Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve believes that reserves remain ample and does not consider itself particularly close to halting quantitative tightening (QT) or balance sheet reduction [1] Group 1 - Slowing the pace of balance sheet reduction indicates a more gradual approach to monetary policy [1] - The Federal Reserve is fully prepared to provide dollars to overseas markets [1]

美国商务部长卢特尼克：对美元并不担忧。 ...

美国总统特朗普：这周美元贬值并不重要，美元将会上涨，并且会比以往更强劲。 ...

美联储施密德：认为美元是王者，也应该始终是王者。 ...

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - The new tariffs proposed by Trump could generate additional revenue of $600-700 billion per year, requiring the average effective tariff rate (AETR) to rise from 2.2% to 21%[7] - If the tariffs are fully borne by households, the average loss per American household could be $5,400, approximately 5% of median household income[9] - If the tariffs are shared equally between households and corporations, household income could decline by 2.5% and corporate after-tax profits could drop by 15%[9] Group 2: Economic Objectives and Comparisons - The economic objectives of the new tariffs include increasing federal revenue and promoting the return of manufacturing, differing from the 2018 focus on trade balance[10] - By Q4 2024, manufacturing's share of non-residential fixed asset investment is expected to rise to 5.7%, up from 2.7% five years ago[10] Group 3: Economic Growth and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7% due to tariff impacts, while only slightly adjusting the unemployment rate[12] - As of April 7, 2025, S&P 500 EPS forecasts have been revised down by 4.1% for Q1 and 2.5% for Q2, indicating a cautious market outlook[16] Group 4: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Fed's monetary policy aims to maintain a 2% inflation rate, with actual wages and long-term inflation expectations being critical factors in policy decisions[21] - As of April 7, 2025, the 5-year inflation swap rate is at 2.3%, indicating stable long-term inflation expectations[23] Group 5: Asset Allocation and Market Trends - High tariffs are expected to create both demand and supply shocks, influencing asset allocation strategies, with potential shifts favoring commodities over financial assets in a stagflation scenario[26] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury term premium is currently at 43 basis points, significantly lower than historical averages, indicating reduced demand for U.S. debt amid tariff-induced inflation risks[29]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The interplay between tariffs, AI, and the dollar is crucial for understanding the economic dynamics between China and the US, with AI trends attracting capital inflows and tariffs impacting trade balances [2][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in sustaining financial account inflows for the US, while China's economic model relies on a surplus in the current account but faces capital outflows [10][11] Summary by Sections Section 1: US Economic Dynamics - The US has maintained a long-term current account deficit while achieving financial account surpluses, with AI trends significantly attracting capital inflows and supporting the dollar [2][3] - Historical data shows that the US current account deficit peaked at -6.3% of GDP in Q3 2006, while financial account surplus reached 7.2% of GDP [2] - The report highlights that the AI narrative has become a key driver of capital inflows since 2023, creating a positive feedback loop for the US economy [10][11] Section 2: China Economic Dynamics - China has experienced a long-term current account surplus since joining the WTO in 2001, but has faced increasing financial account deficits due to capital outflows [6][39] - The report notes that despite a surplus in the current account, the lack of effective capital inflows has hindered the transformation of foreign exchange reserves into domestic currency [41][15] - The need for China to stimulate domestic demand and attract capital inflows is emphasized, especially in light of external pressures from tariffs and global economic conditions [11][12] Section 3: Future Outlook - The report suggests that 2026 will be a critical year for both AI trends and tariff policies, with potential implications for capital flows and economic stability in both the US and China [12][10] - The ability of the US to continue attracting capital will largely depend on the sustainability of its AI advantage, while China must focus on structural reforms to enhance its economic resilience [11][12]

美元意外大跌。 全球汇率市场风云突变，美元指数连续两日大跌超0.9%后，今日再度跳水，跌破105关口，创去年11月12日以 来新低。这让不少押注美元在"贸易战"下有望走强的投资者措手不及。 有分析称，投资者担忧贸易战升级将削弱美国经济，动摇美元避险地位。另外，越来越多的投资者押注美联储 将在未来几个月内恢复降息，美元可能进一步走弱。 值得一提的是，华尔街对美元的前景展望正在发生重大转变。其中，德意志银行在最新发布的报告中表示，随 着全球市场适应新的地缘政治秩序，美元可能会失去其传统的避险地位；Pepperstone策略师迈克尔·布朗表 示，美元已从"最好的货币"变为"不想碰的货币"；加拿大帝国商业银行资本市场外汇策略主管Sarah Ying也表 示，市场正从系统性看涨美元转向看跌美元。 美元大跌 在特朗普掀起"贸易战"的背景下，美元意外大跌。 本周以来，美元指数持续下挫，周一大跌0.96%后，周二再度大幅收跌0.94%。今日，美元指数再度跳水，跌 破105关口，创去年11月12日以来新低。 市场分析称，投资者担忧贸易战升级将削弱美国经济，动摇美元避险地位。 与此同时，华尔街对美元的前景展望也正在发生重大转变。 ...