13%. The trading volume was 9,362 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 24,498 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - ICE US cotton 12 closed at 66.05 cents/pound yesterday with a decrease of 0.72% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 6,131, a decrease of 189 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 0 [1]. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 60, an increase of 3 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 6, an increase of 54 from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,297 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.13%. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,993 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.13% [1]. - The price in Shandong was 15,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.45%. The price in Hebei was 15,412 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.28% [1]. - The 3128B index was 15,412 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.43%. The international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 74.16 cents/pound, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,780 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,766 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.15% [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The CF1 - 5 spread was 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Based on TTEB information, the overall trading of cotton spot is sluggish. High - quality spot inventory is scarce, and spinning mills only make rigid - demand purchases. Most sales basis of cotton spot remain stable. For example, the mainstream lower sales basis of 2024/25 Nanjiang Kashi machine - picked 3129/29B with impurities within 3.5 is in the range of CF01 + 1100 - 1200, and more sales basis are above CF01 + 1200, for inland self - pick - up. A small amount of 2024/25 Beijiang local machine - picked 4129/29 - 30B with impurities within 3 was traded at around CF01 + 1400 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: According to TTEB information, the trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is average. Downstream customers report insufficient new orders and mainly make rigid - demand purchases. Prices are generally stable, with most spinning mills holding firm on prices and some offering promotional discounts. The market is highly concerned about subsequent orders in September and the marginal changes in the downstream [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures declined yesterday due to concerns about the listing pressure of new US cotton crops and the strengthening of the US dollar [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, with the value range of trend intensity being an integer within the [- 2,2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: September 3, 2025 [2] - Report industry: Cotton [1] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market review: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted. The latest cotton price index for grade 328 was 15,479 yuan/ton, up 151 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream sales basis quotes for machine-picked cotton in northern Xinjiang and Kashgar, southern Xinjiang were in different ranges. The spot trading of cotton improved slightly after the sharp decline in the futures market, and the inventory of many cotton merchants was low. The expected stable and increasing output of new cotton brought some long-term pressure. There were sporadic hand-picked seed cotton purchases at the end of August and early September, with purchase prices ranging from 7.25 to 7.35 yuan/kg. The downstream demand improved marginally since August, and the finished product inventory of spinning mills and weaving factories decreased slightly [7][8] - Operation suggestions: The short-term sentiment was weak, and the market was mainly in a state of volatile adjustment [8] Group 3: Industry News - In Hutubi County, 869,000 mu of cotton is gradually boll-opening. The county's 24 cotton purchase and processing enterprises have nearly completed the overhaul of production equipment, and the purchase funds and personnel are ready. It is expected to start purchasing new cotton around September 20, and relevant departments will strengthen supervision during the purchase period [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1-5 spread, CF5-9 spread, CF9-1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume [16][17][18]