格隆汇8月30日｜据华尔街日报，8月，当经济学家对特朗普不停对美联储升级压力感到束手无策时，美 国市场发出了一个不同的信息：让好时光来吧。周五，人工智能相关股票在长周末之前遭遇抛售，但这 并不足以影响股市的月度涨势。标普500指数8月份上涨1.9%，纳指上涨1.6%。道琼斯指数上涨3.2%。 疲弱的经济数据和迄今为止关税对价格的温和影响，让投资者对美联储将在下个月的会议上降息更有信 心。与此同时，特朗普努力让美联储的官员都支持低利率，加剧了人们对进一步降息可能即将到来的希 望。经济学家警告说，一个更容易受白宫影响的美联储更有可能过度降息，最终推高通胀。如果说8月 份的表现有何暗示的话，那就是股市将这种可能性视为明天的担忧。 ...

2025.08. 30 本文字数：1232，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 葛唯尔 就在美联储理事库克诉美国总统特朗普的首场听证会召开前夕，前者再陷房产申报争议。 稍早前，库克已就特朗普将其解职一事向华盛顿特区联邦法院正式提起诉讼，并申请初步禁令，允许 其在案件审理期间继续履行美联储理事职责。 库克称，特朗普对其罢免的举动"非法"，且是对美联储独立性的极大攻击。 库克在诉状中称，特朗普此举的真正原因是"为了迅速罢免她，腾出一个（美联储理事）席位，并推 进他的议程，以破坏美联储的独立性。" 该案首场听证会将于当地时间29日上午10点举行。 第三起房产虚假申报？ 根据普尔特向美国司法部部长帕姆·邦迪递交的第二封刑事转介函，库克于2021年4月7日为其位于马 萨诸塞州剑桥市的公寓办理了一笔15年期抵押贷款，并将其申报为"第二居所"。 当地时间8月28日，美国联邦住房金融署署长普尔特（Bill Pulte）在社交媒体上发文称，库克在担 任美联储理事期间，在第三处房产贷款和政府申报中存在虚假陈述。 图源：社交媒体X 然而，仅8个月后，库克在向美国政府提交的一份道德规范表格中，却将该处房产列为"投资/出租房 产" ...

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump raises questions about the President's authority to remove a Fed official and the potential impact on the Fed's independence [1][3]. Group 1: Dismissal and Legal Implications - Trump dismissed Cook citing alleged mortgage fraud, but Cook has filed a lawsuit claiming the dismissal is unlawful [1]. - The allegations against Cook involve declaring two properties as her "primary residence" to obtain better mortgage rates, which has been referred to the Justice Department for investigation [1]. - Legal experts suggest that the Trump administration must prove Cook's alleged misconduct in court, which could lead to a prolonged legal battle potentially reaching the Supreme Court [1][3]. Group 2: Impact on Federal Reserve Independence - The rationale for Cook's dismissal does not directly relate to her ability to perform her duties as a Fed Governor, indicating a potential misuse of presidential power [2][3]. - Trump's actions could set a precedent for presidential influence over the Fed, undermining its independence and stability, which is crucial for U.S. monetary policy [3]. - If Trump successfully removes Cook, it could allow him to nominate two governors, further increasing presidential influence over the Fed [3]. Group 3: Economic Challenges - The potential erosion of the Fed's independence may exacerbate existing challenges in balancing employment and price stability, leading to greater economic uncertainty in the U.S. [4].

