Group 1 - The international gold price increased due to the decline in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, as investors digested last month's consumer price increase data and awaited further clarity on President Trump's trade policies [1] - The US dollar index fell from a one-month high, making gold more attractive to holders of other currencies, while rising US inflation strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve would maintain current interest rates for a longer period [1] - The probability of a rate cut in September dropped from nearly 60% before the data release to about 52% [1] Group 2 - The gold market showed signs of weakness, with the first resistance level at 3343-45, but the lowest point reached was only 3333, indicating limited downward momentum [3] - The current trend remains unchanged, with a short bearish outlook retained, but upcoming data releases may lead to fluctuations in gold prices [3] - The hourly moving averages have flattened, indicating a stalemate in short-term bullish and bearish trends, with key resistance levels at 3343 and 3355 [3][5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-16 通胀符合预期，贵⾦属短线延续震荡 美国6⽉CPI数据同环⽐皆有回升，但幅度符合预期，基数效应较低、能源 价格阶段性回升以及关税传导的部分体现共同推升通胀，数据公布后降息 预期变动不⼤，美元及美债收益率短线⾛⾼，对贵⾦属价格形成⼀定压 制。短期⻩⾦预计维持区间震荡，中⻓期看多观点不变。⽩银在40美元关 ⼝受阻后，短线震荡回落。中期维持对⽩银趋势看多，弹性谨慎的观点。 重点资讯： 1）美国6月未季调CPI同比升2.7%，为2月以来新高，预期升2. 7%，前值升2.4%；季调后CPI环比升0.3%，预期升0.3%，前值升0. 1%。未季调核心CPI同比升2.9%，预期升3.0%，前值升2.8%；季调后 核心CPI环比升0.2%，预期升0.3%，前值升0.1%。 2）美国7月纽约联储制造业指数5.5，预期-9，前值-16。其中，制造 业就业指数9.2，前值增4.7；制造业新订单指数2.0，前值-14.2； 制造业物价获得指数25.7，前值26.6。 3）美国财政部长贝森特建议，美联储主席鲍威尔在2026年5月卸任时 同时 ...

金融博客零对冲：美元空头开始投降。 ...

Trade Relations - Trump may discuss tariffs with Brazil at some point [1] - Brazil is not obligated to continue using the US dollar for trade [1] - Brazil is interested in creating a trade currency for international trade [1] - Brazil advocates for countries to trade in their own currencies [1] - Brazil calls on world leaders to reduce reliance on the US dollar in international trade [1]

Geopolitical & Economic Strategy - Brazilian President Lula questions the necessity of using USD for international trade and advocates for alternative trade currencies among nations [1] - Brazil is interested in creating trade currencies for conducting business with its own currency [1] - President Lula calls on BRICS nations to develop their own alternative currency for trade [1] - Brazil will prioritize tariff negotiations and, if ineffective, may impose a 50% tariff on US exports to Brazil under the "Economic Reciprocity Law" [1] De-dollarization - President Lula questions why all countries' trade must be based on the USD and who decided the USD should be the currency after the gold standard [1] - The call for reducing reliance on the USD in international trade is a key focus [1]

金十数据7月11日讯，美联储理事沃勒周四表示，稳定币将增强支付系统的竞争，这是一件好事。沃勒 在达拉斯联邦储备银行的一场活动上表示，稳定币的兴起将使许多类型的支付变得更便宜、更快 捷。"作为一名自由市场资本主义经济学家，我的目标是通过支付领域的竞争来降低家庭、消费者和企 业的成本，"沃勒说。他还表示，稳定币可能会抑制对美国纸币的需求，但会增强对美元的总体需求。 美联储理事沃勒：稳定币可提振对美元的总体需求 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding interest rate outlook have led to an increase in gold prices, with analysts optimistic about gold's future prospects [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's June policy meeting indicate disagreements among officials about the future of interest rates [1] - If inflation data continues to cool, the likelihood of a rate cut in September will become more apparent, potentially weakening the dollar and paving the way for further increases in gold prices [1] Group 2: Economic Conditions and Gold - Ongoing trade tensions are casting a shadow over global economic growth prospects, with new tariffs expected to raise import costs and increase inflationary pressures [1] - This situation may enhance gold's role as a hedge against macroeconomic instability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The former president of the Asian Development Bank, Masatsugu Asakawa, stated that the U.S. dollar is more susceptible to being sold off, making it unlikely for Japan to accept the U.S. request to support the yen [1] Group 1 - The U.S. has made requests to Japan regarding the support of the yen [1] - Asakawa emphasizes the volatility of the U.S. dollar in the current market [1] - Japan's stance is influenced by the potential risks associated with dollar fluctuations [1]

特朗普：如果人们想挑战美元，他们就会付出代价。 ...

美国财长贝森特：（就美元问题）可能意味着其他货币正在走强。 ...