Core Viewpoint - A political conflict between the U.S. President and the Federal Reserve has significantly influenced the surge in gold prices, with gold surpassing $3,400 per ounce, marking a new high in over a month [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On August 28, gold prices rose sharply, reaching a peak of $3,423.02 per ounce, driven by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve due to President Trump's attempt to dismiss a Fed governor [1][5]. - Silver prices also increased, reflecting a broader bullish trend in the precious metals market [1]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool indicates an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which is expected to lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [1][3]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - President Trump's attempt to remove Fed governor Cook has raised concerns about the erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence, prompting a lawsuit from Cook asserting the President's lack of authority to dismiss her [5]. - Analysts suggest that the pressure from the President may lead to expectations of accelerated rate cuts, providing strong support for gold prices [5]. Group 3: Global Central Bank Activity - Central banks worldwide are increasing their gold and silver reserves as part of a strategic adjustment, moving away from the "American exceptionalism" narrative [6]. Group 4: Future Price Projections - Market attention is focused on upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [8]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a mid-2026 gold price forecast of $4,000 per ounce, while Morgan Stanley suggests gold could approach $3,675 per ounce by year-end if the Fed's independence remains threatened [8]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to remain cautious and look for buying opportunities during market pullbacks, as the current market shows signs of being overbought [9]. - Various investment tools are recommended, including gold ETFs for short-term trading and physical gold for long-term investment [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the rising U.S. Treasury yields and the implications of President Trump's attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, which is causing market speculation and concern about the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][9][10] - As of August 29, 2023, U.S. Treasury yields are mostly up, with the 2-year yield rising by 0.4 basis points to 3.639%, the 10-year yield increasing by 2.5 basis points to 4.232%, and the 30-year yield up by 3.9 basis points to 4.911% [1] - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds has widened to 65 basis points, the widest since April 23, 2025, while the spread between the 2-year and 30-year bonds has widened to 132 basis points, the widest since January 2022 [3] Group 2 - The upcoming economic data includes the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index for July, which is a key inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, expected to show a monthly increase of 0.2% and a year-over-year increase of 2.6% [5][6] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 2023 has been revised to an annualized rate of 3.3%, up from the initial estimate of 3%, indicating a significant rebound from a 0.5% decline in Q1 [6] - Economists warn that the current GDP report may not accurately reflect economic health, with anticipated negative impacts from import tariffs becoming more evident in the coming quarters [7] Group 3 - The legal battle surrounding Trump's attempt to dismiss Cook is unprecedented, with implications for the Federal Reserve's independence, which has not been challenged since the Nixon administration [9][10] - Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen emphasized the dangers of undermining the Fed's independence, while current Fed officials are calling for potential interest rate cuts to prevent labor market deterioration [10] - The Treasury Department plans to issue $291 billion in bonds next week, indicating ongoing government financing activities [12]

2025.08. 29 本文字数：2350，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 美国总统特朗普与美联储的大战，又在进一步升级。 多位接受第一财经记者采访的法律专家和业内学者表示，与此前对美联储主席鲍威尔的指控所不同的 是，此次在美联储理事库克（Lisa Cook）身上，特朗普及其盟友看起来找到了一些证据，且并非彻 底空穴来风。 就29日美联储理事库克诉美国总统特朗普的首场听证会召开前夕，美国联邦住房金融局局长普尔特 （Bill Pulte）再次甩出新证据，并向库克发出新的刑事指控，此举加大了特朗普政府就抵押贷款欺 诈指控对这位美联储理事的施压力度。 目前特朗普方面拿出的证据够硬核么？库克是否能够保住职位？ 英国杜伦大学法学院副院长、跨国法教授兼全球政策研究所联合主任杜明教授对第一财经记者表 示，"谁主张，谁举证"。此次，"特朗普政府方面举证。"杜明表示，"因故（for course）"这类条 款是否可以设立，有赖于评估证据的真实性和有效性。 美联储理事库克（来源：第一财经） 此前特朗普在25日以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由解除库克职务。 值得注意的是，特朗普提名的美国联邦住房金融局（FHFA）局长普尔 ...

Market Overview - The US dollar index experienced fluctuations this week, initially rising before declining due to President Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, raising concerns about the Fed's independence and interest rate cuts [1] - Spot gold benefited from the uncertainty surrounding the Fed and French politics, returning above the $3400 mark, potentially marking a second consecutive week of gains [1] - International oil prices are expected to rise for the second consecutive week, influenced by ExxonMobil's potential return to Russian projects and the diminishing likelihood of a meeting between Russian and Ukrainian leaders [1] - Bitcoin saw a significant drop below $110,000, likely marking a second consecutive week of losses, while Ethereum outperformed with a 17% increase over the past 30 days [1] Investment Bank Insights - Morgan Stanley predicts the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in March, June, September, and December 2026, targeting a final rate range of 2.75%-3.0% [4] - Deutsche Bank highlights risks to the dollar's structure due to rising US debt and concerns over the Fed's independence [4] - UBS warns that the politicization of the Fed could lead to increased economic risks and higher risk premiums on US debt [4] - HSBC raised its year-end target for the Shanghai Composite Index to 4000 points, citing ample liquidity [4] Major Events - Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook marks the first time a sitting president has removed a Fed official, with Cook planning to challenge the legality of her dismissal in court [5][6] - The Fed's upcoming meetings and potential rate cuts are under scrutiny, with officials indicating support for a 25 basis point cut in September [7][8] - The ongoing conflict in Gaza is expected to reach a decisive conclusion within two to three weeks, although the situation remains complex and uncertain [9][10] - The US government has permanently eliminated the tariff exemption for packages valued under $800, expected to generate an additional $10 billion in annual tariff revenue [16] Company-Specific Developments - Cambricon Technologies surpassed Kweichow Moutai in stock price, becoming the "king of A-shares" with a market capitalization exceeding 600 billion yuan, following a significant turnaround in its financial performance [22][23] - Nvidia's second-quarter earnings exceeded expectations, but the lack of sales in the Chinese market was a notable concern, with third-quarter revenue guidance falling short of some analysts' forecasts [24] - Meituan's stock plummeted nearly 13% after reporting an 89% drop in net profit due to intense competition in the food delivery market, leading to downgrades from several banks [25] - Musk's xAI filed a lawsuit against Apple and OpenAI, alleging collusion to monopolize the AI market, while SpaceX successfully completed its tenth test flight of the Starship [26][27]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold investment rating: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Silver investment rating: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight precious metals showed a strong sideways movement. The revised annualized quarterly rate of the US GDP in the second quarter was 3.3%, exceeding expectations and the previous value, and the weekly initial jobless claims were 229,000, remaining at a low level. Although the economy is resilient, Trump's dismissal of a Fed governor has led to market concerns about the Fed's independence, which dominated market sentiment. International gold and silver are testing the key resistance at the upper edge of the recent sideways range, and once broken, the upward movement may be sustainable. Attention should be paid to the US PCE data tonight [1] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Content Fed - related - Cook officially sued Trump over the dismissal, with Powell also being a defendant. Cook's lawyer said the mortgage dispute may be due to a "paperwork error." A US judge will hold a hearing on Cook's lawsuit against Trump this Friday, and the case is expected to end up in the Supreme Court. Trump - nominated Fed governor nominee Milan is expected to be confirmed before the Fed's September decision. Fed governor Waller supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut at the September meeting and expects further rate cuts in the next 3 - 6 months. The second - in - command of the IMF said the market still believes in the Fed's independence, but the actual risks cannot be ignored. ECB Governing Council member Rehn said Trump's pressure on the Fed's independence may have a major global impact on financial markets and the real economy [2] Tariff - related - The EU proposed a legislative proposal to cancel some US goods tariffs to encourage the US to lower auto tariffs. India is expected to increase its September imports of Russian oil by 10% - 20% month - on - month, regardless of US tariff threats. US officials said that in the next six months, a unified tariff of $80 - $200 will be imposed on packages sent to the US, and specific tariff rates will be applied thereafter [2] Russia - Ukraine situation - related - German Chancellor Merz said Zelensky and Putin will not meet. US media reported that Europe proposed a 40 - kilometer front - line buffer zone for Russia and Ukraine [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury market remains relatively calm despite increasing criticism from President Trump towards the Federal Reserve, indicating growing investor concerns about potential interference in central bank decisions [1][3] - The 10-year breakeven rate reached a six-month high of 2.46% before falling to 2.41%, driven by a decline in TIPS yields to a four-month low of 1.81% due to increased demand for risk hedging [1][3] - Since April, inflation expectations among bond investors have been rising, nearing the peak of 2.52% reached in February, as Trump continues to pressure the Fed for interest rate cuts [3][4] Group 2 - The potential appointment of another Federal Reserve governor by the government could lead to a majority of Trump-appointed officials on the Fed board, raising concerns about the independence of the central bank [4] - The yield spread between 30-year and 5-year Treasury bonds has widened to the highest level since 2001, reflecting a market shift towards a potential policy paradigm change that may push the economy towards overheating [4]

Core Viewpoint - Rising bond yields exert significant political pressure, influencing leaders and their policies, as evidenced by recent events in the UK and the U.S. [1] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has increased from 3.8% to 4.2% over the past year, indicating a growing concern among investors regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [2] - The gap between the 2-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields has reached its widest level since January 2022, signaling investor anxiety about long-term inflation threats and the erosion of Federal Reserve independence [4] - Current bond yields remain below the highs reached after Trump's "liberation day" tariffs, suggesting a more orderly increase despite rising long-term yields [5] Group 2: Political Implications - Trump's attempts to undermine the Federal Reserve's independence, including threats to dismiss board members, raise concerns about potential political capture of the institution [2][3] - If Trump succeeds in weakening the Federal Reserve's independence, it could lead to higher expected inflation, impacting various loan rates and increasing government costs [3] - The political risks associated with rising long-term borrowing costs could adversely affect Trump's voter base, particularly as mortgage rates are linked to long-term bonds [4] Group 3: Market Reactions and Sentiment - Investors are increasingly worried about the politicalization of the Federal Reserve, with concerns that cheap funding could fuel future inflation [3] - The market's current calmness may be attributed to the recent increase in government revenue from tariffs, which has alleviated fears regarding the fiscal situation [5][6] - The outcome of the legal case involving Federal Reserve board member Cook could significantly impact market stability and the future of the Federal Reserve's independence [6]